arXiv subjects

K. E. S. Ford

Publications and source records attributed to K. E. S. Ford.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Prospects for the formation of GW231123 from the AGN channel

The recent binary black hole (BBH) merger GW231123 consisted of the merger of two intermediate mass black holes (IMBH) which appear to have large spin magnitudes. Active galactic nuclei (AGN) are very promising environments for IMBH mergers and growth due to high escape velocities. Here we demonstrate how GW231123 can be produced in the AGN channel. Using the McFACTS code, we explore the impact of various choices of the black hole (BH) initial mass function (IMF) on predicted mass and spin magnitudes of BBH mergers from the AGN dynamical formation channel. By integrating the likelihood function for GW231123 with the detectable BBH population predicted from AGN using McFACTS, we demonstrate that GW231123 is consistent with a dynamical BBH merger from the AGN channel. We also postulate that the masses and spin magnitudes of GW231123 are most consistent with a merger of fourth and third generation BHs, for most choices of a segregated BH IMF and AGN lifetime.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

NuSTAR Observations of Candidate Subparsec Binary Supermassive Black Holes

We present analysis of NuSTAR X-ray observations of three AGN that were identified as candidate subparsec binary supermassive black hole (SMBH) systems in the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey based on apparent periodicity in their optical light curves. Simulations predict that close-separation accreting SMBH binaries will have different X-ray spectra than single accreting SMBHs. We previously observed these AGN with Chandra and found no differences between their low energy X-ray properties and the larger AGN population. However some models predict differences to be more prominent at energies higher than probed by Chandra. We find that even at the higher energies probed by NuSTAR, the spectra of these AGN are indistinguishable from the larger AGN population. This could rule out models predicting large differences in the X-ray spectra in the NuSTAR bands. Alternatively, it might mean that these three AGN are not binary SMBHs.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Constraining the LIGO/Virgo AGN channel with black hole spins

Merging black holes (BH) are expected to produce remnants with large dimensionless spin parameters ($a_{\rm spin} \sim 0.7$). However, gravitational wave (GW) observations with LIGO/Virgo suggest that merging BH are consistent with modestly positive but not high spin ($a_{\rm spin} \sim 0.2$), causing tension with models suggesting that high mass mergers are produced by hierarchical merger channels. Some BH also show evidence for strong in-plane spin components. Here we point out that \emph{spin down} of BH due to eccentric prograde post-merger orbits within the gas of an active galactic nucleus (AGN) disk can yield BH with masses in the upper mass gap, but only modestly positive $a_{\rm spin}$, and thus observations of BH with low spin \emph{do not} rule out hierarchical models. We also point out that the fraction of BBH mergers with significant in-plane spin components is a strong test of interactions between disk binary black holes (BBH) and nuclear spheroid orbiters. Spin magnitude and spin tilt constraints from LIGO/Virgo observations of BBH are an excellent test of dynamics of black holes in AGN disks, disk properties and the nuclear clusters interacting with AGN.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Effects of an Immortal Stellar Population in AGN Disks

Stars are likely embedded in the gas disks of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN). Theoretical models predict that in the inner regions of the disk these stars accrete rapidly, with fresh gas replenishing hydrogen in their cores faster than it is burned into helium, effectively stalling their evolution at hydrogen burning. We produce order-of-magnitude estimates of the number of such stars in a fiducial AGN disk. We find numbers of order $10^{2-4}$, confined to the inner $r_{\rm cap} \sim 3000 r_s \sim 0.03\rm pc$. These stars can profoundly alter the chemistry of AGN disks, enriching them in helium and depleting them in hydrogen, both by order-unity amounts. We further consider mergers between these stars and other disk objects, suggesting that star-star mergers result in rapid mass loss from the remnant to restore an equilibrium mass, while star-compact object mergers may result in exotic outcomes and even host binary black hole mergers within themselves. Finally, we examine how these stars react as the disk dissipates towards the end of its life, and find that they may return mass to the disk fast enough to extend its lifetime by a factor of several and/or may drive powerful outflows from the disk. Post-AGN, these stars rapidly lose mass and form a population of stellar mass black holes around $10M_{\odot}$. Due to the complex and uncertain interactions between embedded stars and the disk, their plausible ubiquity, and their order unity impact on disk structure and evolution, they must be included in realistic disk models.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2021

