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Kalevi Mursula

Publications and source records attributed to Kalevi Mursula.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Photospheric index of geomagnetic activity

Geomagnetic indices quantify the disturbances of the Earth's magnetic field. They form an important space weather and space climate record that tracks solar-terrestrial effects on the Earth. Although geomagnetic activity has its origins in the photospheric magnetic fields, the two have so far not been directly related. We develop a photospheric index of geomagnetic activity (PIGA) that measures the geoeffectiveness of the Sun based on photospheric magnetic field as presented in synoptic magnetograms. We construct the PIGA from synoptic magnetograms of Wilcox Solar Observatory by relating the equatorial and axial dipole components of the photospheric magnetic field to the geomagnetic Kp index by means of linear regression. PIGA captures well the evolution of the geomagnetic activity over the past 50 years at the resolution of solar rotation, having linear correlation of 0.71 with the geomagnetic Kp index. PIGA makes it straightforward to measure the geoeffectiveness of the Sun using the dominant structure of the global solar magnetic field. PIGA can for example be used to study the geoeffectiveness of the Sun using historical simulations or the predicted solar magnetic field. PIGA also allows to use observed geomagnetic activity as an additional constraint for the early magnetic field reconstructions of the solar magnetic field.

astro-ph.SR

Ultra-fast simulations of the solar dipole and open flux

Context. Solar dipole captures important information about the large-scale solar magnetic field. The evolution of the solar magnetic field including the solar dipole can be simulated with a surface flux transport (SFT) model, but these simulations are more extensive than is necessary to produce the evolution of the dipole alone. Aims. We present a dipole flux transport (DFT), matrix method that combines the classic SFT model with dipole vector representation of the solar magnetic field, allowing significantly faster simulations of the solar dipole. Methods. By simulating the evolution of basis vectors of a synoptic map, we constructed propagator matrices that produce the time evolution of the solar magnetic field by means of matrix multiplication. The computational speedup is achieved by compressing the propagator matrices to very small fraction $(< 10^{-4}$) of their original size with a recent vector sum method. Results. Depending on time resolution, the DFT performs 100-1000 times faster than a 4-year SFT simulation of a single active region while producing equivalent results. For multiple source regions, daily propagation matrices are sufficient to produce results that agree within 1\% with the SFT simulation of solar cycle 24, while performing 80 times faster. If the evolution of individual active regions is needed, the DFT performs 50000 times faster than the SFT model. Conclusions. DFT makes solar dipole simulations extremely fast, making it possible to run thousands of simulations in a few minutes with a basic laptop setup. As the magnitude of the dipole vector closely matches with open solar flux (OSF) from the potential field source surface model, the DFT can be used to study the development of OSF in various scenarios extremely efficiently.

astro-ph.SR

Active regions and the large-scale magnetic field of solar cycle 24

Most of the intracyclic variability in the large-scale solar magnetic field comes from the equatorial dipole component of the solar magnetic field. The equatorial dipole component is highly sensitive to the longitude distribution of the active regions. We quantify the effect of individual active regions on the large-scale solar magnetic field of the solar cycle 24. We study the effect of the longitude distribution of active regions on the strength of the large-scale dipole component. We used a surface flux transport (SFT) model to simulate the evolution of individual active regions and quantified their effect on the large-scale magnetic field using the recently developed vector sum method. We took advantage of the longitudinal translational invariance of the SFT model and compared the observed solar cycle 24 to the 10 000 simulations of the solar cycle 24 using randomized longitudinal source locations, but otherwise identical flux emergence. We find that taking into account both the axial and equatorial components of the vector sum characterizing the global solar magnetic field sets better constraints on the parameter space of the SFT model than, for example, using the axial dipole moment alone as an optimization metric. We studied the maximum of cycle 24 and identified the recurrent and localized flux emergence in the southern hemisphere as the main culprit behind the rapid strengthening of the large-scale magnetic field in late 2014. We find that during the declining phase of the solar cycle, the strength of the large-scale magnetic field stayed above the median level of randomized simulations (p < 0.027) for 42 subsequent. This indicates that the longitudinal distribution of active regions is not random and, rather, that it demonstrates a tendency for some regions to emerge at longitudes where their equatorial components reinforce the large-scale equatorial field.

