arXiv subjects

Kevin He

Publications and source records attributed to Kevin He.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Composite Scores for Transplant Center Evaluation: A New Individualized Empirical Null Method

Risk-adjusted quality measures are used to evaluate healthcare providers while controlling for factors beyond their control. Existing healthcare provider profiling approaches typically assume that the risk adjustment is perfect and the between-provider variation in quality measures is entirely due to the quality of care. However, in practice, even with very good models for risk adjustment, some between-provider variation will be due to incomplete risk adjustment, which should be recognized in assessing and monitoring providers. Otherwise, conventional methods disproportionately identify larger providers as outliers, even though their provider effects need not be "extreme.'' Motivated by efforts to evaluate the quality of care provided by transplant centers, we develop a composite evaluation score based on a novel individualized empirical null method, which robustly accounts for overdispersion due to unobserved risk factors, models the marginal variance of standardized scores as a function of the effective center size, and only requires the use of publicly-available center-level statistics. The evaluations of United States kidney transplant centers based on the proposed composite score are substantially different from those based on conventional methods. Simulations show that the proposed empirical null approach more accurately classifies centers in terms of quality of care, compared to existing methods.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

Observability, Dominance, and Induction in Learning Models

Learning models do not in general imply that weakly dominated strategies are irrelevant or justify the related concept of "forward induction," because rational agents may use dominated strategies as experiments to learn how opponents play, and may not have enough data to rule out a strategy that opponents never use. Learning models also do not support the idea that the selected equilibria should only depend on a game's normal form, even though two games with the same normal form present players with the same decision problems given fixed beliefs about how others play. However, playing the extensive form of a game is equivalent to playing the normal form augmented with the appropriate terminal node partitions so that two games are information equivalent, i.e., the players receive the same feedback about others' strategies.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2021

Survival Analysis via Ordinary Differential Equations

This paper introduces an Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) notion for survival analysis. The ODE notion not only provides a unified modeling framework, but more importantly, also enables the development of a widely applicable, scalable, and easy-to-implement procedure for estimation and inference. Specifically, the ODE modeling framework unifies many existing survival models, such as the proportional hazards model, the linear transformation model, the accelerated failure time model, and the time-varying coefficient model as special cases. The generality of the proposed framework serves as the foundation of a widely applicable estimation procedure. As an illustrative example, we develop a sieve maximum likelihood estimator for a general semi-parametric class of ODE models. In comparison to existing estimation methods, the proposed procedure has advantages in terms of computational scalability and numerical stability. Moreover, to address unique theoretical challenges induced by the ODE notion, we establish a new general sieve M-theorem for bundled parameters and show that the proposed sieve estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal, and achieves the semi-parametric efficiency bound. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimator is examined in simulation studies and a real-world data example.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Mislearning from Censored Data: The Gambler's Fallacy and Other Correlational Mistakes in Optimal-Stopping Problems

I study endogenous learning dynamics for people who misperceive intertemporal correlations in random sequences. Biased agents face an optimal-stopping problem. They are uncertain about the underlying distribution and learn its parameters from predecessors. Agents stop when early draws are "good enough," so predecessors' experiences contain negative streaks but not positive streaks. When agents wrongly expect systematic reversals (the "gambler's fallacy"), they understate the likelihood of consecutive below-average draws, converge to over-pessimistic beliefs about the distribution's mean, and stop too early. Agents uncertain about the distribution's variance overestimate it to an extent that depends on predecessors' stopping thresholds. I also analyze how other misperceptions of intertemporal correlation interact with endogenous data censoring.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

An Experiment on Network Density and Sequential Learning

We conduct a sequential social-learning experiment where subjects each guess a hidden state based on private signals and the guesses of a subset of their predecessors. A network determines the observable predecessors, and we compare subjects' accuracy on sparse and dense networks. Accuracy gains from social learning are twice as large on sparse networks compared to dense networks. Models of naive inference where agents ignore correlation between observations predict this comparative static in network density, while the finding is difficult to reconcile with rational-learning models.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2021

