arXiv subjects

Joshua N. Winn

Publications and source records attributed to Joshua N. Winn.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Constraining the Planetary Obliquity Distribution of Warm Jupiters

Warm Jupiters are an intriguing class of planets with uncertain origins. Their planetary obliquities could help distinguish between different formation pathways: planet-planet scattering and migration across resonances can excite large obliquities, whereas in-situ formation would more naturally produce low obliquities. We searched for oblateness-related anomalies in the transit light curves of six observationally favorable warm Jupiters: TOI-201b, TOI-1670c, TOI-199b, Kepler-9c, Kepler-30c, and Kepler-553c. Each planet's light curve is consistent with a spherical planet and provides degenerate constraints on the planet's sky-projected oblateness and obliquity. To overcome these limitations, we performed hierarchical Bayesian modeling of the population-level obliquity distribution. Assuming warm Jupiters are as oblate as Saturn ($f \approx 0.1$), we find their median obliquity to be below $12^\circ$ with $90$% confidence and below Saturn's obliquity ($27^\circ$) with $93$% confidence. Jupiter-like oblateness ($f \approx 0.06$) and larger obliquities are allowed. Simulations of JWST observations predict that significantly tighter constraints can be derived.

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arXiv2026

Does HD 3167 Have Planets with Perpendicular Orbits?

The two transiting planets of HD 3167 were reported to follow nearly perpendicular paths, with the inner orbit aligned with the stellar equator and the outer orbit nearly polar. This interpretation depends critically on a challenging single-transit detection of the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect of the inner planet. We observed three additional transits of the inner planet with the Keck Planet Finder and analyzed the new data together with two archival ESPRESSO transit datasets. We do not confirm the previously reported low obliquity. Our analysis favors a projected obliquity of $-66^{+14}_{-12}$ degrees, consistent with coplanar orbits. However, because the best-fit projected rotation velocity is higher than expected, and because the obliquity uncertainty grows substantially when the most discrepant of the five transit datasets is omitted, we regard the geometry of the HD 3167 system as still unsettled.

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arXiv2026

The Mysterious Inspiral of WASP-12b: Why Obliquity Tides Cannot Drive Orbital Decay

WASP-12b's orbit is decaying, for unknown reasons. The planet's period is shrinking more rapidly than can be attributed to equilibrium tides or dynamical tides in a main-sequence star. Planetary obliquity tides could be sufficiently dissipative to drive WASP-12b's inspiral, but would also damp the planet's obliquity, halting the decay. Millholland & Laughlin proposed that a nearby, low-mass planet ($\sim 10$ M$_\oplus$) is maintaining a large obliquity for WASP-12b, sustaining the dissipation. We re-evaluated this hypothesis, finding that the companion must be more massive than originally proposed ($\gtrsim 65$ M$_\oplus$) to absorb WASP-12b's orbital angular momentum. Radial velocity data allowed us to rule out a companion of this type. Any companions within $3$ AU have $K \lesssim 14$ m/s at $95$% confidence.

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arXiv2026

Constraining Tidal Migration with the Hot Jupiter Population

Hot Jupiters with orbital periods shorter than a few days have probably been affected by tidal orbital migration. We develop an analytical framework for constraining tidal migration from the present-day hot Jupiter period distribution, taking into account the uncertain rate and period distribution of hot Jupiters produced by mechanisms such as high-eccentricity migration or disk-driven migration. Assuming the tidal migration timescale is proportional to $P^{χ_τ}$, solutions with $χ_τ\simeq 3, 1.7,$ and 5.6 are all compatible with the present-day period distribution. The $χ_τ\simeq 3$ solution is consistent with equilibrium tides with suppression of dissipation at short periods, and implies that newly circularized hot Jupiters have periods concentrated near $3-4$ days, as predicted in some high-eccentricity migration models. The $χ_τ\simeq 1.7$ solution is also compatible with the $3-4$ day peak but has no clear counterpart in existing tidal theories and is more finely tuned. The $χ_τ\simeq 5.6$ solution is compatible with enhanced short-period equilibrium tidal dissipation or weakly nonlinear gravity-wave dissipation, but requires circularization at unexpectedly short periods. Thus, we find the model with $χ_τ\simeq 3$ most appealing. Transit timing of individual systems and observational constraints on the rate of hot Jupiter engulfment provide additional constraints, which are presently inconclusive but should improve with future data. Improved measurements of the occurrence of short-period planets as a function of planet mass and system age could also help to sharpen the constraints on tidal migration.