GW190521 as a black-hole merger coincident with the ZTF19abanrhr flare

We present an analysis that reconciles the gravitational-wave signal GW190521 observed by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors with the electromagnetic flare ZTF19abanrhr observed by the Zwicky Transient Facility. We analyze GW190521 under a mass-ratio prior uniform in $Q \in [1,4]$ and using the state-of-the-art waveform model for black-hole mergers \texttt{NRSur7dq4}. We find a $90\%$ credible region for the black-hole masses extending far outside what originally reported by \cite{GW190521D}, where our maximum likelihood masses reside. We find a $15\%$ probability that both black holes avoid the pair-instability supernova gap. We infer a three-dimensional sky-location highly consistent with ZTF19abanrhr, obtaining an odds-ratio ${\cal{O}}_{C/R}=72:1$ that strongly favors the hypothesis of a true coincidence over a random one. Combining this event with the neutron-star merger GW170817, we estimate a Hubble constant H$_0=72.1^{+10.6}_{-6.4}\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$ at the $68\%$ credible level.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2021

Starfall: A heavy rain of stars in 'turning on' AGN

As active galactic nuclei (AGN) `turn on', some stars end up embedded in accretion disks around supermassive black holes (SMBHs) on retrograde orbits. Such stars experience strong headwinds, aerodynamic drag, ablation and orbital evolution on short timescales. Loss of orbital angular momentum in the first $\sim 0.1$~Myr of an AGN leads to a heavy rain of stars (`starfall') into the inner disk and onto the SMBH. A large AGN loss cone ($θ_{\rm AGN,lc}$) can result from binary scatterings in the inner disk and yield tidal disruption events (TDEs). Signatures of starfall include optical/UV flares that rise in luminosity over time, particularly in the inner disk. If the SMBH mass is $M_{\rm SMBH} \ge 10^{8}M_{\odot}$, flares truncate abruptly and the star is swallowed. If $M_{\rm SMBH}<10^{8}M_{\odot}$, and if the infalling orbit lies within $θ_{\rm AGN,lc}$, the flare is followed by a TDE which can be prograde or retrograde relative to the AGN inner disk. Retrograde AGN TDEs are over-luminous and short-lived as in-plane ejecta collide with the inner disk and a lower AGN state follows. Prograde AGN TDEs add angular momentum to inner disk gas and so start off looking like regular TDEs but are followed by an AGN high state. Searches for such flare signatures test models of AGN `turn on', SMBH mass, as well as disk properties and the embedded population.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

LIGO--Virgo correlations between mass ratio and effective inspiral spin: testing the active galactic nuclei channel

Observations by LIGO--Virgo of binary black hole mergers suggest a possible anti-correlation between black hole mass ratio ($q=m_{2}/m_{1}$) and the effective inspiral spin parameter $χ_{\rm eff}$, the mass-weighted spin projection onto the binary orbital angular momentum (Callister et al. 2021). We show that such an anti-correlation can naturally occur for binary black holes assembled in active galactic nuclei (AGN) due to spherical and planar symmetry-breaking effects. We describe a phenomenological model in which: 1) heavier black holes live in the AGN disk and tend to spin up into alignment with the disk; 2) lighter black holes with random spin orientations live in the nuclear spheroid; 3) the AGN disk is dense enough to rapidly capture a fraction of the spheroid component. but small in radial extent to limit the number of bulk disk mergers; 4) migration within the disk is non-uniform, likely disrupted by feedback from migrators or disk turbulence; 5) dynamical encounters in the disk are common and preferentially disrupt binaries that are retrograde around their center of mass, particularly at stalling orbits, or traps. This model may explain trends in LIGO--Virgo data while offering falsifiable predictions. Comparisons of predictions in ($q,χ_{\rm eff}$) parameter space for the different channels may allow us to distinguish their fractional contributions to the observed merger rates.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Prospects of gravitational-waves detections from common-envelope evolution with LISA

Understanding common envelope (CE) evolution is an outstanding problem in binary evolution. Although the CE phase is not driven by gravitational-wave (GW) emission, the in-spiraling binary emits GWs that passively trace the CE dynamics. Detecting this GW signal would provide direct insight into the gas-driven physics. Even a non-detection might offer invaluable constraints. We investigate the prospects of detection of a Galactic CE by LISA. While the dynamical phase of the CE is likely sufficiently loud for detection, it is short and thus rare. We focus instead on the self-regulated phase that proceeds on a thermal timescale. Based on population synthesis calculations and the (unknown) signal duration in the LISA band, we expect $\sim 0.1-100$ sources in the Galaxy during the mission duration. We map the GW observable parameter space of frequency $f_\mathrm{GW}$ and its derivative $\dot f_\mathrm{GW}$ remaining agnostic on the specifics of the inspiral, and find that signals with $\mathrm{SNR}>10$ are possible if the CE stalls at separations such that $f_\mathrm{GW}\gtrsim2\times10^{-3}\,\mathrm{Hz}$. We investigate the possibility of misidentifying the signal with other known sources. If the second derivative $\ddot f_\mathrm{GW}$ can also be measured, the signal can be distinguished from other sources using a GW braking-index. Alternatively, coupling LISA with electromagnetic observations of peculiar red giant stars and/or infrared and optical transients might allow for the disentangling of a Galactic CE from other Galactic and extra-galactic GW sources.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Black hole, neutron star and white dwarf merger rates in AGN disks

