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José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Publications and source records attributed to José Miguel Hernández-Lobato.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

From Plato to Aristotle: Toward a General Theory of Representation Hypotheses

The Platonic Representation Hypothesis (PRH) holds that increasingly capable models converge toward a common representation. However, recent studies have shown different views on aligning representations via their neighborhoods, spanning trees, and distances. We show that these views can differ because the alignment criteria behind them sit at different points of one lattice, and we formalize this explanation as the Lattice Representation Hypothesis (LRH). Under the LRH, the convergence claimed by the PRH is agreement at the top of the lattice, whereas its evidence comes from neighbor overlap, a criterion near the bottom. The Aristotelian Representation Hypothesis (ARH) restricts convergence to local neighborhoods because calibration keeps the growth of neighbor overlap with model size but largely removes that of centered kernel alignment. We show that this removal can come from calibrating a maximum over layers, so global convergence remains open. Back into Plato's Cave (BPC) infers coarse shared structure from the collapse of neighbor overlap on larger evaluation sets, whereas we trace it at least partly to a fixed number of neighbors covering shorter distances. We show that the spanning-tree overlap used by Structure over Geometry (SOG) mostly repeats one-nearest-neighbor overlap. The LRH also extends to independently trained models, whose training procedure and objective decide the criteria met reliably across runs. We prove this claim for the training procedure in a linear autoencoder and for the objective in a finite contrastive Gibbs model. Experiments on dozens of pretrained vision and language models and thousands of runs of both theoretical models support these conclusions. We hope this work paves the way toward a general theory of representation hypotheses, with a framework to analyze them and compare their evidence. Project page: https://eethanshi.github.io/LRH

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

$σ$Transfer: Uncertainty Transfer from Small to Large Networks under $μ\mathrm{P}$

Reliable predictive uncertainty in Laplace approximations depends critically on the prior precision, yet selecting it requires a posterior sweep that is prohibitively expensive for neural networks with billions of parameters. Under the Maximal Update Parametrization ($μ\mathrm{P}$), we derive a rescaling of the prior covariance that makes the selected precision stable as model width grows. This leads to $σ\mathrm{Transfer}$: we select the precision on a smaller model and zero-shot transfer it to the much larger model, i.e., without searching for the precision on the larger model at all. We show convergence of the prior kernel, posterior covariance, selected precision, and posterior-derived decisions under explicit conditions, and verify $σ\mathrm{Transfer}$ across regression, image classification, and Transformer readouts. For example, measured precision-sweep speedups reach $\sim 5000\times$ when transferring from width 128 to 4096 on MNIST, at a target-NLL degradation of $0.002$; transferring from a public 1B to 7B model gives a median search speedup of $\sim 2.3\times$ (up to $\sim 330\times$), with a mean measured target-NLL increase below $10^{-4}$ across ten tasks. The same posterior stability also enables transfer of acquisition, OOD-detection, and abstention decisions without constructing a target posterior.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Controlling Dependence in Implicit Generative Models via Spread Mutual Information

Mutual information (MI) provides an objective for suppressing or encouraging statistical dependence in implicit generative models. However, direct MI evaluation is challenging in implicit models due to typically intractable densities. A remedy is estimating the generator gradient from the difference between conditional and marginal scores. This score difference can, in turn, be estimated by differentiating a log density ratio learned through classification. This construction nevertheless faces two difficulties: (i) singular distributions need not admit the required score functions, and (ii) poor overlap can hinder density-ratio estimation. We therefore introduce Spread Mutual Information (SMI), a weighted integral of MI across noise levels obtained by applying a common spreading kernel to the generated variable. Gaussian spreading yields smooth, strictly positive conditional and marginal densities, extending the gradient construction to distributions that may originally be singular. Across a variaty of experiments, SMI consistently achieves effective dependence control among MI-based methods and remains competitive with established task-specific approaches.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Causal Effect Estimation under Networked Interference without Networked Unconfoundedness Assumption