Searching for Dark Matter with a Superconducting Qubit

Detection mechanisms for low mass bosonic dark matter candidates, such the axion or hidden photon, leverage potential interactions with electromagnetic fields, whereby the dark matter (of unknown mass) on rare occasion converts into a single photon. Current dark matter searches operating at microwave frequencies use a resonant cavity to coherently accumulate the field sourced by the dark matter and a near standard quantum limited (SQL) linear amplifier to read out the cavity signal. To further increase sensitivity to the dark matter signal, sub-SQL detection techniques are required. Here we report the development of a novel microwave photon counting technique and a new exclusion limit on hidden photon dark matter. We operate a superconducting qubit to make repeated quantum non-demolition measurements of cavity photons and apply a hidden Markov model analysis to reduce the noise to 15.7 dB below the quantum limit, with overall detector performance limited by a residual background of real photons. With the present device, we perform a hidden photon search and constrain the kinetic mixing angle to $ε\leq 1.68 \times 10^{-15}$ in a band around 6.011 GHz (24.86 $μ$eV) with an integration time of 8.33 s. This demonstrated noise reduction technique enables future dark matter searches to be sped up by a factor of 1300. By coupling a qubit to an arbitrary quantum sensor, more general sub-SQL metrology is possible with the techniques presented in this work.

hep-ex↗

arXiv2020

Seamless high-Q microwave cavities for multimode circuit QED

Multimode cavity quantum electrodynamics ---where a two-level system interacts simultaneously with many cavity modes---provides a versatile framework for quantum information processing and quantum optics. Due to the combination of long coherence times and large interaction strengths, one of the leading experimental platforms for cavity QED involves coupling a superconducting circuit to a 3D microwave cavity. In this work, we realize a 3D multimode circuit QED system with single photon lifetimes of $2$ ms and cooperativities of $0.5-1.5\times10^9$ across 9 modes of a novel seamless cavity. We demonstrate a variety of protocols for universal single-mode quantum control applicable across all cavity modes, using only a single drive line. We achieve this by developing a straightforward flute method for creating monolithic superconducting microwave cavities that reduces loss while simultaneously allowing control of the mode spectrum and mode-qubit interaction. We highlight the flexibility and ease of implementation of this technique by using it to fabricate a variety of 3D cavity geometries, providing a template for engineering multimode quantum systems with exceptionally low dissipation. This work is an important step towards realizing hardware efficient random access quantum memories and processors, and for exploring quantum many-body physics with photons.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2020

Multimode photon blockade

Interactions are essential for the creation of correlated quantum many-body states. While two-body interactions underlie most natural phenomena, three- and four-body interactions are important for the physics of nuclei [1], exotic few-body states in ultracold quantum gases [2], the fractional quantum Hall effect [3], quantum error correction [4], and holography [5, 6]. Recently, a number of artificial quantum systems have emerged as simulators for many-body physics, featuring the ability to engineer strong interactions. However, the interactions in these systems have largely been limited to the two-body paradigm, and require building up multi-body interactions by combining two-body forces. Here, we demonstrate a pure N-body interaction between microwave photons stored in an arbitrary number of electromagnetic modes of a multimode cavity. The system is dressed such that there is collectively no interaction until a target total photon number is reached across multiple distinct modes, at which point they interact strongly. The microwave cavity features 9 modes with photon lifetimes of $\sim 2$ ms coupled to a superconducting transmon circuit, forming a multimode circuit QED system with single photon cooperativities of $\sim10^9$. We generate multimode interactions by using cavity photon number resolved drives on the transmon circuit to blockade any multiphoton state with a chosen total photon number distributed across the target modes. We harness the interaction for state preparation, preparing Fock states of increasing photon number via quantum optimal control pulses acting only on the cavity modes. We demonstrate multimode interactions by generating entanglement purely with uniform cavity drives and multimode photon blockade, and characterize the resulting two- and three-mode W states using a new protocol for multimode Wigner tomography.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2020

Cox-nnet v2.0: improved neural-network based survival prediction extended to large-scale EMR dataset

