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Jose Blanchet

Publications and source records attributed to Jose Blanchet.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
arXiv2023

Large deviations asymptotics for unbounded additive functionals of diffusion processes

We study large deviations asymptotics for a class of unbounded additive functionals, interpreted as normalized accumulated areas, of one-dimensional Langevin diffusions with sub-linear gradient drifts. Our results provide parametric insights on the speed and the rate functions in terms of the growth rate of the drift and the growth rate of the additive functional. We find a critical value in terms of these growth parameters that dictates regions of sub-linear speed for our large deviations asymptotics. Our approach is based upon various constructions of independent interest, including a decomposition of the diffusion process in terms of alternating renewal cycles and a detailed analysis of the paths during a cycle using suitable time and spatial scales. The key to the sub-linear behavior is a heavy-tailed large deviations phenomenon arising from the principle of a single big jump coupled with the result that at each regeneration cycle the upper-tail asymptotic behavior of the accumulated area of the diffusion process is proven to be semi-exponential (i.e., of heavy-tailed Weibull type).

math.PR↗
arXiv2023

Sample-path large deviations for unbounded additive functionals of the reflected random walk

We prove a sample path large deviation principle (LDP) with sub-linear speed for unbounded functionals of certain Markov chains induced by the Lindley recursion. The LDP holds in the Skorokhod space $\mathbb{D}[0,T]$ equipped with the $M_1'$ topology. Our technique hinges on a suitable decomposition of the Markov chain in terms of regeneration cycles. Each regeneration cycle denotes the area accumulated during the busy period of the reflected random walk. We prove a large deviation principle for the area under the busy period of the MRW, and we show that it exhibits a heavy-tailed behavior.

math.PR↗
arXiv2023

Distributionally Robust Batch Contextual Bandits

Policy learning using historical observational data is an important problem that has found widespread applications. Examples include selecting offers, prices, advertisements to send to customers, as well as selecting which medication to prescribe to a patient. However, existing literature rests on the crucial assumption that the future environment where the learned policy will be deployed is the same as the past environment that has generated the data -- an assumption that is often false or too coarse an approximation. In this paper, we lift this assumption and aim to learn a distributionally robust policy with incomplete observational data. We first present a policy evaluation procedure that allows us to assess how well the policy does under the worst-case environment shift. We then establish a central limit theorem type guarantee for this proposed policy evaluation scheme. Leveraging this evaluation scheme, we further propose a novel learning algorithm that is able to learn a policy that is robust to adversarial perturbations and unknown covariate shifts with a performance guarantee based on the theory of uniform convergence. Finally, we empirically test the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm in synthetic datasets and demonstrate that it provides the robustness that is missing using standard policy learning algorithms. We conclude the paper by providing a comprehensive application of our methods in the context of a real-world voting dataset.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Double Pessimism is Provably Efficient for Distributionally Robust Offline Reinforcement Learning: Generic Algorithm and Robust Partial Coverage

In this paper, we study distributionally robust offline reinforcement learning (robust offline RL), which seeks to find an optimal policy purely from an offline dataset that can perform well in perturbed environments. In specific, we propose a generic algorithm framework called Doubly Pessimistic Model-based Policy Optimization ($P^2MPO$), which features a novel combination of a flexible model estimation subroutine and a doubly pessimistic policy optimization step. Notably, the double pessimism principle is crucial to overcome the distributional shifts incurred by (i) the mismatch between the behavior policy and the target policies; and (ii) the perturbation of the nominal model. Under certain accuracy conditions on the model estimation subroutine, we prove that $P^2MPO$ is sample-efficient with robust partial coverage data, which only requires the offline data to have good coverage of the distributions induced by the optimal robust policy and the perturbed models around the nominal model. By tailoring specific model estimation subroutines for concrete examples of RMDPs, including tabular RMDPs, factored RMDPs, kernel and neural RMDPs, we prove that $P^2MPO$ enjoys a $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(n^{-1/2})$ convergence rate, where $n$ is the dataset size. We highlight that all these examples, except tabular RMDPs, are first identified and proven tractable by this work. Furthermore, we continue our study of robust offline RL in the robust Markov games (RMGs). By extending the double pessimism principle identified for single-agent RMDPs, we propose another algorithm framework that can efficiently find the robust Nash equilibria among players using only robust unilateral (partial) coverage data. To our best knowledge, this work proposes the first general learning principle -- double pessimism -- for robust offline RL and shows that it is provably efficient with general function approximation.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Minimax Optimal Kernel Operator Learning via Multilevel Training

