arXiv subjects

Kalevi Mursula

Publications and source records attributed to Kalevi Mursula.

33 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Asymmetric distribution of weak photospheric magnetic field values

We use the synoptic maps of the photospheric magnetic field observed at Wilcox Solar Observatory, Mount Wilson Observatory, Kitt Peak, SOHO/MDI, SOLIS/VSM, and SDO/HMI to study the distribution of weak photospheric magnetic field values in 1974-2018. We fit the histogram distribution of weak field values for each synoptic map of the six data-sets separately with a parametrized Gaussian function in order to calculate the possible shift (to be called here the weak-field asymmetry) of the maximum of the Gaussian distribution from zero. We estimate the statistical significance of the weak-field asymmetry for each rotation. We also calculate several versions of lower-resolution synoptic maps from the high-resolution maps and calculate their rotational weak-field asymmetries. We find that the weak-field asymmetries increase with decreasing map resolution. A very large fraction of weak-field asymmetries are statistically significant, with the fraction of significant weak-field asymmetries increasing with decreasing resolution. Significant weak-field asymmetries of high- and low-resolution maps mainly occur at the same times and have the same sign. Weak-field asymmetries for the different data-sets and resolutions vary quite similarly in time, and their mutual correlations are very high, especially for low-resolution maps. These results give strong evidence for weak-field asymmetries reflecting a real feature of weak field values, which is best seen in medium- and low-resolution synoptic maps and is most likely related to the supergranulation scale of the photospheric field.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Explicit IMF $B_y$-effect maximizes at subauroral latitudes (Dedicated to the memory of Eigil Friis-Christensen)

The most important parameter in the coupling between solar wind and geomagnetic activity is the $B_z$-component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). However, recent studies have shown that IMF $B_y$ is an additional, independent driver of geomagnetic activity. We use here local geomagnetic indices from a large network of magnetic stations to study how IMF $B_y$ affects geomagnetic activity at different latitudes for all solar wind and, separately during coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We show that geomagnetic activity, for all solar wind, is 20% stronger for $B_y>0$ than for $B_y<0$ at subauroral latitudes of about $60^{\circ}$ corrected geomagnetic (CGM) latitude. During CMEs, the $B_y$-effect is larger, about 40%, at slightly lower latitudes of about $57^{\circ}$ (CGM) latitude. These results highlight the importance of the IMF $B_y$-component for space weather at different latitudes and must be taken into account in space weather modeling.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

Historical astronomical data: urgent need for preservation, digitization enabling scientific exploration

Over the past decades and even centuries, the astronomical community has accumulated a signif-icant heritage of recorded observations of a great many astronomical objects. Those records con-tain irreplaceable information about long-term evolutionary and non-evolutionary changes in our Universe, and their preservation and digitization is vital. Unfortunately, most of those data risk becoming degraded and thence totally lost. We hereby call upon the astronomical community and US funding agencies to recognize the gravity of the situation, and to commit to an interna-tional preservation and digitization efforts through comprehensive long-term planning supported by adequate resources, prioritizing where the expected scientific gains, vulnerability of the origi-nals and availability of relevant infrastructure so dictates. The importance and urgency of this issue has been recognized recently by General Assembly XXX of the International Astronomical Union (IAU) in its Resolution B3: "on preservation, digitization and scientific exploration of his-torical astronomical data". We outline the rationale of this promotion, provide examples of new science through successful recovery efforts, and review the potential losses to science if nothing it done.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2018