Estimating causal effects under networked interference from observational data is a crucial yet challenging problem. Most existing methods mainly rely on the networked unconfoundedness assumption, which guarantees the identification of networked effects. However, this assumption is often violated due to the latent confounders inherent in observational data, thereby hindering the identification of networked effects. To address this issue, we leverage the rich interaction patterns between units in networks, which provide valuable information for recovering these latent confounders. Building on this insight, we develop a confounder recovery framework that explicitly characterizes three categories of latent confounders in networked settings: those affecting only the unit, those affecting only the unit's neighbors, and those influencing both. Based on this framework, we design a networked effect estimator using identifiable representation learning techniques. From a theoretical standpoint, we prove the identifiability of all three types of latent confounders and, by leveraging the recovered confounders, establish a formal identification result for networked effects. Extensive experiments validate our theoretical findings and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

SupportCal: Label-Free Calibration of Post-Trained LLMs via Reference Support and Corroboration

Post-training often improves task performance but can degrade confidence calibration, leaving post-trained language models (PoLMs) more overconfident than their corresponding pretrained language models (PLMs). Because task-specific labeled calibration data can be costly or unavailable, the corresponding PLM provides a natural label-free reference for post-hoc calibration. Prior agreement-gated PLM-referenced calibration fits a scalar temperature using only examples on which the PoLM and its PLM reference agree, excluding disagreement examples because direct alignment can drive the fitted temperature excessively high and induce under-confidence. We revisit this binary treatment. A controlled reintroduction diagnostic reveals a non monotonic aggregate effect: admitting a moderate fraction of disagreement examples can improve calibration, whereas the benefit diminishes as unit weight inclusion approaches the full disagreement set. We introduce SupportCal, a label-free post-hoc method that retains agreement examples at unit weight and assigns disagreement examples continuous weights based on the own-base PLM's relative support and corroboration from pretrained references selected from a size-compatible candidate pool. We further characterize when the resulting weighted objective admits a finite optimal temperature. Across MedMCQA and MathQA, SupportCal yields lower mean ECE than the agreement-only baseline for nearly all evaluated target-model configurations; supplementary TweetEval Sentiment results show the same pattern on a fixed-label classification task.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

ENCORE: Exact Non-equilibrium COntrol with Replica Exchange for Diffusion Generation

Inference-time control steers a pretrained generative model towards a target distribution without retraining. We study tilted targets $π_0\propto G_0\,p_0$, where $p_0$ is the sampler output distribution and $G_0$ is an evaluable reweighting function. Existing approaches rely on sequential annealing with sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) or parallel annealing with replica exchange (RE). Sequential control is exact but needs large particle populations, whereas no exact parallel control method exists: existing RE corrections approximate an intractable time reversal and are biased. We propose Exact Non-equilibrium COntrol with Replica Exchange (ENCORE), the first exact parallel control method. Each replica stores its generation trajectory, so the upward move is a truncation and the intractable time reversal is never simulated. We prove target invariance and show that the resulting dynamics are those of non-equilibrium replica exchange with the exact time reversal as forward proposal. Under regularity conditions, our diffusion analysis shows that both sequential and parallel control become unstable under refinement of the time discretisation without guidance, whereas guided proposals remain stable and yield diagnostics for tuning the schedule and the computational budget. Across synthetic targets, Boltzmann sampling of biomolecules, and image generation, ENCORE achieves competitive accuracy and diversity, remains robust to sampler perturbations, and applies to distilled samplers where existing RE corrections are unavailable.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

