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Jon A. Wellner

Publications and source records attributed to Jon A. Wellner.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
arXiv2009

Estimation of a discrete monotone distribution

We study and compare three estimators of a discrete monotone distribution: (a) the (raw) empirical estimator; (b) the "method of rearrangements" estimator; and (c) the maximum likelihood estimator. We show that the maximum likelihood estimator strictly dominates both the rearrangement and empirical estimators in cases when the distribution has intervals of constancy. For example, when the distribution is uniform on $\{0, ..., y \}$, the asymptotic risk of the method of rearrangements estimator (in squared $\ell_2$ norm) is $y/(y+1)$, while the asymptotic risk of the MLE is of order $(\log y)/(y+1)$. For strictly decreasing distributions, the estimators are asymptotically equivalent.

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arXiv2009

On the Grenander estimator at zero

We establish limit theory for the Grenander estimator of a monotone density near zero. In particular we consider the situation when the true density $f_0$ is unbounded at zero, with different rates of growth to infinity. In the course of our study we develop new switching relations by use of tools from convex analysis. The theory is applied to a problem involving mixtures.

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arXiv2009

Limit distribution theory for maximum likelihood estimation of a log-concave density

We find limiting distributions of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a log-concave density, that is, a density of the form $f_0=\expφ_0$ where $φ_0$ is a concave function on $\mathbb{R}$. The pointwise limiting distributions depend on the second and third derivatives at 0 of $H_k$, the "lower invelope" of an integrated Brownian motion process minus a drift term depending on the number of vanishing derivatives of $φ_0=\log f_0$ at the point of interest. We also establish the limiting distribution of the resulting estimator of the mode $M(f_0)$ and establish a new local asymptotic minimax lower bound which shows the optimality of our mode estimator in terms of both rate of convergence and dependence of constants on population values.

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arXiv2009

Nemirovski's Inequalities Revisited

An important tool for statistical research are moment inequalities for sums of independent random vectors. Nemirovski and coworkers (1983, 2000) derived one particular type of such inequalities: For certain Banach spaces $(\B,\|\cdot\|)$ there exists a constant $K = K(\B,\|\cdot\|)$ such that for arbitrary independent and centered random vectors $X_1, X_2, ..., X_n \in \B$, their sum $S_n$ satisfies the inequality $ E \|S_n \|^2 \le K \sum_{i=1}^n E \|X_i\|^2$. We present and compare three different approaches to obtain such inequalities: Nemirovski's results are based on deterministic inequalities for norms. Another possible vehicle are type and cotype inequalities, a tool from probability theory on Banach spaces. Finally, we use a truncation argument plus Bernstein's inequality to obtain another version of the moment inequality above. Interestingly, all three approaches have their own merits.

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arXiv2008

Inconsistency of the MLE for the joint distribution of interval censored survival times and continuous marks

This paper considers the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the joint distribution function of an interval censored survival time and a continuous mark variable. We provide a new explicit formula for the MLE in this problem. We use this formula and the mark specific cumulative hazard function of Huang and Louis (1998) to obtain the almost sure limit of the MLE. This result leads to necessary and sufficient conditions for consistency of the MLE which imply that the MLE is inconsistent in general. We show that the inconsistency can be repaired by discretizing the marks. Our theoretical results are supported by simulations.

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arXiv2008

Current status data with competing risks: Consistency and rates of Convergence of the MLE

We study nonparametric estimation of the sub-distribution functions for current status data with competing risks. Our main interest is in the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), and for comparison we also consider a simpler ``naive estimator.'' Both types of estimators were studied by Jewell, van der Laan and Henneman [Biometrika (2003) 90 183--197], but little was known about their large sample properties. We have started to fill this gap, by proving that the estimators are consistent and converge globally and locally at rate $n^{1/3}$. We also show that this local rate of convergence is optimal in a minimax sense. The proof of the local rate of convergence of the MLE uses new methods, and relies on a rate result for the sum of the MLEs of the sub-distribution functions which holds uniformly on a fixed neighborhood of a point. Our results are used in Groeneboom, Maathuis and Wellner [Ann. Statist. (2008) 36 1064--1089] to obtain the local limiting distributions of the estimators.

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arXiv2008

Current status data with competing risks: Limiting distribution of the MLE

We study nonparametric estimation for current status data with competing risks. Our main interest is in the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), and for comparison we also consider a simpler ``naive estimator.'' Groeneboom, Maathuis and Wellner [Ann. Statist. (2008) 36 1031--1063] proved that both types of estimators converge globally and locally at rate $n^{1/3}$. We use these results to derive the local limiting distributions of the estimators. The limiting distribution of the naive estimator is given by the slopes of the convex minorants of correlated Brownian motion processes with parabolic drifts. The limiting distribution of the MLE involves a new self-induced limiting process. Finally, we present a simulation study showing that the MLE is superior to the naive estimator in terms of mean squared error, both for small sample sizes and asymptotically.

