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Julio Backhoff-Veraguas

Publications and source records attributed to Julio Backhoff-Veraguas.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

The Gradient Flow of the Bass Functional in Martingale Optimal Transport

Given $\mu$ and $\nu$, probability measures on $\mathbb R^d$ in convex order, a Bass martingale is arguably the most natural martingale starting with law $\mu$ and finishing with law $\nu$. Indeed, this martingale is obtained by stretching a reference Brownian motion so as to meet the data $\mu,\nu$. Unless $\mu$ is a Dirac, the existence of a Bass martingale is a delicate subject, since for instance the reference Brownian motion must be allowed to have a non-trivial initial distribution $\alpha$, not known in advance. Thus the key to obtaining the Bass martingale, theoretically as well as practically, lies in finding $\alpha$. In \cite{BaSchTsch23} it has been shown that $\alpha$ is determined as the minimizer of the so-called Bass functional. In the present paper we propose to minimize this functional by following its gradient flow, or more precisely, the gradient flow of its $L^2$-lift. In our main result we show that this gradient flow converges in norm to a minimizer of the Bass functional, and when $d=1$ we further establish that convergence is exponentially fast.

math.PR

Specific Wasserstein divergence between continuous martingales

Defining a divergence between the laws of continuous martingales is a delicate task, owing to the fact that these laws tend to be singular to each other. An important idea, put forward by N. Gantert, is to instead consider a scaling limit of the relative entropy between such continuous martingales sampled over a finite time grid. This gives rise to the concept of specific relative entropy. In order to develop a general theory of divergences between continuous martingales, it is only natural to replace the role of the relative entropy in this construction by a different notion of discrepancy between finite dimensional probability distributions. In the present work we take a first step in this direction, taking a power $p$ of the Wasserstein distance instead of the relative entropy. We call the newly obtained scaling limit the specific $p$-Wasserstein divergence. In our first main result we prove that the specific $p$-Wasserstein divergence is well-defined, exhibit an explicit expression for it in terms of the quadratic variations of the martingales involved, and compare it with the specific relative entropy and adapted Wasserstein distance on a class of SDEs. Next we consider the specific $p$-Wasserstein divergence optimization over the set of win-martingales. In our second main result we characterize the solution of this optimization problem for all $p>0$ and, somewhat surprisingly, we single out the case $p=1/2$ as the one with the best probabilistic properties. For instance, the optimal martingale in this case is very explicit and can be connected to the solution of a variant of the Schr\"odinger problem.

math.PR

Stochastic Gradient Descent for Barycenters in Wasserstein Space

We present and study a novel algorithm for the computation of 2-Wasserstein population barycenters of absolutely continuous probability measures on Euclidean space. The proposed method can be seen as a stochastic gradient descent procedure in the 2-Wasserstein space, as well as a manifestation of a Law of Large Numbers therein. The algorithm aims at finding a Karcher mean or critical point in this setting, and can be implemented ``online", sequentially using i.i.d. random measures sampled from the population law. We provide natural sufficient conditions for this algorithm to a.s. converge in the Wasserstein space towards the population barycenter, and we introduce a novel, general condition which ensures uniqueness of Karcher means and moreover allows us to obtain explicit, parametric convergence rates for the expected optimality gap. We furthermore study the mini-batch version of this algorithm, and discuss examples of families of population laws to which our method and results can be applied. This work expands and deepens ideas and results introduced in an early version of \cite{backhoff2018bayesian}, in which a statistical application (and numerical implementation) of this method is developed in the context of Bayesian learning.

