arXiv subjects

Jose Blanchet

Publications and source records attributed to Jose Blanchet.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Single-Trajectory Distributionally Robust Reinforcement Learning

To mitigate the limitation that the classical reinforcement learning (RL) framework heavily relies on identical training and test environments, Distributionally Robust RL (DRRL) has been proposed to enhance performance across a range of environments, possibly including unknown test environments. As a price for robustness gain, DRRL involves optimizing over a set of distributions, which is inherently more challenging than optimizing over a fixed distribution in the non-robust case. Existing DRRL algorithms are either model-based or fail to learn from a single sample trajectory. In this paper, we design a first fully model-free DRRL algorithm, called distributionally robust Q-learning with single trajectory (DRQ). We delicately design a multi-timescale framework to fully utilize each incrementally arriving sample and directly learn the optimal distributionally robust policy without modelling the environment, thus the algorithm can be trained along a single trajectory in a model-free fashion. Despite the algorithm's complexity, we provide asymptotic convergence guarantees by generalizing classical stochastic approximation tools. Comprehensive experimental results demonstrate the superior robustness and sample complexity of our proposed algorithm, compared to non-robust methods and other robust RL algorithms.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Convolution Bounds on Quantile Aggregation

Quantile aggregation with dependence uncertainty has a long history in probability theory with wide applications in finance, risk management, statistics, and operations research. Using a recent result on inf-convolution of quantile-based risk measures, we establish new analytical bounds for quantile aggregation which we call convolution bounds. Convolution bounds both unify every analytical result available in quantile aggregation and enlighten our understanding of these methods. These bounds are the best available in general. Moreover, convolution bounds are easy to compute, and we show that they are sharp in many relevant cases. They also allow for interpretability on the extremal dependence structure. The results directly lead to bounds on the distribution of the sum of random variables with arbitrary dependence. We discuss relevant applications in risk management and economics.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2024

Sample Complexity of Variance-reduced Distributionally Robust Q-learning

Dynamic decision-making under distributional shifts is of fundamental interest in theory and applications of reinforcement learning: The distribution of the environment in which the data is collected can differ from that of the environment in which the model is deployed. This paper presents two novel model-free algorithms, namely the distributionally robust Q-learning and its variance-reduced counterpart, that can effectively learn a robust policy despite distributional shifts. These algorithms are designed to efficiently approximate the $q$-function of an infinite-horizon $γ$-discounted robust Markov decision process with Kullback-Leibler ambiguity set to an entry-wise $ε$-degree of precision. Further, the variance-reduced distributionally robust Q-learning combines the synchronous Q-learning with variance-reduction techniques to enhance its performance. Consequently, we establish that it attains a minimax sample complexity upper bound of $\tilde O(|\mathbf{S}||\mathbf{A}|(1-γ)^{-4}ε^{-2})$, where $\mathbf{S}$ and $\mathbf{A}$ denote the state and action spaces. This is the first complexity result that is independent of the ambiguity size $δ$, thereby providing new complexity theoretic insights. Additionally, a series of numerical experiments confirm the theoretical findings and the efficiency of the algorithms in handling distributional shifts.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

A Finite Sample Complexity Bound for Distributionally Robust Q-learning

We consider a reinforcement learning setting in which the deployment environment is different from the training environment. Applying a robust Markov decision processes formulation, we extend the distributionally robust $Q$-learning framework studied in Liu et al. [2022]. Further, we improve the design and analysis of their multi-level Monte Carlo estimator. Assuming access to a simulator, we prove that the worst-case expected sample complexity of our algorithm to learn the optimal robust $Q$-function within an $ε$ error in the sup norm is upper bounded by $\tilde O(|S||A|(1-γ)^{-5}ε^{-2}p_{\wedge}^{-6}δ^{-4})$, where $γ$ is the discount rate, $p_{\wedge}$ is the non-zero minimal support probability of the transition kernels and $δ$ is the uncertainty size. This is the first sample complexity result for the model-free robust RL problem. Simulation studies further validate our theoretical results.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Distributionally Robust Optimization as a Scalable Framework to Characterize Extreme Value Distributions

The goal of this paper is to develop distributionally robust optimization (DRO) estimators, specifically for multidimensional Extreme Value Theory (EVT) statistics. EVT supports using semi-parametric models called max-stable distributions built from spatial Poisson point processes. While powerful, these models are only asymptotically valid for large samples. However, since extreme data is by definition scarce, the potential for model misspecification error is inherent to these applications, thus DRO estimators are natural. In order to mitigate over-conservative estimates while enhancing out-of-sample performance, we study DRO estimators informed by semi-parametric max-stable constraints in the space of point processes. We study both tractable convex formulations for some problems of interest (e.g. CVaR) and more general neural network based estimators. Both approaches are validated using synthetically generated data, recovering prescribed characteristics, and verifying the efficacy of the proposed techniques. Additionally, the proposed method is applied to a real data set of financial returns for comparison to a previous analysis. We established the proposed model as a novel formulation in the multivariate EVT domain, and innovative with respect to performance when compared to relevant alternate proposals.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Generative Learning for Simulation of Vehicle Faults

