arXiv subjects

José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Publications and source records attributed to José Miguel Hernández-Lobato.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Diffusive Classification Loss for Learning Energy-based Generative Models

Score-based generative models have recently achieved remarkable success. While they are usually parameterized by the score, an alternative way is to use a series of time-dependent energy-based models (EBMs), where the score is obtained from the negative input-gradient of the energy. Crucially, EBMs can be leveraged not only for generation, but also for tasks such as compositional sampling or building Boltzmann Generators via Monte Carlo methods. However, training EBMs remains challenging. Direct maximum likelihood is computationally prohibitive due to the need for nested sampling, while score matching, though efficient, suffers from mode blindness. To address these issues, we introduce the Diffusive Classification (DiffCLF) objective, a simple method that avoids blindness while remaining computationally efficient. DiffCLF reframes EBM learning as a supervised classification problem across noise levels, and can be seamlessly combined with standard score-based objectives. We validate the effectiveness of DiffCLF by comparing the estimated energies against ground truth in analytical Gaussian mixture cases, and by applying the trained models to tasks such as model composition and Boltzmann Generator sampling. Our results show that DiffCLF enables EBMs with higher fidelity and broader applicability than existing approaches.

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arXiv2026

RNE: plug-and-play diffusion inference-time control and energy-based training

Diffusion models generate data by removing noise gradually, which corresponds to the time-reversal of a noising process. However, access to only the denoising kernels is often insufficient. In many applications, we need the knowledge of the marginal densities along the generation trajectory, which enables tasks such as inference-time control. To address this gap, in this paper, we introduce the Radon-Nikodym Estimator (RNE). Based on the concept of the \textit{density ratio} between path distributions, it reveals a fundamental connection between marginal densities and transition kernels, providing a flexible plug-and-play framework that unifies (1) diffusion density estimation, (2) inference-time control, and (3) energy-based diffusion training under a single perspective. Experiments demonstrate that RNE delivers strong results in inference-time control applications, such as annealing and model composition, with promising inference-time scaling performance, and achieves a simple yet efficient regularisation for training energy-based diffusion models. Additionally, our proposed RNE is modality-agnostic and applicable not only to continuous diffusion models but also to their discrete diffusion counterparts.

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arXiv2026

Decoupled PFNs: Identifiable Epistemic-Aleatoric Decomposition via Structured Synthetic Priors

Prior-Fitted Networks (PFNs) amortize Bayesian prediction by meta-learning over a synthetic task prior, but their standard output is a posterior predictive distribution over noisy observations. For sequential decision-making, such as active learning and Bayesian optimization, acquisition should prioritize epistemic uncertainty about the latent signal rather than irreducible aleatoric observation noise. We show that this epistemic--aleatoric split is not identifiable in general from the posterior predictive distribution alone, even when that distribution is known exactly. We then exploit a distinctive advantage of PFNs: because the synthetic data-generating process is under our control, each task can contain an explicit latent signal and noise function, and the generator can provide query-level labels for both the noiseless target and the observation-noise variance. We use these labels to train a decoupled PFN with separate latent-signal and aleatoric heads. The observation-level predictive is induced by convolving the latent signal distribution with the learned noise model. Empirically, epistemic-only acquisition mitigates the failure mode of total-variance exploration in noisy and heteroscedastic settings. In matched comparisons, decoupled models usually improve over tuned observation-level baselines, with the clearest gains in HPO; in broader sweeps, a decoupled model obtains the best average rank in both HPO and synthetic BO.

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arXiv2026

Conditional Diffusion Sampling

Sampling from unnormalized multimodal distributions with limited density evaluations remains a fundamental challenge in machine learning and natural sciences. Successful approaches construct a bridge between a tractable reference and the target distribution. Parallel Tempering (PT) serves as the gold standard, while recent diffusion-based approaches offer a continuous alternative at the cost of neural training. In this work, we introduce Conditional Diffusion Sampling (CDS), a framework that combines these two paradigms. To this end, we derive Conditional Interpolants, a class of stochastic processes whose transport dynamics are governed by an exact, closed-form stochastic differential equation (SDE), requiring no neural approximation. Although these dynamics require sampling from a non-trivial initialization distribution, we show both theoretically and empirically that the cost of this initialization diminishes for sufficiently short diffusion times. CDS leverages this by a two-stage procedure: (1) PT is used to efficiently sample the initial distribution, and then (2) samples are transported via the transport SDE. This combination couples the robust global exploration of PT with efficient local transport. Experiments suggest that CDS has the potential to achieve a superior trade-off between sample quality and density evaluation cost compared to state-of-the-art samplers.