math.OC

The Bass functional of martingale transport

An interesting question in the field of martingale optimal transport, is to determine the martingale with prescribed initial and terminal marginals which is most correlated to Brownian motion. Under a necessary and sufficient irreducibility condition, the answer to this question is given by a $\textit{Bass martingale}$. At an intuitive level, the latter can be imagined as an order-preserving and martingale-preserving space transformation of an underlying Brownian motion starting with an initial law $α$ which is tuned to ensure the marginal constraints. In this article we study how to determine the aforementioned initial condition $α$. This is done by a careful study of what we dub the $\textit{Bass functional}$. In our main result we show the equivalence between the existence of minimizers of the Bass functional and the existence of a Bass martingale with prescribed marginals. This complements the convex duality approach in a companion paper by the present authors together with M. Beiglböck, with a purely variational perspective. We also establish an infinitesimal version of this result, and furthermore prove the displacement convexity of the Bass functional along certain generalized geodesics in the $2$-Wasserstein space.

math.PR

On the specific relative entropy between martingale diffusions on the line

The specific relative entropy, introduced by N. Gantert, allows to quantify the discrepancy between the laws of potentially mutually singular measures. It appears naturally as the large deviations rate function in a randomized version of Donsker's invariance principle, as well as in a novel transport-information inequality recently derived by H. Foellmer. A conjecture, put forward by the aforementioned authors, concerns a closed form expression for the specific relative entropy between continuous martingale laws in terms of their quadratic variations. We provide a first partial result in this direction, by establishing this conjecture in the case of well-behaved martingale diffusions on the line.

math.PR

A non-linear monotonicity principle and applications to Schrödinger type problems

A basic idea in optimal transport is that optimizers can be characterized through a geometric property of their support sets called cyclical monotonicity. In recent years, similar "monotonicity principles" have found applications in other fields where infinite dimensional linear optimization problems play an important role. In this note, we observe how this approach can be transferred to non-linear optimization problems. Specifically we establish a monotonicity principle that is applicable to the Schrödinger problem and use it to characterize the structure of optimizers for target functionals beyond relative entropy. In contrast to classical convex duality approaches, a main novelty is that the monotonicity principle allows to deal also with non-convex functionals.

math.OC

The most exciting game

Motivated by a problem posed by Aldous, our goal is to find the maximal-entropy win-martingale: In a sports game between two teams, the chance the home team wins is initially $x_0 \in (0,1)$ and finally 0 or 1. As an idealization we take a continuous time interval $[0,1]$ and consider the process $M=(M_t)_{t\in [0,1]}$ giving the probability at time $t$ that the home team wins. This is a martingale which we idealize further to have continuous paths. We consider the problem to find the most random martingale $M$ of this type, where `most random' is interpreted as a maximal entropy criterion. We observe that this max-entropy win-martingale $M$ also minimizes specific relative entropy with respect to Brownian motion in the sense of Gantert and use this to prove that $M$ is characterized by the stochastic differential equation $$ dM_t = \frac{\sin (πM_t )} {π\sqrt {1-t}}\, dB_t.$$ To derive the form of the optimizer we use a scaling argument together with a new first order condition for martingale optimal transport which may be of interest in its own right.

math.PR

Existence of Bass martingales and the martingale Benamou$-$Brenier problem in $\mathbb{R}^{d}$

In classical optimal transport, the contributions of Benamou$-$Brenier and McCann regarding the time-dependent version of the problem are cornerstones of the field and form the basis for a variety of applications in other mathematical areas. In this article, we characterize solutions to the martingale Benamou$-$Brenier problem as $\textit{Bass martingales}$, i.e. transformations of Brownian motion through the gradient of a convex function. Our result is based on a new (static) Brenier-type theorem for a particular weak martingale optimal transport problem. As in the classical case, the structure of the primal optimizer is derived from its dual counterpart, whose derivation forms the technical core of this article. A key challenge is that dual attainment is a subtle issue in martingale optimal transport, where dual optimizers may fail to exist, even in highly regular settings.

