arXiv subjects

Liang Sun

Publications and source records attributed to Liang Sun.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Demand Modeling for Advanced Air Mobility

In recent years, the rapid pace of urbanization has posed profound challenges globally, exacerbating environmental concerns and escalating traffic congestion in metropolitan areas. To mitigate these issues, Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) has emerged as a promising transportation alternative. However, the effective implementation of AAM requires robust demand modeling. This study delves into the demand dynamics of AAM by analyzing employment based trip data across Tennessee's census tracts, employing statistical techniques and machine learning models to enhance accuracy in demand forecasting. Drawing on datasets from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and additional sources, we perform cost, time, and risk assessments to compute the Generalized Cost of Trip (GCT). Our findings indicate that trips are more likely to be viable for AAM if air transportation accounts for over 70\% of the GCT and the journey spans more than 250 miles. The study not only refines the understanding of AAM demand but also guides strategic planning and policy formulation for sustainable urban mobility solutions. The data and code can be accessed on GitHub.{https://github.com/lotussavy/IEEEBigData-2024.git }

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Maximizing the Impact of Deep Learning on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Climate Forecasting: The Essential Role of Optimization

Weather and climate forecasting is vital for sectors such as agriculture and disaster management. Although numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems have advanced, forecasting at the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) scale, spanning 2 to 6 weeks, remains challenging due to the chaotic and sparse atmospheric signals at this interval. Even state-of-the-art deep learning models struggle to outperform simple climatology models in this domain. This paper identifies that optimization, instead of network structure, could be the root cause of this performance gap, and then we develop a novel multi-stage optimization strategy to close the gap. Extensive empirical studies demonstrate that our multi-stage optimization approach significantly improves key skill metrics, PCC and TCC, while utilizing the same backbone structure, surpassing the state-of-the-art NWP systems (ECMWF-S2S) by over \textbf{19-91\%}. Our research contests the recent study that direct forecasting outperforms rolling forecasting for S2S tasks. Through theoretical analysis, we propose that the underperformance of rolling forecasting may arise from the accumulation of Jacobian matrix products during training. Our multi-stage framework can be viewed as a form of teacher forcing to address this issue. Code is available at \url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Baguan-S2S-23E7/}

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Understanding the Role of Textual Prompts in LLM for Time Series Forecasting: an Adapter View

In the burgeoning domain of Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a growing interest in applying LLM to time series forecasting, with multiple studies focused on leveraging textual prompts to further enhance the predictive prowess. This study aims to understand how and why the integration of textual prompts into LLM can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of time series, which is not obvious at the glance, given the significant domain gap between texts and time series. Our extensive examination leads us to believe that (a) adding text prompts is roughly equivalent to introducing additional adapters, and (b) It is the introduction of learnable parameters rather than textual information that aligns the LLM with the time series forecasting task, ultimately enhancing prediction accuracy. Inspired by this discovery, we developed four adapters that explicitly address the gap between LLM and time series, and further improve the prediction accuracy. Overall,our work highlights how textual prompts enhance LLM accuracy in time series forecasting and suggests new avenues for continually improving LLM-based time series analysis.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Task-oriented Time Series Imputation Evaluation via Generalized Representers

Time series analysis is widely used in many fields such as power energy, economics, and transportation, including different tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, etc. Missing values are widely observed in these tasks, and often leading to unpredictable negative effects on existing methods, hindering their further application. In response to this situation, existing time series imputation methods mainly focus on restoring sequences based on their data characteristics, while ignoring the performance of the restored sequences in downstream tasks. Considering different requirements of downstream tasks (e.g., forecasting), this paper proposes an efficient downstream task-oriented time series imputation evaluation approach. By combining time series imputation with neural network models used for downstream tasks, the gain of different imputation strategies on downstream tasks is estimated without retraining, and the most favorable imputation value for downstream tasks is given by combining different imputation strategies according to the estimated gain.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Mitigating Time Discretization Challenges with WeatherODE: A Sandwich Physics-Driven Neural ODE for Weather Forecasting

In the field of weather forecasting, traditional models often grapple with discretization errors and time-dependent source discrepancies, which limit their predictive performance. In this paper, we present WeatherODE, a novel one-stage, physics-driven ordinary differential equation (ODE) model designed to enhance weather forecasting accuracy. By leveraging wave equation theory and integrating a time-dependent source model, WeatherODE effectively addresses the challenges associated with time-discretization error and dynamic atmospheric processes. Moreover, we design a CNN-ViT-CNN sandwich structure, facilitating efficient learning dynamics tailored for distinct yet interrelated tasks with varying optimization biases in advection equation estimation. Through rigorous experiments, WeatherODE demonstrates superior performance in both global and regional weather forecasting tasks, outperforming recent state-of-the-art approaches by significant margins of over 40.0\% and 31.8\% in root mean square error (RMSE), respectively. The source code is available at \url{https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/WeatherODE}.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Less is more: Embracing sparsity and interpolation with Esiformer for time series forecasting