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arXiv2026

Radial velocity follow-up of \textit{Gaia} astrometric substellar companions: six confirmed brown dwarfs and 13 impostor binaries

With microarcsecond precision, \textit{Gaia} has made the astrometric discovery of substellar companions feasible. However, follow-up observations are needed to check on orbital solutions and rule out astrophysical false positives. We validate and characterise a sample of 20 \textit{Gaia} Data Release 3 (DR3) astrometric candidates for substellar companions, with the dual goal of identifying false positives and deriving robust physical parameters for genuine companions. We performed high-resolution spectroscopy using FIES, NIRPS, and NEID at the Nordic Optical Telescope, the ESO 3.6m telescope, and the WIYN Telescope, respectively. Double-lined spectroscopic binaries were identified as false positives, and surviving systems were characterised through joint \textit{Gaia} astrometry and radial velocity modelling. Thirteen of the candidates proved to be near-twin binary stars for which the astrometric motion of the center of light is small enough to mimic that of a single star in response to a substellar companion. We confirm that six companions are brown dwarfs with masses in the range ${\sim}26$--$68\,M_\mathrm{Jup}$, two of them for the first time. In contrast to earlier studies of lower-mass \textit{Gaia} candidates, we find that the astrometric orbital solutions are generally reliable to within the stated uncertainties.

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arXiv2026

POSEIDON III: The Aligned Orbit of the Hot Neptune Around the Hot Star WASP-195

Stellar obliquities provide important clues as to the formation and migration histories of planetary systems, but measurements remain scarce for Neptune-mass planets, especially those orbiting hot stars (above the Kraft break). Here we present observations of the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect in the hot-star/hot-Neptune system WASP-195 ($T_{\rm eff}=6470\pm100$ K, $v\sin{i_\star}=10.5\pm1.1$ km s$^{-1}$) obtained with the Keck Planet Finder and NEID spectrographs. A joint analysis of these observations, archival photometry, and archival radial velocities yields a sky-projected stellar obliquity of $λ=-10\pm7^\circ$, consistent with spin-orbit alignment. This makes WASP-195 one of the few hot-star/hot-Neptune systems with a measured obliquity. Archival radial velocities from SOPHIE exclude Jupiter-mass planets within approximately 3 au at $5σ$ confidence. The aligned and nearly circular orbit is naturally consistent with a history of disk-driven migration, although coplanar high-eccentricity migration or Roche-lobe overflow cannot be ruled out. We also investigate why so few Neptunes around hot stars have measured obliquities. Their scarcity likely reflects a combination of the lower intrinsic occurrence of short-period Neptunes around hot stars and the difficulty of confirming planet candidates in this regime, where rapid stellar rotation broadens spectral lines and hampers conventional radial-velocity confirmation. Rapid rotation also increases the detectability of the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect, a feature that could help to widen the planet confirmation bottleneck while expanding the obliquity census of small planets around hot stars.

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arXiv2026

Spin-Orbit Alignment of Two Neptune-size Planets Younger than 500 Myr: TOI-560 b and TOI-5082 b

