arXiv subjects

Joshua S. Speagle

Publications and source records attributed to Joshua S. Speagle.

105 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

An Older, More Quiescent Universe from Panchromatic SED Fitting of the 3D-HST Survey

Galaxy observations are influenced by many physical parameters: stellar masses, star formation rates (SFRs), star formation histories (SFHs), metallicities, dust, black hole activity, and more. As a result, inferring accurate physical parameters requires high-dimensional models which capture or marginalize over this complexity. Here we re-assess inferences of galaxy stellar masses and SFRs using the 14-parameter physical model Prospector-$α$ built in the Prospector Bayesian inference framework. We fit the photometry of 58,461 galaxies from the 3D-HST catalogs at $0.5 < z < 2.5$. The resulting stellar masses are $\sim0.1-0.3$ dex larger than the fiducial masses while remaining consistent with dynamical constraints. This change is primarily due to the systematically older SFHs inferred with Prospector. The SFRs are $\sim0.1-1+$ dex lower than UV+IR SFRs, with the largest offsets caused by emission from "old" ($t>100$ Myr) stars. These new inferences lower the observed cosmic star formation rate density by $\sim0.2$ dex and increase the observed stellar mass growth by $\sim 0.1$ dex, finally bringing these two quantities into agreement and implying an older, more quiescent Universe than found by previous studies at these redshifts. We corroborate these results by showing that the Prospector-$α$ SFHs are both more physically realistic and are much better predictors of the evolution of the stellar mass function. Finally, we highlight examples of observational data which can break degeneracies in the current model; these observations can be incorporated into priors in future models to produce new & more accurate physical parameters.

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arXiv2019

Measuring the delay time distribution of binary neutron stars. III. Using the individual star formation histories of gravitational wave event host galaxies in the local universe

In Paper I (Safarzadeh & Berger 2019) we studied the determination of the delay time distribution (DTD) of binary neutron stars (BNS) through scaling relations between halo/stellar mass and the star formation history (SFH) of galaxies hosting gravitational wave (GW) events in the local universe. Here we explore how a detailed reconstruction of the individual SFHs of BNS merger host galaxies can improve on the use of the scaling relations. We use galaxies from the Galaxy and Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey, which is mass complete at $M_*>10^9$ M$_\odot$ in the redshift range $0.05<z<0.08$. We use the reconstructed SFHs derived from the Prospector code, for two distinct sets of priors (favoring continuous and bursty SFHs), and convolve those with power law DTDs characterized by an index $Γ$ and a minimum delay time $t_{\rm min}$. We find that with this approach $\mathcal{O}(100)-\mathcal{O}(300)$ host galaxies are required to constrain the DTD parameters, with the number depending on the choice of SFH prior and on the parameters of the true DTD. We further show that using only the host galaxies of BNS mergers, as opposed to the full population of potential host galaxies in the relevant cosmic volume, leads to a minor bias in the recovered DTD parameters. The required host galaxy sample size is nearly an order of magnitude smaller relative to the approach of using scaling relations, and we expect such a host galaxy sample to be collected within a decade or two, prior to the advent of third-generation GW detectors.

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arXiv2019

A 3D Dust Map Based on Gaia, Pan-STARRS 1 and 2MASS

We present a new three-dimensional map of dust reddening, based on Gaia parallaxes and stellar photometry from Pan-STARRS 1 and 2MASS. This map covers the sky north of a declination of -30 degrees, out to a distance of several kiloparsecs. This new map contains three major improvements over our previous work. First, the inclusion of Gaia parallaxes dramatically improves distance estimates to nearby stars. Second, we incorporate a spatial prior that correlates the dust density across nearby sightlines. This produces a smoother map, with more isotropic clouds and smaller distance uncertainties, particularly to clouds within the nearest kiloparsec. Third, we infer the dust density with a distance resolution that is four times finer than in our previous work, to accommodate the improvements in signal-to-noise enabled by the other improvements. As part of this work, we infer the distances, reddenings and types of 799 million stars. We obtain typical reddening uncertainties that are ~30% smaller than those reported in the Gaia DR2 catalog, reflecting the greater number of photometric passbands that enter into our analysis. Our 3D dust map can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/2EJ9TX or through the Python package "dustmaps," and can be queried interactively at http://argonaut.skymaps.info. Our catalog of stellar parameters can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/AV9GXO.

