arXiv subjects

Kevin B. Stevenson

Publications and source records attributed to Kevin B. Stevenson.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

Cloudy mornings and clear evenings on a gas giant exoplanet

The spectra of exoplanet atmospheres are affected by aerosols (clouds and hazes) of uncertain origin. Proposed aerosol formation mechanisms include gas condensation or photochemical reactions. We measure the transmission spectrum of the tidally locked gas giant exoplanet WASP-94A b and identify asymmetry in its atmosphere. The morning limb is cooler and cloudy, while the evening limb is hotter and exhibits gaseous H$_2$O absorption features. We interpret this difference as due to the formation of cloud droplets near the morning limb, which evaporate during circulation to the evening limb. The dominant aerosols are clouds cycling between the day and night sides of the atmosphere, not photochemical hazes. The resulting asymmetry can severely bias chemical abundance measurements, unless limb-resolved spectroscopy is available.

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arXiv2026

Horizontal transport as a source of disequilibrium chemistry on the nightside of a hot exoplanet

Hot Jupiters have temperature gradients of several hundreds of degrees between their permanent day and nightsides. In equilibrium, the primary carbon reservoir is expected to transition from CO on the dayside to CH4 on the nightside. Theory predicts that the atmospheric circulation, characterised by km/s winds, can advect chemical species from the dayside to the nightside faster than the time needed for the CO-to-CH4 chemical reaction to reach equilibrium. However direct evidence of this process has, so far, remained elusive, partly because it is often degenerate with other processes, such as vertical mixing or non-stellar elemental abundances. Here, we present observational evidence for such day-to-night transport of chemical species by observing both the dayside and the nightside of the hot Jupiter NGTS-10A b with the JWST/NIRSpec instrument. We constrain the presence of H2O and CO with similar abundances on both the dayside and nightside. Our observations are compatible with a solar-composition atmosphere at chemical equilibrium on the dayside, but indicative of disequilibrium chemistry for the nightside as it is significantly depleted in CH4 compared to equilibrium chemistry predictions. We further show that the lack of CH4 on the planet's nightside cannot be attributed to non-solar elemental abundances or to vertical mixing mechanisms and must therefore be due to horizontal chemical quenching. Our study shows the fundamental role atmospheric transport plays in shaping the distribution of chemical species on exoplanet atmospheres.

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arXiv2026

GEMS JWST: HATS-75 b -- A giant planet with a sub-solar metallicity atmosphere orbiting an M-dwarf

HATS-75 b is one of the recently discovered Giant Exoplanets orbiting M-dwarf Stars (GEMS) with a transmission spectrum shaped by both its atmosphere and the active stellar surface it transits. As part of a JWST program studying 7 GEMS, we observed three transits of HATS-75 b with the NIRSpec PRISM instrument (0.6-5.3 um). The planet's spectra exhibit a slightly larger transit depth at shorter wavelengths, indicative of hazes or stellar contamination due to stellar heterogeneities outside the transit chord, i.e., the transit light source (TLS) effect. While both a hazy atmospheric model or TLS model can replicate the transmission spectrum, independent evidence (.e.g, stellar rotation, spot-crossing events) favors a model that includes contamination from unocculted starspots and faculae. Within this stellar heterogeneity / TLS-based framework, atmospheric retrievals yield remarkably low atmospheric metallicity (log[M/H]=-1.74^{+0.92}_{-0.76}) and super-solar carbon-to-oxygen (C/O=1.04^{+0.40}_{-0.09}), which paired with a best-fit interior model with bulk metallicity of Z_p=0.20+/-0.04, implies poor vertical mixing within the planet. Retrievals also detect robust absorption signatures of CH4, CO, and CO2. We obtain only an upper limit for H2O, consistent with its atmospheric spectral features being masked by stellar contamination. These results underscore the importance of accounting for stellar heterogeneity when interpreting exoplanet transmission spectra and highlight HATS-75 b as a significant asset to our understanding of giant exoplanets around M-dwarfs with JWST.