Stellar obliquity measurements provide a direct probe of planetary system dynamics, but remain sparse for Neptune-size planets, particularly at young ages. We present Rossiter-McLaughlin measurements for two young Neptune-size planets, TOI-560 b and TOI-5082 b, using time-resolved Keck Planet Finder (KPF) spectroscopy and joint modeling with TESS transit photometry. We measure sky-projected obliquities of $λ_b = -25 \pm 16^\circ$ for TOI-560 b and $λ_b = 19^{+17}_{-13}{}^\circ$ for TOI-5082 b. Combining these constraints with stellar rotation periods and spectroscopic estimates of $v\sin i_\star$, we obtain 95% upper limits of $ψ< 69.7^\circ$ and $ψ< 50.5^\circ$, respectively. Both systems are therefore consistent with low-to-moderate true obliquities and show no evidence of strong spin-orbit misalignment. With ages of $480 \pm 190$ Myr for TOI-560 b and $180 \pm 9$ Myr for TOI-5082 b (a likely member of the CRIUS197 stellar association), the systems are in a key evolutionary phase when post-disk dynamical processes such as secular interactions may begin to manifest. Nevertheless, both systems remain consistent with low obliquity. In the broader context of young systems with existing measurements, these results support an emerging picture in which Neptune-size planets at $\lesssim 1$ Gyr are commonly found in low-obliquity configurations.

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arXiv2026

The Orbital Eccentricity--Radius Distribution for Warm, Single Planets in TESS

We characterize the radius-dependent eccentricity distribution of 219 warm (P = 8--50 days) systems with only one transiting planetary candidate identified during Sectors 1-69 of the TESS mission. Using the ``photoeccentric effect'' in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we first model the population using discrete planetary size bins (sub-Neptunes, sub-Saturns, and Jovians). We then develop a continuous mixture model with weights governed by a logistic sigmoid function of radius. We find that the warm-single population is best described by two components: a dominant low-eccentricity mode ( = 0.039-0.038+0.018) and a secondary dynamically excited mode ( = 0.466-0.068+0.067). The fraction of planets belonging to this high-eccentricity component increases strongly with planet radius, characterized by a transition at a break radius of R_br = 9.2-1.1+1.9 R_e. This trend places warm sub-Saturns predominantly on the same low-eccentricity track as sub-Neptunes. In contrast, warm Jovians (8--16 R_e) are frequently eccentric, with 65-12+13% of the population in the high eccentricity mode. Under the assumption of a two-component model, we see tentative evidence for a bimodal Jovian distribution at ~2.7 sigma. Finally, we identify a non-negligible tail of highly eccentric sub-Neptunes (1--4 R_e), which comprise 16.2-6.4+5.2% of the population, consistent with excitation by non-transiting external companions.

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arXiv2026

How Many Transiting Giant Planets Can JWST Search for Moons and Rotational Oblateness?

Observations with the {\it James Webb Space Telescope} (JWST) can, in principle, detect moons and rotational oblateness of giant exoplanets through subtle distortions of transit light curves. The most favorable planets are expected to be on wide orbits ($\gtrsim$0.3~AU) where moons and rapid rotation are more likely to survive tidal evolution. No unambiguous detections have yet been reported. Here, we forecast the number of systems with sufficiently favorable properties to allow for secure detections, using JWST noise models, analytic detectability scalings, giant-planet occurrence rates, and the Gaia star catalog. For planets orbiting 0.9--1.6$\,M_\odot$ stars and a noise model based on demonstrated JWST performance, single-transit observations should be capable of detecting Jupiter-like rotational oblateness in several known systems and of order 10 systems yet to be discovered, if obliquities are typically $\gtrsim$10$^\circ$. A similar number of systems are favorable for Ganymede-sized moons, if such moons are common. The yields can increase to tens or hundreds of systems if lower-mass host stars are included or if JWST can achieve photon-limited performance. Time-correlated noise on 1--10 hr timescales can strongly suppress these yields; a noise floor of a few tens of parts per million is enough to hide oblateness or moons in many otherwise favorable systems. Successful searches will therefore require both a more complete census of long-period transiting giant planets and low levels of instrumental systematics and stellar variability.

