arXiv subjects

Joshua N. Winn

Publications and source records attributed to Joshua N. Winn.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

An Adolescent and Near-Resonant Planetary System Near the End of Photoevaporation

Young exoplanets provide vital insights into the early dynamical and atmospheric evolution of planetary systems. Many multi-planet systems younger than 100 Myr exhibit mean-motion resonances, likely established through convergent disk migration. Over time, however, these resonant chains are often disrupted, mirroring the Nice model proposed for the Solar System. We present a detailed characterization of the ~200-Myr-old TOI-2076 system, which contains four sub-Neptune planets between 1.4 and 3.5 Earth radii. We demonstrate that its planets are near but not locked in mean-motion resonances, making the system dynamically fragile. The four planets have comparable core masses but display a monotonic increase in hydrogen and helium (H/He) envelope mass fractions (stripped-1%-5%-5%) with decreasing stellar insolation. This trend is consistent with atmospheric mass-loss due to photoevaporation, which predicts that the envelopes of irradiated planets either erode completely or stabilize at a residual level of ~1% by mass within the first few hundred million years, with more distant, less-irradiated planets retaining most of primordial envelopes. Additionally, previous detections of metastable helium outflows rule out a pure water-world scenario for TOI-2076 planets. Our finding provides direct observational evidence that the dynamical and atmospheric reshaping of compact planetary systems begin early, offering an empirical anchor for models of their long-term evolution.

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arXiv2026

Two warm sub-Saturn mass planets identified from the TESS Full Frame Images

Context. Characterization of warm giants is crucial to constrain giant planet formation and evolution. Measuring the mass and radius of these planets, combined with their moderated irradiation, allows us to estimate their planetary bulk composition, which is a key quantity to comprehend giant planet formation and structure. Aims. We present the discovery of two transiting warm giant planets orbiting solar-type stars from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), which were characterized by further spectroscopic and photometric ground-based observations. Methods. We performed a joint analysis of photometric data with radial velocities to confirm and characterize TOI-883 b and TOI-899 b, two sub-Saturns orbiting solar-like stars. Results. TOI-883 b and TOI-899 b have masses of $0.123 \pm 0.012$ $M_J$ and $0.213 \pm 0.024$ $M_J$, radius of $0.604 \pm 0.028$ $R_J$ and $0.991 \pm 0.044$ $R_J$, periods of $10.06$ d and $12.85$ d and equilibrium temperature of $1086 \pm 19$ K and $1040 \pm 19$ K, respectively. Conclusions. While having similar masses, orbital periods and stellar host properties, these planets seem to have different internal compositions, which could point to distinct formation histories. Both planets are suitable targets for atmospheric studies to further constrain formation scenarios of planets in the Neptune-Saturn mass range

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arXiv2026

TOI-4495: A Pair of Aligned, Near-Resonant Sub-Neptunes that Likely Experienced Overstable Migration

We report the discovery of a sub-Neptune and a Neptune-like planet ($R_b = 2.48^{+0.14}_{-0.10}\,R_\oplus$, $R_c = 4.03^{+0.23}_{-0.15}\,R_\oplus$) orbiting the F-type star TOI-4495. The planets have orbital periods of 2.567 days and 5.185 days, lying close to a 2:1 mean-motion resonance (MMR). Our photodynamical analysis of the TESS light curves constrains the planetary masses to $M_b = 7.7 \pm 1.4\,M_\oplus$ and $M_c = 23.2 \pm 4.7\,M_\oplus$. The measured masses and radii indicate the presence of volatile-rich gaseous envelopes on both planets. The Rossiter-McLaughlin effect and the Doppler shadow of TOI-4495 c reveal a well-aligned orbit with a projected stellar obliquity of $λ= -2.3^{+8.3}_{-7.8}\,\mathrm{deg}$. Combined with the low mutual inclination constrained by the photodynamical analysis ($ΔI < 8.7\,\mathrm{deg}$), the planetary orbits are likely coplanar and aligned with the host star's spin axis. We show that the planets are near, but not in, the 2:1 MMR, with a circulating resonant angle. We also find substantial free eccentricity for the inner planet, TOI-4495 b ($e_b = 0.078^{+0.020}_{-0.013}$). Given the observed proximity to the 2:1 resonance and the more massive outer planet, TOI-4495 b and c are particularly susceptible to resonant overstability, which can convert resonantly excited eccentricity into free eccentricity. However, additional mechanisms (e.g., planetesimal scattering) may be required to further excite the eccentricity by $\sim 4\%$. To prevent tidal damping from reducing the eccentricity below the observed level over the star's lifetime (1.9 Gyr), the reduced tidal quality factor of TOI-4495 b must be $Q' \gtrsim 10^5$, consistent with the presence of a thick envelope on the planet.