astro-ph.SR

Centennial solar EUV irradiance from ionospheric currents: Varying sunspot-EUV irradiance relation and modified spot-facula ratio

Sunspots depict large variability during the last 100 years, a period called the Modern Maximum (MM). However, other variables are needed to study the long-term evolution, e.g., of weaker fields and different radiative emissions. Recently, the relation between sunspots and the F10.7 and F30 radio fluxes and the MgII index (proxies of EUV irradiance) was found to vary during the last 70 years so that a relative sunspot dominance over EUV in the 1950s-1960s changed to EUV dominance in the 2000s (Mursula et al., 2024). Here we use data from eight long-operating observatories to calculate the yearly range of daily variation of the geomagnetic Y-component, the rY index, for the last 137 years. The rY index correlates very well with the MgII index and the solar F30 radio flux. These three indices have no trend relative to each other. On the other hand, the F10.7 flux has a significant trend with respect to the three co-varying EUV indices (MgII, F30, rY). Therefore, the rY index replaces F10.7 as the best long-term EUV proxy, and extends the MgII index by 90 years. We verify that all the four EUV proxies (rY, MgII, F30, F10.7) have an increasing trend with respect to sunspots during the last 50-70 years. This is valid both for sunspot numbers and group numbers. We find that the relation between rY index and sunspots has a quadratic evolution over the MM. The Sun has more sunspots relative to EUV irradiance during the growth and maximum of the MM, while the opposite is true during its decay. We estimate that the MgII index increases by 24\% of its solar cycle variation with respect to the sunspot number during the last 70 years. Our results indicate a systematic difference in the evolution between sunspots (photosphere) and plages (chromosphere) with long-term solar activity. The implied varying spot-facula ratio has consequences to the stellar evolution of the Sun and Sun-like stars.

astro-ph.SR

Relation between sunspots and solar EUV irradiance changes during the Gleissberg cycle

Sunspots are the standard measure of solar magnetic activity, which are also used to estimate solar spectral irradiance over centennial time scales. However, because of the lack of homogeneous, century-long spectral measurements, the long-term relation of sunspots and spectral irradiance has not been independently validated. Here we aim to study the relation between sunspots and solar extreme ultra-violet (EUV) irradiance during the last 130 years, over the latest Gleissberg cycle, also called the Modern Maximum, when sunspot cycle heights varied by a factor of 2.5. We calculate the daily variation of the geomagnetic declination at six reliable, long-running stations, whose amplitude (or range) can be used as a centennial proxy of solar EUV irradiance. We also compare this geomagnetic proxy to the solar MgII index of EUV irradiance over the 40-year interval of overlap. We find that sunspot activity dominated over EUV irradiance when cycle heights increased in the early 20th century during the growth and maximum of the Modern Maximum, but EUV irradiance dominated over sunspots during the decay of the MM, when cycle heights decreased in the late 1900s. Our results suggest that the spot-facula ratio varies during Gleissberg cycle -type large oscillations of solar/stellar activity. This modifies the estimated stellar evolution of the relation between brightness and chromospheric activity of the Sun and Sun-like stars.

astro-ph.SR

The Solar and Geomagnetic Storms in May 2024: A Flash Data Report

In May 2024, the scientific community observed intense solar eruptions that resulted in a great geomagnetic storm and auroral extension, highlighting the need to document and quantify these events. This study mainly focuses on their quantification. The source active region (AR 13664) evolved from 113 to 2761 millionths of the solar hemisphere between 4 May and 14 May. AR 13664's magnetic free energy surpassed 10^33 erg on 7 May, triggering 12 X-class flares on 8 -- 15 May. Multiple interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) were produced from this AR, accelerating solar energetic particles toward Earth. According to satellite and interplanetary scintillation data, at least 4 ICMEs erupted from 13664 eventually overcoming each other and combining. The shock arrival at 17:05 UT on 10 May significantly compressed the magnetosphere down to ~ 5.04 RE, and triggered a deep Forbush Decrease. GOES satellite data and ground-based neutron monitors confirmed a ground-level enhancement from 2 UT to 10 UT on 11 May 2024. The ICMEs induced exceptional geomagnetic storms, peaking at a Dst index of -412 nT at 2 UT on 11 May, marking the sixth-largest storm since 1957. The AE and AL indices showed great auroral extensions that located the AE/AL stations into the polar cap. We gathered auroral records at that time and reconstructed the equatorward boundary of the visual auroral oval to 29.8° invariant latitude. We compared naked-eye and camera auroral visibility, providing critical caveats on their difference. We also confirmed global enhancements of storm-enhanced density of the ionosphere.