We develop a novel generative model to simulate vehicle health and forecast faults, conditioned on practical operational considerations. The model, trained on data from the US Army's Predictive Logistics program, aims to support predictive maintenance. It forecasts faults far enough in advance to execute a maintenance intervention before a breakdown occurs. The model incorporates real-world factors that affect vehicle health. It also allows us to understand the vehicle's condition by analyzing operating data, and characterizing each vehicle into discrete states. Importantly, the model predicts the time to first fault with high accuracy. We compare its performance to other models and demonstrate its successful training.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Automatic Outlier Rectification via Optimal Transport

In this paper, we propose a novel conceptual framework to detect outliers using optimal transport with a concave cost function. Conventional outlier detection approaches typically use a two-stage procedure: first, outliers are detected and removed, and then estimation is performed on the cleaned data. However, this approach does not inform outlier removal with the estimation task, leaving room for improvement. To address this limitation, we propose an automatic outlier rectification mechanism that integrates rectification and estimation within a joint optimization framework. We take the first step to utilize the optimal transport distance with a concave cost function to construct a rectification set in the space of probability distributions. Then, we select the best distribution within the rectification set to perform the estimation task. Notably, the concave cost function we introduced in this paper is the key to making our estimator effectively identify the outlier during the optimization process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach over conventional approaches in simulations and empirical analyses for mean estimation, least absolute regression, and the fitting of option implied volatility surfaces.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Stability Evaluation via Distributional Perturbation Analysis

The performance of learning models often deteriorates when deployed in out-of-sample environments. To ensure reliable deployment, we propose a stability evaluation criterion based on distributional perturbations. Conceptually, our stability evaluation criterion is defined as the minimal perturbation required on our observed dataset to induce a prescribed deterioration in risk evaluation. In this paper, we utilize the optimal transport (OT) discrepancy with moment constraints on the \textit{(sample, density)} space to quantify this perturbation. Therefore, our stability evaluation criterion can address both \emph{data corruptions} and \emph{sub-population shifts} -- the two most common types of distribution shifts in real-world scenarios. To further realize practical benefits, we present a series of tractable convex formulations and computational methods tailored to different classes of loss functions. The key technical tool to achieve this is the strong duality theorem provided in this paper. Empirically, we validate the practical utility of our stability evaluation criterion across a host of real-world applications. These empirical studies showcase the criterion's ability not only to compare the stability of different learning models and features but also to provide valuable guidelines and strategies to further improve models.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Orthogonal Bootstrap: Efficient Simulation of Input Uncertainty

Bootstrap is a popular methodology for simulating input uncertainty. However, it can be computationally expensive when the number of samples is large. We propose a new approach called \textbf{Orthogonal Bootstrap} that reduces the number of required Monte Carlo replications. We decomposes the target being simulated into two parts: the \textit{non-orthogonal part} which has a closed-form result known as Infinitesimal Jackknife and the \textit{orthogonal part} which is easier to be simulated. We theoretically and numerically show that Orthogonal Bootstrap significantly reduces the computational cost of Bootstrap while improving empirical accuracy and maintaining the same width of the constructed interval.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Robustifying Conditional Portfolio Decisions via Optimal Transport

We propose a data-driven portfolio selection model that integrates side information, conditional estimation and robustness using the framework of distributionally robust optimization. Conditioning on the observed side information, the portfolio manager solves an allocation problem that minimizes the worst-case conditional risk-return trade-off, subject to all possible perturbations of the covariate-return probability distribution in an optimal transport ambiguity set. Despite the non-linearity of the objective function in the probability measure, we show that the distributionally robust portfolio allocation with side information problem can be reformulated as a finite-dimensional optimization problem. If portfolio decisions are made based on either the mean-variance or the mean-Conditional Value-at-Risk criterion, the resulting reformulation can be further simplified to second-order or semi-definite cone programs. Empirical studies in the US equity market demonstrate the advantage of our integrative framework against other benchmarks.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2024

When are Unbiased Monte Carlo Estimators More Preferable than Biased Ones?

