arXiv subjects

Jon Kleinberg

Publications and source records attributed to Jon Kleinberg.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Informational Diversity and Affinity Bias in Team Growth Dynamics

Prior work has provided strong evidence that, within organizational settings, teams that bring a diversity of information and perspectives to a task are more effective than teams that do not. If this form of informational diversity confers performance advantages, why do we often see largely homogeneous teams in practice? One canonical argument is that the benefits of informational diversity are in tension with affinity bias. To better understand the impact of this tension on the makeup of teams, we analyze a sequential model of team formation in which individuals care about their team's performance (captured in terms of accurately predicting some future outcome based on a set of features) but experience a cost as a result of interacting with teammates who use different approaches to the prediction task. Our analysis of this simple model reveals a set of subtle behaviors that team-growth dynamics can exhibit: (i) from certain initial team compositions, they can make progress toward better performance but then get stuck partway to optimally diverse teams; while (ii) from other initial compositions, they can also move away from this optimal balance as the majority group tries to crowd out the opinions of the minority. The initial composition of the team can determine whether the dynamics will move toward or away from performance optimality, painting a path-dependent picture of inefficiencies in team compositions. Our results formalize a fundamental limitation of utility-based motivations to drive informational diversity in organizations and hint at interventions that may improve informational diversity and performance simultaneously.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2023

Combinatorial Characterizations and Impossibilities for Higher-order Homophily

Homophily is the seemingly ubiquitous tendency for people to connect and interact with other individuals who are similar to them. This is a well-documented principle and is fundamental for how society organizes. Although many social interactions occur in groups, homophily has traditionally been measured using a graph model, which only accounts for pairwise interactions involving two individuals. Here, we develop a framework using hypergraphs to quantify homophily from group interactions. This reveals natural patterns of group homophily that appear with gender in scientific collaboration and political affiliation in legislative bill co-sponsorship, and also reveals distinctive gender distributions in group photographs, all of which cannot be fully captured by pairwise measures. At the same time, we show that seemingly natural ways to define group homophily are combinatorially impossible. This reveals important pitfalls to avoid when defining and interpreting notions of group homophily, as higher-order homophily patterns are governed by combinatorial constraints that are independent of human behavior but are easily overlooked.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Ballot Length in Instant Runoff Voting

Instant runoff voting (IRV) is an increasingly-popular alternative to traditional plurality voting in which voters submit rankings over the candidates rather than single votes. In practice, elections using IRV often restrict the ballot length, the number of candidates a voter is allowed to rank on their ballot. We theoretically and empirically analyze how ballot length can influence the outcome of an election, given fixed voter preferences. We show that there exist preference profiles over $k$ candidates such that up to $k-1$ different candidates win at different ballot lengths. We derive exact lower bounds on the number of voters required for such profiles and provide a construction matching the lower bound for unrestricted voter preferences. Additionally, we characterize which sequences of winners are possible over ballot lengths and provide explicit profile constructions achieving any feasible winner sequence. We also examine how classic preference restrictions influence our results--for instance, single-peakedness makes $k-1$ different winners impossible but still allows at least $Ω(\sqrt k)$. Finally, we analyze a collection of 168 real-world elections, where we truncate rankings to simulate shorter ballots. We find that shorter ballots could have changed the outcome in one quarter of these elections. Our results highlight ballot length as a consequential degree of freedom in the design of IRV elections.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2022

Supervised Hypergraph Reconstruction

We study an issue commonly seen with graph data analysis: many real-world complex systems involving high-order interactions are best encoded by hypergraphs; however, their datasets often end up being published or studied only in the form of their projections (with dyadic edges). To understand this issue, we first establish a theoretical framework to characterize this issue's implications and worst-case scenarios. The analysis motivates our formulation of the new task, supervised hypergraph reconstruction: reconstructing a real-world hypergraph from its projected graph, with the help of some existing knowledge of the application domain. To reconstruct hypergraph data, we start by analyzing hyperedge distributions in the projection, based on which we create a framework containing two modules: (1) to handle the enormous search space of potential hyperedges, we design a sampling strategy with efficacy guarantees that significantly narrows the space to a smaller set of candidates; (2) to identify hyperedges from the candidates, we further design a hyperedge classifier in two well-working variants that capture structural features in the projection. Extensive experiments validate our claims, approach, and extensions. Remarkably, our approach outperforms all baselines by an order of magnitude in accuracy on hard datasets. Our code and data can be downloaded from bit.ly/SHyRe.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Containing the spread of a contagion on a tree

