arXiv subjects

Joshua S. Speagle

Publications and source records attributed to Joshua S. Speagle.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Evidence from Disrupted Halo Dwarfs that $r$-process Enrichment via Neutron Star Mergers is Delayed by $\gtrsim500$ Myrs

The astrophysical origins of $r$-process elements remain elusive. Neutron star mergers (NSMs) and special classes of core-collapse supernovae (rCCSNe) are leading candidates. Due to these channels' distinct characteristic timescales (rCCSNe: prompt, NSMs: delayed), measuring $r$-process enrichment in galaxies of similar mass, but differing star-formation durations might prove informative. Two recently discovered disrupted dwarfs in the Milky Way's stellar halo, Kraken and \textit{Gaia}-Sausage Enceladus (GSE), afford precisely this opportunity: both have $M_{\star}\approx10^{8}M_{\rm{\odot}}$, but differing star-formation durations of ${\approx}2$ Gyrs and ${\approx}3.6$ Gyrs. Here we present $R\approx50,000$ Magellan/MIKE spectroscopy for 31 stars from these systems, detecting the $r$-process element Eu in all stars. Stars from both systems have similar [Mg/H]$\approx-1$, but Kraken has a median [Eu/Mg]$\approx-0.1$ while GSE has an elevated [Eu/Mg]$\approx0.2$. With simple models we argue NSM enrichment must be delayed by $500-1000$ Myrs to produce this difference. rCCSNe must also contribute, especially at early epochs, otherwise stars formed during the delay period would be Eu-free. In this picture, rCCSNe account for $\approx50\%$ of the Eu in Kraken, $\approx25\%$ in GSE, and $\approx15\%$ in dwarfs with extended star-formation durations like Sagittarius. The inferred delay time for NSM enrichment is $10-100\times$ longer than merger delay times from stellar population synthesis -- this is not necessarily surprising because the enrichment delay includes time taken for NSM ejecta to be incorporated into subsequent generations of stars. For example, this may be due to natal kicks that result in $r$-enriched material deposited far from star-forming gas, which then takes $\approx10^{8}-10^{9}$ years to cool in these galaxies.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2021

On the Three-Dimensional Structure of Local Molecular Clouds

We leverage the 1 pc spatial resolution of the Leike et al. 2020 3D dust map to characterize the three-dimensional structure of nearby molecular clouds ($d \lesssim 400$ pc). We start by "skeletonizing" the clouds in 3D volume density space to determine their "spines," which we project on the sky to constrain cloud distances with $\approx 1\%$ uncertainty. For each cloud, we determine an average radial volume density profile around its 3D spine and fit the profiles using Gaussian and Plummer functions. The radial volume density profiles are well-described by a two-component Gaussian function, consistent with clouds having broad, lower-density outer envelopes and narrow, higher-density inner layers. The ratio of the outer to inner envelope widths is $\approx 3:1$. We hypothesize that these two components may be tracing a transition between atomic and diffuse molecular gas or between the unstable and cold neutral medium. Plummer-like models can also provide a good fit, with molecular clouds exhibiting shallow power-law wings with density, $n$, falling off like $n^{-2}$ at large radii. Using Bayesian model selection, we find that parameterizing the clouds' profiles using a single Gaussian is disfavored. We compare our results with 2D dust extinction maps, finding that the 3D dust recovers the total cloud mass from integrated approaches with fidelity, deviating only at higher levels of extinction ($A_V \gtrsim 2 - 3$ mag). The 3D cloud structure described here will enable comparisons with synthetic clouds generated in simulations, offering unprecedented insight into the origins and fates of molecular clouds in the interstellar medium.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2021

The Outer Stellar Mass of Massive Galaxies: A Simple Tracer of Halo Mass with Scatter Comparable to Richness and Reduced Projection Effects

