arXiv subjects

Karmen Martinić

Publications and source records attributed to Karmen Martinić.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Early Evolution of Earth-Directed Coronal Mass Ejections in the Vicinity of Coronal Holes

We investigate the deflection and rotation behavior of 49 Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) spanning the period from 2010 to 2020 aiming to understand the potential influence of coronal holes (CHs) on their trajectories. We perform the GCS reconstruction in multiple time steps and we consider the difference in the longitude, latitude, and inclination between the first and last GCS reconstructions as possible signatures of deflection/rotation. Furthermore, we examine the presence of nearby CHs at the time of eruption and employ the Collection of Analysis Tools for Coronal Holes (CATCH) to estimate relevant CH parameters. To assess the potential influence of CHs on the deflection and rotation of CMEs, we calculate the Coronal Hole Influence Parameter (CHIP) for each event and analyse its relationship with their trajectories. A statistically significant difference is observed between CHIP force and the overall change in a CME's direction in the lower corona. The overall change in a CME's direction accounts cumulatively for the change in latitude, longitude, and rotation. This suggests that the CHIP force in the low corona has a significant influence on the overall change in the direction of Earth-directed CMEs. However, as the CME evolves outward, the CHIP force becomes less effective in causing deflection or rotation at greater distances. Additionally, we observe a negative correlation between the deflection rate of the CMEs and their velocity, suggesting that higher velocities are associated with lower deflection rates. Hence, the velocity of a CME, along with the magnetic-field from CHs, appears to play a significant role in the deflection of CMEs.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Probing coronal mass ejections inclination effects with EUHFORIA

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are complex magnetized plasma structures in which the magnetic field spirals around a central axis, forming what is known as a flux rope (FR). The central FR axis can be oriented at any angle to the ecliptic. Throughout its journey, a CME will encounter interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind which are neither homogeneous nor isotropic. Consequently, CMEs with different orientations will encounter different ambient medium conditions and, thus, the interaction of a CME with its surrounding environment will vary depending on the orientation of its FR axis, among other factors. This study aims to understand the effect of inclination on CME propagation. We performed simulations with the EUHFORIA 3D magnetohydrodynamic model. This study focuses on two CMEs modelled as spheromaks with nearly identical properties, differing only by their inclination. We show the effects of CME orientation on sheath evolution, MHD drag, and non-radial flows by analyzing the model data from a swarm of 81 virtual spacecraft scattered across the inner heliospheric. We have found that the sheath duration increases with radial distance from the Sun and that the rate of increase is greater on the flanks of the CME. Non-radial flows within the studied sheath region appear larger outside the ecliptic plane, indicating a "sliding" of the IMF in the out-of ecliptic plane. We found that the calculated drag parameter does not remain constant with radial distance and that the inclination dependence of the drag parameter can not be resolved with our numerical setup.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Probabilistic Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) Evaluation for Heliospheric Propagation of CMEs

The Drag-based Model (DBM) is a 2D analytical model for heliospheric propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in ecliptic plane predicting the CME arrival time and speed at Earth or any other given target in the solar system. It is based on the equation of motion and depends on initial CME parameters, background solar wind speed, $w$ and the drag parameter $γ$. A very short computational time of DBM ($<$ 0.01s) allowed us to develop the Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) that takes into account the variability of model input parameters by making an ensemble of n different input parameters to calculate the distribution and significance of the DBM results. Thus the DBEM is able to calculate the most likely CME arrival times and speeds, quantify the prediction uncertainties and determine the confidence intervals. A new DBEMv3 version is described in detail and evaluated for the first time determing the DBEMv3 performance and errors by using various CME-ICME lists as well as it is compared with previous DBEM versions. The analysis to find the optimal drag parameter $γ$ and ambient solar wind speed $w$ showed that somewhat higher values ($γ\approx 0.3 \times 10^{-7}$ km$^{-1}$, $w \approx$ 425 km\,s$^{-1}$) for both of these DBEM input parameters should be used for the evaluation compared to the previously employed ones. Based on the evaluation performed for 146 CME-ICME pairs, the DBEMv3 performance with mean error (ME) of -11.3 h, mean absolute error (MAE) of 17.3 h was obtained. There is a clear bias towards the negative prediction errors where the fast CMEs are predicted to arrive too early, probably due to the model physical limitations and input errors (e.g. CME launch speed).

astro-ph.SR↗