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arXiv2026

GEMS JWST: A sub-Solar metallicity atmosphere for giant planet TOI-5293Ab orbiting a rapidly changing M-dwarf

The growing sample of Giant Exoplanets around M-dwarf Stars (GEMS) helps probe the extremes of giant planet formation. Comparing the properties of this sample with their FGK counterparts can help us understand how planet formation and migration depend on stellar mass. We initiated a large Cycle 2 JWST transmission spectroscopy survey of seven GEMS. Here we present the atmospheric characterization using two JWST transits of TOI-5293Ab, a 0.5 $M_J$ planet orbiting an early M-dwarf with a period of $\sim$ 3 days. The two NIRSpec/PRISM transits indicate the planet is eclipsing a rapidly changing (heterogeneous) stellar photosphere. We see that Visit 1 had heterogeneity crossings across the entire transit chord, rendering inferences from it to be unreliable. The Visit 1 spectrum exhibits a downward slope ${<1}$ $μ$m suggestive of stellar contamination from faculae. In contrast, for Visit 2 we are able to model the heterogeneity crossings and obtain a transmission spectrum free from stellar contamination. We therefore limit our conclusions to a detailed analysis of Visit 2, and using Bayesian free chemistry retrievals, we find a low atmospheric metallicity ($\log [\mathrm{M/H}] = -1.03^{+0.53}_{-0.44}$ $\times$ Solar) and slightly super-solar C/O ratio ($1.23^{+2.94}_{-0.75}$). The retrievals yield Bayes factors that indicate strong evidence for \ce{CH4} as well as low significance detections of \ce{CO2}, \ce{H2O}, \ce{NH3}. Finally, using thermal evolution models we find that the radius of TOI-5293Ab is inflated above theoretical expectations ($\sim$ 1.07 $R_J$), despite it having an temperature of $\sim$ 700 K, and hence we were unable to constrain its bulk composition.

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arXiv2026

Atmospheric Escape Rates from Mars - If it Orbited an Old M-Dwarf Star

Atmospheric escape is an important process that influences the evolution of planetary atmospheres. A variety of physical mechanisms can contribute to escape from an atmosphere, including thermal escape, ion escape, photochemical escape, and sputtering. Here we estimate escape rates via each of these processes for a hypothetical Mars-like exoplanet orbiting Barnard's star (an old, inactive M dwarf star). We place the planet at an orbital distance that receives the same total stellar flux as it does in our solar system. We use the measured stellar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectrum and assumptions on the star's magnetic field to determine both the high-energy radiation and the stellar wind environment around the planet. This information is used to model the response of the planet's thermosphere, exosphere and magnetosphere using a variety of models that have been validated against solar system observations. We find overall escape rates that are dominated by thermal processes and elevated by 2-5 orders of magnitude relative to present-day Mars, suggesting that a Mars-like planet orbiting Barnard's star would not retain a significant atmosphere for more than 10's of millions of years. Recently reported planets around Barnard's star should also not have retained significant atmospheres. By extension, Mars-like planets orbiting any M dwarf near the 'Habitable Zone' should not retain atmospheres for extended periods of time.

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arXiv2026

High Tide or Riptide on the Cosmic Shoreline? A Water-Rich Atmosphere or Stellar Contamination for the Warm Super-Earth GJ~486b from JWST Observations

Planets orbiting M-dwarf stars are prime targets in the search for rocky exoplanet atmospheres. The small size of M dwarfs renders their planets exceptional targets for transmission spectroscopy, facilitating atmospheric characterization. However, it remains unknown whether their host stars' highly variable extreme-UV radiation environments allow atmospheres to persist. With JWST, we have begun to determine whether or not the most favorable rocky worlds orbiting M dwarfs have detectable atmospheres. Here, we present a 2.8-5.2 micron JWST NIRSpec/G395H transmission spectrum of the warm (700 K, 40.3x Earth's insolation) super-Earth GJ 486b (1.3 R$_{\oplus}$ and 3.0 M$_{\oplus}$). The measured spectrum from our two transits of GJ 486b deviates from a flat line at 2.2 - 3.3 $σ$, based on three independent reductions. Through a combination of forward and retrieval models, we determine that GJ 486b either has a water-rich atmosphere (with the most stringent constraint on the retrieved water abundance of H2O > 10% to 2$σ$) or the transmission spectrum is contaminated by water present in cool unocculted starspots. We also find that the measured stellar spectrum is best fit by a stellar model with cool starspots and hot faculae. While both retrieval scenarios provide equal quality fits ($χ^2_ν$ = 1.0) to our NIRSpec/G395H observations, shorter wavelength observations can break this degeneracy and reveal if GJ 486b sustains a water-rich atmosphere.