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arXiv2026

BNEM: A Boltzmann Sampler Based on Bootstrapped Noised Energy Matching

Developing an efficient sampler capable of generating independent and identically distributed (IID) samples from a Boltzmann distribution is a crucial challenge in scientific research, e.g. molecular dynamics. In this work, we intend to learn neural samplers given energy functions instead of data sampled from the Boltzmann distribution. By learning the energies of the noised data, we propose a diffusion-based sampler, Noised Energy Matching, which theoretically has lower variance and more complexity compared to related works. Furthermore, a novel bootstrapping technique is applied to NEM to balance between bias and variance. We evaluate NEM and BNEM on a 2-dimensional 40 Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) and a 4-particle double-well potential (DW-4). The experimental results demonstrate that BNEM can achieve state-of-the-art performance while being more robust.

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arXiv2026

Wiener Chaos Expansion based Neural Operator for Singular Stochastic Partial Differential Equations

In this paper, we explore how our recently developed Wiener Chaos Expansion (WCE)-based neural operator (NO) can be applied to singular stochastic partial differential equations, e.g., the dynamic $\boldsymbolΦ^4_2$ model simulated in the recent works. Unlike the previous WCE-NO which solves SPDEs by simply inserting Wick-Hermite features into the backbone NO model, we leverage feature-wise linear modulation (FiLM) to appropriately capture the dependency between the solution of singular SPDE and its smooth remainder. The resulting WCE-FiLM-NO shows excellent performance on $\boldsymbolΦ^4_2$, as measured by relative $L_2$ loss, out-of-distribution $L_2$ loss, and autocorrelation score; all without the help of renormalisation factor. In addition, we also show the potential of simulating $\boldsymbolΦ^4_3$ data, which is more aligned with real scientific practice in statistical quantum field theory. To the best of our knowledge, this is among the first works to develop an efficient data-driven surrogate for the dynamical $\boldsymbolΦ^4_3$ model.

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arXiv2026

CREPE: Controlling Diffusion with Replica Exchange

Inference-time control of diffusion models aims to steer model outputs to satisfy new constraints without retraining. Previous approaches have mostly relied on heuristic guidance or have been coupled with Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for bias correction. In this paper, we propose a flexible alternative based on replica exchange, an algorithm designed initially for sampling problems. We refer to this method as CREPE (Controlling with REPlica Exchange). Unlike SMC, CREPE: (1) generates particles sequentially, (2) maintains high diversity in the generated samples after a burn-in period, and (3) enables online refinement or early termination. We demonstrate its versatility across various tasks, including temperature annealing, reward-tilting, model composition and classifier-free guidance debiasing, with competitive performance compared to prior SMC methods.

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arXiv2026

Stochastic Interpolants in Hilbert Spaces

Although diffusion models have successfully extended to function-valued data, stochastic interpolants -- which offer a flexible way to bridge arbitrary distributions -- remain limited to finite-dimensional settings. This work bridges this gap by establishing a rigorous framework for stochastic interpolants in infinite-dimensional Hilbert spaces. We provide comprehensive theoretical foundations, including proofs of well-posedness and explicit error bounds. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for conditional generation, focusing particularly on complex PDE-based benchmarks. By enabling generative bridges between arbitrary functional distributions, our approach achieves state-of-the-art results, offering a powerful, general-purpose tool for scientific discovery.

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arXiv2026

There Was Never a Bottleneck in Concept Bottleneck Models

Deep learning representations are often difficult to interpret, which can hinder their deployment in sensitive applications. Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) have emerged as a promising approach to mitigate this issue by learning representations that support target task performance while ensuring that each component predicts a concrete concept from a predefined set. In this work, we argue that CBMs do not impose a true bottleneck: the fact that a component can predict a concept does not guarantee that it encodes only information about that concept. This shortcoming raises concerns regarding interpretability and the validity of intervention procedures. To overcome this limitation, we propose Minimal Concept Bottleneck Models (MCBMs), which incorporate an Information Bottleneck (IB) objective to constrain each representation component to retain only the information relevant to its corresponding concept. This IB is implemented via a variational regularization term added to the training loss. As a result, MCBMs yield more interpretable representations, support principled concept-level interventions, and remain consistent with probability-theoretic foundations.