Learning mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces has achieved empirical success in many disciplines of machine learning, including generative modeling, functional data analysis, causal inference, and multi-agent reinforcement learning. In this paper, we study the statistical limit of learning a Hilbert-Schmidt operator between two infinite-dimensional Sobolev reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. We establish the information-theoretic lower bound in terms of the Sobolev Hilbert-Schmidt norm and show that a regularization that learns the spectral components below the bias contour and ignores the ones that are above the variance contour can achieve the optimal learning rate. At the same time, the spectral components between the bias and variance contours give us flexibility in designing computationally feasible machine learning algorithms. Based on this observation, we develop a multilevel kernel operator learning algorithm that is optimal when learning linear operators between infinite-dimensional function spaces.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

When can Regression-Adjusted Control Variates Help? Rare Events, Sobolev Embedding and Minimax Optimality

This paper studies the use of a machine learning-based estimator as a control variate for mitigating the variance of Monte Carlo sampling. Specifically, we seek to uncover the key factors that influence the efficiency of control variates in reducing variance. We examine a prototype estimation problem that involves simulating the moments of a Sobolev function based on observations obtained from (random) quadrature nodes. Firstly, we establish an information-theoretic lower bound for the problem. We then study a specific quadrature rule that employs a nonparametric regression-adjusted control variate to reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo simulation. We demonstrate that this kind of quadrature rule can improve the Monte Carlo rate and achieve the minimax optimal rate under a sufficient smoothness assumption. Due to the Sobolev Embedding Theorem, the sufficient smoothness assumption eliminates the existence of rare and extreme events. Finally, we show that, in the presence of rare and extreme events, a truncated version of the Monte Carlo algorithm can achieve the minimax optimal rate while the control variate cannot improve the convergence rate.

math.ST↗
arXiv2023

Efficient Scenario Generation for Heavy-tailed Chance Constrained Optimization

We consider a generic class of chance-constrained optimization problems with heavy-tailed (i.e., power-law type) risk factors. In this setting, we use the scenario approach to obtain a constant approximation to the optimal solution with a computational complexity that is uniform in the risk tolerance parameter. We additionally illustrate the efficiency of our algorithm in the context of solvency in insurance networks.

math.OC↗
arXiv2023

Neural Network Accelerated Process Design of Polycrystalline Microstructures

Computational experiments are exploited in finding a well-designed processing path to optimize material structures for desired properties. This requires understanding the interplay between the processing-(micro)structure-property linkages using a multi-scale approach that connects the macro-scale (process parameters) to meso (homogenized properties) and micro (crystallographic texture) scales. Due to the nature of the problem's multi-scale modeling setup, possible processing path choices could grow exponentially as the decision tree becomes deeper, and the traditional simulators' speed reaches a critical computational threshold. To lessen the computational burden for predicting microstructural evolution under given loading conditions, we develop a neural network (NN)-based method with physics-infused constraints. The NN aims to learn the evolution of microstructures under each elementary process. Our method is effective and robust in finding optimal processing paths. In this study, our NN-based method is applied to maximize the homogenized stiffness of a Copper microstructure, and it is found to be 686 times faster while achieving 0.053% error in the resulting homogenized stiffness compared to the traditional finite element simulator on a 10-process experiment.

cs.CE↗
arXiv2023

Time-Series Imputation with Wasserstein Interpolation for Optimal Look-Ahead-Bias and Variance Tradeoff