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arXiv2026

GEMS JWST: Transmission spectroscopy of TOI-5205b reveals significant stellar contamination and a metal-poor atmosphere

Recent discoveries of transiting giant exoplanets ($R_p\gtrsim8\mathrm{~R_\oplus}$) around M dwarfs (GEMS) present an opportunity to investigate their atmospheric compositions and explore how such massive planets form around low-mass stars contrary to the prediction from formation models. We present the first transmission spectra of TOI-5205b, a short-period ($P=1.63~\mathrm{days}$) Jupiter-like planet ($M_p=1.08~\mathrm{M_J}$ and $R_p=0.94~\mathrm{R_J}$) orbiting an M4 dwarf ($M_\star=0.392~\mathrm{M_\odot}$, $R_\star=0.394~\mathrm{R_\odot}$). We obtained three transits using the PRISM mode of the JWST Near Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSpec) spanning $0.6-5.3$ um. The data reveal significant stellar contamination that is evident in the light curves as spot-crossing events and in the transmission spectra as a larger transit depth at bluer wavelengths. Atmospheric retrievals demonstrate that stellar contamination from unocculted starspots and faculae is the dominant component of the transmission spectrum at wavelengths $λ\lesssim3.0$ um, reducing the sensitivity to the presence of clouds or hazes in our models and preventing detection of $\mathrm{H_2O}$. The wavelength coverage enabled a robust detection of $\mathrm{CH_4}$ and $\mathrm{H_2S}$, which have detectable molecular features between $3.0-5.0$ um. For both clear or cloudy atmospheres, Bayesian retrievals consistently favored an atmosphere with sub-solar metallicity ($3σ$ upper limit of $\log\mathrm{[M/H]}\lesssim-1.24$) and super-solar C/O ratio ($3σ$ lower limit of $\log\mathrm{[C/O]}\gtrsim0.09$), although this may partly be driven by the non-detection of water due to stellar contamination. Planetary interior models predict a bulk metallicity of 10--20\%, which is larger than the atmospheric metallicity and suggests that the interior of TOI-5205b is decoupled from its atmosphere.

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arXiv2025

A Characterization of JWST MIRI Detector Persistence and Implications for High-Contrast Imaging

The JWST MIRI detector exhibits a flux deficit persistence, but its timescales and impacts remain largely uncharacterized, particularly at the longest imaging wavelengths. In this study, we analyze full-field MIRI imager observations at 21 $μ$m (F2100W) to quantify detector persistence following a saturation event by a bright (K = 5.65 mag) nearby (8.12 $\pm$ 0.04 pc) mid M-dwarf star, IRAS 21500+5903. Unlike typical persistence that appears as excess flux, this effect presents as a flux deficit in pixels previously illuminated by the saturating or near saturating source. We measure persistence at two post-saturation epochs: shortly after saturation (11.6 minutes) and an hour later (1.39 hours). Immediately after the saturation event, we detect a persistence level of $1.69 \pm 0.10$%. By fitting a Bayesian exponential decay model to the two epochs, we estimate that persistence decreases to one-tenth of its initial value after $5.16^{+1.49}_{-0.94}$ hours. We examine the implications of persistence for MIRI high-contrast imaging using the imager (not coronagraphy). Specifically, we discuss how MIRI detector persistence can produce false-positive exoplanet signals in direct imaging surveys, as well as degrade PSF subtraction, particularly at small inner working angles. We also outline mitigation strategies to avoid these impacts in future observations.

