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Jonathan P. How

Publications and source records attributed to Jonathan P. How.

At least 181 records · Page 10Linked to original sources

Active Sampling-based Binary Verification of Dynamical Systems

Nonlinear, adaptive, or otherwise complex control techniques are increasingly relied upon to ensure the safety of systems operating in uncertain environments. However, the nonlinearity of the resulting closed-loop system complicates verification that the system does in fact satisfy those requirements at all possible operating conditions. While analytical proof-based techniques and finite abstractions can be used to provably verify the closed-loop system's response at different operating conditions, they often produce conservative approximations due to restrictive assumptions and are difficult to construct in many applications. In contrast, popular statistical verification techniques relax the restrictions and instead rely upon simulations to construct statistical or probabilistic guarantees. This work presents a data-driven statistical verification procedure that instead constructs statistical learning models from simulated training data to separate the set of possible perturbations into "safe" and "unsafe" subsets. Binary evaluations of closed-loop system requirement satisfaction at various realizations of the uncertainties are obtained through temporal logic robustness metrics, which are then used to construct predictive models of requirement satisfaction over the full set of possible uncertainties. As the accuracy of these predictive statistical models is inherently coupled to the quality of the training data, an active learning algorithm selects additional sample points in order to maximize the expected change in the data-driven model and thus, indirectly, minimize the prediction error. Various case studies demonstrate the closed-loop verification procedure and highlight improvements in prediction error over both existing analytical and statistical verification techniques.

eess.SY↗

Active Sampling for Constrained Simulation-based Verification of Uncertain Nonlinear Systems

Increasingly demanding performance requirements for dynamical systems motivates the adoption of nonlinear and adaptive control techniques. One challenge is the nonlinearity of the resulting closed-loop system complicates verification that the system does satisfy the requirements at all possible operating conditions. This paper presents a data-driven procedure for efficient simulation-based, statistical verification without the reliance upon exhaustive simulations. In contrast to previous work, this approach introduces a method for online estimation of prediction accuracy without the use of external validation sets. This work also develops a novel active sampling algorithm that iteratively selects additional training points in order to maximize the accuracy of the predictions while still limited to a sample budget. Three case studies demonstrate the utility of the new approach and the results show up to a 50% improvement over state-of-the-art techniques.

eess.SY↗

Closed-Loop Statistical Verification of Stochastic Nonlinear Systems Subject to Parametric Uncertainties

This paper proposes a statistical verification framework using Gaussian processes (GPs) for simulation-based verification of stochastic nonlinear systems with parametric uncertainties. Given a small number of stochastic simulations, the proposed framework constructs a GP regression model and predicts the system's performance over the entire set of possible uncertainties. Included in the framework is a new metric to estimate the confidence in those predictions based on the variance of the GP's cumulative distribution function. This variance-based metric forms the basis of active sampling algorithms that aim to minimize prediction error through careful selection of simulations. In three case studies, the new active sampling algorithms demonstrate up to a 35% improvement in prediction error over other approaches and are able to correctly identify regions with low prediction confidence through the variance metric.

eess.SY↗

Learning for Multi-robot Cooperation in Partially Observable Stochastic Environments with Macro-actions

This paper presents a data-driven approach for multi-robot coordination in partially-observable domains based on Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (Dec-POMDPs) and macro-actions (MAs). Dec-POMDPs provide a general framework for cooperative sequential decision making under uncertainty and MAs allow temporally extended and asynchronous action execution. To date, most methods assume the underlying Dec-POMDP model is known a priori or a full simulator is available during planning time. Previous methods which aim to address these issues suffer from local optimality and sensitivity to initial conditions. Additionally, few hardware demonstrations involving a large team of heterogeneous robots and with long planning horizons exist. This work addresses these gaps by proposing an iterative sampling based Expectation-Maximization algorithm (iSEM) to learn polices using only trajectory data containing observations, MAs, and rewards. Our experiments show the algorithm is able to achieve better solution quality than the state-of-the-art learning-based methods. We implement two variants of multi-robot Search and Rescue (SAR) domains (with and without obstacles) on hardware to demonstrate the learned policies can effectively control a team of distributed robots to cooperate in a partially observable stochastic environment.