Using the weak gravitational lensing data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC survey), we study the potential of different stellar mass estimates in tracing halo mass. We consider galaxies with $\log {M_{\star}/M_{\odot}}>11.5$ at 0.2 < z < 0.5 with carefully measured light profiles and clusters from the redMaPPer and CAMIRA richness-based algorithms. We devise a method (the "TopN" test) to evaluate the scatter in the halo mass-observable relation for different tracers and inter-compare halo mass proxies in four number density bins using stacked galaxy-galaxy lensing profiles. This test reveals three key findings. The stellar mass based on cModel photometry or aperture luminosity within R<30 kpc is a poor proxy of halo mass. In contrast, the stellar mass of the outer envelope is an excellent halo mass proxy. The stellar mass within R=[50,100] kpc, M*[50,100], has performance comparable to the state-of-the-art richness-based cluster finders at $\log{M_{\rm vir}/M_{\odot}}>14.0$ and could be a better halo mass tracer at lower halo masses. Finally, using N-body simulations, we find that the lensing profiles of massive halos selected by M*[50,100] are consistent with the expectation for a sample without projection or mis-centering effects. On the other hand, Richness-selected clusters display an excess at R~1 Mpc in their lensing profiles, which may suggest a more significant impact from selection biases. These results suggest that Mstar-based tracers have distinct advantages in identifying massive halos, which could open up new avenues for cluster cosmology.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2021

Inferring the Morphology of Stellar Distribution in TNG50: Twisted and Twisted-Stretched shapes

We investigate the morphology of the stellar distribution in a sample of Milky Way (MW) like galaxies in the TNG50 simulation. Using a local in shell iterative method (LSIM) as the main approach, we explicitly show evidence of twisting (in about 52% of halos) and stretching (in 48% of them) in the real space. This is matched with the re-orientation observed in the eigenvectors of the inertia tensor and gives us a clear picture of having a re-oriented stellar distribution. We make a comparison between the shape profile of dark matter (DM) halo and stellar distribution and quite remarkably see that their radial profiles are fairly close, especially at small galactocentric radii where the stellar disk is located. This implies that the DM halo is somewhat aligned with stars in response to the baryonic potential. The level of alignment mostly decreases away from the center. We study the impact of substructures in the orbital circularity parameter. It is demonstrated that in some cases, far away substructures are counter-rotating compared with the central stars and may flip the sign of total angular momentum and thus the orbital circularity parameter. Truncating them above 150 kpc, however, retains the disky structure of the galaxy as per initial selection. Including the impact of substructures in the shape of stars, we explicitly show that their contribution is subdominant. Overlaying our theoretical results to the observational constraints from previous literature, we establish fair agreement.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2021

Reconstructing the Last Major Merger of the Milky Way with the H3 Survey

Several lines of evidence suggest the Milky Way underwent a major merger at z~2 with a galaxy known as Gaia-Sausage-Enceladus (GSE). Here we use H3 Survey data to argue that GSE entered the Galaxy on a retrograde orbit based on a population of highly retrograde stars with chemistry similar to the largely radial GSE debris. We present the first tailored, high-resolution N-body simulations of the merger. From a grid of ~500 simulations we find a GSE with $M_{*}=5\times10^{8}\ M_{\odot}, M_{\rm{DM}}=2\times10^{11} M_{\odot}$ (a 2.5:1 total mass merger) best matches the H3 data. This simulation shows the retrograde GSE stars are stripped from its outer disk early in the merger before the orbit loses significant angular momentum. Despite being selected purely on angular momenta and radial distributions, this simulation reproduces and explains the following empirical phenomena: (i) the elongated, triaxial shape of the inner halo (axis ratios $10:7.9:4.5$), whose major axis is at ~35° to the plane and connects GSE's apocenters, (ii) the Hercules-Aquila Cloud & the Virgo Overdensity, which arise due to apocenter pile-up, (iii) the 2 Gyr lag between the quenching of GSE and the truncation of the age distribution of the in-situ halo, which tracks the 2 Gyr gap between the first and final GSE pericenters. We make the following predictions: (i) the inner halo has a "double-break" density profile with breaks at both ~15-18 kpc and 30 kpc, coincident with the GSE apocenters, (ii) the outer halo has retrograde streams containing ~10% of GSE stars awaiting discovery at >30 kpc. The retrograde (radial) GSE debris originates from its outer (inner) disk -- exploiting this trend we reconstruct the stellar metallicity gradient of GSE ($-0.04\pm0.01$ dex $r_{\rm{50}}^{-1}$). These simulations imply GSE delivered ~20% of the Milky Way's present-day dark matter and ~50% of its stellar halo. (ABRIDGED)