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arXiv2025

JWST TRAPPIST-1 e/b Program: Motivation and first observations

One of the forefront goals in the field of exoplanets is the detection of an atmosphere on a temperate terrestrial exoplanet, and among the best suited systems to do so is TRAPPIST-1. However, JWST transit observations of the TRAPPIST-1 planets show significant contamination from stellar surface features that we are unable to confidently model. Here, we present the motivation and first observations of our JWST multi-cycle program of TRAPPIST-1 e, which utilize close transits of the airless TRAPPIST-1 b to model-independently correct for stellar contamination, with the goal of determining whether TRAPPIST-1 e has an Earth-like mean molecular weight atmosphere containing CO$_2$. We present our simulations, which show that with the 15 close transit observations, we will be able to detect this atmosphere on TRAPPIST-1 e at $Δ\ln\,Z=5$ or greater confidence assuming we are able to correct for stellar contamination using the close transit observations. We also show the first three observations of our program. We find that our ability to correct for stellar contamination can be inhibited when strong stellar flares are present, as flares can break the assumption that the star does not change meaningfully between planetary transits. The cleanest observation demonstrates the removal of stellar contamination contribution through an increased preference for a flat line over the original TRAPPIST-1 e spectrum, but highlights how minor data analysis assumptions can propagate significantly when searching for small atmospheric signals. This is amplified when using the signals from multiple planets, which is important to consider as we continue our atmospheric search.

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arXiv2025

What's Inside Matters: The Effect of Oxygen Fugacity and Initial Volatile Abundance on the Atmospheres of the TRAPPIST-1 Planets

The TRAPPIST-1 planets have become prime targets for studying the atmospheric and geophysical properties of planets around M-dwarf stars. To effectively identify their atmospheric composition, we first must understand their geological evolution. For this study, we focus on enhancing an existing atmosphere-interior exchange model by incorporating additional geological processes relevant to rocky planets. We have extended the model to include the carbon cycle, which enables the model to track four key gas species - CO$_2$, CO, H$_2$O, and H$_2$ - across four planetary reservoirs: the mantle, plate, ocean, and atmosphere. Major features added include surface temperature calculations which are crucial for the carbon cycle, oxygen fugacity as a planetary interior parameter in the model, and oxidation reactions and diffusion-limited escape calculations to the atmosphere portion of the model. We successfully validated the model for Earth and applied this model to study the effect of oxygen fugacity and initial water abundance on TRAPPIST-1 d, e and f. Our results for present-day abundances show that oxygen fugacity significantly affects the partial pressures of H$_2$ and CO$_2$ for all three planets with minor effects for CO on two of the planets. We also found that H$_2$ is strongly dependent on water mass fraction (WMF). The addition of atmospheric processes produced a significant difference in the H$_2$ and CO abundances at present-day. These results highlight the importance of considering interior parameters to be able to further constrain the geological evolution of these planets and effectively put atmosphere observations into context.

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arXiv2025

Horizontal and vertical exoplanet thermal structure from a JWST spectroscopic eclipse map

Highly-irradiated giant exoplanets known as "ultra-hot Jupiters" are anticipated to exhibit large variations of atmospheric temperature and chemistry as a function of longitude, latitude, and altitude. Previous observations have hinted at these variations, but the existing data have been fundamentally restricted to probing hemisphere-integrated spectra, thereby providing only coarse information on atmospheric gradients. Here we present a spectroscopic eclipse map of an extrasolar planet, resolving the atmosphere in multiple dimensions simultaneously. We analyze a secondary eclipse of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-18b observed with the NIRISS instrument on JWST. The mapping reveals weaker longitudinal temperature gradients than were predicted by theoretical models, indicating the importance of hydrogen dissociation and/or nightside clouds in shaping global thermal emission. Additionally, we identify two thermally distinct regions of the planet's atmosphere: a "hotspot" surrounding the substellar point and a "ring" near the dayside limbs. The hotspot region shows a strongly inverted thermal structure due to the presence of optical absorbers and a water abundance marginally lower than the hemispheric average, in accordance with theoretical predictions. The ring region shows colder temperatures and poorly constrained chemical abundances. Similar future analyses will reveal three-dimensional thermal, chemical, and dynamical properties of a broad range of exoplanet atmospheres.