Advanced LIGO \& Advanced Virgo are detecting a large number of binary stellar origin black hole (BH) mergers. A promising channel for accelerated BH merger lies in active galactic nucleus (AGN) disks of gas around super-masssive black holes. Here we investigate the relative number of compact object mergers in AGN disk models, including BH, neutron stars (NS) and white dwarfs, via Monte Carlo simulations. We find the number of all merger types in the bulk disk grows $\propto t^{1/3}$ which is driven by the Hill sphere of the more massive merger component. Median mass ratios of NS-BH mergers in AGN disks are $\tilde{q}=0.07\pm 0.06(0.14\pm 0.07)$ for mass functions (MF) $M^{-1(-2)}$. If a fraction $f_{AGN}$ of the observed rate of BH-BH mergers (${\cal}{R}_{BH-BH}$) come from AGN, we expect a rate of NS-BH (NS-NS) mergers from the AGN channel of ${\cal}{R}_{BH-NS} \sim f_{AGN}[10,300]\rm{Gpc}^{-3} \rm{yr}^{-1}$,(${\cal}{R}_{NS-NS} \leq f_{AGN}400\rm{Gpc}^{-3} \rm{yr}^{-1}$). Allowing for the ratio of NS-NS/BH-BH LIGO search volumes, from preliminary O3 results we can rule out the AGN channel as a dominant contribution to observed NS-NS mergers. The number of lower mass gap events in this channel is a strong function of the nuclear MF and mass segregation efficiency. Compact object merger ratios derived from LIGO can restrict models of MF, mass segregation and populations embedded in AGN disks. The expected number of EM counterparts to NS-BH mergers in AGN disks at $z<1$ is $\sim [30,900]{\rm{yr}}^{-1}(f_{AGN}/0.1)$. EM searches for flaring due to embedded events in large AGN surveys will complement LIGO constraints on AGN models and the embedded populations that must live in them.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

Candidate Electromagnetic Counterpart to the Binary Black Hole Merger Gravitational Wave Event S190521g

We report the first plausible optical electromagnetic (EM) counterpart to a (candidate) binary black hole (BBH) merger. Detected by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), the EM flare is consistent with expectations for a kicked BBH merger in the accretion disk of an active galactic nucleus (AGN), and is unlikely ($<O(0.01\%$)) due to intrinsic variability of this source. The lack of color evolution implies that it is not a supernovae and instead is strongly suggestive of a constant temperature shock. Other false-positive events, such as microlensing or a tidal disruption event, are ruled out or constrained to be $<O(0.1\%$). If the flare is associated with S190521g, we find plausible values of: total mass $ M_{\rm BBH} \sim 100 M_{\odot}$, kick velocity $v_k \sim 200\, {\rm km}\, {\rm s}^{-1}$ at $θ\sim 60^{\circ}$ in a disk with aspect ratio $H/a \sim 0.01$ (i.e., disk height $H$ at radius $a$) and gas density $ρ\sim 10^{-10}\, {\rm g}\, {\rm cm}^{-3}$. The merger could have occurred at a disk migration trap ($a \sim 700\, r_{g}$; $r_g \equiv G M_{\rm SMBH} / c^2$, where $M_{\rm SMBH}$ is the mass of the AGN supermassive black hole). The combination of parameters implies a significant spin for at least one of the black holes in S190521g. The timing of our spectroscopy prevents useful constraints on broad-line asymmetry due to an off-center flare. We predict a repeat flare in this source due to a re-encountering with the disk in $\sim 1.6\, {\rm yr}\, (M_{\rm SMBH}/10^{8}M_{\odot})\, (a/10^{3}r_{g})^{3/2}$.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

Monte-Carlo simulations of black hole mergers in AGN disks: Low $χ_{\rm eff}$ mergers and predictions for LIGO