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arXiv2019

A Large Catalog of Accurate Distances to Local Molecular Clouds: The Gaia DR2 Edition

We present a uniform catalog of accurate distances to local molecular clouds informed by the Gaia DR2 data release. Our methodology builds on that of Schlafly et al. (2014). First, we infer the distance and extinction to stars along sightlines towards the clouds using optical and near-infrared photometry. When available, we incorporate knowledge of the stellar distances obtained from Gaia DR2 parallax measurements. We model these per-star distance-extinction estimates as being caused by a dust screen with a 2-D morphology derived from Planck at an unknown distance, which we then fit for using a nested sampling algorithm. We provide updated distances to the Schlafly et al. (2014) sightlines towards the Dame et al. (2001) and Magnani et al. (1985) clouds, finding good agreement with the earlier work. For a subset of 27 clouds, we construct interactive pixelated distance maps to further study detailed cloud structure, and find several clouds which display clear distance gradients and/or are comprised of multiple components. We use these maps to determine robust average distances to these clouds. The characteristic combined uncertainty on our distances is approximately 5-6%, though this can be higher for clouds at farther distances, due to the limitations of our single-cloud model.

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arXiv2019

How to Measure Galaxy Star Formation Histories II: Nonparametric Models

Nonparametric star formation histories (SFHs) have long promised to be the `gold standard' for galaxy spectral energy distribution (SED) modeling as they are flexible enough to describe the full diversity of SFH shapes, whereas parametric models rule out a significant fraction of these shapes {\it a priori}. However, this flexibility is not fully constrained even with high-quality observations, making it critical to choose a well-motivated prior. Here, we use the SED-fitting code \texttt{Prospector} to explore the effect of different nonparametric priors by fitting SFHs to mock UV-IR photometry generated from a diverse set of input SFHs. First, we confirm that nonparametric SFHs recover input SFHs with less bias and return more accurate errors than do parametric SFHs. We further find that, while nonparametric SFHs robustly recover the overall shape of the input SFH, the primary determinant of the size and shape of the posterior star formation rate (SFR) as a function of time is the choice of prior, rather than the photometric noise. As a practical demonstration, we fit the UV-IR photometry of $\sim$6000 galaxies from the GAMA survey and measure inter-prior scatters in mass (0.1 dex), SFR$_{100\; \mathrm{Myr}}$ (0.8 dex), and mass-weighted ages (0.2 dex), with the bluest star-forming galaxies showing the most sensitivity. An important distinguishing characteristic for nonparametric models is the characteristic timescale for changes in SFR(t). This difference controls whether galaxies are assembled in bursts or in steady-state star formation, corresponding respectively to (feedback-dominated/accretion-dominated) models of galaxy formation and to (larger/smaller) confidence intervals derived from SED-fitting. High-quality spectroscopy has the potential to further distinguish between these proposed models of SFR(t).

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arXiv2019

Measuring Star-Formation Histories, Distances, and Metallicities with Pixel Color-Magnitude Diagrams I: Model Definition and Mock Tests

We present a comprehensive study of the applications of the pixel color-magnitude diagram (pCMD) technique for measuring star formation histories (SFHs) and other stellar population parameters of galaxies, and demonstrate that the technique can also constrain distances. SFHs have previously been measured through either the modeling of resolved-star CMDs or of integrated-light SEDs, yet neither approach can easily be applied to galaxies in the "semi-resolved regime". The pCMD technique has previously been shown to have the potential to measure stellar populations and star formation histories in semi-resolved galaxies. Here we present Pixel Color-Magnitude Diagrams with Python (pcmdpy), a GPU-accelerated package that makes significant computational improvements to the original code and including more realistic physical models. These advances include the simultaneous fitting of distance, modeling a Gaussian metallicity-distribution function, and an observationally-motivated dust model. GPU-acceleration allows these more realistic models to be fit roughly 7x faster than the simpler models in the original code. We present results from a suite of mock tests, showing that with proper model assumptions, the code can simultaneously recover SFH, [Fe/H], distance, and dust extinction. Our results suggest the code, applied to observations with HST-like resolution, should constrain these properties with high precision within 10 Mpc and can be applied to systems out to as far as 100 Mpc. pCMDs open a new window to studying the stellar populations of many galaxies that cannot be readily studied through other means.