Principal component analysis of sunspot cycle shape

We study the shape of sunspot cycles using the Wolf sunspot numbers and group sunspot numbers of solar cycles 1-23. We determine the most typical "model" cycles and the most asymmetric cycles, and test the validity of the two Waldmeier rules: the anti-correlation between cycle height and the length of its ascending phase (rule 1), and between cycle height and the length of the preceding cycle (rule 2). We applied the principal component analysis to sunspot cycles and studied the first two components, which describe the average cycle shape and cycle asymmetry, respectively. We also calculated their autocorrelation in order to study their recurrence properties. The best model cycles for Wolf numbers are SC12, SC14, and SC16, the successive even cycles from a long period of rather low overall solar activity. We find that the model cycles in eight different analyses using both sunspot series are almost exclusively even cycles. Correspondingly, the most asymmetric cycles are odd cycles. We find that both Waldmeier rules are valid for the whole Wolf number series of 23 cycles. Waldmeier rule 2 is also valid for group number series although its significance is weaker. Waldmeier rule 1 is not significant for the original group number series, but becomes significant for the proxy series. For separate centuries, Waldmeier rules are not always valid for Wolf numbers and very rarely for group numbers. Our results also offer a new interpretation for the Gnevyshev gap. In addition to being a local depression of solar activity, the Gnevyshev gap is a separatrix that divides cycles into two parts whose relative intensities determine the cycle asymmetry. The Gnevyshev gap is the zero value time of PC2, located approximately 33-42% into the cycle after its start.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Tilt of sunspot bipoles in Solar Cycles 15 to 24

We use recently digitized sunspot drawings from Mount Wilson Observatory to investigate the latitudinal dependence of tilt angles of active regions and its change with solar cycle. The drawings cover the period from 1917 to present and contain information about polarity and strength of magnetic field in sunspots. We identify clusters of sunspots of same polarity, and used these clusters to form ``bipole pairs''. The orientation of these bipole pairs was used to measure their tilts. We find that the latitudinal profile of tilts does not monotonically increase with latitude as most previous studies assumed, but instead, it shows a clear maximum at about 25--30 degree latitudes. Functional dependence of tilt ($γ$) on latitude ($φ$) was found to be $γ= (0.20\pm 0.08) \sin (2.80 φ) + (-0.00\pm 0.06)$. We also find that latitudinal dependence of tilts varies from one solar cycle to another, but larger tilts do not seem to result in stronger solar cycles. Finally, we find the presence of a systematic offset in tilt of active regions (non-zero tilts at the equator), with odd cycles exhibiting negative offset and even cycles showing the positive offset.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Explicit IMF $B_y$-dependence in high-latitude geomagnetic activity

The interaction of the solar wind with the Earth's magnetic field produces geomagnetic activity, which is critically dependent on the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Most solar wind coupling functions quantify this dependence on the IMF orientation with the so-called IMF clock angle in a way, which is symmetric with respect to the sign of the $B_y$ component. However, recent studies have suggested that the sign of $B_y$ is an additional, independent driver of high-latitude geomagnetic activity, leading to higher (weaker) geomagnetic activity in Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter for $B_y\! >\! 0$ ($B_y\! <\! 0$). In this paper we quantify the size of this explicit $B_y$-effect with respect to the solar wind coupling function, both for Northern and Southern high-latitude geomagnetic activity. We show that high-latitude geomagnetic activity is significantly (by about 40-50\%) suppressed for $B_y\!<\!0$ in NH winter and for $B_y\!>\!0$ in SH winter. When averaged over all months, high-latitude geomagnetic activity in NH is about 12\% weaker for $B_y\!<\!0$ than for $B_y\!>\!0$. The $B_y$-effect affects the westward electrojet strongly but hardly at all the eastward electrojet. We also show that the suppression of the westward electrojet in NH during $B_y\!<\!0$ maximizes when the Earth's dipole axis points towards the night sector, i.e., when the auroral region is maximally in darkness.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2017

Automated identification of coronal holes from synoptic EUV maps

Coronal holes (CH) are regions of open magnetic field lines in the solar corona and the source of fast solar wind. Understanding the evolution of coronal holes is critical for solar magnetism as well as for accurate space weather forecasts. We study here the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) synoptic maps at three wavelengths (195A/193A, 171A and 304A) measured by Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (SOHO/EIT) and Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) instruments. The two datasets are first homogenized by scaling the SDO/AIA data to the SOHO/EIT level by means of histogram equalization. We then develop a novel automated method to identify CHs from these homogenized maps by determining the intensity threshold of CH regions separately for each synoptic map. This is done by identifying the best location and size of an image segment, which optimally contains portions of coronal holes and the surrounding quiet Sun allowing us to detect the momentary intensity threshold. Our method is thus able to adjust itself to the changing scale size of coronal holes and to temporally varying intensities. To make full use of the information in the three wavelengths we construct, a composite CH distribution, which is more robust than distributions based on one wavelength. Using the composite CH dataset we discuss the temporal evolution of CHs during the solar cycles 23 and 24.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2017