Contact tracing can be thought of as a race between two processes: an infection process and a tracing process. In this paper, we study a simple model of infection spreading on a tree, and a tracer who stabilizes one node at a time. We focus on the question, how should the tracer choose nodes to stabilize so as to prevent the infection from spreading further? We study simple policies, which prioritize nodes based on time, infectiousness, or probability of generating new contacts.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Learning to Reason with Neural Networks: Generalization, Unseen Data and Boolean Measures

This paper considers the Pointer Value Retrieval (PVR) benchmark introduced in [ZRKB21], where a 'reasoning' function acts on a string of digits to produce the label. More generally, the paper considers the learning of logical functions with gradient descent (GD) on neural networks. It is first shown that in order to learn logical functions with gradient descent on symmetric neural networks, the generalization error can be lower-bounded in terms of the noise-stability of the target function, supporting a conjecture made in [ZRKB21]. It is then shown that in the distribution shift setting, when the data withholding corresponds to freezing a single feature (referred to as canonical holdout), the generalization error of gradient descent admits a tight characterization in terms of the Boolean influence for several relevant architectures. This is shown on linear models and supported experimentally on other models such as MLPs and Transformers. In particular, this puts forward the hypothesis that for such architectures and for learning logical functions such as PVR functions, GD tends to have an implicit bias towards low-degree representations, which in turn gives the Boolean influence for the generalization error under quadratic loss.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Exporting Geography Into A Virtual Landscape: A Global Pandemic Locally Discussed

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a global health crisis playing out in the age of social media. Even though the virtual environment makes interaction possible regardless of physical location, many of the most pressing issues during the pandemic -- case counts, lockdown policies, vaccine availability -- have played out in an intensely local fashion. Reflecting this locality, many of the online COVID communities that formed have been closely tied to physical location, at different spatial scales ranging from cities to countries to entire global platforms. This provides an opportunity to study how the real-world geography of the pandemic translates into a virtual landscape. By analyzing almost 300 geographically-linked COVID discussion communities on Reddit, we show how these discussions were organized geographically and temporally in three aspects: what were people talking about, who were they talking about it with, and how did they self-organize these conversations?

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Hypergraph patterns and collaboration structure

Humans collaborate in different contexts such as in creative or scientific projects, in workplaces and in sports. Depending on the project and external circumstances, a newly formed collaboration may include people that have collaborated before in the past, and people with no collaboration history. Such existing relationships between team members have been reported to influence the performance of teams. However, it is not clear how existing relationships between team members should be quantified, and whether some relationships are more likely to occur in new collaborations than others. Here we introduce a new family of structural patterns, m-patterns, which formalize relationships between collaborators and we study the prevalence of such structures in data and a simple random-hypergraph null model. We analyze the frequency with which different collaboration structures appear in our null model and show how such frequencies depend on size and hyperedge density in the hypergraphs. Comparing the null model to data of human and non-human collaborations, we find that some collaboration structures are vastly under- and overrepresented in empirical datasets. Finally, we find that structures of scientific collaborations on COVID-19 papers in some cases are statistically significantly different from those of non-COVID-19 papers. Examining citation counts for 4 different scientific fields, we also find indications that repeat collaborations are more successful for 2-author scientific publications and less successful for 3-author scientific publications as compared to other collaboration structures.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Dynamic Interventions for Networked Contagions

We study the problem of designing dynamic intervention policies for minimizing networked defaults in financial networks. Formally, we consider a dynamic version of the celebrated Eisenberg-Noe model of financial network liabilities and use this to study the design of external intervention policies. Our controller has a fixed resource budget in each round and can use this to minimize the effect of demand/supply shocks in the network. We formulate the optimal intervention problem as a Markov Decision Process and show how we can leverage the problem structure to efficiently compute optimal intervention policies with continuous interventions and provide approximation algorithms for discrete interventions. Going beyond financial networks, we argue that our model captures dynamic network intervention in a much broader class of dynamic demand/supply settings with networked inter-dependencies. To demonstrate this, we apply our intervention algorithms to various application domains, including ridesharing, online transaction platforms, and financial networks with agent mobility. In each case, we study the relationship between node centrality and intervention strength, as well as the fairness properties of the optimal interventions.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Detecting Individual Decision-Making Style: Exploring Behavioral Stylometry in Chess