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arXiv2018

Towards a radially-resolved semi-analytic model for the evolution of disc galaxies tuned with machine learning

We present a flexible, detailed model for the evolution of galactic discs in a cosmological context since $z\approx 4$, including a physically-motivated model for radial transport of gas and stars within galactic discs. This expansion beyond traditional semi-analytic models that do not include radial structure, or include only a prescribed radial structure, enables us to study the internal structure of disc galaxies and the processes that drive it. In order to efficiently explore the large parameter space allowed by this model, we construct a neural network-based emulator that can quickly return a reasonable approximation for many observables we can extract from the model, e.g. the star formation rate or the half mass stellar radius, at different redshifts. We employ the emulator to constrain the model parameters with Bayesian inference by comparing its predictions to 11 observed galaxy scaling relations at a variety of redshifts. The constrained models agree well with observations, both those used to fit the data and those not included in the fitting procedure. These models will be useful theoretical tools for understanding the increasingly detailed observational datasets from IFUs.

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arXiv2018

Mapping Distances Across the Perseus Molecular Cloud Using CO Observations, Stellar Photometry, and Gaia DR2 Parallax Measurements

We present a new technique to determine distances to major star-forming regions across the Perseus Molecular Cloud, using a combination of stellar photometry, astrometric data, and $\rm ^{12} CO$ spectral-line maps. Incorporating the Gaia DR2 parallax measurements when available, we start by inferring the distance and reddening to stars from their Pan-STARRS1 and 2MASS photometry, based on a technique presented in Green et al. 2014; Green et al. 2015 and implemented in their 3D "Bayestar" dust map of three-quarters of the sky. We then refine the Green et al. technique by using the velocity slices of a CO spectral cube as dust templates and modeling the cumulative distribution of dust along the line of sight towards these stars as a linear combination of the emission in the slices. Using a nested sampling algorithm, we fit these per-star distance-reddening measurements to find the distances to the CO velocity slices towards each star-forming region. This results in distance estimates explicitly tied to the velocity structure of the molecular gas. We determine distances to the B5, IC348, B1, NGC1333, L1448, and L1451 star-forming regions and find that individual clouds are located between $\approx 275-300$ pc, with typical combined uncertainties of $\approx 5\%$. We find that the velocity gradient across Perseus corresponds to a distance gradient of about 25 pc, with the eastern portion of the cloud farther away than the western portion. We determine an average distance to the complex of $294\pm 17$ pc, about 60 pc higher than the distance derived to the western portion of the cloud using parallax measurements of water masers associated with young stellar objects. The method we present is not limited to the Perseus Complex, but may be applied anywhere on the sky with adequate CO data in the pursuit of more accurate 3D maps of molecular clouds in the solar neighborhood and beyond.

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arXiv2018

Source Selection for Cluster Weak Lensing Measurements in the Hyper Suprime-Cam Survey

We present optimized source galaxy selection schemes for measuring cluster weak lensing (WL) mass profiles unaffected by cluster member dilution from the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam Strategic Survey Program (HSC-SSP). The ongoing HSC-SSP survey will uncover thousands of galaxy clusters to $z\lesssim1.5$. In deriving cluster masses via WL, a critical source of systematics is contamination and dilution of the lensing signal by cluster {members, and by foreground galaxies whose photometric redshifts are biased}. Using the first-year CAMIRA catalog of $\sim$900 clusters with richness larger than 20 found in $\sim$140 deg$^2$ of HSC-SSP data, we devise and compare several source selection methods, including selection in color-color space (CC-cut), and selection of robust photometric redshifts by applying constraints on their cumulative probability distribution function (PDF; P-cut). We examine the dependence of the contamination on the chosen limits adopted for each method. Using the proper limits, these methods give mass profiles with minimal dilution in agreement with one another. We find that not adopting either the CC-cut or P-cut methods results in an underestimation of the total cluster mass ($13\pm4\%$) and the concentration of the profile ($24\pm11\%$). The level of cluster contamination can reach as high as $\sim10\%$ at $R\approx 0.24$ Mpc/$h$ for low-z clusters without cuts, while employing either the P-cut or CC-cut results in cluster contamination consistent with zero to within the 0.5% uncertainties. Our robust methods yield a $\sim60σ$ detection of the stacked CAMIRA surface mass density profile, with a mean mass of $M_\mathrm{200c} = (1.67\pm0.05({\rm {stat}}))\times 10^{14}\,M_\odot/h$.