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

Stellar Population Inference with Prospector

Inference of the physical properties of stellar populations from observed photometry and spectroscopy is a key goal in the study of galaxy evolution. In recent years the quality and quantity of the available data has increased, and there have been corresponding efforts to increase the realism of the stellar population models used to interpret these observations. Describing the observed galaxy spectral energy distributions in detail now requires physical models with a large number of highly correlated parameters. These models do not fit easily on grids and necessitate a full exploration of the available parameter space. We present prospector, a flexible code for inferring stellar population parameters from photometry and spectroscopy spanning UV through IR wavelengths. This code is based on forward modeling the data and Monte Carlo sampling the posterior parameter distribution, enabling complex models and exploration of moderate dimensional parameter spaces. We describe the key ingredients of the code and discuss the general philosophy driving the design of these ingredients. We demonstrate some capabilities of the code on several datasets, including mock and real data.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

Discovery of Magellanic Stellar Debris in the H3 Survey

We report the discovery of 15 stars in the H3 survey that lie, in projection, near the tip of the trailing gaseous Magellanic Stream (MS). The stars have Galactocentric velocities $< -155$ km s$^{-1}$, Galactocentric distances of $\approx 40$ to 80 kpc (increasing along the MS), and [Fe/H] consistent with that of stars in the Small Magellanic Cloud. These 15 stars comprise 94% (15 of 16) of the H3 observed stars to date that have $R_{GAL} > 37.5$ kpc, $-$350 km s$^{-1} < V_{GSR} < -155$ km s$^{-1}$, and are not associated with the Sagittarius Stream. They represent a unique portion of the Milky Way's outer halo phase space distribution function and confirm that unrelaxed structure is detectable even at radii where H3 includes only a few hundred stars. Due to their statistical excess, their close association with the MS and H I compact clouds in the same region, both in position and velocity space, and their plausible correspondence with tidal debris in a published simulation, we identify these stars as debris of past Magellanic Cloud encounters. These stars are evidence for a stellar component of the tidal debris field far from the Clouds themselves and provide unique constraints on the interaction.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

Constraining the Distance to the North Polar Spur with Gaia DR2

The North Polar Spur (NPS) is one of the largest structures observed in the Milky Way in both the radio and soft x-rays. While several predictions have been made regarding the origin of the NPS, modelling the structure is difficult without precise distance constraints. In this paper, we determine accurate distances to the southern terminus of the NPS and toward latitudes ranging up to 55$^{\circ}$. First, we fit for the distance and extinction to stars toward the NPS using optical and near-infrared photometry and Gaia DR2 astrometry. We model these per-star distance-extinction estimates as being caused by dust screens at unknown distances, which we fit for using a nested sampling algorithm. We then compare the extinction to the Spur derived from our 3D dust modelling with integrated independent measures from XMM-Newton X-ray absorption and HI column density measures. We find that we can account for nearly 100% of the total column density of the NPS as lying within 140 pc for latitudes $>26^{\circ}$ and within 700 pc for latitudes $< 11^{\circ}$. Based on the results, we conclude that the NPS is not associated with the Galactic Centre or the Fermi bubbles. Instead, it is likely associated, especially at higher latitudes, with the Sco-Cen association.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

A Diffuse Metal-Poor Component of the Sagittarius Stream Revealed by the H3 Survey