The advent of machine learning models that surpass human decision-making ability in complex domains has initiated a movement towards building AI systems that interact with humans. Many building blocks are essential for this activity, with a central one being the algorithmic characterization of human behavior. While much of the existing work focuses on aggregate human behavior, an important long-range goal is to develop behavioral models that specialize to individual people and can differentiate among them. To formalize this process, we study the problem of behavioral stylometry, in which the task is to identify a decision-maker from their decisions alone. We present a transformer-based approach to behavioral stylometry in the context of chess, where one attempts to identify the player who played a set of games. Our method operates in a few-shot classification framework, and can correctly identify a player from among thousands of candidate players with 98% accuracy given only 100 labeled games. Even when trained on amateur play, our method generalises to out-of-distribution samples of Grandmaster players, despite the dramatic differences between amateur and world-class players. Finally, we consider more broadly what our resulting embeddings reveal about human style in chess, as well as the potential ethical implications of powerful methods for identifying individuals from behavioral data.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Mimetic Models: Ethical Implications of AI that Acts Like You

An emerging theme in artificial intelligence research is the creation of models to simulate the decisions and behavior of specific people, in domains including game-playing, text generation, and artistic expression. These models go beyond earlier approaches in the way they are tailored to individuals, and the way they are designed for interaction rather than simply the reproduction of fixed, pre-computed behaviors. We refer to these as mimetic models, and in this paper we develop a framework for characterizing the ethical and social issues raised by their growing availability. Our framework includes a number of distinct scenarios for the use of such models, and considers the impacts on a range of different participants, including the target being modeled, the operator who deploys the model, and the entities that interact with it.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Learning Models of Individual Behavior in Chess

AI systems that can capture human-like behavior are becoming increasingly useful in situations where humans may want to learn from these systems, collaborate with them, or engage with them as partners for an extended duration. In order to develop human-oriented AI systems, the problem of predicting human actions -- as opposed to predicting optimal actions -- has received considerable attention. Existing work has focused on capturing human behavior in an aggregate sense, which potentially limits the benefit any particular individual could gain from interaction with these systems. We extend this line of work by developing highly accurate predictive models of individual human behavior in chess. Chess is a rich domain for exploring human-AI interaction because it combines a unique set of properties: AI systems achieved superhuman performance many years ago, and yet humans still interact with them closely, both as opponents and as preparation tools, and there is an enormous corpus of recorded data on individual player games. Starting with Maia, an open-source version of AlphaZero trained on a population of human players, we demonstrate that we can significantly improve prediction accuracy of a particular player's moves by applying a series of fine-tuning methods. Furthermore, our personalized models can be used to perform stylometry -- predicting who made a given set of moves -- indicating that they capture human decision-making at an individual level. Our work demonstrates a way to bring AI systems into better alignment with the behavior of individual people, which could lead to large improvements in human-AI interaction.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Four Years of FAccT: A Reflexive, Mixed-Methods Analysis of Research Contributions, Shortcomings, and Future Prospects

Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency (FAccT) for socio-technical systems has been a thriving area of research in recent years. An ACM conference bearing the same name has been the central venue for scholars in this area to come together, provide peer feedback to one another, and publish their work. This reflexive study aims to shed light on FAccT's activities to date and identify major gaps and opportunities for translating contributions into broader positive impact. To this end, we utilize a mixed-methods research design. On the qualitative front, we develop a protocol for reviewing and coding prior FAccT papers, tracing their distribution of topics, methods, datasets, and disciplinary roots. We also design and administer a questionnaire to reflect the voices of FAccT community members and affiliates on a wide range of topics. On the quantitative front, we use the full text and citation network associated with prior FAccT publications to provide further evidence about topics and values represented in FAccT. We organize the findings from our analysis into four main dimensions: the themes present in FAccT scholarship, the values that underpin the work, the impact of the contributions both within academic circles and beyond, and the practices and informal norms of the community that has formed around FAccT. Finally, our work identifies several suggestions on directions for change, as voiced by community members.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

Core-periphery Models for Hypergraphs

We introduce a random hypergraph model for core-periphery structure. By leveraging our model's sufficient statistics, we develop a novel statistical inference algorithm that is able to scale to large hypergraphs with runtime that is practically linear wrt. the number of nodes in the graph after a preprocessing step that is almost linear in the number of hyperedges, as well as a scalable sampling algorithm. Our inference algorithm is capable of learning embeddings that correspond to the reputation (rank) of a node within the hypergraph. We also give theoretical bounds on the size of the core of hypergraphs generated by our model. We experiment with hypergraph data that range to $\sim 10^5$ hyperedges mined from the Microsoft Academic Graph, Stack Exchange, and GitHub and show that our model outperforms baselines wrt. producing good fits.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