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arXiv2025

A Cold and Super-Puffy Planet on a Prograde Orbit

We report the discovery of TOI-4507 b, a transiting sub-Saturn with a density $<$ 0.2 g/cm$^3$ on a 105-day prograde orbit around a 700 Myr old F star. The transits were detected using data from TESS as well as the Antarctic telescope ASTEP. A joint analysis of the light curves and radial velocities from HARPS, FEROS, and CORALIE confirmed the planetary nature of the signal by limiting the mass to be below 20 $M_\oplus$ at 95% confidence. The radial velocities also exhibit the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect and imply that the planet orbits the star in a prograde orbit with a sky-projected obliquity $λ=-15_{-44}^{+50}$ deg ($|λ|<80$ deg at $3σ$). With these characteristics, TOI-4507 is one of the longest-period systems for which the stellar obliquity has been measured, and the planet is among the longest-period and youngest ''super-puff'' planets yet discovered.

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arXiv2025

On the Exoplanet Yield of Gaia Astrometry

We re-examine the expected yield of Gaia astrometric planet detections using updated models for giant-planet occurrence, the local stellar population, and Gaia's demonstrated astrometric precision. Our analysis combines a semi-analytic model that clarifies key scaling relations with more realistic Monte Carlo simulations. We predict $7{,}500 \pm 2{,}100$ planet discoveries in the 5-year dataset (DR4) and $120{,}000 \pm 22{,}000$ over the full 10-year mission (DR5), with the dominant error arising from uncertainties in giant-planet occurrence. We evaluate the sensitivity of these forecasts to the detection threshold and the desired precision for measurements of planet masses and orbital parameters. Roughly $1{,}900 \pm 540$ planets in DR4 and $38{,}000 \pm 7{,}300$ planets in DR5 should have masses and orbital periods determined to better than $20$%. Most detections will be super-Jupiters ($3$ - $13 M_{\rm J}$) on $2$ - $5$AU orbits around GKM-type stars ($0.4$ - $1.3 M_\odot$) within $500$ pc. Unresolved binary stars will lead to spurious planet detections, but we estimate that genuine planets will outnumber them by a factor of $5$ or more. An exception is planets around M-dwarfs with $a < 1$AU, for which the false-positive rate is expected to be about $50$%. To support community preparation for upcoming data releases, we provide mock catalogs of Gaia exoplanets and planet-impostor binaries.

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arXiv2025

Exploring Exoplanet Dynamics with JWST: Tides, Rotation, Rings, and Moons

Although nearly 6,000 exoplanets are currently known, in most cases our knowledge is limited to a handful of the planet's orbital characteristics and bulk properties such as radius and mass. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) can expand our knowledge not only by probing exoplanet atmospheres, but also by measuring additional orbital and physical properties of exoplanets, thanks to its superior light-gathering power and measurement precision. Here, we describe the potential of JWST to unveil dynamical phenomena that were previously beyond our reach, such as tidal distortion and inflation, rotational flattening, planetary rings, and moons.