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arXiv2026

Expanding the Chaos: Neural Operator for Stochastic (Partial) Differential Equations

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) are fundamental for modeling stochastic dynamics across the natural sciences and modern machine learning. Learning their solution operators with deep learning models promises fast solvers and new perspectives on classical learning tasks. In this work, we build on Wiener-chaos expansions (WCE) to design neural operator (NO) architectures for SDEs and SPDEs: we project driving noise paths onto orthonormal Wick-Hermite features and use NOs to parameterize the resulting chaos coefficients, enabling reconstruction of full trajectories from noise in a single forward pass. We also make the underlying WCE structure explicit for multi-dimensional SDEs and semilinear SPDEs by showing the coupled deterministic ODE/PDE systems governing these coefficients. Empirically, we achieve competitive accuracy across several tasks, including standard SPDE benchmarks and SDE-based diffusion one-step image sampling, topological graph interpolation, financial extrapolation, parameter estimation, and manifold SDE flood forecasting. These results suggest WCE-based neural operators are a practical and scalable approach to learning SDE/SPDE solution operators across domains.

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arXiv2026

DiffRatio: Training One-Step Diffusion Models Without Teacher Supervision

Score-based distillation methods (e.g., variational score distillation) train one-step diffusion models by first pre-training a teacher score model and then distilling it into a one-step student model. However, the gradient estimator in the distillation stage usually suffers from two sources of bias: (1) biased teacher supervision due to score estimation error incurred during pre-training, and (2) the student model's score estimation error during distillation. These biases can degrade the quality of the resulting one-step diffusion model. To address this, we propose DiffRatio, a new framework for training one-step diffusion models: instead of estimating the teacher and student scores independently and then taking their difference, we directly estimate the score difference as the gradient of a learned log density ratio between the student and data distributions across diffusion time steps. This approach greatly simplifies the training pipeline, significantly reduces gradient estimation bias, and improves one-step generation quality. Additionally, it also reduces auxiliary network size by using a lightweight density-ratio network instead of two full score networks, which improves computational and memory efficiency. DiffRatio achieves competitive one-step generation results on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet (64x64 and 512x512), outperforming most teacher-supervised distillation methods. Moreover, the learned density ratio naturally serves as a verifier, enabling a principled inference-time parallel scaling scheme that further improves the generation quality without external rewards or additional sequential computation.

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arXiv2025

Efficient and Unbiased Sampling from Boltzmann Distributions via Variance-Tuned Diffusion Models

Score-based diffusion models (SBDMs) are powerful amortized samplers for Boltzmann distributions; however, imperfect score estimates bias downstream Monte Carlo estimates. Classical importance sampling (IS) can correct this bias, but computing exact likelihoods requires solving the probability-flow ordinary differential equation (PF-ODE), a procedure that is prohibitively costly and scales poorly with dimensionality. We introduce Variance-Tuned Diffusion Importance Sampling (VT-DIS), a lightweight post-training method that adapts the per-step noise covariance of a pretrained SBDM by minimizing the $α$-divergence ($α=2$) between its forward diffusion and reverse denoising trajectories. VT-DIS assigns a single trajectory-wise importance weight to the joint forward-reverse process, yielding unbiased expectation estimates at test time with negligible overhead compared to standard sampling. On the DW-4, LJ-13, and alanine-dipeptide benchmarks, VT-DIS achieves effective sample sizes of approximately 80 %, 35 %, and 3.5 %, respectively, while using only a fraction of the computational budget required by vanilla diffusion + IS or PF-ODE-based IS.

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arXiv2025

Long-term Causal Inference via Modeling Sequential Latent Confounding

Long-term causal inference is an important but challenging problem across various scientific domains. To solve the latent confounding problem in long-term observational studies, existing methods leverage short-term experimental data. Ghassami et al. propose an approach based on the Conditional Additive Equi-Confounding Bias (CAECB) assumption, which asserts that the confounding bias in the short-term outcome is equal to that in the long-term outcome, so that the long-term confounding bias and the causal effects can be identified. While effective in certain cases, this assumption is limited to scenarios where there is only one short-term outcome with the same scale as the long-term outcome. In this paper, we introduce a novel assumption that extends the CAECB assumption to accommodate temporal short-term outcomes. Our proposed assumption states a functional relationship between sequential confounding biases across temporal short-term outcomes, under which we theoretically establish the identification of long-term causal effects. Based on the identification result, we develop an estimator and conduct a theoretical analysis of its asymptotic properties. Extensive experiments validate our theoretical results and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