Accretion disks around supermassive black holes are promising sites for stellar mass black hole mergers detectable with LIGO. Here we present the results of Monte-Carlo simulations of black hole mergers within 1-d AGN disk models. For the spin distribution in the disk bulk, key findings are: (1) The distribution of $χ_{\rm eff}$ is naturally centered around $\tildeχ_{\rm eff} \approx 0.0$, (2) the width of the $χ_{\rm eff}$ distribution is narrow for low natal spins. For the mass distribution in the disk bulk, key findings are: (3) mass ratios $\tilde{q} \sim 0.5-0.7$, (4) the maximum merger mass in the bulk is $\sim 100-200M_{\odot}$, (5) $\sim 1\%$ of bulk mergers involve BH $>50M_{\odot}$ with (6) $\simeq 80\%$ of bulk mergers are pairs of 1st generation BH. Additionally, mergers at a migration trap grow an IMBH with typical merger mass ratios $\tilde{q}\sim 0.1$. Ongoing LIGO non-detections of black holes $>10^{2}M_{\odot}$ puts strong limits on the presence of migration traps in AGN disks (and therefore AGN disk density and structure) as well as median AGN disk lifetime. The highest merger rate occurs for this channel if AGN disks are relatively short-lived ($\leq 1$Myr) so multiple AGN episodes can happen per Galactic nucleus in a Hubble time.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

Extreme variability in an active galactic nucleus: Gaia16aax

We present the results of a multi-wavelength follow up campaign for the luminous nuclear transient Gaia16aax, which was first identified in January 2016. The transient is spatially consistent with the nucleus of an active galaxy at z=0.25, hosting a black hole of mass $\rm \sim6\times10^8M_\odot$. The nucleus brightened by more than 1 magnitude in the Gaia G-band over a timescale of less than one year, before fading back to its pre-outburst state over the following three years. The optical spectra of the source show broad Balmer lines similar to the ones present in a pre-outburst spectrum. During the outburst, the $\rm Hα$ and $\rm Hβ$ emission lines develop a secondary peak. We also report on the discovery of two transients with similar light curve evolution and spectra: Gaia16aka and Gaia16ajq. We consider possible scenarios to explain the observed outbursts. We exclude that the transient event could be caused by a microlensing event, variable dust absorption or a tidal encounter between a neutron star and a stellar mass black hole in the accretion disk. We consider variability in the accretion flow in the inner part of the disk, or a tidal disruption event of a star $\geq 1 M_{\odot}$ by a rapidly spinning supermassive black hole as the most plausible scenarios. We note that the similarity between the light curves of the three Gaia transients may be a function of the Gaia alerts selection criteria.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

Ram-pressure stripping of a kicked Hill sphere: Prompt electromagnetic emission from the merger of stellar mass black holes in an AGN accretion disk

Accretion disks around supermassive black holes (SMBH) are promising sites for stellar mass black hole (BH) mergers due to mass segregation and merger acceleration by disk gas torques. Here we show that a GW-kick at BH merger causes ram-pressure stripping of gas within the BH Hill sphere. If $R_{H}\geq H$, the disk height, an off-center UV flare at $a_{\rm BH} \sim 10^{3}r_{g}$ emerges within $t_{\rm UV} \sim \rm{O}(2 {\rm days})(a_{\rm BH}/10^{3}r_{g})(M_{\rm SMBH}/10^{8}M_{\odot})(v_{\rm kick}/10^{2}\rm{km/s})$ post-merger and lasts O$(R_{H}/v_{\rm kick}) \sim \rm{O}(5 t_{\rm UV}$). The flare emerges with luminosity O($10^{42}{\rm erg/s})(t_{\rm UV}/2{\rm days})^{-1}(M_{\rm Hill}/1M_{\odot})(v_{\rm kick}/10^{2}{\rm km/s})^{2}$. AGN optical/UV photometry alters and asymmetric broad emission line profiles can develop after weeks. If $R_{H} 50M_{\odot}$.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

LIGO tells us LINERs are not optically thick RIAFs

Low ionization emission line regions (LINERs) are a heterogeneous collection of up to $1/3$ of galactic nuclei in the local Universe. It is unclear whether LINERs are simply the result of low accretion rates onto supermassive black holes or whether they include a large number of optically thick radiatively inefficient but super-Eddington accretion flows (RIAFs). Optically thick RIAFs are typically disks of large scale-height or quasi-spherical gas flows. These should be dense enough to trap and merge a large number of the stellar mass black holes, which we expect to exist in galactic nuclei. Electromagnetic observations of photospheres of accretion flows do not allow us to break model degeneracies. However, gravitational wave observations probe the interior of accretion flows where the merger of stellar mass black holes can be greatly accelerated over the field rate. Here we show that the upper limits on the rate of black hole mergers observed with LIGO demonstrate that most LINERs cannot be optically thick RIAFs.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