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arXiv2025

JWST-TST DREAMS: The Nightside Emission and Chemistry of WASP-17b

Theoretical studies have suggested using planetary infrared excess (PIE) to detect and characterize the thermal emission of transiting and non-transiting exoplanets, however the PIE technique requires empirical validation. Here we apply the PIE technique to a combination of JWST NIRSpec G395H transit and eclipse measurements of WASP-17b, a hot Jupiter orbiting an F-type star, obtained consecutively (0.5 phase or 1.8 days apart) as part of the JWST-TST program to perform Deep Reconnaissance of Exoplanet Atmospheres through Multi-instrument Spectroscopy (DREAMS). Using the in-eclipse measured stellar spectrum to circumvent the need for ultra-precise stellar models, we extract the first JWST nightside emission spectrum of WASP-17b using only transit and eclipse data thereby performing a controlled test of the PIE technique. From the WASP-17b nightside spectrum, we measure a nightside equilibrium temperature of $1005 \pm 256$ K and find tentative evidence for nightside SO2 absorption ($\ln B = 1.45$, $2.3σ$). In context with the dayside, the temperature of the nightside is consistent with (1) previous eclipse mapping findings that suggest relatively inefficient day-night heat transport, and (2) a non-zero bond albedo of $0.42^{+0.06}_{-0.10}$. SO2 on the nightside, if confirmed, would represent the first direct evidence for transport-induced chemistry, matching previous model predictions, and opening a new door into the 3D nature of giant exoplanets. Our results suggest that PIE is feasible with JWST/NIRSpec for two epochs separated in time by significantly less than the rotation period of the host star.

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arXiv2025

Heat Reveals What Clouds Conceal: Global Carbon & Longitudinally Asymmetric Chemistry on LTT 9779 b

LTT-9779 b is an ultra-hot Neptune (Rp ~ 4.7 Re, Mp ~ 29 Me) orbiting its Sun-like host star in just 19 hours, placing it deep within the "hot Neptune desert," where Neptunian planets are seldom found. We present new JWST NIRSpec G395H phase-curve observations that probe its atmospheric composition in unprecedented detail. At near-infrared wavelengths, which penetrate the high-altitude clouds inferred from previous NIRISS/SOSS spectra, thermal emission reveals a carbon-rich atmosphere with opacity dominated by carbon monoxide (CO) and carbon dioxide (CO2). Both species are detected at all orbital phases, with retrieved mixing ratios of 10^-1 for CO and 10^-4 for CO2, indicating a globally well-mixed reservoir of carbon-bearing gases. We also moderately detect water vapor (H2O) and tentatively detect sulfur dioxide (SO2), providing insight into its chemistry and possible photochemical production under intense stellar irradiation. From these detections we infer a carbon-to-oxygen ratio near unity (C/O ~ 1) and a metallicity exceeding 500X Solar, consistent with equilibrium chemistry predictions for high-temperature atmospheres. This enrichment raises the mean molecular weight, reducing atmospheric escape, and likely helps LTT-9779 b retain a substantial atmosphere despite extreme irradiation. Our findings show that LTT-9779 b survives where few planets can, maintaining a carbon-rich atmosphere in a region where hot Neptune-class worlds are expected to evaporate. This makes LTT-9779 b a valuable laboratory for studying atmospheric escape and chemical processes under extreme conditions, offering new insight into the survival of planets in the hot Neptune desert.