astro-ph.SR

Reconstructing solar magnetic fields from historical observations X. Effect of magnetic field inclination and boundary structure on AIA 1600 Å emission

The relation between the intensity of chromospheric emissions and the photospheric magnetic field strength has been examined in several studies, but the effect of the magnetic field inclination on chromospheric emissions remains almost unexplored. We study how the inclination of the photospheric magnetic field, as measured by the full 3D magnetic vector from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), affects the relationship between the magnetic field strength and the far-ultraviolet emission at around 1600 Å observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). We also study how these parameters change spatially close to the active region perimeter. We analyzed the mutual dependence of 1168 co-temporal AIA and HMI observations from 2014 to 2017. We focused on magnetically active regions outside sunspots (e.g., plages and network) close to the solar disk center. We studied how the AIA and HMI parameters change with distance from the active region perimeter. The AIA 1600 emission typically decreases with increasing (more horizontal) inclination. For all inclinations, AIA 1600 emission increases with increasing magnetic field strength until saturating at some peak intensity, which depends on the cosine of the inclination, with horizontal regions saturating at lower intensities. In addition, we find that activity clusters have a narrow boundary (< 2 arcseconds) in which the AIA 1600 intensity, magnetic field strength, and inclination distributions and relations differ significantly from those in the inner layers. This study demonstrates the significant effect that magnetic field inclination and activity cluster border regions have on chromospheric emissions. Although the observed effects are likely reduced in low-resolution observations where different regions are averaged together, a detailed study is needed to examine the emission--magnetic field relation at different resolutions.

astro-ph.SR

Straight outta photosphere: Open solar flux without coronal modeling

The open solar flux, that is, the total magnetic flux escaping the Sun, is one of the most important parameters connecting solar activity to the Earth. The open solar flux is commonly estimated from photospheric magnetic field measurements by making model assumptions about the solar corona. However, the question in which way the open solar flux is directly related to the distribution of the photospheric magnetic field is still partly unknown. We aim to reconstruct the open solar flux directly from the photospheric magnetic fields without making any assumptions about the corona and without using coronal hole observations, for instance. We modified an earlier vector sum method by taking magnetic field polarities into account and applied the method to the synoptic magnetograms of six instruments to determine the open solar flux from solar cycles 21-24. Results. The modified vector sum method produces a vector of the global solar magnetic field whose magnitude closely matches the open solar flux from the potential field source surface (PFSS) model both by the absolute scale and the overall time evolution for each of the six magnetograms. The latitude of this vector follows the Hale cycle by always pointing toward the dominantly positive-polarity hemisphere, and its longitude coincides with the location of the main coronal holes of the McIntosh Archive. We find multi-year periods during which the longitude of the vector slowly drifts or stays rather stationary in the Carrington frame. These periods are punctuated by times when the longitude moves rapidly in the Carrington frame. By comparing the magnitude of this vector to the open solar flux calculated from the PFSS model with different source surface heights, we find that the best match is produced with a source surface height $R_{ss} = 2.4 - 2.5R_\odot$.

astro-ph.SR

Hale cycle in solar hemispheric radio flux and sunspots: Evidence for a northward shifted relic field