On the Effect of Triadic Closure on Network Segregation

The tendency for individuals to form social ties with others who are similar to themselves, known as homophily, is one of the most robust sociological principles. Since this phenomenon can lead to patterns of interactions that segregate people along different demographic dimensions, it can also lead to inequalities in access to information, resources, and opportunities. As we consider potential interventions that might alleviate the effects of segregation, we face the challenge that homophily constitutes a pervasive and organic force that is difficult to push back against. Designing effective interventions can therefore benefit from identifying counterbalancing social processes that might be harnessed to work in opposition to segregation. In this work, we show that triadic closure -- another common phenomenon that posits that individuals with a mutual connection are more likely to be connected to one another -- can be one such process. In doing so, we challenge a long-held belief that triadic closure and homophily work in tandem. By analyzing several fundamental network models using popular integration measures, we demonstrate the desegregating potential of triadic closure. We further empirically investigate this effect on real-world dynamic networks, surfacing observations that mirror our theoretical findings. We leverage these insights to discuss simple interventions that can help reduce segregation in settings that exhibit an interplay between triadic closure and homophily. We conclude with a discussion on qualitative implications for the design of interventions in settings where individuals arrive in an online fashion, and the designer can influence the initial set of connections.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Allocating Stimulus Checks in Times of Crisis

We study the problem of allocating bailouts (stimulus, subsidy allocations) to people participating in a financial network subject to income shocks. We build on the financial clearing framework of Eisenberg and Noe that allows the incorporation of a bailout policy that is based on discrete bailouts motivated by the types of stimulus checks people receive around the world as part of COVID-19 economical relief plans. We show that optimally allocating such bailouts on a financial network in order to maximize a variety of social welfare objectives of this form is a computationally intractable problem. We develop approximation algorithms to optimize these objectives and establish guarantees for their approximation rations. Then, we incorporate multiple fairness constraints in the optimization problems and establish relative bounds on the solutions with versus without these constraints. Finally, we apply our methodology to a variety of data, both in the context of a system of large financial institutions with real-world data, as well as in a realistic societal context with financial interactions between people and businesses for which we use semi-artificial data derived from mobility patterns. Our results suggest that the algorithms we develop and study have reasonable results in practice and outperform other network-based heuristics. We argue that the presented problem through the societal-level lens could assist policymakers in making informed decisions on issuing subsidies.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Ordered Submodularity and its Applications to Diversifying Recommendations

A fundamental task underlying many important optimization problems, from influence maximization to sensor placement to content recommendation, is to select the optimal group of $k$ items from a larger set. Submodularity has been very effective in allowing approximation algorithms for such subset selection problems. However, in several applications, we are interested not only in the elements of a set, but also the order in which they appear, breaking the assumption that all selected items receive equal consideration. One such category of applications involves the presentation of search results, product recommendations, news articles, and other content, due to the well-documented phenomenon that humans pay greater attention to higher-ranked items. As a result, optimization in content presentation for diversity, user coverage, calibration, or other objectives more accurately represents a sequence selection problem, to which traditional submodularity approximation results no longer apply. Although extensions of submodularity to sequences have been proposed, none is designed to model settings where items contribute based on their position in a ranked list, and hence they are not able to express these types of optimization problems. In this paper, we aim to address this modeling gap. Here, we propose a new formalism of ordered submodularity that captures these ordering problems in content presentation, and more generally a category of optimization problems over ranked sequences in which different list positions contribute differently to the objective function. We analyze the natural ordered analogue of the greedy algorithm and show that it provides a $2$-approximation. We also show that this bound is tight, establishing that our new framework is conceptually and quantitatively distinct from previous formalisms of set and sequence submodularity.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2022

Pointer Value Retrieval: A new benchmark for understanding the limits of neural network generalization

Central to the success of artificial neural networks is their ability to generalize. But does neural network generalization primarily rely on seeing highly similar training examples (memorization)? Or are neural networks capable of human-intelligence styled reasoning, and if so, to what extent? These remain fundamental open questions on artificial neural networks. In this paper, as steps towards answering these questions, we introduce a new benchmark, Pointer Value Retrieval (PVR) to study the limits of neural network reasoning. The PVR suite of tasks is based on reasoning about indirection, a hallmark of human intelligence, where a first stage (task) contains instructions for solving a second stage (task). In PVR, this is done by having one part of the task input act as a pointer, giving instructions on a different input location, which forms the output. We show this simple rule can be applied to create a diverse set of tasks across different input modalities and configurations. Importantly, this use of indirection enables systematically varying task difficulty through distribution shifts and increasing functional complexity. We conduct a detailed empirical study of different PVR tasks, discovering large variations in performance across dataset sizes, neural network architectures and task complexity. Further, by incorporating distribution shift and increased functional complexity, we develop nuanced tests for reasoning, revealing subtle failures and surprising successes, suggesting many promising directions of exploration on this benchmark.

cs.LG↗