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arXiv2025

JWST-TST DREAMS: Sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere of the Neptune-mass planet HAT-P-26 b from NIRSpec G395H transmission spectroscopy

We present the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) transmission spectrum of the exoplanet HAT-P-26 b (18.6 Earth masses, 6.33 Earth radii), based on a single transit observed with the JWST NIRSpec G395H grating. We detect water vapor (ln B = 4.1), carbon dioxide (ln B = 85.6), and sulfur dioxide (ln B = 13.5) with high confidence, along with marginal indications for hydrogen sulfide and carbon monoxide (ln B < 0.5). The detection of SO2 in a warm super-Neptune sized exoplanet (radius about 6 Earth radii) bridges the gap between previous detections in hot Jupiters and sub-Neptunes, highlighting the role of disequilibrium photochemistry across a broad range of exoplanet atmospheres, including those cooler than 1000 K. Our precise measurements of carbon, oxygen, and sulfur indicate an atmospheric metallicity of about 10 times solar and a sub-solar C/O ratio. Retrieved molecular abundances are consistent within 2 sigma with predictions from self-consistent models including photochemistry. The elevated CO2 abundance and possible H2S signal may also reflect sensitivities to the thermal structure, cloud properties, or additional disequilibrium processes such as vertical mixing. We compare the SO2 abundance in HAT-P-26 b with that of ten other JWST-observed giant exoplanets, and find a correlation with atmospheric metallicity. The trend is consistent with the prediction from Crossfield (2023), showing a steep rise in SO2 abundance at low metallicities, and a more gradual increase beyond 30 times solar. This work is part of a series of studies by our JWST Telescope Scientist Team (JWST-TST), in which we use Guaranteed Time Observations to perform Deep Reconnaissance of Exoplanet Atmospheres through Multi-instrument Spectroscopy (DREAMS).

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arXiv2025

The Photochemical Plausibility of Warm Exo-Titans Orbiting M-Dwarf Stars

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has begun to spectrally characterize small exoplanets orbiting M-dwarf stars, but interpretation of these spectra is ambiguous, with stellar, instrumental, or atmospheric origins possible for apparent spectral features. Consequently, interpretation of JWST small exoplanet spectra follows a Bayesian approach, with less theoretically plausible interpretations facing a higher burden of proof. Here, we use photochemical modeling to evaluate the plausibility of warm exo-Titans, exoplanets with N$_2$-CH$_4$ atmospheres analogous to Titan but orbiting closer to their host stars. Consideration of warm exo-Titans is motivated by arguments from planet formation, as well as tentative evidence from observations. Using TRAPPIST-1e as a case study, we show that the higher instellation experienced by warm exo-Titans reduces their CH$_4$ lifetime $τ_{\text{CH}_{4}}$ relative to true Titan by orders of magnitude, reducing the probability of observing them. We constrain the $τ_{\text{CH}_{4}}$ on a warm exo-Titan to be $\leq0.1\times$ (and most likely $\leq0.02\times$) true Titan, implying the absolute probability of detecting a warm exo-Titan is $<0.1$ and likely $<0.01$. This finding is consistent with recent JWST nondetections of CH$_4$-dominated atmospheres on warm terrestrial exoplanets. The low prior probability means that the standard of proof required to claim a warm exo-Titan detection is high, and we offer specific suggestions towards such a standard of proof. Observation of oxidized carbon species would corroborate a putative warm exo-Titan detection. Confirmed detection of warm exo-Titans would signal the need to fundamentally rethink our understanding of the structure, dynamics, and photochemistry of Titan-like worlds.

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arXiv2025

JWST-TST DREAMS: NIRSpec/PRISM Transmission Spectroscopy of the Habitable Zone Planet TRAPPIST-1 e