FEAT: Free energy Estimators with Adaptive Transport

We present Free energy Estimators with Adaptive Transport (FEAT), a novel framework for free energy estimation -- a critical challenge across scientific domains. FEAT leverages learned transports implemented via stochastic interpolants and provides consistent, minimum-variance estimators based on escorted Jarzynski equality and controlled Crooks theorem, alongside variational upper and lower bounds on free energy differences. Unifying equilibrium and non-equilibrium methods under a single theoretical framework, FEAT establishes a principled foundation for neural free energy calculations. Experimental validation on toy examples, molecular simulations, and quantum field theory demonstrates improvements over existing learning-based methods. Our PyTorch implementation is available at https://github.com/jiajunhe98/FEAT.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Self-Confirming Superposition Traps in Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) trains representations on data selected by the agent's policy, which then uses the resulting returns to guide its next choices. We show that this loop can sustain a lower-return policy even when representation fitting is globally optimal on those data. In a self-confirming superposition trap, every optimal code assigns overlapping directions to features that rarely occur together under the current policy. An alternative action brings them together, causing interference that lowers its return and reinforces avoidance, although refitting to that action would yield more return at the same capacity. We characterize the dimensions admitting a trap in a tied two-step model and show separately that equal feature frequencies, continued visitation, and independent controller learning need not prevent it. Because fitting weights errors by visitation, an avoided action can lose its return advantage at little cost to the objective. In a finite-action model, we bound this distortion and derive a replay condition: sufficient training weight on the best separately adapted action preserves its ranking despite residual error. Neural PPO experiments show how the feedback develops during learning: agents initialized toward different actions develop different interference patterns, opposite mean return rankings, and different final policies at the same capacity. We therefore test whether retaining access to neglected states can improve control. Keeping these states in training reduces measured interference and improves sequential return, with gains even when the encoder is frozen. Related interventions on state access, replay weights, and feature overlap improve control on MiniGrid and DMControl. For agents that learn through a world model, protected fitting improves DreamerV3--Crafter's cumulative training scores at unchanged capacity.

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arXiv2026

Infinite-Parameter LLMs: Generating and Adapting Weights from Live Data

Scaling laws hold that language models grow more capable with more parameters and more training data. Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures are a remarkable demonstration of these laws, activating only a fraction of an enormous parameter bank for each token. But this success is built on static pretraining data --- the facts and corrections supplied by users during live interactions are a significant untapped source of potential improvement for a deployed model, but cannot be exploited by conventional architectures whose weights are frozen after training. Instead, this newfound knowledge must be placed in the context (by instruction or retrieval) and re-read on every request, only to be discarded afterwards. We seek instead to learn from live interactions by dynamically updating model weights. Inspired by MoEs, we propose the \textbf{Infinite-Parameter LLM}. A compact hypernetwork turns the online data into low-rank modulations of a shared base network, so feed-forward weights are generated from live data, not read from static memory. Whereas existing weight generators are held fixed after reading the context once, we form a Bayesian belief over the generator's latent state and update it online, such that the effective weights are re-derived as our belief evolves during the session. Although the model's memory footprint is constant, the feasible space of generated weights is thus effectively infinite. Representing live data in the weights rather than the prompt amortises compute, frees the context window, persists updates across turns, and can generalise better than in-context use. Our evaluation protocol applies this methodology to in-context learning and retrieval.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

When the Canonical Completion Is Wrong: Formalizing and Measuring the Jump in Large Language Models

Whether large language models (LLMs) can perform the abductive leap from evidence to a new system of axioms, commonly referred to as a jump, has recently attracted considerable debate. A prominent position holds that LLMs are structurally incapable of such jumps, while recent studies challenge both its mechanism and empirical evidence. One of the main reasons why the debate remains open is the difficulty of defining the jump precisely enough to test it. In this paper, we attempt to develop a formal account of the jump in four steps and measure the second. These steps ask what the default completion of partial data is, when the constraints exclude it, whether the new structure agrees with later observations, and how successive jumps compound. We define a \emph{jump instance} as a finite extension problem whose constraints exclude the canonical completions given by the Kan extensions and leave one correct completion up to renaming. In this setting, a model with a canonical default performs the second step by producing the correct completion under the constraints. We evaluate fourteen models across three certified families. The canonical completion returns once in $13{,}300$ constrained answers across all runs. Several calibrated models also give the correct completion reliably, including three API models that solve $159$ of $162$ primary chain trials, suggesting that they can jump at this step. We further formalize the third and fourth steps, whose empirical evaluation remains future work. We hope our work paves the path for formalizing and measuring the full jump in the future. The code of the paper is available at https://github.com/EEthanShi/kan-jump-test.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Feature Superposition in Neural Networks: From Theory to Practice