Missing time-series data is a prevalent practical problem. Imputation methods in time-series data often are applied to the full panel data with the purpose of training a model for a downstream out-of-sample task. For example, in finance, imputation of missing returns may be applied prior to training a portfolio optimization model. Unfortunately, this practice may result in a look-ahead-bias in the future performance on the downstream task. There is an inherent trade-off between the look-ahead-bias of using the full data set for imputation and the larger variance in the imputation from using only the training data. By connecting layers of information revealed in time, we propose a Bayesian posterior consensus distribution which optimally controls the variance and look-ahead-bias trade-off in the imputation. We demonstrate the benefit of our methodology both in synthetic and real financial data.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2023

Bayesian Imputation with Optimal Look-Ahead-Bias and Variance Tradeoff

Missing time-series data is a prevalent problem in many prescriptive analytics models in operations management, healthcare and finance. Imputation methods for time-series data are usually applied to the full panel data with the purpose of training a prescriptive model for a downstream out-of-sample task. For example, the imputation of missing asset returns may be applied before estimating an optimal portfolio allocation. However, this practice can result in a look-ahead-bias in the future performance of the downstream task, and there is an inherent trade-off between the look-ahead-bias of using the entire data set for imputation and the larger variance of using only the training portion of the data set for imputation. By connecting layers of information revealed in time, we propose a Bayesian consensus posterior that fuses an arbitrary number of posteriors to optimize the variance and look-ahead-bias trade-off in the imputation. We derive tractable two-step optimization procedures for finding the optimal consensus posterior, with Kullback-Leibler divergence and Wasserstein distance as the dissimilarity measure between posterior distributions. We demonstrate in simulations and in an empirical study the benefit of our imputation mechanism for portfolio allocation with missing returns.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2023

Statistical Limit Theorems in Distributionally Robust Optimization

The goal of this paper is to develop methodology for the systematic analysis of asymptotic statistical properties of data driven DRO formulations based on their corresponding non-DRO counterparts. We illustrate our approach in various settings, including both phi-divergence and Wasserstein uncertainty sets. Different types of asymptotic behaviors are obtained depending on the rate at which the uncertainty radius decreases to zero as a function of the sample size and the geometry of the uncertainty sets.

math.OC↗
arXiv2023

A Convergent Single-Loop Algorithm for Relaxation of Gromov-Wasserstein in Graph Data

In this work, we present the Bregman Alternating Projected Gradient (BAPG) method, a single-loop algorithm that offers an approximate solution to the Gromov-Wasserstein (GW) distance. We introduce a novel relaxation technique that balances accuracy and computational efficiency, albeit with some compromises in the feasibility of the coupling map. Our analysis is based on the observation that the GW problem satisfies the Luo-Tseng error bound condition, which relates to estimating the distance of a point to the critical point set of the GW problem based on the optimality residual. This observation allows us to provide an approximation bound for the distance between the fixed-point set of BAPG and the critical point set of GW. Moreover, under a mild technical assumption, we can show that BAPG converges to its fixed point set. The effectiveness of BAPG has been validated through comprehensive numerical experiments in graph alignment and partition tasks, where it outperforms existing methods in terms of both solution quality and wall-clock time.

cs.CG↗
arXiv2023

Dynamic Flows on Curved Space Generated by Labeled Data

The scarcity of labeled data is a long-standing challenge for many machine learning tasks. We propose our gradient flow method to leverage the existing dataset (i.e., source) to generate new samples that are close to the dataset of interest (i.e., target). We lift both datasets to the space of probability distributions on the feature-Gaussian manifold, and then develop a gradient flow method that minimizes the maximum mean discrepancy loss. To perform the gradient flow of distributions on the curved feature-Gaussian space, we unravel the Riemannian structure of the space and compute explicitly the Riemannian gradient of the loss function induced by the optimal transport metric. For practical applications, we also propose a discretized flow, and provide conditional results guaranteeing the global convergence of the flow to the optimum. We illustrate the results of our proposed gradient flow method on several real-world datasets and show our method can improve the accuracy of classification models in transfer learning settings.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Distributionally Robust Offline Reinforcement Learning with Linear Function Approximation