cs.MA↗

Demand Estimation and Chance-Constrained Fleet Management for Ride Hailing

In autonomous Mobility on Demand (MOD) systems, customers request rides from a fleet of shared vehicles that can be automatically positioned in response to customer demand. Recent approaches to MOD systems have focused on environments where customers can only request rides through an app or by waiting at a station. This paper develops MOD fleet management approaches for ride hailing, where customers may instead request rides simply by hailing a passing vehicle, an approach of particular importance for campus MOD systems. The challenge for ride hailing is that customer demand is not explicitly provided as it would be with an app, but rather customers are only served if a vehicle happens to be located at the arrival location. This work focuses on maximizing the number of served hailing customers in an MOD system by learning and utilizing customer demand. A Bayesian framework is used to define a novel customer demand model which incorporates observed pedestrian traffic to estimate customer arrival locations with a quantification of uncertainty. An exploration planner is proposed which routes MOD vehicles in order to reduce arrival rate uncertainty. A robust ride hailing fleet management planner is proposed which routes vehicles under the presence of uncertainty using a chance-constrained formulation. Simulation of a real-world MOD system on MIT's campus demonstrates the effectiveness of the planners. The customer demand model and exploration planner are demonstrated to reduce estimation error over time and the ride hailing planner is shown to improve the fraction of served customers in the system by 73\% over a baseline exploration approach.

cs.RO↗

Deep Decentralized Multi-task Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning under Partial Observability

Many real-world tasks involve multiple agents with partial observability and limited communication. Learning is challenging in these settings due to local viewpoints of agents, which perceive the world as non-stationary due to concurrently-exploring teammates. Approaches that learn specialized policies for individual tasks face problems when applied to the real world: not only do agents have to learn and store distinct policies for each task, but in practice identities of tasks are often non-observable, making these approaches inapplicable. This paper formalizes and addresses the problem of multi-task multi-agent reinforcement learning under partial observability. We introduce a decentralized single-task learning approach that is robust to concurrent interactions of teammates, and present an approach for distilling single-task policies into a unified policy that performs well across multiple related tasks, without explicit provision of task identity.

cs.LG↗

Semantic-level Decentralized Multi-Robot Decision-Making using Probabilistic Macro-Observations

Robust environment perception is essential for decision-making on robots operating in complex domains. Intelligent task execution requires principled treatment of uncertainty sources in a robot's observation model. This is important not only for low-level observations (e.g., accelerometer data), but also for high-level observations such as semantic object labels. This paper formalizes the concept of macro-observations in Decentralized Partially Observable Semi-Markov Decision Processes (Dec-POSMDPs), allowing scalable semantic-level multi-robot decision making. A hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to model noise statistics of low-level classifier outputs, while simultaneously allowing sharing of domain noise characteristics between classes. Classification accuracy of the proposed macro-observation scheme, called Hierarchical Bayesian Noise Inference (HBNI), is shown to exceed existing methods. The macro-observation scheme is then integrated into a Dec-POSMDP planner, with hardware experiments running onboard a team of dynamic quadrotors in a challenging domain where noise-agnostic filtering fails. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of a real-time, convolutional neural net-based classification framework running fully onboard a team of quadrotors in a multi-robot decision-making domain.

cs.MA↗

Scalable Accelerated Decentralized Multi-Robot Policy Search in Continuous Observation Spaces

This paper presents the first ever approach for solving \emph{continuous-observation} Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (Dec-POMDPs) and their semi-Markovian counterparts, Dec-POSMDPs. This contribution is especially important in robotics, where a vast number of sensors provide continuous observation data. A continuous-observation policy representation is introduced using Stochastic Kernel-based Finite State Automata (SK-FSAs). An SK-FSA search algorithm titled Entropy-based Policy Search using Continuous Kernel Observations (EPSCKO) is introduced and applied to the first ever continuous-observation Dec-POMDP/Dec-POSMDP domain, where it significantly outperforms state-of-the-art discrete approaches. This methodology is equally applicable to Dec-POMDPs and Dec-POSMDPs, though the empirical analysis presented focuses on Dec-POSMDPs due to their higher scalability. To improve convergence, an entropy injection policy search acceleration approach for both continuous and discrete observation cases is also developed and shown to improve convergence rates without degrading policy quality.

cs.MA↗

Predictive Positioning and Quality Of Service Ridesharing for Campus Mobility On Demand Systems