The tidal disruption of the Sagittarius dwarf galaxy has generated a spectacular stream of stars wrapping around the entire Galaxy. We use data from $Gaia$ and the H3 Stellar Spectroscopic Survey to identify 823 high-quality Sagittarius members based on their angular momenta. The H3 Survey is largely unbiased in metallicity, and so our sample of Sagittarius members is similarly unbiased. Stream stars span a wide range in [Fe/H] from $-0.2$ to $\approx -3.0$, with a mean overall metallicity of $\langle$[Fe/H]$\rangle=-0.99$. We identify a strong metallicity-dependence to the kinematics of the stream members. At [Fe/H]$\gt -0.8$ nearly all members belong to the well-known cold ($σ_v \lt 20$ km/s) leading and trailing arms. At intermediate metallicities ($-1.9 \lt$[Fe/H]$\lt -0.8$) a significant population (24$\%$) emerges of stars that are kinematically offset from the cold arms. These stars also appear to have hotter kinematics. At the lowest metallicities ([Fe/H]$\lesssim-2$), the majority of stars (69$\%$) belong to this kinematically-offset diffuse population. Comparison to simulations suggests that the diffuse component was stripped from the Sagittarius progenitor at earlier epochs, and therefore resided at larger radius on average, compared to the colder metal-rich component. We speculate that this kinematically diffuse, low metallicity, population is the stellar halo of the Sagittarius progenitor system.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

MINESweeper: Spectrophotometric Modeling of Stars in the Gaia Era

We present MINESweeper, a tool to measure stellar parameters by jointly fitting observed spectra and broadband photometry to model isochrones and spectral libraries. This approach enables the measurement of spectrophotometric distances, in addition to stellar parameters such as Teff, log(g), [Fe/H], [a/Fe], and radial velocity. MINESweeper employs a Bayesian framework and can easily incorporate a variety of priors, including Gaia parallaxes. Mock data are fit in order to demonstrate how the precision of derived parameters depends on evolutionary phase and SNR. We then fit a selection of data in order to validate the model outputs. Fits to a variety of benchmark stars including Procyon, Arcturus, and the Sun result in derived stellar parameters that are in good agreement with the literature. We then fit combined spectra and photometry of stars in the open and globular clusters M92, M13, M3, M107, M71, and M67. Derived distances, [Fe/H], [a/Fe], and log(g)-Teff, relations are in overall good agreement with literature values, although there are trends between metallicity and log(g), within clusters that point to systematic uncertainties at the ~0.1 dex level. Finally, we fit a large sample of stars from the H3 Spectroscopic Survey in which high quality Gaia parallaxes are also available. These stars are fit without the Gaia parallaxes so that the geometric parallaxes can serve as an independent test of the spectrophotometric distances. Comparison between the two reveals good agreement within their formal uncertainties after accounting for the Gaia zero point uncertainties.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

A New Census of the 0.2 < z < 3.0 Universe, Part I: The Stellar Mass Function

There has been a long-standing factor-of-two tension between the observed star formation rate density and the observed stellar mass buildup after $z\sim2$. Recently we have proposed that sophisticated panchromatic SED models can resolve this tension, as these methods infer systematically higher masses and lower star formation rates than standard approaches. In a series of papers we now extend this analysis and present a complete, self-consistent census of galaxy formation over $0.2 < z < 3$ inferred with the \texttt{Prospector} galaxy SED-fitting code. In this work, Paper I, we present the evolution of the galaxy stellar mass function using new mass measurements of $\sim$10$^5$ galaxies in the 3D-HST and COSMOS-2015 surveys. We employ a new methodology to infer the mass function from the observed stellar masses: instead of fitting independent mass functions in a series of fixed redshift intervals, we construct a continuity model that directly fits for the redshift evolution of the mass function. This approach ensures a smooth picture of galaxy assembly and makes use of the full, non-Gaussian uncertainty contours in our stellar mass inferences. The resulting mass function has higher number densities at a fixed stellar mass than almost any other measurement in the literature, largely owing to the older stellar ages inferred by \texttt{Prospector}. The stellar mass density is $\sim$50% higher than previous measurements, with the offset peaking at $z\sim1$. The next two papers in this series will present the new measurements of star-forming main sequence and the cosmic star formation rate density, respectively.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