Due to the potential benefits of parallelization, designing unbiased Monte Carlo estimators, primarily in the setting of randomized multilevel Monte Carlo, has recently become very popular in operations research and computational statistics. However, existing work primarily substantiates the benefits of unbiased estimators at an intuitive level or using empirical evaluations. The intuition being that unbiased estimators can be replicated in parallel enabling fast estimation in terms of wall-clock time. This intuition ignores that, typically, bias will be introduced due to impatience because most unbiased estimators necesitate random completion times. This paper provides a mathematical framework for comparing these methods under various metrics, such as completion time and overall computational cost. Under practical assumptions, our findings reveal that unbiased methods typically have superior completion times - the degree of superiority being quantifiable through the tail behavior of their running time distribution - but they may not automatically provide substantial savings in overall computational costs. We apply our findings to Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Multilevel Monte Carlo methods to identify the conditions and scenarios where unbiased methods have an advantage, thus assisting practitioners in making informed choices between unbiased and biased methods.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2024

Modeling Shortest Paths in Polymeric Networks using Spatial Branching Processes

Recent studies have established a connection between the macroscopic mechanical response of polymeric materials and the statistics of the shortest path (SP) length between distant nodes in the polymer network. Since these statistics can be costly to compute and difficult to study theoretically, we introduce a branching random walk (BRW) model to describe the SP statistics from the coarse-grained molecular dynamics (CGMD) simulations of polymer networks. We postulate that the first passage time (FPT) of the BRW to a given termination site can be used to approximate the statistics of the SP between distant nodes in the polymer network. We develop a theoretical framework for studying the FPT of spatial branching processes and obtain an analytical expression for estimating the FPT distribution as a function of the cross-link density. We demonstrate by extensive numerical calculations that the distribution of the FPT of the BRW model agrees well with the SP distribution from the CGMD simulations. The theoretical estimate and the corresponding numerical implementations of BRW provide an efficient way of approximating the SP distribution in a polymer network. Our results have the physical meaning that by accounting for the realistic topology of polymer networks, extensive bond-breaking is expected to occur at a much smaller stretch than that expected from idealized models assuming periodic network structures. Our work presents the first analysis of polymer networks as a BRW and sets the framework for developing a generalizable spatial branching model for studying the macroscopic evolution of polymeric systems.

math-ph↗

arXiv2024

Quadratic Speed-up in Infinite Variance Quantum Monte Carlo

In this study, we give an extension of Montanaro's arXiv/archive:1504.06987 quantum Monte Carlo method, tailored for computing expected values of random variables that exhibit infinite variance. This addresses a challenge in analyzing heavy-tailed distributions, which are commonly encountered in various scientific and engineering fields. Our quantum algorithm efficiently estimates means for variables with a finite $(1+δ)^{\text{th}}$ moment, where $δ$ lies between 0 and 1. It provides a quadratic speedup over the classical Monte Carlo method in both the accuracy parameter $ε$ and the specified moment of the distribution. We establish both classical and quantum lower bounds, showcasing the near-optimal efficiency of our algorithm among quantum methods. Our work focuses not on creating new algorithms, but on analyzing the execution of existing algorithms with available additional information about the random variable. Additionally, we categorize these scenarios and demonstrate a hierarchy in the types of supplementary information that can be provided.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2024

Optimal Sample Complexity for Average Reward Markov Decision Processes

We resolve the open question regarding the sample complexity of policy learning for maximizing the long-run average reward associated with a uniformly ergodic Markov decision process (MDP), assuming a generative model. In this context, the existing literature provides a sample complexity upper bound of $\widetilde O(|S||A|t_{\text{mix}}^2 ε^{-2})$ and a lower bound of $Ω(|S||A|t_{\text{mix}} ε^{-2})$. In these expressions, $|S|$ and $|A|$ denote the cardinalities of the state and action spaces respectively, $t_{\text{mix}}$ serves as a uniform upper limit for the total variation mixing times, and $ε$ signifies the error tolerance. Therefore, a notable gap of $t_{\text{mix}}$ still remains to be bridged. Our primary contribution is the development of an estimator for the optimal policy of average reward MDPs with a sample complexity of $\widetilde O(|S||A|t_{\text{mix}}ε^{-2})$. This marks the first algorithm and analysis to reach the literature's lower bound. Our new algorithm draws inspiration from ideas in Li et al. (2020), Jin and Sidford (2021), and Wang et al. (2023). Additionally, we conduct numerical experiments to validate our theoretical findings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Distributionally Robust Optimization and Robust Statistics

We review distributionally robust optimization (DRO), a principled approach for constructing statistical estimators that hedge against the impact of deviations in the expected loss between the training and deployment environments. Many well-known estimators in statistics and machine learning (e.g. AdaBoost, LASSO, ridge regression, dropout training, etc.) are distributionally robust in a precise sense. We hope that by discussing the DRO interpretation of well-known estimators, statisticians who may not be too familiar with DRO may find a way to access the DRO literature through the bridge between classical results and their DRO equivalent formulation. On the other hand, the topic of robustness in statistics has a rich tradition associated with removing the impact of contamination. Thus, another objective of this paper is to clarify the difference between DRO and classical statistical robustness. As we will see, these are two fundamentally different philosophies leading to completely different types of estimators. In DRO, the statistician hedges against an environment shift that occurs after the decision is made; thus DRO estimators tend to be pessimistic in an adversarial setting, leading to a min-max type formulation. In classical robust statistics, the statistician seeks to correct contamination that occurred before a decision is made; thus robust statistical estimators tend to be optimistic leading to a min-min type formulation.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Accelerated Sampling of Rare Events using a Neural Network Bias Potential