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arXiv2025

Orbital decay candidates reconsidered: WASP-4 b is not decaying and Kepler-1658 b is not a planet

The fate of hot Jupiters is thought to be engulfment by their host stars, the outcome of tidal orbital decay. Transit timing has revealed a few systems with apparently shrinking orbital periods, but such signals can be mimicked by light travel-time effects (LTTE) of a distant companion. By combining transit timings with precise radial-velocity data, including new data, we reassessed three reported cases of orbital decay: WASP-4, WASP-12, and Kepler-1658. For WASP-4, the period change is best explained by LTTE due to an ~7 Jupiter-mass companion at ~8 AU, with no need to invoke orbital decay. For WASP-12, in contrast, the data firmly exclude LTTE and confirm genuine orbital decay. For Kepler-1658, spectroscopic and photometric anomalies reveal the "planet" to be an eclipsing K/M binary bound to the F-type primary, with LTTE explaining the observed period change. Thus, among the known hot Jupiters, only WASP-12 b currently shows compelling evidence for orbital decay.

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arXiv2025

TOI-880 is an Aligned, Coplanar, Multi-planet System

Although many cases of stellar spin-orbit misalignment are known, it is usually unclear whether a single planet's orbit was tilted or if the entire protoplanetary disk was misaligned. Measuring stellar obliquities in multi-transiting planetary systems helps to distinguish these possibilities. Here, we present a measurement of the sky-projected spin-orbit angle for TOI-880 c (TOI-880.01), a member of a system of three transiting planets, using the Keck Planet Finder (KPF). We found that the host star is a K-type star ($T_{\rm eff}=5050 \pm 100$ K). Planet b (TOI-880.02) has a radius of $2.19\pm0.11\mathrm{R_{\oplus}}$ and an orbital period of $2.6$ days; planet c (TOI-880.01) is a Neptune-sized planet with $4.95\pm0.20\mathrm{R_{\oplus}}$ on a $6.4$-day orbit; and planet d (TOI-880.03) has a radius of $3.40_{-0.21}^{+0.22}\mathrm{R_{\oplus}}$ and a period of $14.3$ days. By modeling the Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) effect, we found the sky-projected obliquity to be $|λ_c| = 7.4_{-7.2}^{+6.8}$$^{\circ}$, consistent with a prograde, well-aligned orbit. The lack of detectable rotational modulation of the flux of the host star and a low $\rm v\sin{i_\star}$ (1.6~km/s) imply slow rotation and correspondingly slow nodal precession of the planetary orbits and the expectation that the system will remain in this coplanar configuration. TOI-880 joins a growing sample of well-aligned, coplanar, multi-transiting systems. Additionally, TOI-880 c is a promising target for JWST follow-up, with a transmission spectroscopy metric (TSM) of $\sim 170$. We could not detect clear signs of atmospheric erosion in the H$α$ line from TOI-880 c, as photoevaporation might have diminished for this mature planet.

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arXiv2025

The Gap-Giant Association: Are Planets Hiding in the Gaps?

A handful of stars are known to host both an inner system of multiple transiting planets and an outer giant planet. These systems all feature a prominent gap between the orbits of two of the transiting planets, distinguishing them from typical multiplanet systems with more uniform orbital spacings. The reason for the association between inner gaps and outer giants is unknown. In this paper, we assess whether undiscovered planets might occupy these gaps in systems with outer giants. For each of the four relevant systems - Kepler-48, Kepler-65, Kepler-90, and Kepler-139 - we found that a typical small planet ($\sim 1 - 20 M_\oplus$) could reside in the gap without inducing dynamical instability. However, in each case, the gravitational influence of the outer giant planet is insufficient to tilt the orbit of the hypothetical planet by enough to prevent transits, strongly disfavoring a proposed theory for the observed gap-giant association. The gaps might instead contain smaller, undetected planets ($\lesssim 1 R_\oplus$), or be entirely devoid of planets.