Solar and heliospheric parameters can depict notable differences between the northern and southern hemisphere. Although hemispheric asymmetries of some heliospheric parameters vary systematically with Hale cycle, this is not common for solar parameters. Also, no physical mechanism exists which can explain systematic hemispheric asymmetries. We use a novel method of high heliolatitudes to increase the fraction of one hemisphere in solar 10.7cm radio fluxes and sunspot numbers. We calculate sets of hemispheric high-latitude radio fluxes and sunspot numbers with increasing heliographic latitude during the last 75 years. We also normalise these fluxes by yearly means in order to study their continuous variation. We find that cycle maximum radio fluxes and sunspot numbers in each odd cycle (19, 21, 23) are larger at northern high latitudes, while in all even cycles (18, 20, 22 24) they are larger at southern latitudes. This alternation indicates a new form of Hale cycle variation in solar activity. Hemispheric differences at cycle maxima are 15% for radio flux and 23% for sunspot numbers. The difference is largest during cycle 19 and smallest in cycle 24. Continuous fluxes depict a Hale cycle in both hemispheres, with an opposite phase and amplitude of 5% in north and 4% in south. Hemispheric Hale cycle can be explained if there is a northward directed relic magnetic field, which is shifted northward. In odd cycles, the northern hemisphere is enhanced more than the southern hemisphere and, in even cycles, the northern hemisphere is reduced more than the southern hemisphere. The decrease of asymmetry during the 7 cycles can be explained if the relic shift oscillates at the 210-year Suess/deVries period. Gleissberg cycle consists of one off-equator excursion of the relic. Relic field in the Sun also offers a possibility for century-scale forecasting of solar activity.

astro-ph.SR

Magnetic storms during the space age: Occurrence and relation to varying solar activity

We study the occurrence of magnetic storms in space age (1957-2021) using Dst and Dxt indices. We find 2526/2743 magnetic storms in the Dxt/Dst index, out of which 45% are weak, 40% moderate, 12% intense and 3% major storms. Occurrence of storms in space age follows the slow decrease of sunspot activity and the related change in solar magnetic structure. We quantify the sunspot - CME storm relation in the five cycles of space age. We explain how the varying solar activity changes the structure of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), and how this affects the HSS/CIR storms. Space age started with a record number of storms in 1957-1960, with roughly one storm per week. Solar polar fields attained their maximum in cycle 22, which led to an exceptionally thin HCS, and a space age record of large HSS/CIR storms in 1990s. In the minimum of cycle 23, for the only time in space age, CME storm occurrence reduced below that predicted by sunspots. Weak sunspot activity since cycle 23 has weakened solar polar fields and widened the HCS, which has decreased the occurrence of large and moderate HSS/CIR storms. Because of a wide HCS, the Earth has spent 50% of its time in slow solar wind since cycle 23. The wide HCS has also made large and moderate HSS/CIR storms occur in the early declining phase in recent cycles, while in the more active cycles 20-22 they occurred in the late declining phase.

astro-ph.SR

Reconstructing solar magnetic fields from historical observations VIII. AIA 1600 Å contrast as a proxy of solar magnetic fields

The bright regions in the solar chromosphere and temperature minimum have a good spatial correspondence with regions of intense photospheric magnetic field. Their observation started more than a hundred years ago with the invention of the spectroheliograph. While the historical spectroheliograms are essential for studying the long-term variability of the Sun, the modern satellite-borne observations can help us reveal the nature of chromospheric brightenings in previously unattainable detail. Our aim is to improve the understanding of the relation between magnetic fields and radiative structures by studying modern seeing-free observations of far-ultraviolet (FUV) radiation around 1600 Å and photospheric magnetic fields. We used Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) observations of photospheric magnetic fields and Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) observations of FUV contrast around 1600 Å. We developed a robust method to find contrast thresholds defining bright and dark AIA 1600 Å pixels, and we combine them to bright and dark clusters. We investigate the relation of magnetic fields and AIA 1600 Å radiation in bright and dark clusters. We find that the percentage of bright pixels entirely explains the observed variability of 1600 Å emission. We developed a multilinear regression model based on the percentages of bright and dark pixels, which can reliably predict the magnitude of the disk-averaged unsigned magnetic field. We find that bright and dark clusters closely correspond respectively to the populations of moderate (B > 55 G) and strong (B > 1365 G) magnetic field HMI clusters. The largest bright clusters have a constant mean unsigned magnetic field, as found previously for Ca II K plages. However, the magnetic field strength of bright clusters is 254.7$\pm$0.1 G, which is roughly 100 G larger than found earlier for Ca II K plages.

astro-ph.SR

On a limitation of Zeeman polarimetry and imperfect instrumentation in representing solar magnetic fields with weaker polarization signal