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arXiv2026

Discovery of an Inflated Hot Neptune and Its Formation from Jovian Mass Loss

The production of Neptune-like planets with orbital periods of 3--6 days is challenging for conventional models of high-eccentricity migration. We present the discovery and characterization of TOI-2195~A~b, an inflated hot Neptune ($P = 4.16$ days, $m_p= 1.46M_{\rm Nep},\,R_p = 0.79R_{\rm J}$) orbiting an early K-type star with a wide binary companion at $\sim 600$~au. Detection of the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect at $\sim2.6σ$ confidence with Magellan/PFS reveals the planet is likely on a near-polar orbit with a sky-projected stellar obliquity $λ= {109^{+35}_{-53}} ^{\circ}$. We perform coupled dynamical and structural modeling that reproduces the observed characteristics of the system. We show that the planet may have originated as a cold, Jovian planet that was excited to high eccentricities via the stellar Eccentric Kozai-Lidov (EKL) mechanism, where it lost up to $\sim90\%$ of its mass via Roche lobe overflow during close periastron passages, enabling rapid tidal migration and radius inflation due to tidal heating. TOI-2195 A b provides a test for planetary migration theories, and our simulations suggest that puffy hot Neptunes originated as more massive Jovians that underwent mass loss during high-eccentricity migration.

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arXiv2026

ASTEP confirmation of a pair of long-period Jupiter-sized planets with extremely low densities transiting TOI-791

Gas giant planets with periods $20~<~P~<~300~\rm days$ orbiting Sun-like stars are a relatively uncommon outcome of planetary formation, and key questions about the nature and formation of this sub-population remain unanswered. Theoretical models for the location of their formation (in- or ex-situ) and for their subsequent migration predict different outcomes in terms of planet masses and eccentricities, indicating that observations have a key role to play in disentangling their histories. In this work we present the discovery and confirmation of a pair of long-period Jupiter-sized planets transiting an F7 star: TOI-791 b is a $0.993\pm0.033\rm~R_{Jup}$ planet on a $139.29931_{-0.00012}^{+0.00011}~\rm day$ orbit, and TOI-791 c, a $1.155\pm0.040\rm ~R_{Jup}$ planet on a $232.01570_{-0.00071}^{+0.00067}~\rm day$ orbit. The two planets are within 0.07% of a second-order 5:3 period commensurability leading to transit timing variations (TTVs) of up to 50 minutes. We confirm their planetary nature using ground-based photometry, including multiple full detections of the $>11~\rm hr$ transits of both TOI-791 b and c from Antarctica with ASTEP, making these the longest-duration transits ever observed in their entirety from the ground. Our detailed analysis of the TTV signal allows us to measure dynamical masses for both planets, which yield densities of $ρ_{\rm b}=0.038\pm0.008 \rm ~g~cm^{-3}$ and $ρ_{\rm c}=0.047\pm0.006 \rm ~g~cm^{-3}$, indicating that TOI-791~b and c are two of the lowest density giant planets ever detected. While these measurements are robust, further follow-up is needed to fully characterise the TTV signal and the architecture of the system.

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arXiv2026

AESTRA II: Generative Spectral Modeling of the Sun as a Star for Precise Radial Velocities

The detection of Earth analogs with extreme-precision radial velocities (EPRVs) is limited by spectral variability from stellar activity, telluric absorption, and instrumental systematics. We apply AESTRA, a generative spectrum modeling framework, to NEID Sun-as-a-star observations. AESTRA empirically decomposes the spectra into stellar line-shape variability, micro-telluric absorption, and continuum variability without external atmospheric or stellar templates. After removing the learned telluric and continuum components, we train a low-dimensional representation of the spectrum to infer activity-driven apparent RVs jointly with candidate Doppler signals. We evaluate the method with 500 single-planet injection-recovery tests spanning periods of 2.5 to 400 days and semi-amplitudes of K = 0.1 to 0.7 m s^-1, calibrating the detection criterion to yield zero spurious detections. At this matched confidence level, AESTRA recovers 238 injected planets, including 13 with K < 0.3 m s^-1, whereas traditional CCF-based activity-indicator detrending recovers 9 planets and none below K = 0.5 m s^-1.