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arXiv2025

A New Brown Dwarf Orbiting an M star and An Investigation on the Eccentricity Distribution of Transiting Long-Period Brown Dwarfs

The orbital eccentricities of brown dwarfs encode valuable information of their formation and evolution history, providing insights into whether they resemble giant planets or stellar binaries. Here, we report the discovery of TOI-5575b, a long-period, massive brown dwarf orbiting a low-mass M5V star ($\rm 0.21\pm0.02\,M_\odot$) delivered by the TESS mission. The companion has a mass and radius of $\rm 72.4\pm4.1\,M_J$ and $\rm 0.84\pm0.07\,R_J$ on a 32-day moderately eccentric orbit ($e=0.187\pm0.002$), making it the third highest-mass-ratio transiting brown dwarf system known to date. Building on this discovery, we investigate the eccentricity distributions of a sample of transiting long-period ($10\leq P\lesssim 1000$ days, $\sim$0.1-1.5 AU) giant planets, brown dwarfs and low-mass stars. We find that brown dwarfs exhibit an eccentricity behavior nearly identical to that of giant planets: a preference for circular orbits with a long tail toward high eccentricities. Such a trend contrasts sharply with direct imaging findings, where cold (5-100 AU) brown dwarfs and giant planets display distinct eccentricity distributions. Our results suggest that transiting long-period brown dwarfs and giant planets probably 1) form in different routes at exterior orbits but undergo analogous dynamical evolution processes and migrate inwards; or 2) both contain two sub-groups, one with widely spread eccentricities while the other has circular orbits, that jointly sculpt the eccentricity distributions. The low-mass-star systems appear to be a distinctive population, showing a peak eccentricity at about 0.3, akin to more massive stellar binaries.

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arXiv2025

TOI-1259Ab: A Warm Jupiter Orbiting a K-dwarf White-Dwarf Binary is on a Well-aligned Orbit

The evolution of one member of a stellar binary into a white dwarf has been proposed as a mechanism that triggers the formation of close-in gas giant planets. The star's asymmetric mass loss during the AGB stage gives it a "kick" that can initiate Eccentric Lidov-Kozai oscillations, potentially causing a planet around the secondary star to migrate inwards and perturbing the eccentricity and inclination of its orbit. Here we present a measurement of the stellar obliquity of TOI-1259Ab, a gas giant in a close-in orbit around a K star with a white dwarf companion about 1650 au away. By using the NEID spectrograph to detect the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect during the planetary transit, we find the sky-projected obliquity to be $λ= 6^{+21}_{-22}\,^\circ$. When combined with estimates of the stellar rotation period, radius, and projected rotation velocity, we find the true 3D obliquity to be $ψ= 24^{+14}_{-12}\,^\circ$ ($ψ< 48^\circ$ at 95% confidence), revealing that the orbit of TOI-1259Ab is well aligned with the star's equatorial plane. Because the planet's orbit is too wide for tidal realignment to be expected, TOI-1259Ab might have formed quiescently in this well-aligned configuration. Alternatively, as we show with dynamical simulations, Eccentric Lidov-Kozai oscillations triggered by the evolution of the binary companion are expected to lead to a low obliquity with a probability of about $\sim$14%.

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arXiv2025

The TESS Grand Unified Hot Jupiter Survey. III. Thirty More Giant Planets

We present the discovery of 30 transiting giant planets that were initially detected using data from NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission. These new planets orbit relatively bright ($G \leq 12.5$) FGK host stars with orbital periods between 1.6 and 8.2 days, and have radii between 0.9 and 1.7 Jupiter radii. We performed follow-up ground-based photometry, high angular-resolution imaging, high-resolution spectroscopy and radial velocity monitoring for each of these objects to confirm that they are planets and determine their masses and other system parameters. The planets' masses span more than an order of magnitude ($0.17\,M_J < M_p < 3.3\,M_J$). For two planets, TOI-3593 b and TOI-4961 b, we measured significant non-zero eccentricities of $0.11^{+0.05}_{-0.03}$ and $0.18^{+0.04}_{-0.05}$ respectively, while for the other planets, the data typically provide a 1-$σ$ upper bound of 0.15 on the eccentricity. These discoveries represent a major step toward assembling a complete, magnitude-limited sample of transiting hot Jupiters around FGK stars.