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arXiv2025

Progressive Tempering Sampler with Diffusion

Recent research has focused on designing neural samplers that amortize the process of sampling from unnormalized densities. However, despite significant advancements, they still fall short of the state-of-the-art MCMC approach, Parallel Tempering (PT), when it comes to the efficiency of target evaluations. On the other hand, unlike a well-trained neural sampler, PT yields only dependent samples and needs to be rerun -- at considerable computational cost -- whenever new samples are required. To address these weaknesses, we propose the Progressive Tempering Sampler with Diffusion (PTSD), which trains diffusion models sequentially across temperatures, leveraging the advantages of PT to improve the training of neural samplers. We also introduce a novel method to combine high-temperature diffusion models to generate approximate lower-temperature samples, which are minimally refined using MCMC and used to train the next diffusion model. PTSD enables efficient reuse of sample information across temperature levels while generating well-mixed, uncorrelated samples. Our method significantly improves target evaluation efficiency, outperforming diffusion-based neural samplers.

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arXiv2025

Scalable Gaussian Processes with Latent Kronecker Structure

Applying Gaussian processes (GPs) to very large datasets remains a challenge due to limited computational scalability. Matrix structures, such as the Kronecker product, can accelerate operations significantly, but their application commonly entails approximations or unrealistic assumptions. In particular, the most common path to creating a Kronecker-structured kernel matrix is by evaluating a product kernel on gridded inputs that can be expressed as a Cartesian product. However, this structure is lost if any observation is missing, breaking the Cartesian product structure, which frequently occurs in real-world data such as time series. To address this limitation, we propose leveraging latent Kronecker structure, by expressing the kernel matrix of observed values as the projection of a latent Kronecker product. In combination with iterative linear system solvers and pathwise conditioning, our method facilitates inference of exact GPs while requiring substantially fewer computational resources than standard iterative methods. We demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art sparse and variational GPs on real-world datasets with up to five million examples, including robotics, automated machine learning, and climate applications.

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arXiv2025

Aligning Multimodal Representations through an Information Bottleneck

Contrastive losses have been extensively used as a tool for multimodal representation learning. However, it has been empirically observed that their use is not effective to learn an aligned representation space. In this paper, we argue that this phenomenon is caused by the presence of modality-specific information in the representation space. Although some of the most widely used contrastive losses maximize the mutual information between representations of both modalities, they are not designed to remove the modality-specific information. We give a theoretical description of this problem through the lens of the Information Bottleneck Principle. We also empirically analyze how different hyperparameters affect the emergence of this phenomenon in a controlled experimental setup. Finally, we propose a regularization term in the loss function that is derived by means of a variational approximation and aims to increase the representational alignment. We analyze in a set of controlled experiments and real-world applications the advantages of including this regularization term.

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arXiv2025

Best Practices for Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Optimization in Materials and Molecular Research

Multi-fidelity Bayesian Optimization (MFBO) is a promising framework to speed up materials and molecular discovery as sources of information of different accuracies are at hand at increasing cost. Despite its potential use in chemical tasks, there is a lack of systematic evaluation of the many parameters playing a role in MFBO. In this work, we provide guidelines and recommendations to decide when to use MFBO in experimental settings. We investigate MFBO methods applied to molecules and materials problems. First, we test two different families of acquisition functions in two synthetic problems and study the effect of the informativeness and cost of the approximate function. We use our implementation and guidelines to benchmark three real discovery problems and compare them against their single-fidelity counterparts. Our results may help guide future efforts to implement MFBO as a routine tool in the chemical sciences.

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arXiv2025

Batched Bayesian optimization by maximizing the probability of including the optimum

Batched Bayesian optimization (BO) can accelerate molecular design by efficiently identifying top-performing compounds from a large chemical library. Existing acquisition strategies for batch design in BO aim to balance exploration and exploitation. This often involves optimizing non-additive batch acquisition functions, necessitating approximation via myopic construction and/or diversity heuristics. In this work, we propose an acquisition strategy for discrete optimization that is motivated by pure exploitation, qPO (multipoint Probability of Optimality). qPO maximizes the probability that the batch includes the true optimum, which is expressible as the sum over individual acquisition scores and thereby circumvents the combinatorial challenge of optimizing a batch acquisition function. We differentiate the proposed strategy from parallel Thompson sampling and discuss how it implicitly captures diversity. Finally, we apply our method to the model-guided exploration of large chemical libraries and provide empirical evidence that it is competitive with and complements other state-of-the-art methods in batched Bayesian optimization.

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