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arXiv2026

POSEIDON II: The Anti-Aligned Orbit of the Warm Neptune TOI-1710 A b

We present an observation of the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect for the TOI-1710 system with the NEID spectrograph on the WIYN 3.5 m telescope. The system hosts a warm Neptune ($P\sim24$ days), and our observations reveal that it orbits in the opposite direction to the stellar spin, with a sky-projected obliquity $λ=179\pm19^{\circ}$. Combined with information about the rotation period of the host star, we measure a true obliquity $ψ=158_{-13}^{+11}\,^{\circ}$. The host star has an M-dwarf companion at a separation of $\sim3600$ au, but this companion is too distant to be solely responsible for misaligning the warm Neptune. The host star also shows a long-term radial velocity trend, indicative of a companion at intermediate separations. We show that such a companion can dynamically couple the warm Neptune to the distant M dwarf, enabling the transfer of inclination from the wide binary orbit to the planetary orbit. Assuming this scenario is correct, we predict the intermediate companion is a $\sim5\,M_J$ planet on a $\sim15$ au orbit that is nearly aligned with the transiting planet's orbit.

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arXiv2026

A Massive Hot-Jupiter Companion that Disfavors Giant Planet Formation Beyond the Water-Ice Line

We report evidence for a brown-dwarf companion with mass $34^{+30}_{-11}~M_{\rm J}$ in the KELT-20 system, in which an ultra-hot Jupiter transits an A2-type star. The companion's properties are inferred from a joint analysis of astrometric accelerations and transit timing variations, and its present-day orbit imposes dynamical limits on where the hot Jupiter could have formed. Given the star's current luminosity, the water-ice line is expected at $\sim$8-15 au, but the companion's inferred pericenter distance of a few au would lead to orbit crossing or long-term instability for any planet formed at such distances. If the companion formed early and remained near its current orbit over the system's lifetime, the proto-hot Jupiter must have formed within $\sim$3.7 au to avoid orbit crossing, and within $\sim$1.5 au to remain dynamically stable over the system's lifetime. These results disfavor formation beyond the ice line and point instead to formation at smaller orbital distances followed by inward migration.

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arXiv2026

High five from ASTEP: Three validated planets and two eclipsing binaries in a diverse set of long-period candidates

We present the analysis of five long-period TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs), all orbiting Sun-like stars, with orbital periods exceeding one month. Initially identified by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), we extensively monitored these targets with the Antarctic Search for Transiting Exoplanets (ASTEP), supported by other facilities in the TESS Follow-up Observing Program (TFOP) network. These targets occupy a relatively underexplored region of the period-radius parameter space, offering valuable primordial probes for planetary formation and migration as warm planets better maintain their evolutionary fingerprints. To characterise these systems, we leveraged high-resolution speckle imaging to search for nearby stellar companions, and refine stellar parameters using both reconnaissance spectroscopy and spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting. We combined TESS photometry with high-precision ground-based observations from ASTEP, and when available, included additional photometry and radial velocity data. We applied statistical validation to assess the planetary nature of each candidate and used Allesfitter to jointly model the photometric and spectroscopic datasets. We validate the planetary nature of three TOIs, including the two warm Saturns TOI-4507b (8.2 Earth radii, 104d) and TOI-3457b (10.0 Earth radii, 32.6d), as well as the warm sub-Neptune TOI-707b (2.4 Earth radii, 52.8d). The remaining two candidates are most consistent with eclipsing binaries, namely TOI-2404 and TOI-4404. These results help populate the sparse regime of warm planets, which serve as key tracers of planetary evolution, and demonstrate ASTEP's effectiveness as a ground-based follow-up instrument for long-period systems.