Time series forecasting has played a significant role in many practical fields. But time series data generated from real-world applications always exhibits high variance and lots of noise, which makes it difficult to capture the inherent periodic patterns of the data, hurting the prediction accuracy significantly. To address this issue, we propose the Esiformer, which apply interpolation on the original data, decreasing the overall variance of the data and alleviating the influence of noise. What's more, we enhanced the vanilla transformer with a robust Sparse FFN. It can enhance the representation ability of the model effectively, and maintain the excellent robustness, avoiding the risk of overfitting compared with the vanilla implementation. Through evaluations on challenging real-world datasets, our method outperforms leading model PatchTST, reducing MSE by 6.5% and MAE by 5.8% in multivariate time series forecasting. Code is available at: https://github.com/yyg1282142265/Esiformer/tree/main.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Multi-channel machine learning based nonlocal kinetic energy density functional for semiconductors

The recently proposed machine learning-based physically-constrained nonlocal (MPN) kinetic energy density functional (KEDF) can be used for simple metals and their alloys [Phys. Rev. B 109, 115135 (2024)]. However, the MPN KEDF does not perform well for semiconductors. Here we propose a multi-channel MPN (CPN) KEDF, which extends the MPN KEDF to semiconductors by integrating information collected from multiple channels, with each channel featuring a specific length scale in real space. The CPN KEDF is systematically tested on silicon and binary semiconductors. We find that the multi-channel design for KEDF is beneficial for machine-learning-based models in capturing the characteristics of semiconductors, particularly in handling covalent bonds. In particular, the CPN5 KEDF, which utilizes five channels, demonstrates excellent accuracy across all tested systems. These results offer a new path for generating KEDFs for semiconductors.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗

arXiv2024

Evolving Multi-Scale Normalization for Time Series Forecasting under Distribution Shifts

Complex distribution shifts are the main obstacle to achieving accurate long-term time series forecasting. Several efforts have been conducted to capture the distribution characteristics and propose adaptive normalization techniques to alleviate the influence of distribution shifts. However, these methods neglect the intricate distribution dynamics observed from various scales and the evolving functions of distribution dynamics and normalized mapping relationships. To this end, we propose a novel model-agnostic Evolving Multi-Scale Normalization (EvoMSN) framework to tackle the distribution shift problem. Flexible normalization and denormalization are proposed based on the multi-scale statistics prediction module and adaptive ensembling. An evolving optimization strategy is designed to update the forecasting model and statistics prediction module collaboratively to track the shifting distributions. We evaluate the effectiveness of EvoMSN in improving the performance of five mainstream forecasting methods on benchmark datasets and also show its superiority compared to existing advanced normalization and online learning approaches. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/qindalin/EvoMSN.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

FuzzCoder: Byte-level Fuzzing Test via Large Language Model

Fuzzing is an important dynamic program analysis technique designed for finding vulnerabilities in complex software. Fuzzing involves presenting a target program with crafted malicious input to cause crashes, buffer overflows, memory errors, and exceptions. Crafting malicious inputs in an efficient manner is a difficult open problem and the best approaches often apply uniform random mutations to pre-existing valid inputs. In this work, we propose to adopt fine-tuned large language models (FuzzCoder) to learn patterns in the input files from successful attacks to guide future fuzzing explorations. Specifically, we develop a framework to leverage the code LLMs to guide the mutation process of inputs in fuzzing. The mutation process is formulated as the sequence-to-sequence modeling, where LLM receives a sequence of bytes and then outputs the mutated byte sequence. FuzzCoder is fine-tuned on the created instruction dataset (Fuzz-Instruct), where the successful fuzzing history is collected from the heuristic fuzzing tool. FuzzCoder can predict mutation locations and strategies locations in input files to trigger abnormal behaviors of the program. Experimental results show that FuzzCoder based on AFL (American Fuzzy Lop) gain significant improvements in terms of effective proportion of mutation (EPM) and number of crashes (NC) for various input formats including ELF, JPG, MP3, and XML.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

DiffLoad: Uncertainty Quantification in Electrical Load Forecasting with the Diffusion Model