Principal component analysis of geomagnetic activity: New information on solar wind

We use the principal component analysis (PCA) to study geomagnetic activity at annual resolution using a network of 26 magnetic stations in 1966-2015, and an extended network of 40 stations in 1980-2015. The first principal component (PC1) describes the long-term evolution of global geomagnetic activity, and has an excellent correlation with indices like the Kp/Ap index. The two networks give identical results for PC1. The second principal component (PC2) is highly correlated with the annual percentage of high-speed streams (HSS). The extended network has a slightly higher sensitivity to HSSs. We verify the non-trivial latitudinal distribution of the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF2). We find that the amplitude of the 22-year variation of geomagnetic activity has a closely similar latitudinal distribution as EOF2. This verifies that the 22-year variation of geomagnetic activity is related to HSSs. The most likely cause is the Russell-McPherron mechanism.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2017

Centennial evolution of monthly solar wind speeds: Fastest monthly solar wind speeds from long-duration coronal holes

High speed solar wind streams (HSSs) are very efficient drivers of geomagnetic activity at high latitudes. In this paper we use a recently developed $Δ{H}$ parameter of geomagnetic activity, calculated from the night-side hourly magnetic field measurements of the Sodankylä observatory, as a proxy for solar wind (SW) speed at monthly time resolution in 1914-2014 (solar cycles 15-24). The seasonal variation in the relation between monthly $Δ{H}$ and solar wind speed is taken into account by calculating separate regressions between $Δ{H}$ and SW speed for each month. Thereby, we obtain a homogeneous series of proxy values for monthly solar wind speed for the last 100 years. We find that the strongest HSS-active months of each solar cycle occur in the declining phase, in years 1919, 1930, 1941, 1952, 1959, 1973, 1982, 1994 and 2003. Practically all these years are the same or adjacent to the years of annual maximum solar wind speeds. This implies that the most persistent coronal holes, lasting for several solar rotations and leading to the highest annual SW speeds, are also the sources of the highest monthly SW speeds. Accordingly, during the last 100 years, there were no coronal holes of short duration (of about one solar rotation) that would produce faster monthly (or solar rotation) averaged solar wind than the most long-living coronal holes in each solar cycle produce.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2016

Seasonal solar wind speeds for the last 100 years: Unique coronal hole structures during the peak and demise of the Grand Modern Maximum

Solar coronal holes are sources of high-speed solar wind streams, which cause persistent geomagnetic activity especially at high latitudes. Here we estimate seasonal solar wind speeds at 1 AU for the last 100 years using high-latitude geomagnetic measurements and show that they give information on the long-term evolution of important structures of the solar large-scale magnetic field, such as persistent coronal holes. We find that the centennial evolution of solar wind speed at 1 AU is different for equinoxes and solstices, reflecting differences in the evolution of polar coronal hole extensions and isolated low-latitude coronal holes. Equinoctial solar wind speeds had their centennial maximum in 1952, during the declining phase of solar cycle 18, verifying that polar coronal holes had exceptionally persistent extensions just before the peak of the Grand Modern Maximum of solar activity. On the other hand, solstice speeds had their centennial maximum during the declining phase of solar cycle 23 due to large low-latitude coronal holes. A similar configuration of seasonal speeds as in cycle 23 was not found earlier, not even during the less active cycles of early 20th century. Therefore the exceptional occurrence of persistent, isolated low-latitude coronal holes in cycle 23 is not related to the absolute level of sunspot activity but, most likely, to the demise of the Grand Modern Maximum.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2015

The Maunder minimum (1645--1715) was indeed a Grand minimum: A reassessment of multiple datasets

Aims: Although the time of the Maunder minimum (1645--1715) is widely known as a period of extremely low solar activity, claims are still debated that solar activity during that period might still have been moderate, even higher than the current solar cycle #24. We have revisited all the existing pieces of evidence and datasets, both direct and indirect, to assess the level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Methods: We discuss the East Asian naked-eye sunspot observations, the telescopic solar observations, the fraction of sunspot active days, the latitudinal extent of sunspot positions, auroral sightings at high latitudes, cosmogenic radionuclide data as well as solar eclipse observations for that period. We also consider peculiar features of the Sun (very strong hemispheric asymmetry of sunspot location, unusual differential rotation and the lack of the K-corona) that imply a special mode of solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Results: The level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum is reassessed on the basis of all available data sets. Conclusions: We conclude that solar activity was indeed at an exceptionally low level during the Maunder minimum. Although the exact level is still unclear, it was definitely below that during the Dalton minimum around 1800 and significantly below that of the current solar cycle #24. Claims of a moderate-to-high level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum are rejected at a high confidence level.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