A Conceptual Introduction to Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become a cornerstone of many modern scientific analyses by providing a straightforward approach to numerically estimate uncertainties in the parameters of a model using a sequence of random samples. This article provides a basic introduction to MCMC methods by establishing a strong conceptual understanding of what problems MCMC methods are trying to solve, why we want to use them, and how they work in theory and in practice. To develop these concepts, I outline the foundations of Bayesian inference, discuss how posterior distributions are used in practice, explore basic approaches to estimate posterior-based quantities, and derive their link to Monte Carlo sampling and MCMC. Using a simple toy problem, I then demonstrate how these concepts can be used to understand the benefits and drawbacks of various MCMC approaches. Exercises designed to highlight various concepts are also included throughout the article.

stat.OT↗

arXiv2020

Photometric Biases in Modern Surveys

Many surveys use maximum-likelihood (ML) methods to fit models when extracting photometry from images. We show these ML estimators systematically overestimate the flux as a function of the signal-to-noise ratio and the number of model parameters involved in the fit. This bias is substantially worse for resolved sources: while a 1% bias is expected for a 10$σ$ point source, a 10$σ$ resolved galaxy with a simplified Gaussian profile suffers a 2.5% bias. This bias also behaves differently depending how multiple bands are used in the fit: simultaneously fitting all bands leads the flux bias to become roughly evenly distributed between them, while fixing the position in "non-detection" bands (i.e. forced photometry) gives flux estimates in those bands that are biased low, compounding a bias in derived colors. We show that these effects are present in idealized simulations, outputs from the Hyper Suprime-Cam fake object pipeline (SynPipe), and observations from Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82. Prescriptions to correct for the ML bias in flux, and its uncertainty, are provided.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2020

A Galactic-scale gas wave in the Solar Neighborhood

For the past 150 years, the prevailing view of the local Interstellar Medium (ISM) was based on a peculiarity known as the Gould's Belt, an expanding ring of young stars, gas, and dust, tilted about 20$^\circ$ to the Galactic plane. Still, the physical relation between local gas clouds has remained practically unknown because the distance accuracy to clouds is of the same order or larger than their sizes. With the advent of large photometric surveys and the Gaia satellite astrometric survey this situation has changed. Here we report the 3-D structure of all local cloud complexes. We find a narrow and coherent 2.7 kpc arrangement of dense gas in the Solar neighborhood that contains many of the clouds thought to be associated with the Gould Belt. This finding is inconsistent with the notion that these clouds are part of a ring, disputing the Gould Belt model. The new structure comprises the majority of nearby star-forming regions, has an aspect ratio of about 1:20, and contains about 3 million solar masses of gas. Remarkably, the new structure appears to be undulating and its 3-D distribution is well described by a damped sinusoidal wave on the plane of the Milky Way, with an average period of about 2 kpc and a maximum amplitude of about 160 pc. Our results represent a first step in the revision of the local gas distribution and Galactic structure and offer a new, broader context to studies on the transformation of molecular gas into stars.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

High-resolution spectroscopy of the GD-1 stellar stream localizes the perturber near the orbital plane of Sagittarius