In the field of computational physics and material science, the efficient sampling of rare events occurring at atomic scale is crucial. It aids in understanding mechanisms behind a wide range of important phenomena, including protein folding, conformal changes, chemical reactions and materials diffusion and deformation. Traditional simulation methods, such as Molecular Dynamics and Monte Carlo, often prove inefficient in capturing the timescale of these rare events by brute force. In this paper, we introduce a practical approach by combining the idea of importance sampling with deep neural networks (DNNs) that enhance the sampling of these rare events. In particular, we approximate the variance-free bias potential function with DNNs which is trained to maximize the probability of rare event transition under the importance potential function. This method is easily scalable to high-dimensional problems and provides robust statistical guarantees on the accuracy of the estimated probability of rare event transition. Furthermore, our algorithm can actively generate and learn from any successful samples, which is a novel improvement over existing methods. Using a 2D system as a test bed, we provide comparisons between results obtained from different training strategies, traditional Monte Carlo sampling and numerically solved optimal bias potential function under different temperatures. Our numerical results demonstrate the efficacy of the DNN-based importance sampling of rare events.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Payoff-based learning with matrix multiplicative weights in quantum games

In this paper, we study the problem of learning in quantum games - and other classes of semidefinite games - with scalar, payoff-based feedback. For concreteness, we focus on the widely used matrix multiplicative weights (MMW) algorithm and, instead of requiring players to have full knowledge of the game (and/or each other's chosen states), we introduce a suite of minimal-information matrix multiplicative weights (3MW) methods tailored to different information frameworks. The main difficulty to attaining convergence in this setting is that, in contrast to classical finite games, quantum games have an infinite continuum of pure states (the quantum equivalent of pure strategies), so standard importance-weighting techniques for estimating payoff vectors cannot be employed. Instead, we borrow ideas from bandit convex optimization and we design a zeroth-order gradient sampler adapted to the semidefinite geometry of the problem at hand. As a first result, we show that the 3MW method with deterministic payoff feedback retains the $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{T})$ convergence rate of the vanilla, full information MMW algorithm in quantum min-max games, even though the players only observe a single scalar. Subsequently, we relax the algorithm's information requirements even further and we provide a 3MW method that only requires players to observe a random realization of their payoff observable, and converges to equilibrium at an $\mathcal{O}(T^{-1/4})$ rate. Finally, going beyond zero-sum games, we show that a regularized variant of the proposed 3MW method guarantees local convergence with high probability to all equilibria that satisfy a certain first-order stability condition.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2023

Universal Gradient Descent Ascent Method for Nonconvex-Nonconcave Minimax Optimization

Nonconvex-nonconcave minimax optimization has received intense attention over the last decade due to its broad applications in machine learning. Most existing algorithms rely on one-sided information, such as the convexity (resp. concavity) of the primal (resp. dual) functions, or other specific structures, such as the Polyak-Łojasiewicz (PŁ) and Kurdyka-Łojasiewicz (KŁ) conditions. However, verifying these regularity conditions is challenging in practice. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel universally applicable single-loop algorithm, the doubly smoothed gradient descent ascent method (DS-GDA), which naturally balances the primal and dual updates. That is, DS-GDA with the same hyperparameters is able to uniformly solve nonconvex-concave, convex-nonconcave, and nonconvex-nonconcave problems with one-sided KŁ properties, achieving convergence with $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-4})$ complexity. Sharper (even optimal) iteration complexity can be obtained when the KŁ exponent is known. Specifically, under the one-sided KŁ condition with exponent $θ\in(0,1)$, DS-GDA converges with an iteration complexity of $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-2\max\{2θ,1\}})$. They all match the corresponding best results in the literature. Moreover, we show that DS-GDA is practically applicable to general nonconvex-nonconcave problems even without any regularity conditions, such as the PŁ condition, KŁ condition, or weak Minty variational inequalities condition. For various challenging nonconvex-nonconcave examples in the literature, including ``Forsaken'', ``Bilinearly-coupled minimax'', ``Sixth-order polynomial'', and ``PolarGame'', the proposed DS-GDA can all get rid of limit cycles. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first first-order algorithm to achieve convergence on all of these formidable problems.

math.OC↗