Full disk vector magnetic fields are used widely for developing better understanding of large-scale structure, morphology, and patterns of the solar magnetic field. The data are also important for modeling various solar phenomena. However, observations of vector magnetic fields have one important limitation that may affect the determination of the true magnetic field orientation. This limitation stems from our ability to interpret the differing character of the Zeeman polarization signals which arise from the photospheric line-of-sight vs. the transverse components of the solar vector magnetic field, and is likely exacerbated by unresolved structure (non-unity fill fraction) as well as the disambiguation of the 180$^\circ$ degeneracy in the transverse-field azimuth. Here we provide a description of this phenomenon, and discuss issues, which require additional investigation.

astro-ph.SR

Trends of continental, zonal and seasonal land temperatures in the 20th century

We study the evolution of continental, zonal and seasonal land temperature anomalies especially in the early 20th century warming (ETCW) period, using principal component analysis (PCA) and reverse arrangement trend analysis. ETCW is significant in all other continents except for Oceania. Warming in South America is significant from the ETCW onwards, but significant recent warming started in North America and Europe only around 1990. The zonal and seasonal PC2s are both correlated with AMO index, but zonal PC3 is related to Southern oscillation index (SOI) and seasonal PC3 best correlated with wintertime El Nino (NINO34 DJF index). In the southern hemisphere, the recent warming starts first closest to the equator in the 1950s and latest in the southernmost zone in the late 1970s. In the two lowest northern zones (EQ-N24, N24-N44) the warming is significant since the ETCW, and increased warming starts in 1970s, but in two northernmost zones (N44-N64, N64-N90) the cooling after the ETCW delays the start of recent warming until around 1990. All seasons of the northern hemisphere but no season in the southern hemisphere depict a significant ETCW. All the three PCA have almost common PC1 component for the analyzes 1910-2017, i.e., gradual increase of temperature until 1940s, period of declining towards the end of 1950s, a flat phase until the second half of 1970s and steep rise after that. However, the continental PC1 explains only 75.2 % of the variation of the data, while zonal and seasonal PC1s explain 81.7 % and 87.6 % of the corresponding data, respectively.

physics.ao-ph

Comparison of the shape and temporal evolution of even and odd solar cycles

Results. The PCA confirms the existence of the Gnevyshev gap (GG) for solar cycles at about 40% from the start of the cycle. The temporal evolution of sunspot area data for even cycles shows that the GG exists at least at the 95% confidence level for all sizes of sunspots. On the other hand, the GG is shorter and statistically insignificant for the odd cycles of aerial sunspot data. Furthermore, the analysis of sunspot area sizes for even and odd cycles of SC12-SC23 shows that the greatest difference is at 4.2-4.6 years, where even cycles have a far smaller total area than odd cycles. The average area of the individual sunspots of even cycles is also smaller in this interval. The statistical analysis of the temporal evolution shows that northern sunspot groups maximise earlier than southern groups for even cycles, but are concurrent for odd cycles. Furthermore, the temporal distributions of odd cycles are slightly more leptokurtic than distributions of even cycles. The skewnesses are 0.37 and 0.49 and the kurtoses 2.79 and 2.94 for even and odd cycles, respectively. The correlation coefficient between skewness and kurtosis for even cycles is 0.69, and for odd cycles, it is 0.90. Conclusions. The separate PCAs for even and odd sunspot cycles show that odd cycles are more inhomogeneous than even cycles, especially in GSN data. Even cycles, however, have two anomalous cycles: SC4 and SC6. According to the analysis of the sunspot area size data, the GG is more distinct in even than odd cycles. We also present another Waldmeier-type rule, that is, we find a correlation between skewness and kurtosis of the sunspot group cycles.

astro-ph.SR

New Homogeneous Dataset of Solar EUV synoptic maps from SOHO/EIT and SDO/AIA

Synoptic maps of solar EUV intensities have been constructed for many decades in order to display the distribution of the different EUV emissions across the solar surface, with each map representing one Carrington rotation (i.e., one rotation of the Sun). This paper presents a new solar EUV synoptic map dataset based on full-disk images from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (SOHO/EIT) and Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA). In order to remove the significant and complicated drift of EIT and AIA EUV intensities due to sensor degradation, we construct the synoptic maps in standardized intensity scale. We describe a method of homogenizing the SOHO/EIT maps with SDO/AIA maps by transforming the EIT intensity histograms to AIA level. The new maps cover the years from 1996 to 2018 with 307 SOHO/EIT and 116 SDO/AIA synoptic maps, respectively. These maps provide a systematic and homogenous view of the entire solar surface in four EUV wavelengths, and are well suited, e.g., for studying long-term coronal hole evolution.