The $100^\circ$-long thin stellar stream in the Milky Way halo, GD-1, has an ensemble of features that may be due to dynamical interactions. Using high-resolution MMT/Hectochelle spectroscopy we show that a spur of GD-1-like stars outside of the main stream are kinematically and chemically consistent with the main stream. In the spur, as in the main stream, GD-1 has a low intrinsic radial velocity dispersion, $σ_{V_r}\lesssim1\,\rm km\,s^{-1}$, is metal-poor, $\rm [Fe/H]\approx-2.3$, with little $\rm [Fe/H]$ spread and some variation in $\rm [α/Fe]$ abundances, which point to a common globular cluster progenitor. At a fixed location along the stream, the median radial velocity offset between the spur and the main stream is smaller than $0.5\,\rm km\,s^{-1}$, comparable to the measurement uncertainty. A flyby of a massive, compact object can change orbits of stars in a stellar stream and produce features like the spur observed in GD-1. In this scenario, the radial velocity of the GD-1 spur relative to the stream constrains the orbit of the perturber and its current on-sky position to $\approx5,000\,\rm deg^2$. The family of acceptable perturber orbits overlaps the stellar and dark-matter debris of the Sagittarius dwarf galaxy in present-day position and velocity. This suggests that GD-1 may have been perturbed by a globular cluster or an extremely compact dark-matter subhalo formerly associated with Sagittarius.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

A Compendium of Distances to Molecular Clouds in the Star Formation Handbook

Accurate distances to local molecular clouds are critical for understanding the star and planet formation process, yet distance measurements are often obtained inhomogeneously on a cloud-by-cloud basis. We have recently developed a method which combines stellar photometric data with Gaia DR2 parallax measurements in a Bayesian framework to infer the distances of nearby dust clouds to a typical accuracy of $\sim5\%$. After refining the technique to target lower latitudes and incorporating deep optical data from DECam in the southern Galactic plane, we have derived a catalog of distances to molecular clouds in Reipurth (2008, Star Formation Handbook, vols I and II) which contains a large fraction of the molecular material in the solar neighborhood. Comparison with distances derived from maser parallax measurements towards the same clouds shows our method produces consistent distances with $\lesssim10\%$ scatter for clouds across our entire distance spectrum (150 pc $-$ 2.5 kpc). We hope this catalog of homogeneous distances will serve as a baseline for future work.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2019

Evidence for the Cross-correlation between Cosmic Microwave Background Polarization Lensing from POLARBEAR and Cosmic Shear from Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam

We present the first measurement of cross-correlation between the lensing potential, reconstructed from cosmic microwave background (CMB) {\it polarization} data, and the cosmic shear field from galaxy shapes. This measurement is made using data from the POLARBEAR CMB experiment and the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey. By analyzing an 11~deg$^2$ overlapping region, we reject the null hypothesis at 3.5$σ$\ and constrain the amplitude of the {\bf cross-spectrum} to $\widehat{A}_{\rm lens}=1.70\pm 0.48$, where $\widehat{A}_{\rm lens}$ is the amplitude normalized with respect to the Planck~2018{} prediction, based on the flat $Λ$ cold dark matter cosmology. The first measurement of this {\bf cross-spectrum} without relying on CMB temperature measurements is possible due to the deep POLARBEAR map with a noise level of ${\sim}$6\,$μ$K-arcmin, as well as the deep HSC data with a high galaxy number density of $n_g=23\,{\rm arcmin^{-2}}$. We present a detailed study of the systematics budget to show that residual systematics in our results are negligibly small, which demonstrates the future potential of this cross-correlation technique.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2019

Galaxy-Galaxy Lensing in HSC: Validation Tests and the Impact of Heterogeneous Spectroscopic Training Sets

Although photometric redshifts (photo-z's) are crucial ingredients for current and upcoming large-scale surveys, the high-quality spectroscopic redshifts currently available to train, validate, and test them are substantially non-representative in both magnitude and color. We investigate the nature and structure of this bias by tracking how objects from a heterogeneous training sample contribute to photo-z predictions as a function of magnitude and color, and illustrate that the underlying redshift distribution at fixed color can evolve strongly as a function of magnitude. We then test the robustness of the galaxy-galaxy lensing signal in 120 deg$^2$ of HSC-SSP DR1 data to spectroscopic completeness and photo-z biases, and find that their impacts are sub-dominant to current statistical uncertainties. Our methodology provides a framework to investigate how spectroscopic incompleteness can impact photo-z-based weak lensing predictions in future surveys such as LSST and WFIRST.

astro-ph.CO↗