arXiv subjects

Jonathan P. How

Publications and source records attributed to Jonathan P. How.

185 records · Page 11Linked to original sources

arXiv2014

Resource-Constrained Adaptive Search for Sparse Multi-Class Targets with Varying Importance

In sparse target inference problems it has been shown that significant gains can be achieved by adaptive sensing using convex criteria. We generalize previous work on adaptive sensing to (a) include multiple classes of targets with different levels of importance and (b) accommodate multiple sensor models. New optimization policies are developed to allocate a limited resource budget to simultaneously locate, classify and estimate a sparse number of targets embedded in a large space. Upper and lower bounds on the performance of the proposed policies are derived by analyzing a baseline policy, which allocates resources uniformly across the scene, and an oracle policy which has a priori knowledge of the target locations/classes. These bounds quantify analytically the potential benefit of adaptive sensing as a function of target frequency and importance. Numerical results indicate that the proposed policies perform close to the oracle bound (<3dB) when signal quality is sufficiently high (e.g.~performance within 3 dB for SNR above 15 dB). Moreover, the proposed policies improve on previous policies in terms of reducing estimation error, reducing misclassification probability, and increasing expected return. To account for sensors with different levels of agility, three sensor models are considered: global adaptive (GA), which can allocate different amounts of resource to each location in the space; global uniform (GU), which can allocate resources uniformly across the scene; and local adaptive (LA), which can allocate fixed units to a subset of locations. Policies that use a mixture of GU and LA sensors are shown to perform similarly to those that use GA sensors while being more easily implementable.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2014

Approximate Decentralized Bayesian Inference

This paper presents an approximate method for performing Bayesian inference in models with conditional independence over a decentralized network of learning agents. The method first employs variational inference on each individual learning agent to generate a local approximate posterior, the agents transmit their local posteriors to other agents in the network, and finally each agent combines its set of received local posteriors. The key insight in this work is that, for many Bayesian models, approximate inference schemes destroy symmetry and dependencies in the model that are crucial to the correct application of Bayes' rule when combining the local posteriors. The proposed method addresses this issue by including an additional optimization step in the combination procedure that accounts for these broken dependencies. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate that the decentralized method provides advantages in computational performance and predictive test likelihood over previous batch and distributed methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2014

Real-Time Predictive Modeling and Robust Avoidance of Pedestrians with Uncertain, Changing Intentions

To plan safe trajectories in urban environments, autonomous vehicles must be able to quickly assess the future intentions of dynamic agents. Pedestrians are particularly challenging to model, as their motion patterns are often uncertain and/or unknown a priori. This paper presents a novel changepoint detection and clustering algorithm that, when coupled with offline unsupervised learning of a Gaussian process mixture model (DPGP), enables quick detection of changes in intent and online learning of motion patterns not seen in prior training data. The resulting long-term movement predictions demonstrate improved accuracy relative to offline learning alone, in terms of both intent and trajectory prediction. By embedding these predictions within a chance-constrained motion planner, trajectories which are probabilistically safe to pedestrian motions can be identified in real-time. Hardware experiments demonstrate that this approach can accurately predict pedestrian motion patterns from onboard sensor/perception data and facilitate robust navigation within a dynamic environment.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2014

Planning for Decentralized Control of Multiple Robots Under Uncertainty

We describe a probabilistic framework for synthesizing control policies for general multi-robot systems, given environment and sensor models and a cost function. Decentralized, partially observable Markov decision processes (Dec-POMDPs) are a general model of decision processes where a team of agents must cooperate to optimize some objective (specified by a shared reward or cost function) in the presence of uncertainty, but where communication limitations mean that the agents cannot share their state, so execution must proceed in a decentralized fashion. While Dec-POMDPs are typically intractable to solve for real-world problems, recent research on the use of macro-actions in Dec-POMDPs has significantly increased the size of problem that can be practically solved as a Dec-POMDP. We describe this general model, and show how, in contrast to most existing methods that are specialized to a particular problem class, it can synthesize control policies that use whatever opportunities for coordination are present in the problem, while balancing off uncertainty in outcomes, sensor information, and information about other agents. We use three variations on a warehouse task to show that a single planner of this type can generate cooperative behavior using task allocation, direct communication, and signaling, as appropriate.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2013

Dynamic Clustering via Asymptotics of the Dependent Dirichlet Process Mixture

This paper presents a novel algorithm, based upon the dependent Dirichlet process mixture model (DDPMM), for clustering batch-sequential data containing an unknown number of evolving clusters. The algorithm is derived via a low-variance asymptotic analysis of the Gibbs sampling algorithm for the DDPMM, and provides a hard clustering with convergence guarantees similar to those of the k-means algorithm. Empirical results from a synthetic test with moving Gaussian clusters and a test with real ADS-B aircraft trajectory data demonstrate that the algorithm requires orders of magnitude less computational time than contemporary probabilistic and hard clustering algorithms, while providing higher accuracy on the examined datasets.

cs.LG↗