Autonomous Mobility On Demand (MOD) systems can utilize fleet management strategies in order to provide a high customer quality of service (QoS). Previous works on autonomous MOD systems have developed methods for rebalancing single capacity vehicles, where QoS is maintained through large fleet sizing. This work focuses on MOD systems utilizing a small number of vehicles, such as those found on a campus, where additional vehicles cannot be introduced as demand for rides increases. A predictive positioning method is presented for improving customer QoS by identifying key locations to position the fleet in order to minimize expected customer wait time. Ridesharing is introduced as a means for improving customer QoS as arrival rates increase. However, with ridesharing perceived QoS is dependent on an often unknown customer preference. To address this challenge, a customer ratings model, which learns customer preference from a 5-star rating, is developed and incorporated directly into a ridesharing algorithm. The predictive positioning and ridesharing methods are applied to simulation of a real-world campus MOD system.A combined predictive positioning and ridesharing approach is shown to reduce customer service times by up to 29% and the customer ratings model is shown to provide the best overall MOD fleet management performance over a range of customer preferences.

cs.MA↗

Dynamic Arrival Rate Estimation for Campus Mobility on Demand Network Graphs

Mobility On Demand (MOD) systems are revolutionizing transportation in urban settings by improving vehicle utilization and reducing parking congestion. A key factor in the success of an MOD system is the ability to measure and respond to real-time customer arrival data. Real time traffic arrival rate data is traditionally difficult to obtain due to the need to install fixed sensors throughout the MOD network. This paper presents a framework for measuring pedestrian traffic arrival rates using sensors onboard the vehicles that make up the MOD fleet. A novel distributed fusion algorithm is presented which combines onboard LIDAR and camera sensor measurements to detect trajectories of pedestrians with a 90% detection hit rate with 1.5 false positives per minute. A novel moving observer method is introduced to estimate pedestrian arrival rates from pedestrian trajectories collected from mobile sensors. The moving observer method is evaluated in both simulation and hardware and is shown to achieve arrival rate estimates comparable to those that would be obtained with multiple stationary sensors.

cs.RO↗

Quickest Change Detection Approach to Optimal Control in Markov Decision Processes with Model Changes

Optimal control in non-stationary Markov decision processes (MDP) is a challenging problem. The aim in such a control problem is to maximize the long-term discounted reward when the transition dynamics or the reward function can change over time. When a prior knowledge of change statistics is available, the standard Bayesian approach to this problem is to reformulate it as a partially observable MDP (POMDP) and solve it using approximate POMDP solvers, which are typically computationally demanding. In this paper, the problem is analyzed through the viewpoint of quickest change detection (QCD), a set of tools for detecting a change in the distribution of a sequence of random variables. Current methods applying QCD to such problems only passively detect changes by following prescribed policies, without optimizing the choice of actions for long term performance. We demonstrate that ignoring the reward-detection trade-off can cause a significant loss in long term rewards, and propose a two threshold switching strategy to solve the issue. A non-Bayesian problem formulation is also proposed for scenarios where a Bayesian formulation cannot be defined. The performance of the proposed two threshold strategy is examined through numerical analysis on a non-stationary MDP task, and the strategy outperforms the state-of-the-art QCD methods in both Bayesian and non-Bayesian settings.

stat.AP↗

Efficient Global Point Cloud Alignment using Bayesian Nonparametric Mixtures

Point cloud alignment is a common problem in computer vision and robotics, with applications ranging from 3D object recognition to reconstruction. We propose a novel approach to the alignment problem that utilizes Bayesian nonparametrics to describe the point cloud and surface normal densities, and branch and bound (BB) optimization to recover the relative transformation. BB uses a novel, refinable, near-uniform tessellation of rotation space using 4D tetrahedra, leading to more efficient optimization compared to the common axis-angle tessellation. We provide objective function bounds for pruning given the proposed tessellation, and prove that BB converges to the optimum of the cost function along with providing its computational complexity. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach as well as its robustness to real-world conditions such as missing data and partial overlap.

cs.CV↗

Decentralized Non-communicating Multiagent Collision Avoidance with Deep Reinforcement Learning

Finding feasible, collision-free paths for multiagent systems can be challenging, particularly in non-communicating scenarios where each agent's intent (e.g. goal) is unobservable to the others. In particular, finding time efficient paths often requires anticipating interaction with neighboring agents, the process of which can be computationally prohibitive. This work presents a decentralized multiagent collision avoidance algorithm based on a novel application of deep reinforcement learning, which effectively offloads the online computation (for predicting interaction patterns) to an offline learning procedure. Specifically, the proposed approach develops a value network that encodes the estimated time to the goal given an agent's joint configuration (positions and velocities) with its neighbors. Use of the value network not only admits efficient (i.e., real-time implementable) queries for finding a collision-free velocity vector, but also considers the uncertainty in the other agents' motion. Simulation results show more than 26 percent improvement in paths quality (i.e., time to reach the goal) when compared with optimal reciprocal collision avoidance (ORCA), a state-of-the-art collision avoidance strategy.