Among the reasons hindering reinforcement learning (RL) applications to real-world problems, two factors are critical: limited data and the mismatch between the testing environment (real environment in which the policy is deployed) and the training environment (e.g., a simulator). This paper attempts to address these issues simultaneously with distributionally robust offline RL, where we learn a distributionally robust policy using historical data obtained from the source environment by optimizing against a worst-case perturbation thereof. In particular, we move beyond tabular settings and consider linear function approximation. More specifically, we consider two settings, one where the dataset is well-explored and the other where the dataset has sufficient coverage of the optimal policy. We propose two algorithms~-- one for each of the two settings~-- that achieve error bounds $\tilde{O}(d^{1/2}/N^{1/2})$ and $\tilde{O}(d^{3/2}/N^{1/2})$ respectively, where $d$ is the dimension in the linear function approximation and $N$ is the number of trajectories in the dataset. To the best of our knowledge, they provide the first non-asymptotic results of the sample complexity in this setting. Diverse experiments are conducted to demonstrate our theoretical findings, showing the superiority of our algorithm against the non-robust one.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

Unbiased Optimal Stopping via the MUSE

We propose a new unbiased estimator for estimating the utility of the optimal stopping problem. The MUSE, short for Multilevel Unbiased Stopping Estimator, constructs the unbiased Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator at every stage of the optimal stopping problem in a backward recursive way. In contrast to traditional sequential methods, the MUSE can be implemented in parallel. We prove the MUSE has finite variance, finite computational complexity, and achieves $ε$-accuracy with $O(1/ε^2)$ computational cost under mild conditions. We demonstrate MUSE empirically in an option pricing problem involving a high-dimensional input and the use of many parallel processors.

stat.CO↗
arXiv2022

Fast and Provably Convergent Algorithms for Gromov-Wasserstein in Graph Data

In this paper, we study the design and analysis of a class of efficient algorithms for computing the Gromov-Wasserstein (GW) distance tailored to large-scale graph learning tasks. Armed with the Luo-Tseng error bound condition~\citep{luo1992error}, two proposed algorithms, called Bregman Alternating Projected Gradient (BAPG) and hybrid Bregman Proximal Gradient (hBPG) enjoy the convergence guarantees. Upon task-specific properties, our analysis further provides novel theoretical insights to guide how to select the best-fit method. As a result, we are able to provide comprehensive experiments to validate the effectiveness of our methods on a host of tasks, including graph alignment, graph partition, and shape matching. In terms of both wall-clock time and modeling performance, the proposed methods achieve state-of-the-art results.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

Surgical Scheduling via Optimization and Machine Learning with Long-Tailed Data

Using data from cardiovascular surgery patients with long and highly variable post-surgical lengths of stay (LOS), we develop a modeling framework to reduce recovery unit congestion. We estimate the LOS and its probability distribution using machine learning models, schedule procedures on a rolling basis using a variety of optimization models, and estimate performance with simulation. The machine learning models achieved only modest LOS prediction accuracy, despite access to a very rich set of patient characteristics. Compared to the current paper-based system used in the hospital, most optimization models failed to reduce congestion without increasing wait times for surgery. A conservative stochastic optimization with sufficient sampling to capture the long tail of the LOS distribution outperformed the current manual process and other stochastic and robust optimization approaches. These results highlight the perils of using oversimplified distributional models of LOS for scheduling procedures and the importance of using optimization methods well-suited to dealing with long-tailed behavior.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

Synthetic Principal Component Design: Fast Covariate Balancing with Synthetic Controls

The optimal design of experiments typically involves solving an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem. In this paper, we aim to develop a globally convergent and practically efficient optimization algorithm. Specifically, we consider a setting where the pre-treatment outcome data is available and the synthetic control estimator is invoked. The average treatment effect is estimated via the difference between the weighted average outcomes of the treated and control units, where the weights are learned from the observed data. {Under this setting, we surprisingly observed that the optimal experimental design problem could be reduced to a so-called \textit{phase synchronization} problem.} We solve this problem via a normalized variant of the generalized power method with spectral initialization. On the theoretical side, we establish the first global optimality guarantee for experiment design when pre-treatment data is sampled from certain data-generating processes. Empirically, we conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on both the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Abadie-Diemond-Hainmueller California Smoking Data. In terms of the root mean square error, our algorithm surpasses the random design by a large margin.

econ.EM↗