Superposition refers to neural networks representing more features than they have dimensions. It offers a possible explanation for polysemantic neurons and motivates methods for recovering interpretable features from neural activations. Theoretical models typically start with a given set of input features and assumptions about how their values vary across inputs, then study how a network encodes those values in a lower-dimensional hidden representation. Empirical work, by contrast, seeks to identify the features encoded in trained networks and determine their role in computation. In this survey, we review the geometry, learning, and computation of superposed representations, explaining how feature statistics and decoder choice affect the conclusions. To connect these theoretical accounts with evidence from trained networks, we compare practical methods for recovering and analyzing features and examine what their evaluations establish. Since accurate activation reconstruction alone does not establish feature identity or causal use, we discuss the methods' documented failures and applications in light of the evidence available for these different claims. Finally, we assess previously stated open problems and identify remaining theoretical and empirical questions about superposition in trained networks. We hope our work can pave the way for a deeper understanding of superposition and more reliable methods for interpreting neural networks.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Evaluating the Diversity of AI-Generated Content with Diversity Profiles

Diversity is a fundamental criterion for evaluating generative artificial intelligence (AI) systems, yet its measurement remains inherently ambiguous. Existing approaches typically represent generated samples in an embedding space, compute pairwise distances or similarities, and aggregate them into a single scalar score. Such scalar summaries are convenient, but they often encode different inductive biases and may yield contradictory rankings of the same sample sets. In this paper, we argue that diversity evaluation for AI-generated content is intrinsically under-specified when reduced to a single number. We first review representative diversity metrics, and then diagnose their limitations from two complementary perspectives: an axiomatic analysis showing that no representative scalar metric satisfies all desirable properties simultaneously, and an empirical analysis showing that high-dimensional representation spaces can induce concentrated, modality-dependent distance distributions. To address these issues, we propose diversity profiles: curve-valued, condition-aware summaries that evaluate a parameterized diversity family across a range of thresholds, scales, exponents, or orders under a specified representation and distance or kernel function. Diversity profiles reveal whether a comparison is robust across resolutions or instead depends on an arbitrary parameter choice. We instantiate profiles for several representative metric families and demonstrate their practical use in generative AI evaluation. Overall, diversity profiles provide a more transparent and resolution-aware framework for comparing the diversity of AI-generated content.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

PerturbPFN: Probing the Limits of Synthetic Priors in Drug Perturbation Modelling

Predicting cellular responses to unseen chemical perturbations is challenging due to unknown targets and mechanisms, high-dimensional expression responses, and limited experimental coverage of the large small-molecule design space. We propose PerturbPFN, a PFN-style amortized model for unknown-target perturbation prediction under a hierarchical synthetic structural prior. Instead of directly regressing high-dimensional expression responses, PerturbPFN infers a latent system graph, sparse atomic intervention targets, and intervention strengths, then propagates their effects through an SCM decoder. The model is trained entirely on prior-predictive synthetic episodes generated from biologically motivated graph and expression simulators, enabling structured in-context learning without test-time gradient updates. We evaluate PerturbPFN on both real single-cell perturbation data and synthetic benchmarks, covering effect prediction, target identification, and regulatory structure discovery. Our results show that PerturbPFN offers a complementary trade-off to specialized baselines, achieving competitive perturbation prediction with low inference cost while exposing interpretable intermediate estimates of targets, strengths, and system structure.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Warm-Starting Iterative Gaussian Processes for Faster Sequential Inference