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arXiv2008

Estimation of a $k$-monotone density: limit distribution theory and the spline connection

We study the asymptotic behavior of the Maximum Likelihood and Least Squares Estimators of a $k$-monotone density $g_0$ at a fixed point $x_0$ when $k>2$. We find that the $j$th derivative of the estimators at $x_0$ converges at the rate $n^{-(k-j)/(2k+1)}$ for $j=0,...,k-1$. The limiting distribution depends on an almost surely uniquely defined stochastic process $H_k$ that stays above (below) the $k$-fold integral of Brownian motion plus a deterministic drift when $k$ is even (odd). Both the MLE and LSE are known to be splines of degree $k-1$ with simple knots. Establishing the order of the random gap $τ_n^+-τ_n^-$, where $τ_n^{\pm}$ denote two successive knots, is a key ingredient of the proof of the main results. We show that this ``gap problem'' can be solved if a conjecture about the upper bound on the error in a particular Hermite interpolation via odd-degree splines holds.

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arXiv2007

Two likelihood-based semiparametric estimation methods for panel count data with covariates

We consider estimation in a particular semiparametric regression model for the mean of a counting process with ``panel count'' data. The basic model assumption is that the conditional mean function of the counting process is of the form $E\{\mathbb{N}(t)|Z\}=\exp(β_0^TZ)Λ_0(t)$ where $Z$ is a vector of covariates and $Λ_0$ is the baseline mean function. The ``panel count'' observation scheme involves observation of the counting process $\mathbb{N}$ for an individual at a random number $K$ of random time points; both the number and the locations of these time points may differ across individuals. We study semiparametric maximum pseudo-likelihood and maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters $(β_0,Λ_0)$ derived on the basis of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process assumption. The pseudo-likelihood estimator is fairly easy to compute, while the maximum likelihood estimator poses more challenges from the computational perspective. We study asymptotic properties of both estimators assuming that the proportional mean model holds, but dropping the Poisson process assumption used to derive the estimators. In particular we establish asymptotic normality for the estimators of the regression parameter $β_0$ under appropriate hypotheses. The results show that our estimation procedures are robust in the sense that the estimators converge to the truth regardless of the underlying counting process.

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arXiv2007

Goodness-of-fit tests via phi-divergences

A unified family of goodness-of-fit tests based on $ϕ$-divergences is introduced and studied. The new family of test statistics $S_n(s)$ includes both the supremum version of the Anderson--Darling statistic and the test statistic of Berk and Jones [Z. Wahrsch. Verw. Gebiete 47 (1979) 47--59] as special cases ($s=2$ and $s=1$, resp.). We also introduce integral versions of the new statistics. We show that the asymptotic null distribution theory of Berk and Jones [Z. Wahrsch. Verw. Gebiete 47 (1979) 47--59] and Wellner and Koltchinskii [High Dimensional Probability III (2003) 321--332. Birkhäuser, Basel] for the Berk--Jones statistic applies to the whole family of statistics $S_n(s)$ with $s\in[-1,2]$. On the side of power behavior, we study the test statistics under fixed alternatives and give extensions of the ``Poisson boundary'' phenomena noted by Berk and Jones for their statistic. We also extend the results of Donoho and Jin [Ann. Statist. 32 (2004) 962--994] by showing that all our new tests for $s\in[-1,2]$ have the same ``optimal detection boundary'' for normal shift mixture alternatives as Tukey's ``higher-criticism'' statistic and the Berk--Jones statistic.

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arXiv2007

Asymptotics: Particles, Processes and Inverse Problems. Festschrift for Piet Groeneboom

In September 2006, Piet Groeneboom officially retired as professor of statistics at Delft University of Technology and the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam. He did so by delivering his farewell lecture `Summa Cogitatio' ([42] in Piet's publication list) in the Aula of the university in Delft. To celebrate Piet's impressive contributions to statistics and probability, the workshop `Asymptotics: particles, processes and inverse problems' was held from July 10 until July 14, 2006, at the Lorentz Center in Leiden. Many leading researchers in the fields of probability and statistics gave talks at this workshop, and it became a memorable event for all who attended, including the organizers and Piet himself. This volume serves as a Festschrift for Piet Groeneboom. It contains papers that were presented at the workshop as well as some other contributions, and it represents the state of the art in the areas in statistics and probability where Piet has been (and still is) most active. Furthermore, a short CV of Piet Groeneboom and a list of his publications are included.