Opportunities for Multimessenger Astronomy in the 2020s

Electromagnetic observations of the sky have been the basis for our study of the Universe for millennia, cosmic ray studies are now entering their second century, the first neutrinos from an astrophysical source were identified three decades ago, and gravitational waves were directly detected only four years ago. Detections of these messengers are now common. Astrophysics will undergo a revolution in the 2020s as multimessenger detections become routine. The 8th Astro2020 Thematic Area is Multimessenger Astronomy and Astrophysics, which includes the identification of the sources of gravitational waves, astrophysical and cosmogenic neutrinos, cosmic rays, and gamma-rays, and the coordinated multimessenger and multiwavelength follow-ups. Identifying and characterizing multimessenger sources enables science throughout and beyond astrophysics. Success in the multimessenger era requires: (i) sensitive coverage of the non-electromagnetic messengers, (ii) full coverage of the electromagnetic spectrum, with either fast-response observations or broad and deep high-cadence surveys, and (iii) improved collaboration, communication, and notification platforms.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2018

A Mid-IR Selected Changing-Look Quasar and Physical Scenarios for Abrupt AGN Fading

We report a new changing-look quasar, WISE~J105203.55+151929.5 at $z=0.303$, found by identifying highly mid-IR variable quasars in the WISE/NEOWISE data stream. Compared to multi-epoch mid-IR photometry of a large sample of SDSS-confirmed quasars, WISE J1052+1519 is an extreme photometric outlier, fading by more than a factor of two at $3.4$ and $4.6 μ$m since 2009. Swift target-of-opportunity observations in 2017 show even stronger fading in the soft X-rays compared to the ROSAT detection of this source in 1995, with at least a factor of fifteen decrease. We obtained second-epoch spectroscopy with the Palomar telescope in 2017 which, when compared with the 2006 archival SDSS spectrum, reveals that the broad H$β$ emission has vanished and that the quasar has become significantly redder. The two most likely interpretations for this dramatic change are source fading or obscuration, where the latter is strongly disfavored by the mid-IR data. We discuss various physical scenarios that could cause such changes in the quasar luminosity over this timescale, and favor changes in the innermost regions of the accretion disk that occur on the thermal and heating/cooling front timescales. We discuss possible physical triggers that could cause these changes, and predict the multiwavelength signatures that could distinguish these physical scenarios.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2018

On stellar-mass black hole mergers in AGN disks detectable with LIGO

Black hole mergers detectable with LIGO can occur in active galactic nucleus (AGN) disks. Here we parameterize the merger rates, the mass spectrum and the spin spectrum of black holes (BH) in AGN disks. The predicted merger rate spans $\sim 10^{-4}-10^{4} \rm{Gpc}^{-1} \rm{yr}^{-1}$, so upper limits from LIGO ($<212\rm{Gpc}^{-1}\rm{yr}^{-1}$) already constrain it. The predicted mass spectrum has the form of a broken power-law consisting of a pre-existing BH powerlaw mass spectrum and a harder powerlaw mass spectrum resulting from mergers. The predicted spin spectrum is multi-peaked with the evolution of retrograde spin BH in the gas disk playing a key role. We outline the large uncertainties in each of these LIGO observables for this channel and we discuss ways in which they can be constrained in the future.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2017

The maximum isotropic energy of gamma-ray bursts

The most energetic gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are remarkable sources releasing huge amounts of energy on short timescales. Their prompt emission, which usually lasts few seconds, is so bright that it is visible across the whole observable universe. Studying these extreme events may provide clues on the nature of GRB progenitors and on the physical processes at work in relativistic jets. In this paper, we study the bright end of the isotropic energy distribution of long GRBs. We use two samples of long GRBs with redshift detected by Fermi/GBM or Konus-Wind, two instruments which measure the spectral shape and the energetics of the prompt emission accurately. We focus on GRBs within a range of redshifts z = 1 -- 5, a volume that contains a large number of energetic GRBs, and we propose a simple method to reconstruct the bright end of the GRB energy distribution from the observed one. We find that the GRB energy distribution cannot be described by a simple power law but requires a strong cutoff above $1-3 \times 10^{54}$ erg. We attribute this feature to an intrinsic limit on the energy per unit of solid angle radiated by gamma-ray bursts.

astro-ph.HE↗