Occurrence of high-speed solar wind streams over the Grand Modern Maximum

In the declining phase of the solar cycle, when the new-polarity fields of the solar poles are strengthened by the transport of same-signed magnetic flux from lower latitudes, the polar coronal holes expand and form non-axisymmetric extensions toward the solar equator. These extensions enhance the occurrence of high-speed solar wind streams (HSS) and related co-rotating interaction regions in the low-latitude heliosphere, and cause moderate, recurrent geomagnetic activity in the near-Earth space. Here, using a novel definition of geomagnetic activity at high (polar cap) latitudes and the longest record of magnetic observations at a polar cap station, we calculate the annually averaged solar wind speeds as proxies for the effective annual occurrence of HSS over the whole Grand Modern Maximum (GMM) from 1920s onwards. We find that a period of high annual speeds (frequent occurrence of HSS) occurs in the declining phase of each solar cycle 16-23. For most cycles the HSS activity clearly maximizes during one year, suggesting that typically only one strong activation leading to a coronal hole extension is responsible for the HSS maximum. We find that the most persistent HSS activity occurred in the declining phase of solar cycle 18. This suggests that cycle 19, which marks the sunspot maximum period of the GMM, was preceded by exceptionally strong polar fields during the previous sunspot minimum. This gives interesting support for the validity of solar dynamo theory during this dramatic period of solar magnetism.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

A new method to estimate annual solar wind parameters and contributions of different solar wind structures to geomagnetic activity

In this paper, we study two sets of local geomagnetic indices from 26 stations using the principal component (PC) and the independent component (IC) analysis methods. We demonstrate that the annually averaged indices can be accurately represented as linear combinations of two first components with weights systematically depending on latitude. We show that the annual contributions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and high speed streams (HSSs) to geomagnetic activity are highly correlated with the first and second IC. The first and second ICs are also found to be very highly correlated with the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and the solar wind speed, respectively, because solar wind speed is the most important parameter driving geomagnetic activity during HSSs while IMF strength dominates during CMEs. These results help in better understanding the long-term driving of geomagnetic activity and in gaining information about the long-term evolution of solar wind parameters and the different solar wind structures.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2009

A solar cycle lost in 1793--1800: Early sunspot observations resolve the old mystery

Because of the lack of reliable sunspot observation, the quality of sunspot number series is poor in the late 18th century, leading to the abnormally long solar cycle (1784--1799) before the Dalton minimum. Using the newly recovered solar drawings by the 18--19th century observers Staudacher and Hamilton, we construct the solar butterfly diagram, i.e. the latitudinal distribution of sunspots in the 1790's. The sudden, systematic occurrence of sunspots at high solar latitudes in 1793--1796 unambiguously shows that a new cycle started in 1793, which was lost in traditional Wolf's sunspot series. This finally confirms the existence of the lost cycle that has been proposed earlier, thus resolving an old mystery. This letter brings the attention of the scientific community to the need of revising the sunspot series in the 18th century. The presence of a new short, asymmetric cycle implies changes and constraints to sunspot cycle statistics, solar activity predictions, solar dynamo theories as well as for solar-terrestrial relations.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2003

A Millennium Scale Sunspot Number Reconstruction: Evidence For an Unusually Active Sun Since the 1940's

The extension of the sunspot number series backward in time is of considerable interest for dynamo theory, solar, stellar, and climate research. We have used records of the Be-10 concentration in polar ice to reconstruct the average sunspot activity level for the period between the year 850 to the pr esent. Our method uses physical models for processes connecting the Be-10 concentration with the sunspot number. The reconstruction shows reliably that the period of high solar activity during the last 60 years is unique throughout the past 1150 years. This nearly triples the time interval for which such a statement could be made previously

astro-ph↗