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José M. Carcione

Publications and source records attributed to José M. Carcione.

2 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2023

Policy lessons from the Italian pandemic of Covid-19

We analyze the management of the Italian pandemic during the five identified waves. We considered the following problems: (i) The composition of the CTS ("Scientific Technical Committee"), which was composed entirely of doctors, mainly virologists, without mathematical epidemiologists, statisticians, physicists, etc. In fact, a pandemic has a behavior described by mathematical, stochastic and probabilistic criteria; (ii) Political interference in security measures and media propaganda; (iii) The initial stages of the vaccination campaign, ignoring the age factor, and (iv) The persistence of the pandemic due to the population unvaccinated (anti-vax or "no-vax"), which amounts to about six to seven million people, including 10% of anti-vax doctors.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2021

Rock acoustics of diagenesis and cementation

We simulate the effects of diagenesis, cementation and compaction on the elastic properties of shales and sandstones with four different petro-elastical theories and a basin-evolution model, based on constant heating and sedimentation rates. We consider shales composed of clay minerals, mainly smectite and illite, depending on the burial depth, and the pore space is assumed to be saturated with water at hydrostatic conditions. Diagenesis in shale (smectite/illite transformation here) as a function of depth is described by a 5th-order kinetic equation, based on an Arrhenius reaction rate. On the other hand, quartz cementation in sandstones is based on a model that estimates the volume of precipitated quartz cement and the resulting porosity loss from the temperature history, using an equation relating the precipitation rate to temperature. Effective pressure effects (additional compaction) are accounted for by using Athy equation and the Hertz-Mindlin model. The petro-elastic models yield similar seismic velocities, despite the different level of complexity and physics approaches, with increasing density and seismic velocities as a function of depth. The methodology provides a simple procedure to obtain the velocity of shales and sandstones versus temperature and pressure due to the diagenesis-cementation-compaction process.

physics.geo-ph↗