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arXiv2017

The first-year shear catalog of the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam SSP Survey

We present and characterize the catalog of galaxy shape measurements that will be used for cosmological weak lensing measurements in the Wide layer of the first year of the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey. The catalog covers an area of 136.9 deg$^2$ split into six fields, with a mean $i$-band seeing of $0.58$ arcsec and $5σ$ point-source depth of $i\sim 26$. Given conservative galaxy selection criteria for first year science, the depth and excellent image quality results in unweighted and weighted source number densities of 24.6 and 21.8 arcmin$^{-2}$, respectively. We define the requirements for cosmological weak lensing science with this catalog, then focus on characterizing potential systematics in the catalog using a series of internal null tests for problems with point-spread function (PSF) modeling, shear estimation, and other aspects of the image processing. We find that the PSF models narrowly meet requirements for weak lensing science with this catalog, with fractional PSF model size residuals of approximately $0.003$ (requirement: 0.004) and the PSF model shape correlation function $ρ_1<3\times 10^{-7}$ (requirement: $4\times 10^{-7}$) at 0.5$^\circ$ scales. A variety of galaxy shape-related null tests are statistically consistent with zero, but star-galaxy shape correlations reveal additive systematics on $>1^\circ$ scales that are sufficiently large as to require mitigation in cosmic shear measurements. Finally, we discuss the dominant systematics and the planned algorithmic changes to reduce them in future data reductions.

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arXiv2017

An optically-selected cluster catalog at redshift 0.1<z<1.1 from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program S16A data

We present an optically-selected cluster catalog from the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) Subaru Strategic Program. The HSC images are sufficiently deep to detect cluster member galaxies down to $M_*\sim 10^{10.2}M_\odot$ even at $z\sim 1$, allowing a reliable cluster detection at such high redshifts. We apply the CAMIRA algorithm to the HSC Wide S16A dataset covering $\sim 232$ deg$^2$ to construct a catalog of 1921 clusters at redshift $0.1 15$ that roughly corresponds to $M_{\rm 200m}\gtrsim 10^{14}h^{-1}M_\odot$. We confirm good cluster photometric redshift performance, with the bias and scatter in $Δz/(1+z)$ being better than 0.005 and 0.01 over most of the redshift range, respectively. We compare our cluster catalog with large X-ray cluster catalogs from XXL and XMM-LSS surveys and find good correlation between richness and X-ray properties. We also study the miscentering effect from the distribution of offsets between optical and X-ray cluster centers. We confirm the high ($>0.9$) completeness and purity for high mass clusters by analyzing mock galaxy catalogs.

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arXiv2015

Deriving Photometric Redshifts using Fuzzy Archetypes and Self-Organizing Maps. I. Methodology

We propose a method to substantially increase the flexibility and power of template fitting-based photometric redshifts by transforming a large numbers of galaxy spectral templates into a corrresponding collection of "fuzzy archetypes" using a suitable set of perturbative priors designed to account for empirical variation in dust attenuation and emission line strengths. To bypass widely seperated degeneracies in parameter space (e.g., the redshift-reddening degeneracy), we train Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) on a large "model catalogs" generated from appropriate Monte Carlo sampling of our fuzzy archetypes to cluster the predicted observables in a topologically smooth fashion. Subsequent sampling over the SOM then allows full reconstruction of the relevant probability distribution functions (PDFs) using the associated set of inverse mappings from the SOM to the underlying model parameters. This combined approach enables the multi-modal exploration of known variation among galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs) using large numbers of archetypes with minimal modeling assumptions. We demonstrate the power of this approach to recover full redshift PDFs using discrete Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods combined with SOMs constructed from model catalogs based on LSST $ugrizY$ and Euclid $YJH$ mock photometry.