astro-ph.SR

A new signal of the solar magnetic cycle: Opposite shifts of weak magnetic field distributions in the two hemispheres

We study the asymmetric distribution of weak photospheric magnetic field values in the two hemispheres separately using synoptic maps from SDO/HMI, SOLIS/VSM and WSO during solar cycles 21-24. We calculate the weak-field asymmetry (shift) by fitting the distributions of weak-field values to a shifted Gaussian. Hemispheric shifts derived from the three data sets agree very well, and increase systematically when reducing the spatial resolution of the map. Shifts of the northern and southern hemisphere are typically opposite to each other. Shifts follow the evolution of the trailing flux and have a strong solar cycle variation with maxima in the early to mid-declining phase of the solar cycle. The sign of the hemispheric weak-field shift is always the same as the polarity of the polar field in the respective hemisphere and solar cycle. We also find that shifts in the south are systematically larger in absolute value than in the north.

astro-ph.SR

Reconstructing solar magnetic fields from historical observations V. Sunspot magnetic field measurements at Mount Wilson Observatory

Context. Systematic observations of magnetic field strength and polarity in sunspots began at Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO), USA in early 1917. Except for a few brief interruptions, this historical dataset continues till present. Aims. The sunspot field strength and polarity observations are critical in our project of reconstructing the solar magnetic field over the last hundred years. Here we provide a detailed description of the newly digitized dataset of drawings of sunspot magnetic field observations. Methods. The digitization of MWO drawings is based on a software package develope d by us. It includes a semi-automatic selection of solar limbs and other features of the drawing, and a manual entry of the time of observations, the measured field strength and other notes hand-written on each drawing. The data are preserved in a MySQL database. Results. We provide a brief history of the project and describe the results from digitizing this historical dataset. We also provide a summary of the final dataset, and describe its known limitations. Finally, we compare the sunspot magnetic field measurements with other instruments, and demonstrate that, if needed, the dataset could be continued using modern observations such as, for example, Vector Stokes Magnetograph (VSM) on Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) platform.

astro-ph.SR

Structure and evolution of the photospheric magnetic field in 2010 - 2017: comparison of SOLIS/VSM vector field and $B_{LOS}$ potential field

The line-of-sight (LOS) component of the large-scale photospheric magnetic field has been observed since the 1950s, but the daily full-disk observations of the full vector magnetic field started only in 2010 using the SOLIS Vector Stokes Magnetograph (VSM) and the SDO helioseismic and magnetic imager (HMI). Traditionally, potential field extrapolations are based on the assumption that the magnetic field in the photosphere is approximately radial. The validity of this assumption has not been tested yet. We investigate here the structure and evolution of the three components of the solar large-scale magnetic field in 2010 - 2017, covering the ascending to mid-declining phase of solar cycle 24, using SOLIS/VSM vector synoptic maps of the photospheric magnetic field. We compare the observed VSM vector magnetic field to the potential vector field derived using the VSM LOS magnetic field observations as an input. The new vector field data allow us to derive the meridional inclination and the azimuth angle of the magnetic field and to investigate their solar cycle evolution and latitudinal profile of these quantities. SOLIS/VSM vector data show that the photospheric magnetic field is in general fairly non-radial. In the meridional plane the field is inclined toward the equator, reflecting the dipolar structure of the solar magnetic field. Rotationally averaged meridional inclination does not have significant solar cycle variation. While the vector radial component $B_r$ and the potential radial component $B_r^{PFSS}$ are fairly similar, the meridional and zonal components do not agree very well. We find that SOLIS/VSM vector observations are noisy at high latitudes and suffer from the vantage point effect more than LOS observations. This is due to different noise properties in the LOS and transverse components of the magnetic field, which needs to be addressed in future studies.

physics.space-ph