Cox-nnet is a neural-network based prognosis prediction method, originally applied to genomics data. Here we propose the version 2 of Cox-nnet, with significant improvement on efficiency and interpretability, making it suitable to predict prognosis based on large-scale electronic medical records (EMR) datasets. We also add permutation-based feature importance scores and the direction of feature coefficients. Applying on an EMR dataset of OPTN kidney transplantation, Cox-nnet v2.0 reduces the training time of Cox-nnet up to 32 folds (n=10,000) and achieves better prediction accuracy than Cox-PH (p<0.05). Availability and implementation: Cox-nnet v2.0 is freely available to the public at https://github.com/lanagarmire/Cox-nnet-v2.0

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2020

Accounting for total variation and robustness in profiling health care providers

Monitoring outcomes of health care providers, such as patient deaths, hospitalizations and hospital readmissions, helps in assessing the quality of health care. We consider a large database on patients being treated at dialysis facilities in the United States, and the problem of identifying facilities with outcomes that are better than or worse than expected. Analyses of such data have been commonly based on random or fixed facility effects, which have shortcomings that can lead to unfair assessments. A primary issue is that they do not appropriately account for variation between providers that is outside the providers' control due, for example, to unobserved patient characteristics that vary between providers. In this article, we propose a smoothed empirical null approach that accounts for the total variation and adapts to different provider sizes. The linear model provides an illustration that extends easily to other nonlinear models for survival or binary outcomes, for example. The empirical null method is generalized to allow for some variation being due to quality of care. These methods are examined with numerical simulations and applied to the monitoring of survival in the dialysis facility data.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

Player-Compatible Learning and Player-Compatible Equilibrium

Player-Compatible Equilibrium (PCE) imposes cross-player restrictions on the magnitudes of the players' "trembles" onto different strategies. These restrictions capture the idea that trembles correspond to deliberate experiments by agents who are unsure of the prevailing distribution of play. PCE selects intuitive equilibria in a number of examples where trembling-hand perfect equilibrium (Selten, 1975) and proper equilibrium (Myerson, 1978) have no bite. We show that rational learning and weighted fictitious play imply our compatibility restrictions in a steady-state setting.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2020

Matching methods for obtaining survival functions to estimate the effect of a time-dependent treatment

In observational studies of survival time featuring a binary time-dependent treatment, the hazard ratio (an instantaneous measure) is often used to represent the treatment effect. However, investigators are often more interested in the difference in survival functions. We propose semiparametric methods to estimate the causal effect of treatment among the treated with respect to survival probability. The objective is to compare post-treatment survival with the survival function that would have been observed in the absence of treatment. For each patient, we compute a prognostic score (based on the pre-treatment death hazard) and a propensity score (based on the treatment hazard). Each treated patient is then matched with an alive, uncensored and not-yet-treated patient with similar prognostic and/or propensity scores. The experience of each treated and matched patient is weighted using a variant of Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighting to account for the impact of censoring. We propose estimators of the treatment-specific survival functions (and their difference), computed through weighted Nelson-Aalen estimators. Closed-form variance estimators are proposed which take into consideration the potential replication of subjects across matched sets. The proposed methods are evaluated through simulation, then applied to estimate the effect of kidney transplantation on survival among end-stage renal disease patients using data from a national organ failure registry.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Network Structure and Naive Sequential Learning

We study a sequential-learning model featuring a network of naive agents with Gaussian information structures. Agents apply a heuristic rule to aggregate predecessors' actions. They weigh these actions according the strengths of their social connections to different predecessors. We show this rule arises endogenously when agents wrongly believe others act solely on private information and thus neglect redundancies among observations. We provide a simple linear formula expressing agents' actions in terms of network paths and use this formula to characterize the set of networks where naive agents eventually learn correctly. This characterization implies that, on all networks where later agents observe more than one neighbor, there exist disproportionately influential early agents who can cause herding on incorrect actions. Going beyond existing social-learning results, we compute the probability of such mislearning exactly. This allows us to compare likelihoods of incorrect herding, and hence expected welfare losses, across network structures. The probability of mislearning increases when link densities are higher and when networks are more integrated. In partially segregated networks, divergent early signals can lead to persistent disagreement between groups.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2020