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arXiv2025

Giant Outer Transiting Exoplanet Mass (GOT 'EM) Survey. VI: Confirmation of a Long-Period Giant Planet Discovered with a Single TESS Transit

We report the discovery and confirmation of TOI-4465 b, a $1.25^{+0.08}_{-0.07}~R_{J}$, $5.89\pm0.26~M_{J}$ giant planet orbiting a G dwarf star at $d\simeq$ 122 pc. The planet was detected as a single-transit event in data from Sector 40 of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission. Radial velocity (RV) observations of TOI-4465 showed a planetary signal with an orbital period of $\sim$102 days, and an orbital eccentricity of $e=0.24\pm0.01$. TESS re-observed TOI-4465 in Sector 53 and Sector 80, but did not detect another transit of TOI-4465 b, as the planet was not expected to transit during these observations based on the RV period. A global ground-based photometry campaign was initiated to observe another transit of TOI-4465 b after the RV period determination. The $\sim$12 hour-long transit event was captured from multiple sites around the world, and included observations from 24 citizen scientists, confirming the orbital period as $\sim$102 days. TOI-4465 b is a relatively dense ($3.73\pm0.53~\rm{g/cm^3}$), temperate (375-478 K) giant planet. Based on giant planet structure models, TOI-4465 b appears to be enriched in heavy elements at a level consistent with late-stage accretion of icy planetesimals. Additionally, we explore TOI-4465 b's potential for atmospheric characterization, and obliquity measurement. Increasing the number of long-period planets by confirming single-transit events is crucial for understanding the frequency and demographics of planet populations in the outer regions of planetary systems.

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arXiv2025

11 New Transiting Brown Dwarfs and Very Low Mass Stars from TESS

We present the discovery of 11 new transiting brown dwarfs and low-mass M-dwarfs from NASA's TESS mission: TOI-2844, TOI-3122, TOI-3577, TOI-3755, TOI-4462, TOI-4635, TOI-4737, TOI-4759, TOI-5240, TOI-5467, and TOI-5882. They consist of 5 brown dwarf companions and 6 very low mass stellar companions ranging in mass from $25 M_{\rm J}$ to $128 M_{\rm J}$. We used a combination of photometric time-series, spectroscopic, and high resolution imaging follow-up as a part of the TESS Follow-up Observing Program (TFOP) in order to characterize each system. With over 50 transiting brown dwarfs confirmed, we now have a large enough sample to directly test different formation and evolutionary scenarios. We provide a renewed perspective on the transiting brown dwarf desert and its role in differentiating between planetary and stellar formation mechanisms. Our analysis of the eccentricity distribution for the transiting brown dwarf sample does not support previous claims of a transition between planetary and stellar formation at $\sim42$ $M_{\rm J}$. We also contribute a first look into the metallicity distribution of transiting companions in the range $7 - 150$ $M_{\rm J}$, showing that this too does not support a $\sim42$ $M_{\rm J}$ transition. Finally, we also detect a significant lithium absorption feature in one of the brown dwarf hosts (TOI-5882) but determine that the host star is likely old based on rotation, kinematic, and photometric measurements. We therefore claim that TOI-5882 may be a candidate for planetary engulfment.

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arXiv2025

A 16 Myr super-Neptune in Upper-Centaurus Lupus and a preliminary survey of transiting planets in Sco-Cen with TESS

Measuring the properties of planets younger than about 50 Myr helps to test different planetary formation and evolution models. NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has observed nearly the entire sky, including a wide range of star-forming regions and young stellar clusters, expanding our census of the newborn planet population. In this work, we present the discovery of the TIC 88785435 planetary system located in the Upper-Centaurus Lupus (UCL) region of the Scorpius-Centaurus OB association (Sco-Cen) and a preliminary survey of the planet population within Sco-Cen. TIC 88785435 is a pre-main sequence, K7V dwarf ($M_\star = 0.72M_\odot$, $R_\star = 0.91R_\odot$, $T_\mathrm{eff}$ = 3998K, V = 11.7 mag) located within the bounds of UCL. We investigate the distribution of rotation periods measured from the TESS long-cadence data and the Halpha and Li abundances from the spectra of TIC 88785435. TESS long-candence data reveal that TIC 88785435 hosts a transiting super-Neptune ($R_b = 5.03R_\oplus$, P = 10.51 days), TIC 88785435 b. Ground-based follow-up validates the planetary nature of TIC 88785435 b. Using the TESS data, we perform a preliminary survey to investigate how TIC 88785435 b compares to the population of newly born planets located within Sco-Cen.