Electrical load forecasting plays a crucial role in decision-making for power systems, including unit commitment and economic dispatch. The integration of renewable energy sources and the occurrence of external events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, have rapidly increased uncertainties in load forecasting. The uncertainties in load forecasting can be divided into two types: epistemic uncertainty and aleatoric uncertainty. Separating these types of uncertainties can help decision-makers better understand where and to what extent the uncertainty is, thereby enhancing their confidence in the following decision-making. This paper proposes a diffusion-based Seq2Seq structure to estimate epistemic uncertainty and employs the robust additive Cauchy distribution to estimate aleatoric uncertainty. Our method not only ensures the accuracy of load forecasting but also demonstrates the ability to separate the two types of uncertainties and be applicable to different levels of loads. The relevant code can be found at \url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/DiffLoad-4714/}.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Inflight Performance and Calibrations of the Lyman-alpha Solar Telescope on board the Advanced Space-based Solar Observatory

The Lyman-alpha Solar Telescope (LST) on board the Advanced Space-based Solar Observatory (ASO-S) is the first payload to image the full solar disk and the solar corona in both white-light (WL) and ultraviolet (UV) H I Lya, extending up to 2.5 solar radii (Rs). Since the launch of the ASO-S on 9 October 2022, LST has captured various significant solar activities including flares, prominences, coronal mass ejections (CMEs). LST covers different passbands of 121.6 nm, 360 nm and 700 nm. The Lya Solar Disk Imager (SDI) has a field of view (FOV) of 38.4 arcmin and a spatial resolution of around 9.5 arcsec, while the White-Light Solar Telescope (WST) has a FOV of 38.43 arcmin and a spatial resolution of around 3.0 arcsec. The FOV of the Lya Solar Corona Imager (SCI) reaches 81.1 arcmin and its spatial resolution is 4.3 arcsec. The stray-light level in the 700 nm waveband is about 7.8e-6 MSB (mean solar brightness) at 1.1 Rs and 7.6e-7 MSB at 2.5 Rs, and in the Lya waveband it is around 4.3e-3 MSB at 1.1 Rs and 4.1e-4 MSB at 2.5 Rs. This article will detail the results from on-orbit tests and calibrations.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Dark photon constraints from a 7.139 GHz cavity haloscope experiment

The dark photon is a promising candidate for the dark matter which comprises most of the matter in our visible Universe. Via kinetic mixing with the Standard Model it can also be resonantly converted to photons in an electromagnetic cavity, offering novel experimental possibilities for the discovery and study of dark matter. We report the results of a pathfinder dark photon dark matter cavity search experiment performed at Hunan Normal University and the Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, representing the first stage of the APEX (Axion and dark Photon EXperiment) program. Finding no statistically significant excess, we place an upper limit on the kinetic mixing parameter $|χ|<3.7\times 10^{-13}$ around $m_A\simeq 29.5$ $μ$eV at 90% confidence level. This result exceeds other constraints on dark photon dark matter in this frequency range by roughly an order of magnitude.

hep-ex↗

arXiv2024

Improving Air Mobility for Pre-Disaster Planning with Neural Network Accelerated Genetic Algorithm

Weather disaster related emergency operations pose a great challenge to air mobility in both aircraft and airport operations, especially when the impact is gradually approaching. We propose an optimized framework for adjusting airport operational schedules for such pre-disaster scenarios. We first, aggregate operational data from multiple airports and then determine the optimal count of evacuation flights to maximize the impacted airport's outgoing capacity without impeding regular air traffic. We then propose a novel Neural Network (NN) accelerated Genetic Algorithm(GA) for evacuation planning. Our experiments show that integration yielded comparable results but with smaller computational overhead. We find that the utilization of a NN enhances the efficiency of a GA, facilitating more rapid convergence even when operating with a reduced population size. This effectiveness persists even when the model is trained on data from airports different from those under test.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2024

CURLS: Causal Rule Learning for Subgroups with Significant Treatment Effect

In causal inference, estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) is critical for identifying how different subgroups respond to interventions, with broad applications in fields such as precision medicine and personalized advertising. Although HTE estimation methods aim to improve accuracy, how to provide explicit subgroup descriptions remains unclear, hindering data interpretation and strategic intervention management. In this paper, we propose CURLS, a novel rule learning method leveraging HTE, which can effectively describe subgroups with significant treatment effects. Specifically, we frame causal rule learning as a discrete optimization problem, finely balancing treatment effect with variance and considering the rule interpretability. We design an iterative procedure based on the minorize-maximization algorithm and solve a submodular lower bound as an approximation for the original. Quantitative experiments and qualitative case studies verify that compared with state-of-the-art methods, CURLS can find subgroups where the estimated and true effects are 16.1% and 13.8% higher and the variance is 12.0% smaller, while maintaining similar or better estimation accuracy and rule interpretability. Code is available at https://osf.io/zwp2k/.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