math.PR

Bayesian Learning with Wasserstein Barycenters

We introduce and study a novel model-selection strategy for Bayesian learning, based on optimal transport, along with its associated predictive posterior law: the Wasserstein population barycenter of the posterior law over models. We first show how this estimator, termed Bayesian Wasserstein barycenter (BWB), arises naturally in a general, parameter-free Bayesian model-selection framework, when the considered Bayesian risk is the Wasserstein distance. Examples are given, illustrating how the BWB extends some classic parametric and non-parametric selection strategies. Furthermore, we also provide explicit conditions granting the existence and statistical consistency of the BWB, and discuss some of its general and specific properties, providing insights into its advantages compared to usual choices, such as the model average estimator. Finally, we illustrate how this estimator can be computed using the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm in Wasserstein space introduced in a companion paper arXiv:2201.04232v2 [math.OC], and provide a numerical example for experimental validation of the proposed method.

stat.ML

Adapted Wasserstein distance between the laws of SDEs

We consider the bicausal optimal transport problem between the laws of scalar time-homogeneous stochastic differential equations, and we establish the optimality of the synchronous coupling between these laws. The proof of this result is based on time-discretisation and reveals a novel connection between the synchronous coupling and the celebrated discrete-time Knothe--Rosenblatt rearrangement. We also prove a result on equality of topologies restricted to a certain subset of laws of continuous-time processes. We complement our main results with examples showing how the optimal coupling may change in path-dependent and multidimensional settings.

math.PR

Dynamic Cournot-Nash Equilibrium: The Non-Potential Case

We consider a large population dynamic game in discrete time where players are characterized by time-evolving types. It is a natural assumption that the players' actions cannot anticipate future values of their types. Such games go under the name of dynamic Cournot-Nash equilibria, and were first studied by Acciaio et al., as a time/information dependent version of the games devised by Blanchet and Carlier for the static situation, under an extra assumption that the game is of potential type. The latter means that the game can be reduced to the resolution of an auxiliary variational problem. In the present work we study dynamic Cournot-Nash equilibria in their natural generality, namely going beyond the potential case. As a first result, we derive existence and uniqueness of equilibria under suitable assumptions. Second, we study the convergence of the natural fixed-point iterations scheme in the quadratic case. Finally we illustrate the previously mentioned results in a toy model of optimal liquidation with price impact, which is a game of non-potential kind.

math.OC

Robust Contracting in General Contract Spaces

We consider a general framework of optimal mechanism design under adverse selection and ambiguity about the type distribution of agents. We prove the existence of optimal mechanisms under minimal assumptions on the contract space and prove that centralized contracting implemented via mechanisms is equivalent to delegated contracting implemented via a contract menu under these assumptions. Our abstract existence results are applied to a series of applications that include models of optimal risk sharing and of optimal portfolio delegation.

math.OC

Stability of martingale optimal transport and weak optimal transport

Under mild regularity assumptions, the transport problem is stable in the following sense: if a sequence of optimal transport plans $π_1, π_2, \ldots$ converges weakly to a transport plan $π$, then $π$ is also optimal (between its marginals). Alfonsi, Corbetta and Jourdain asked whether the same property is true for the martingale transport problem. This question seems particularly pressing since martingale transport is motivated by robust finance where data is naturally noisy. On a technical level, stability in the martingale case appears more intricate than for classical transport since optimal transport plans $π$ are not characterized by a `monotonicity'-property of their support. In this paper we give a positive answer and establish stability of the martingale transport problem. As a particular case, this recovers the stability of the left curtain coupling established by Juillet. An important auxiliary tool is an unconventional topology which takes the temporal structure of martingales into account. Our techniques also apply to the the weak transport problem introduced by Gozlan, Roberto, Samson and Tetali.

math.PR

Cournot-Nash equilibrium and optimal transport in a dynamic setting

We consider a large population dynamic game in discrete time. The peculiarity of the game is that players are characterized by time-evolving types, and so reasonably their actions should not anticipate the future values of their types. When interactions between players are of mean-field kind, we relate Nash equilibria for such games to an asymptotic notion of dynamic Cournot-Nash equilibria. Inspired by the works of Blanchet and Carlier for the static situation, we interpret dynamic Cournot-Nash equilibria in the light of causal optimal transport theory. Further specializing to games of potential type, we establish existence, uniqueness and characterization of equilibria. Moreover we develop, for the first time, a numerical scheme for causal optimal transport, which is then leveraged in order to compute dynamic Cournot-Nash equilibria. This is illustrated in a detailed case study of a congestion game.