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arXiv2025

A transiting multi-planet system in the 61 million year old association Theia 116

Observing and characterizing young planetary systems can aid in unveiling the evolutionary mechanisms that sculpt the mature exoplanet population. As an all-sky survey, NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has expanded the known young planet population as it has observed young comoving stellar populations. This work presents the discovery of a multiplanet system orbiting the 61 Myr old G4V star TIC 434398831 (M = 0.99 Msun, R = 0.91 Rsun, Teff = 5638 K, Tmag = 11.31) located in the Theia 116 comoving population. We estimate the population's age based on rotation periods measured from the TESS light curves, isochrone fitting, and measurements of lithium equivalent widths in the spectra of Theia 116 members. The TESS FFI light curves reveal a mini-Neptune (Rb = 3.51 Rearth, Pb = 3.69 days) and super-Neptune (Rc = 5.63 Rearth, Pc = 6.21 days) with an orbital period ratio slightly larger than 5:3. Follow-up observations from CHEOPS and ground-based telescopes confirm the transits of TIC 434398831 b and c, and constrain their transit times. We explore the potential mass-loss histories of the two planets in order to probe possible initial conditions of the planets immediately after formation.

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arXiv2025

A transiting giant planet in orbit around a 0.2-solar-mass host star

Planet formation models suggest that the formation of giant planets is significantly harder around low-mass stars, due to the scaling of protoplanetary disc masses with stellar mass. The discovery of giant planets orbiting such low-mass stars thus imposes strong constraints on giant planet formation processes. Here, we report the discovery of a transiting giant planet orbiting a $0.207 \pm 0.011 M_{\odot}$ star. The planet, TOI-6894 b, has a mass and radius of $M_P = 0.168 \pm 0.022 M_J (53.4 \pm 7.1 M_{\oplus})$ and $R_P = 0.855 \pm 0.022 R_J$, and likely includes $12 \pm 2 M_{\oplus}$ of metals. The discovery of TOI-6894 b highlights the need for a better understanding of giant planet formation mechanisms and the protoplanetary disc environments in which they occur. The extremely deep transits (17% depth) make TOI-6894 b one of the most accessible exoplanetary giants for atmospheric characterisation observations, which will be key for fully interpreting the formation history of this remarkable system and for the study of atmospheric methane chemistry.

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arXiv2025

Stellar Obliquity of the Ultra-Short-Period Planet System HD 93963

We report an observation of the Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) effect of the transiting planet HD 93963 Ac, a mini-Neptune planet orbiting a G0-type star with an orbital period of $P_{\rm{c}} = 3.65\,\mathrm{d}$, accompanied by an inner super-Earth planet with $P_{\rm{b}} = 1.04\,\mathrm{d}$. We observed a full transit of planet c on 2024 May 3rd UT with Keck/KPF. The observed RM effect has an amplitude of $\sim 1\,\mathrm{m\,s}^{-1}$ and implies a sky-projected obliquity of $λ= 14^{+17}_{-19}$ degrees for HD 93963 Ac. Our dynamical analysis suggests that the two inner planets are likely well aligned with the stellar spin, to within a few degrees, thus allowing both to transit. Along with WASP-47, 55 Cnc, and HD 3167, HD 93963 is the fourth planetary system with an ultra-short-period planet and obliquity measurement(s) of any planet(s) in the system. HD 93963, WASP-47, and 55 Cnc favor largely coplanar orbital architectures, whereas HD 3167 has been reported to have a large mutual inclination ($\sim$100$^\circ$) between its transiting planets b and c. In this configuration, the probability that both planets transit is low. Moreover, one planet would quickly evolve to be non-transiting due to nodal precession. Future missions such as ESO/PLATO should detect the resulting transit duration variations. We encourage additional obliquity measurements of the HD 3167 system to better constrain its orbital architecture.

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