Efficient Gaussian process (GP) inference is critical for sequential decision-making tasks such as active learning, online prediction, and Bayesian optimization. Iterative approaches of approximating the GP posterior using solvers like conjugate gradients, stochastic gradient descent, or alternating projections avoid cubic costs, but often require many iterations to converge, limiting their efficacy when the posterior is updated frequently with new data. To address this, we introduce three warm-start strategies that exploit solutions of smaller linear systems to substantially speed-up convergence when updating the posterior with new data. Our methods are supported by theoretical analysis showing reduced initialization error in reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) distance, and by empirical results on regression benchmarks and Bayesian optimization tasks. Across solvers, warm-starting achieves speed-ups of up to 19x when solving to tolerance, and produces more accurate posterior estimates under fixed compute budgets, directly improving optimization performance. These results establish warm-starting as a simple, effective, and broadly applicable tool for scaling Gaussian processes in sequential settings.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Recipes for Steering and Scaling LLMs via Sampling

Large Language Models (LLMs) are probabilistic models, typically defined by an autoregressive factorization. While recent work has begun to study richer target distributions beyond the base model, the sampling strategies remain highly inefficient. In this paper, we present a flexible and theoretically grounded framework for steering and scaling autoregressive LLMs with sampling. Within this framework, we describe two algorithms -- one based on Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and one based on Replica Exchange (RE) -- that steer generation toward powering, product or tilting of the base model distribution. We illustrate this framework through scaling the generation quality of LLMs without external supervision or reward models. Experimental results demonstrate our methods scale more favorably than Best-of-N and standard MCMC baselines. Overall, this paper offers a systematic recipe for probabilistic inference with LLMs via sampling.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Towards Diverse Scientific Hypothesis Search with Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) are on the rise for accelerating scientific discovery, most recently in advanced tasks such as generating valid scientific hypotheses. Yet in many discovery settings, the goal is not to identify a single best hypothesis since validation can be noisy and expensive, and scientists benefit from a set of high-quality alternative hypotheses that hedge against downstream uncertainty for the best solutions. Nevertheless, commonly used evolutionary search recipes tend to prioritize optimization over exploration in hypothesis generation, and the resulting selection pressure during the search process leads to diversity collapse. Motivated by these limitations, we formulate hypothesis search as a sampling problem, where the objective is to efficiently produce diverse, high-quality hypotheses under a fixed validation budget. Building on this perspective, we propose \ours, an evolutionary framework inspired by the classical parallel tempering algorithm that searches hypotheses at multiple temperature levels and enables principled information exchange across temperatures to improve exploration without disrupting convergence. Across domains including molecular discovery, equation discovery, and algorithm discovery, our approach consistently improves both hypothesis quality and diversity under the same validation budget, and produces candidates that remain robust under more expensive downstream computational validations.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Free energy Estimation on Any State Space

Free energy estimation is a fundamental yet challenging problem, from physics to statistics. Classical approaches rely on thermodynamic transformations, ranging from direct estimation, quasistatic integration, to finite-time averaging. Recent work [He and Du et al., 2025] learns neural transports to significantly accelerate the efficiency in the finite-time regime. In this paper, we generalize this framework to arbitrary state spaces. Building on this view, we develop a generalized neural transport learning approach for efficient estimation. Experiments validate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method beyond continuous settings, extending to discrete and multimodal spaces as well as autoregressive settings. Beyond free energy estimation, we establish algebraic identities and reveal a group-theoretic structure linking infinitesimal time reversal and generalized Doob's $h$-transforms, showing that their compositions form a generalized dihedral group.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Compression as Adaptation: Implicit Visual Representation with Diffusion Foundation Models

Modern visual generative models acquire rich visual knowledge through large-scale training, yet existing visual representations (such as pixels, latents, or tokens) remain external to the model and cannot directly exploit this knowledge for compact storage or reuse. In this work, we introduce a new visual representation framework that encodes a signal as a function, which is parametrized by low-rank adaptations attached to a frozen visual generative model. Such implicit representations of visual signals, \textit{e.g.}, an 81-frame video, can further be hashed into a single compact vector, achieving strong perceptual video compression at extremely low bitrates. Beyond basic compression, the functional nature of this representation enables inference-time scaling and control, allowing additional refinement on the compression performance. More broadly, as the implicit representations directly act as a function of the generation process, this suggests a unified framework bridging visual compression and generation.

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