TRAPPIST-1 e is one of the very few rocky exoplanets that is both amenable to atmospheric characterization and that resides in the habitable zone of its star -- located at a distance from its star such that it might, with the right atmosphere, sustain liquid water on its surface. Here, we present a set of 4 JWST/NIRSpec PRISM transmission spectra of TRAPPIST-1 e obtained from mid to late 2023. Our transmission spectra exhibit similar levels of stellar contamination as observed in prior works for other planets in the TRAPPIST-1 system (Lim et al, 2023; Radica et al., 2024), but over a wider wavelength range, showcasing the challenge of characterizing the TRAPPIST-1 planets even at relatively long wavelengths (3-5 um). While we show that current stellar modeling frameworks are unable to explain the stellar contamination features in our spectra, we demonstrate that we can marginalize over those features instead using Gaussian Processes, which enables us to perform novel exoplanet atmospheric inferences with our transmission spectra. In particular, we are able to rule out cloudy, primary H$_2$-dominated ($\gtrsim$ 80$\%$ by volume) atmospheres at better than a 3$σ$ level. Constraints on possible secondary atmospheres on TRAPPIST-1 e are presented in a companion paper (Glidden et al., 2025). Our work showcases how JWST is breaking ground into the precisions needed to constrain the atmospheric composition of habitable-zone rocky exoplanets.

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arXiv2025

JWST-TST DREAMS: Secondary Atmosphere Constraints for the Habitable Zone Planet TRAPPIST-1 e

The TRAPPIST-1 system offers one of the best opportunities to characterize temperate terrestrial planets beyond our own solar system. Within the TRAPPIST-1 system, planet e stands out as highly likely to sustain surface liquid water if it possesses an atmosphere. Recently, we reported the first JWST/NIRSpec PRISM transmission spectra of TRAPPIST-1 e, revealing significant stellar contamination, which varied between the four visits. Here, we assess the range of planetary atmospheres consistent with our transmission spectrum. We explore a wide range of atmospheric scenarios via a hierarchy of forward modeling and retrievals. We do not obtain strong evidence for or against an atmosphere. Our results weakly disfavor CO$_2$-rich atmospheres for pressures corresponding to the surface of Venus and Mars and the cloud tops of Venus at 2$σ$. We exclude H$_2$-rich atmospheres containing CO$_2$ and CH$_4$ in agreement with past work, but find that higher mean molecular weight, N$_2$-rich atmospheres with trace CO$_2$ and CH$_4$ are permitted by the data. Both a bare rock and N$_2$-rich atmospheric scenario provide adequate fits to the data, but do not fully explain all features, which may be due to either uncorrected stellar contamination or atmospheric signals. Ongoing JWST observations of TRAPPIST-1 e, exploiting consecutive transits with TRAPPIST-1 b, will offer stronger constraints via a more effective stellar contamination correction. The present work is part of the JWST Telescope Scientist Team (JWST-TST) Guaranteed Time Observations, which is performing a Deep Reconnaissance of Exoplanet Atmospheres through Multi-instrument Spectroscopy (DREAMS).

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arXiv2025

K2-18b Does Not Meet The Standards of Evidence For Life

K2-18b, a temperate sub-Neptune, has garnered significant attention due to claims of possible biosignatures in its atmosphere. Low-confidence detections of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and/or dimethyl disulfide (DMDS) have sparked considerable debate, primarily around arguments that their absorption features are not uniquely identifiable. Here, we consider all five questions from the astrobiology standards of evidence framework, starting with: Have we detected an authentic signal? To answer this, we analyzed publicly-available JWST observations of K2-18b using independent data reduction and spectral retrieval methodologies. Our comprehensive set of reductions demonstrates that the MIRI transit spectrum is highly susceptible to unresolved instrumental systematics. Applying different wavelength binning schemes yields a potpourri of planet spectra that then lead to a wide assortment of atmospheric interpretations. Consequently, we offer recommendations to help minimize this previously-underappreciated instrument systematic in future MIRI reductions of any exoplanet. While the MIRI binning scheme adopted by Madhusudhan et al. (2025) favors the presence of DMS/DMDS in K2-18b, we find that 87.5% of retrievals using our preferred MIRI binning scheme do not. When considering the full, 0.7 - 12 micron transit spectrum, we confirm the detection of CH4 and favor CO2, and find the presence of DMS and C2H4 to be interchangeable. Moreover, we find that the tentative presence of large features in the MIRI transit spectrum is in tension with the more robust, yet smaller, features observed in the near IR. We conclude that red noise -- rather than an astrophysical signal -- plagues the mid-IR data and there is, as yet, no statistically significant evidence for biosignatures in the atmosphere of K2-18b.

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