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arXiv2007

A Kiefer--Wolfowitz theorem for convex densities

Kiefer and Wolfowitz [Z. Wahrsch. Verw. Gebiete 34 (1976) 73--85] showed that if $F$ is a strictly curved concave distribution function (corresponding to a strictly monotone density $f$), then the Maximum Likelihood Estimator $\hat{F}_n$, which is, in fact, the least concave majorant of the empirical distribution function $\mathbb {F}_n$, differs from the empirical distribution function in the uniform norm by no more than a constant times $(n^{-1}\log n)^{2/3}$ almost surely. We review their result and give an updated version of their proof. We prove a comparable theorem for the class of distribution functions $F$ with convex decreasing densities $f$, but with the maximum likelihood estimator $\hat{F}_n$ of $F$ replaced by the least squares estimator $\widetilde{F}_n$: if $X_1,..., X_n$ are sampled from a distribution function $F$ with strictly convex density $f$, then the least squares estimator $\widetilde{F}_n$ of $F$ and the empirical distribution function $\mathbb {F}_n$ differ in the uniform norm by no more than a constant times $(n^{-1}\log n)^{3/5}$ almost surely. The proofs rely on bounds on the interpolation error for complete spline interpolation due to Hall [J. Approximation Theory 1 (1968) 209--218], Hall and Meyer [J. Approximation Theory 16 (1976) 105--122], building on earlier work by Birkhoff and de Boor [J. Math. Mech. 13 (1964) 827--835]. These results, which are crucial for the developments here, are all nicely summarized and exposited in de Boor [A Practical Guide to Splines (2001) Springer, New York].

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arXiv2007

Empirical processes indexed by estimated functions

We consider the convergence of empirical processes indexed by functions that depend on an estimated parameter $η$ and give several alternative conditions under which the ``estimated parameter'' $η_n$ can be replaced by its natural limit $η_0$ uniformly in some other indexing set $Θ$. In particular we reconsider some examples treated by Ghoudi and Remillard [Asymptotic Methods in Probability and Statistics (1998) 171--197, Fields Inst. Commun. 44 (2004) 381--406]. We recast their examples in terms of empirical process theory, and provide an alternative general view which should be of wide applicability.

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arXiv2007

Marshall's lemma for convex density estimation

Marshall's [Nonparametric Techniques in Statistical Inference (1970) 174--176] lemma is an analytical result which implies $\sqrt{n}$--consistency of the distribution function corresponding to the Grenander [Skand. Aktuarietidskr. 39 (1956) 125--153] estimator of a non-decreasing probability density. The present paper derives analogous results for the setting of convex densities on $[0,\infty)$.

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arXiv2005

Entropy Estimate For High Dimensional Monotonic Functions

We establish upper and lower bounds for the metric entropy and bracketing entropy of the class of $d$-dimensional bounded monotonic functions under $L^p$ norms. It is interesting to see that both the metric entropy and bracketing entropy have different behaviors for $p d/(d-1)$. We apply the new bounds for bracketing entropy to establish a global rate of convergence of the MLE of a $d$-dimensional monotone density.

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arXiv2005

Weighted Likelihood for Semiparametric Models and Two-phase Stratified Samples, with Application to Cox Regression

Weighted likelihood, in which one solves Horvitz-Thompson or inverse probability weighted (IPW) versions of the likelihood equations, offers a simple and robust method for fitting models to two phase stratified samples. We consider semiparametric models for which solution of infinite dimensional estimating equations leads to $\sqrt{N}$ consistent and asymptotically Gaussian estimators of both Euclidean and nonparametric parameters. If the phase two sample is selected via Bernoulli (i.i.d.) sampling with known sampling probabilities, standard estimating equation theory shows that the influence function for the weighted likelihood estimator of the Euclidean parameter is the IPW version of the ordinary influence function. By proving weak convergence of the IPW empirical process, and borrowing results on weighted bootstrap empirical processes, we derive a parallel asymptotic expansion for finite population stratified sampling. Whereas the asymptotic variance for Bernoulli sampling involves the within strata second moments of the influence function, for finite population stratified sampling it involves only the within strata variances. The latter asymptotic variance also arises when the observed sampling fractions are used as estimates of those known a priori. A general procedure is proposed for fitting semiparametric models with estimated weights to two phase data. Several of our key results have already been derived for the special case of Cox regression with stratified case-cohort studies, other complex survey designs and missing data problems more generally. This paper is intended to help place this previous work in appropriate context and to pave the way for applications to other models.

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arXiv2005

Conjecture of error boundedness in a new Hermite interpolation problem via splines of odd-degree

We present a Hermite interpolation problem via splines of odd-degree which, to the best knowledge of the authors, has not been considered in the literature on interpolation via odd-degree splines. In this new interpolation problem, we conjecture that the interpolation error is bounded in the supremum norm independently of the locations of the knots. Given an integer k greater than or equal to 3, our spline interpolant is of degree 2k-1 and with 2k-4 (interior) knots. Simulations were performed to check the validity of the conjecture. We present strong numerical evidence in support of the conjecture for k=3, ..., 10 when the interpolated function belongs to C^{(2k)}[0,1], the class of 2k-times continuously differentiable functions on [0,1]. In this case, the worst interpolation error is proved to be attained by the perfect spline of degree 2k with the same knots as the spline interpolant. This interpolation problem arises naturally in nonparametric estimation of a multiply monotone density via Least Squares and Maximum Likehood methods.

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