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arXiv2026

POSEIDON I: The Dynamical Origins of Transiting Neptunes

We present the first results from the POSEIDON survey, aimed at constraining the dynamical origins of transiting Neptunes through stellar obliquity measurements. We report Rossiter-McLaughlin observations of two Neptunes, TOI-181 b and TOI-883 b, obtained with high-resolution spectroscopy from Magellan/PFS and WIYN/NEID. TOI-181 b is on a 4.5-day orbit with a sky-projected spin-orbit misalignment $λ= 32.0_{-6.5}^{+6.3}\,^{\circ}$ and a low eccentricity ($e<0.12$ with $2σ$ confidence). TOI-883 b has a longer orbital period of 10 days with $λ= 22_{-14}^{+15}\,^{\circ}$ and eccentricity $e = 0.16 \pm 0.03$. The significant misalignment of TOI-181 b and the significant eccentricity of TOI-883 b are suggestive of high-eccentricity migration for both systems. After adding these and other new measurements to the sample, we analyze the obliquity distribution of the host stars of transiting Neptunes. Earlier studies had suggested that the obliquity distribution is bimodal, with peaks corresponding to aligned orbits and polar orbits; the addition of more measurements has weakened the evidence for bimodality. The current sample appears to be consistent with a population of well-aligned systems and a smaller population with nearly random obliquities. This distribution resembles that observed for more massive planets, suggesting that transiting Jupiters and Neptunes originate from similar dynamical processes.

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arXiv2026

TTV-Not-So-Fast: Uniqueness and Degeneracy in Perturbing Planet Parameters

Nontransiting planets can reveal themselves through transit timing variations (TTVs), but inferring the properties of the perturbing planet is a highly degenerate inverse problem. We present a systematic reassessment of all 12 published cases in which a nontransiting planet was claimed to have been uniquely characterized using TTVs. Two systems (KOI-142 and Kepler-419) stand out clearly with compelling evidence for unique solutions. Two other systems (KOI-872 and KOI-884) exhibit complex degeneracies, but the data are just precise enough to single out a best solution. Six systems (Kepler-82, Kepler-411, Kepler-725, KOI-134, Kepler-138, and TOI-4562) admit multiple viable solutions involving very different perturbing planets. In the remaining two systems (WASP-18 and WASP-126), the evidence for any perturbing planet is weak. We find that a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for a unique solution is the detection of short-timescale TTV structure associated with conjunctions, either in the near-resonant "chopping" regime or in eccentric systems with phase-dependent close approaches. In some systems, aliasing of the synodic period leads to ambiguities in associating observed TTV timescales with physical timescales, threatening uniqueness. Our results highlight the difficulty of achieving unique solutions in TTV inversions and underscore the need for long time baselines, accurate timing uncertainties, and complementary constraints from radial velocities or other observations when characterizing nontransiting planets.

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arXiv2026

A Warm Massive Pair of Planets around TOI-1232 Revealed with Transit-timing Variations and Doppler Spectroscopy

TOI-1232 is a G-dwarf star with a mass of $1.06_{-0.06}^{+0.07} M_\odot$, a radius of $1.07\pm 0.05 R_\odot$, and slightly higher metallicity than solar of Fe/H = $0.18 \pm 0.05$. The star hosts a transiting warm Jovian-mass planet, TOI-1232 b, with an orbital period of $P_{b} = 14.256_{-0.001}^{+0.001}$ days, identified with data from multiple sectors of the $\textit{TESS}$ space telescope. The $\textit{TESS}$ light curve of TOI-1232 is complex, as it is contaminated by a background eclipsing binary with a period of $1.37$ days. The TOI-1232 b was firmly confirmed by ground-based transit follow-up campaigns from Las Cumbres, Hazelwood, Brierfield, and ASTEP observatories.Additionally, the $\textit{TESS}$ transits of TOI-1232 b exhibit strong transit timing variations (TTVs) with a super-period of $235.5 \pm 0.7$ days and a semi-amplitude of 27 minutes. Radial velocity (RV) follow-up with the FEROS spectrograph confirms the planetary nature of the transiting candidate, while a self-consistent $N$-body analysis of RVs and TTVs pinpoints the presence of a second outer Saturn-mass companion, TOI-1232 c with a period of $P_{c} = 30.356_{-0.012}^{+0.010}$ days. The TOI-1232 warm-giant system is particularly important due to the evidence of two massive planets that reside near the 2:1 commensurability but are not locked in a mean motion resonance (MMR). Thanks to $\textit{TESS}$, we have revealed a handful of these rare systems. Hence, TOI-1232 is an important addition to understanding the formation and dynamical evolution of such compact, massive, warm giant planets.

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