Payoff Information and Learning in Signaling Games

We add the assumption that players know their opponents' payoff functions and rationality to a model of non-equilibrium learning in signaling games. Agents are born into player roles and play against random opponents every period. Inexperienced agents are uncertain about the prevailing distribution of opponents' play, but believe that opponents never choose conditionally dominated strategies. Agents engage in active learning and update beliefs based on personal observations. Payoff information can refine or expand learning predictions, since patient young senders' experimentation incentives depend on which receiver responses they deem plausible. We show that with payoff knowledge, the limiting set of long-run learning outcomes is bounded above by rationality-compatible equilibria (RCE), and bounded below by uniform RCE. RCE refine the Intuitive Criterion (Cho and Kreps, 1987) and include all divine equilibria (Banks and Sobel, 1987). Uniform RCE sometimes but not always exists, and implies universally divine equilibrium.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2019

Minorization-Maximization-based Steepest Ascent for Large-scale Survival Analysis with Time-Varying Effects: Application to the National Kidney Transplant Dataset

The time-varying effects model is a flexible and powerful tool for modeling the dynamic changes of covariate effects. However, in survival analysis, its computational burden increases quickly as the number of sample sizes or predictors grows. Traditional methods that perform well for moderate sample sizes and low-dimensional data do not scale to massive data. Analysis of national kidney transplant data with a massive sample size and large number of predictors defy any existing statistical methods and software. In view of these difficulties, we propose a Minorization-Maximization-based steepest ascent procedure for estimating the time-varying effects. Leveraging the block structure formed by the basis expansions, the proposed procedure iteratively updates the optimal block-wise direction along which the approximate increase in the log-partial likelihood is maximized. The resulting estimates ensure the ascent property and serve as refinements of the previous step. The performance of the proposed method is examined by simulations and applications to the analysis of national kidney transplant data.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2018

Learning and Type Compatibility in Signaling Games

Which equilibria will arise in signaling games depends on how the receiver interprets deviations from the path of play. We develop a micro-foundation for these off-path beliefs, and an associated equilibrium refinement, in a model where equilibrium arises through non-equilibrium learning by populations of patient and long-lived senders and receivers. In our model, young senders are uncertain about the prevailing distribution of play, so they rationally send out-of-equilibrium signals as experiments to learn about the behavior of the population of receivers. Differences in the payoff functions of the types of senders generate different incentives for these experiments. Using the Gittins index (Gittins, 1979), we characterize which sender types use each signal more often, leading to a constraint on the receiver's off-path beliefs based on "type compatibility" and hence a learning-based equilibrium selection.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2018

Covariance-Insured Screening

Modern bio-technologies have produced a vast amount of high-throughput data with the number of predictors far greater than the sample size. In order to identify more novel biomarkers and understand biological mechanisms, it is vital to detect signals weakly associated with outcomes among ultrahigh-dimensional predictors. However, existing screening methods, which typically ignore correlation information, are likely to miss these weak signals. By incorporating the inter-feature dependence, we propose a covariance-insured screening methodology to identify predictors that are jointly informative but only marginally weakly associated with outcomes. The validity of the method is examined via extensive simulations and real data studies for selecting potential genetic factors related to the onset of cancer.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

SurvBoost: An R Package for High-Dimensional Variable Selection in the Stratified Proportional Hazards Model via Gradient Boosting

High-dimensional variable selection in the proportional hazards (PH) model has many successful applications in different areas. In practice, data may involve confounding variables that do not satisfy the PH assumption, in which case the stratified proportional hazards (SPH) model can be adopted to control the confounding effects by stratification of the confounding variable, without directly modeling the confounding effects. However, there is lack of computationally efficient statistical software for high-dimensional variable selection in the SPH model. In this work, an R package, SurvBoost, is developed to implement the gradient boosting algorithm for fitting the SPH model with high-dimensional covariate variables and other confounders. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that in many scenarios SurvBoost can achieve a better selection accuracy and reduce computational time substantially compared to the existing R package that implements boosting algorithms without stratification. The proposed R package is also illustrated by an analysis of the gene expression data with survival outcome in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) study. In addition, a detailed hands-on tutorial for SurvBoost is provided.

stat.CO↗