math.OC

All Adapted Topologies are Equal

A number of researchers have introduced topological structures on the set of laws of stochastic processes. A unifying goal of these authors is to strengthen the usual weak topology in order to adequately capture the temporal structure of stochastic processes. Aldous defines an extended weak topology based on the weak convergence of prediction processes. In the economic literature, Hellwig introduced the information topology to study the stability of equilibrium problems. Bion-Nadal and Talay introduce a version of the Wasserstein distance between the laws of diffusion processes. Pflug and Pichler consider the nested distance (and the weak nested topology) to obtain continuity of stochastic multistage programming problems. These distances can be seen as a symmetrization of Lassalle's causal transport problem, but there are also further natural ways to derive a topology from causal transport. Our main result is that all of these seemingly independent approaches define the same topology in finite discrete time. Moreover we show that this 'weak adapted topology' is characterized as the coarsest topology that guarantees continuity of optimal stopping problems for continuous bounded reward functions.

math.PR

Adapted Wasserstein Distances and Stability in Mathematical Finance

Assume that an agent models a financial asset through a measure Q with the goal to price / hedge some derivative or optimize some expected utility. Even if the model Q is chosen in the most skilful and sophisticated way, she is left with the possibility that Q does not provide an "exact" description of reality. This leads us to the following question: will the hedge still be somewhat meaningful for models in the proximity of Q? If we measure proximity with the usual Wasserstein distance (say), the answer is NO. Models which are similar w.r.t. Wasserstein distance may provide dramatically different information on which to base a hedging strategy. Remarkably, this can be overcome by considering a suitable "adapted" version of the Wasserstein distance which takes the temporal structure of pricing models into account. This adapted Wasserstein distance is most closely related to the nested distance as pioneered by Pflug and Pichler \cite{Pf09,PfPi12,PfPi14}. It allows us to establish Lipschitz properties of hedging strategies for semimartingale models in discrete and continuous time. Notably, these abstract results are sharp already for Brownian motion and European call options.

q-fin.MF

Generalized entropy minimization under full marginal constraints

We consider the problem of minimizing a generalized relative entropy, with respect to a reference diffusion law, over the set of path-measures with fully prescribed marginal distributions. When dealing with the actual relative entropy, problems of this kind have appeared in the stochastic mechanics literature, and minimizers go under the name of Nelson Processes. Through convex duality and stochastic control techniques, we obtain in our main result the full characterization of minimizers, containing the related results in the pioneering works of Cattiaux \& Léonard and Mikami as particular cases. We also establish that minimizers need not be Markovian in general, and may depend on the form of the generalized relative entropy if the state space has dimension greater or equal than two. Finally, we illustrate how generalized relative entropy minimization problems of this kind may prove useful beyond stochastic mechanics, by means of two applications: the analysis of certain mean-field games, and the study of scaling limits for a class of backwards SDEs.

math.OC

The mean field Schrödinger problem: ergodic behavior, entropy estimates and functional inequalities

We study the mean field Schrödinger problem (MFSP), that is the problem of finding the most likely evolution of a cloud of interacting Brownian particles conditionally on the observation of their initial and final configuration. Its rigorous formulation is in terms of an optimization problem with marginal constraints whose objective function is the large deviation rate function associated with a system of weakly dependent Brownian particles. We undertake a fine study of the dynamics of its solutions, including quantitative energy dissipation estimates yielding the exponential convergence to equilibrium as the the time between observations grows larger and larger, as well as a novel class of functional inequalities involving the mean field entropic cost (i.e. the optimal value in (MFSP)). Our strategy unveils an interesting connection between forward backward stochastic differential equations and the Riemannian calculus on the space of probability measures introduced by Otto, which is of independent interest.

math.PR