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arXiv2015

Deriving Photometric Redshifts using Fuzzy Archetypes and Self-Organizing Maps. II. Comparing Sampling Techniques Using Mock Data

In a companion paper, we proposed combining large numbers of "fuzzy archetypes" with Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) to derive photometric redshifts in a data-driven way. In this paper, we investigate the performance of several sampling approaches that build on this general idea using a mock catalog designed to approximately simulate LSST ($ugrizY$) and Euclid ($YJH$) data from $z=0-6$ at fixed LSST $Y=24$ mag. We test eight different approaches: two brute-force methods, two Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-based methods, two hierarchical sampling methods, and two "quick-search" methods based on quantities derived during the initial SOM training process. We find most methods perform reasonably well with small catastrophic outlier fractions and are able to robustly identify redshift probability distribution functions that are multi-modal and/or poorly constrained. Once these insecure objects are removed, the results are generally in good agreement with the strict accuracy requirements necessary to meet Euclid weak lensing goals for most redshifts above $z \sim 0.8$. These results demonstrate the utility of our data clustering-based approach and highlight its effectiveness to derive quick and accurate photo-z's using large numbers of templates.

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arXiv2015

Exploring Photometric Redshifts as an Optimization Problem: An Ensemble MCMC and Simulated Annealing-Driven Template-Fitting Approach

Using a grid of $\sim 2$ million elements ($Δz = 0.005$) adapted from COSMOS photometric redshift (photo-z) searches, we investigate the general properties of template-based photo-z likelihood surfaces. We find these surfaces are filled with numerous local minima and large degeneracies that generally confound rapid but "greedy" optimization schemes, even with additional stochastic sampling methods. In order to robustly and efficiently explore these surfaces, we develop BAD-Z [Brisk Annealing-Driven Redshifts (Z)], which combines ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling with simulated annealing to sample arbitrarily large, pre-generated grids in approximately constant time. Using a mock catalog of 384,662 objects, we show BAD-Z samples $\sim 40$ times more efficiently compared to a brute-force counterpart while maintaining similar levels of accuracy. Our results represent first steps toward designing template-fitting photo-z approaches limited mainly by memory constraints rather than computation time.

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arXiv2014

A Highly Consistent Framework for the Evolution of the Star-Forming "Main Sequence" from z~0-6

Using a compilation of 25 studies from the literature, we investigate the evolution of the star-forming galaxy (SFG) Main Sequence (MS) in stellar mass and star formation rate (SFR) out to $z \sim 6$. After converting all observations to a common set of calibrations, we find a remarkable consensus among MS observations ($\sim 0.1$ dex 1$σ$ interpublication scatter). By fitting for time evolution of the MS in bins of constant mass, we deconvolve the observed scatter about the MS within each observed redshift bins. After accounting for observed scatter between different SFR indicators, we find the width of the MS distribution is $\sim 0.2$ dex and remains constant over cosmic time. Our best fits indicate the slope of the MS is likely time-dependent, with our best fit $\log\textrm{SFR}(M_*,t) = \left(0.84 \pm 0.02 - 0.026 \pm 0.003 \times t\right) \log M_* - \left(6.51 \pm 0.24 - 0.11 \pm 0.03 \times t\right)$, with $t$ the age of the Universe in Gyr. We use our fits to create empirical evolutionary tracks in order to constrain MS galaxy star formation histories (SFHs), finding that (1) the most accurate representations of MS SFHs are given by delayed-$τ$ models, (2) the decline in fractional stellar mass growth for a "typical" MS galaxy today is approximately linear for most of its lifetime, and (3) scatter about the MS can be generated by galaxies evolving along identical evolutionary tracks assuming an initial $1σ$ spread in formation times of $\sim 1.4$ Gyr.

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