cs.MA↗

Small-Variance Nonparametric Clustering on the Hypersphere

Structural regularities in man-made environments reflect in the distribution of their surface normals. Describing these surface normal distributions is important in many computer vision applications, such as scene understanding, plane segmentation, and regularization of 3D reconstructions. Based on the small-variance limit of Bayesian nonparametric von-Mises-Fisher (vMF) mixture distributions, we propose two new flexible and efficient k-means-like clustering algorithms for directional data such as surface normals. The first, DP-vMF-means, is a batch clustering algorithm derived from the Dirichlet process (DP) vMF mixture. Recognizing the sequential nature of data collection in many applications, we extend this algorithm to DDP-vMF-means, which infers temporally evolving cluster structure from streaming data. Both algorithms naturally respect the geometry of directional data, which lies on the unit sphere. We demonstrate their performance on synthetic directional data and real 3D surface normals from RGB-D sensors. While our experiments focus on 3D data, both algorithms generalize to high dimensional directional data such as protein backbone configurations and semantic word vectors.

cs.CV↗

Hierarchical Bayesian Noise Inference for Robust Real-time Probabilistic Object Classification

Robust environment perception is essential for decision-making on robots operating in complex domains. Principled treatment of uncertainty sources in a robot's observation model is necessary for accurate mapping and object detection. This is important not only for low-level observations (e.g., accelerometer data), but for high-level observations such as semantic object labels as well. This paper presents an approach for filtering sequences of object classification probabilities using online modeling of the noise characteristics of the classifier outputs. A hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to model per-class noise distributions, while simultaneously allowing sharing of high-level noise characteristics between classes. The proposed filtering scheme, called Hierarchical Bayesian Noise Inference (HBNI), is shown to outperform classification accuracy of existing methods. The paper also presents real-time filtered classification hardware experiments running fully onboard a moving quadrotor, where the proposed approach is demonstrated to work in a challenging domain where noise-agnostic filtering fails.

cs.CV↗

Stick-Breaking Policy Learning in Dec-POMDPs

Expectation maximization (EM) has recently been shown to be an efficient algorithm for learning finite-state controllers (FSCs) in large decentralized POMDPs (Dec-POMDPs). However, current methods use fixed-size FSCs and often converge to maxima that are far from optimal. This paper considers a variable-size FSC to represent the local policy of each agent. These variable-size FSCs are constructed using a stick-breaking prior, leading to a new framework called \emph{decentralized stick-breaking policy representation} (Dec-SBPR). This approach learns the controller parameters with a variational Bayesian algorithm without having to assume that the Dec-POMDP model is available. The performance of Dec-SBPR is demonstrated on several benchmark problems, showing that the algorithm scales to large problems while outperforming other state-of-the-art methods.

cs.AI↗

Streaming, Distributed Variational Inference for Bayesian Nonparametrics

This paper presents a methodology for creating streaming, distributed inference algorithms for Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models. In the proposed framework, processing nodes receive a sequence of data minibatches, compute a variational posterior for each, and make asynchronous streaming updates to a central model. In contrast to previous algorithms, the proposed framework is truly streaming, distributed, asynchronous, learning-rate-free, and truncation-free. The key challenge in developing the framework, arising from the fact that BNP models do not impose an inherent ordering on their components, is finding the correspondence between minibatch and central BNP posterior components before performing each update. To address this, the paper develops a combinatorial optimization problem over component correspondences, and provides an efficient solution technique. The paper concludes with an application of the methodology to the DP mixture model, with experimental results demonstrating its practical scalability and performance.

cs.LG↗

Decentralized Control of Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes using Belief Space Macro-actions

The focus of this paper is on solving multi-robot planning problems in continuous spaces with partial observability. Decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes (Dec-POMDPs) are general models for multi-robot coordination problems, but representing and solving Dec-POMDPs is often intractable for large problems. To allow for a high-level representation that is natural for multi-robot problems and scalable to large discrete and continuous problems, this paper extends the Dec-POMDP model to the decentralized partially observable semi-Markov decision process (Dec-POSMDP). The Dec-POSMDP formulation allows asynchronous decision-making by the robots, which is crucial in multi-robot domains. We also present an algorithm for solving this Dec-POSMDP which is much more scalable than previous methods since it can incorporate closed-loop belief space macro-actions in planning. These macro-actions are automatically constructed to produce robust solutions. The proposed method's performance is evaluated on a complex multi-robot package delivery problem under uncertainty, showing that our approach can naturally represent multi-robot problems and provide high-quality solutions for large-scale problems.

cs.MA↗