APSeg: Auto-Prompt Network for Cross-Domain Few-Shot Semantic Segmentation

Few-shot semantic segmentation (FSS) endeavors to segment unseen classes with only a few labeled samples. Current FSS methods are commonly built on the assumption that their training and application scenarios share similar domains, and their performances degrade significantly while applied to a distinct domain. To this end, we propose to leverage the cutting-edge foundation model, the Segment Anything Model (SAM), for generalization enhancement. The SAM however performs unsatisfactorily on domains that are distinct from its training data, which primarily comprise natural scene images, and it does not support automatic segmentation of specific semantics due to its interactive prompting mechanism. In our work, we introduce APSeg, a novel auto-prompt network for cross-domain few-shot semantic segmentation (CD-FSS), which is designed to be auto-prompted for guiding cross-domain segmentation. Specifically, we propose a Dual Prototype Anchor Transformation (DPAT) module that fuses pseudo query prototypes extracted based on cycle-consistency with support prototypes, allowing features to be transformed into a more stable domain-agnostic space. Additionally, a Meta Prompt Generator (MPG) module is introduced to automatically generate prompt embeddings, eliminating the need for manual visual prompts. We build an efficient model which can be applied directly to target domains without fine-tuning. Extensive experiments on four cross-domain datasets show that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art CD-FSS method by 5.24% and 3.10% in average accuracy on 1-shot and 5-shot settings, respectively.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

WeatherGNN: Exploiting Meteo- and Spatial-Dependencies for Local Numerical Weather Prediction Bias-Correction

Due to insufficient local area information, numerical weather prediction (NWP) may yield biases for specific areas. Previous studies correct biases mainly by employing handcrafted features or applying data-driven methods intuitively, overlooking the complicated dependencies between weather factors and between areas. To address this issue, we propose WeatherGNN, a local NWP bias-correction method that utilizes Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to exploit meteorological dependencies and spatial dependencies under the guidance of domain knowledge. Specifically, we introduce a factor GNN to capture area-specific meteorological dependencies adaptively based on spatial heterogeneity and a fast hierarchical GNN to capture dynamic spatial dependencies efficiently guided by Tobler's first and second laws of geography. Our experimental results on two real-world datasets demonstrate that WeatherGNN achieves the state-of-the-art performance, outperforming the best baseline with an average of 4.75 \% on RMSE.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

SLIM: a Scalable Light-weight Root Cause Analysis for Imbalanced Data in Microservice

The newly deployed service -- one kind of change service, could lead to a new type of minority fault. Existing state-of-the-art methods for fault localization rarely consider the imbalanced fault classification in change service. This paper proposes a novel method that utilizes decision rule sets to deal with highly imbalanced data by optimizing the F1 score subject to cardinality constraints. The proposed method greedily generates the rule with maximal marginal gain and uses an efficient minorize-maximization (MM) approach to select rules iteratively, maximizing a non-monotone submodular lower bound. Compared with existing fault localization algorithms, our algorithm can adapt to the imbalanced fault scenario of change service, and provide interpretable fault causes which are easy to understand and verify. Our method can also be deployed in the online training setting, with only about 15% training overhead compared to the current SOTA methods. Empirical studies showcase that our algorithm outperforms existing fault localization algorithms in both accuracy and model interpretability.

cs.SE↗

arXiv2024

BayOTIDE: Bayesian Online Multivariate Time series Imputation with functional decomposition

In real-world scenarios like traffic and energy, massive time-series data with missing values and noises are widely observed, even sampled irregularly. While many imputation methods have been proposed, most of them work with a local horizon, which means models are trained by splitting the long sequence into batches of fit-sized patches. This local horizon can make models ignore global trends or periodic patterns. More importantly, almost all methods assume the observations are sampled at regular time stamps, and fail to handle complex irregular sampled time series arising from different applications. Thirdly, most existing methods are learned in an offline manner. Thus, it is not suitable for many applications with fast-arriving streaming data. To overcome these limitations, we propose BayOTIDE: Bayesian Online Multivariate Time series Imputation with functional decomposition. We treat the multivariate time series as the weighted combination of groups of low-rank temporal factors with different patterns. We apply a group of Gaussian Processes (GPs) with different kernels as functional priors to fit the factors. For computational efficiency, we further convert the GPs into a state-space prior by constructing an equivalent stochastic differential equation (SDE), and developing a scalable algorithm for online inference. The proposed method can not only handle imputation over arbitrary time stamps, but also offer uncertainty quantification and interpretability for the downstream application. We evaluate our method on both synthetic and real-world datasets.We release the code at {https://github.com/xuangu-fang/BayOTIDE}

cs.LG↗