arXiv subjects

Likun Zhang

Publications and source records attributed to Likun Zhang.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Spatial Extremes at Scale: A Case Study of Surface Skin Temperature and Heat Risk in the United States

Understanding and mapping extreme heat is critical for risk management and public health planning, particularly in regions with complex terrain and heterogeneous climate. We present a case study of extreme heat in the Four Corners region of the United States, using high-resolution surface skin temperature data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System to characterize spatially heterogeneous and seasonally varying extremes across complex terrain, and to assess their implications for heat-related public health risks. Spatial extremes exhibit complex dependencies across geographic regions, which require sophisticated statistical models to capture. While recent advances in spatial extreme value modeling provide flexible representations of joint tail dependencies, statistical inference remains computationally demanding, especially for datasets with a large number of locations. To address this, we propose a random scale mixture process that facilitates Bayesian inference of spatial extremes, and develop scalable inference strategies that leverage advances in spatial modeling and amortized learning. We evaluate the proposed inference methods through large-scale simulation studies, representing the first such extensive study in spatial extremes, and a high-resolution surface skin temperature application in the Four Corners region. Surface skin temperature is particularly useful as a predictor for air temperature, for studying heatwaves and related environmental phenomena, and to calculate heat indices reflecting downstream health risks at any location. Our findings provide insights into efficient, data-driven approaches for modeling spatial extremes, and serve as guidelines for practitioners in the fields of climate science, environmental risk assessment, and beyond.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

Nexus: Transparent I/O Offloading for High-Density Serverless Computing

Serverless computing relies on extreme multi-tenancy to remain economically viable, driving providers to rely on virtual machines (VMs) that ensure strong isolation and seamless ecosystem compatibility with the FaaS programming model. However, current architectures tightly couple application processing logic with I/O processing, forcing every VM to duplicate a heavy communication fabric (cloud SDK, RPC, and TCP/IP). Our analysis reveals this duplication consumes over 25% of a function's memory footprint, and may double the CPU cycles in VMs compared to bare-metal execution. While prior systems attempt to solve this using WebAssembly or library OSes, they naively sacrifice ecosystem compatibility, forcing developers to migrate code and dependencies to new languages. We introduce Nexus, a serverless-native KVM-based hypervisor that transparently decouples compute from I/O. Nexus shifts the execution model by intercepting communication fabric at the API boundary and offloading it to an always-on host shared backend via zero-copy shared memory. This removes the heavyweight communication fabric from the guest VM, while preserving the conventional serverless programming model. By structurally separating these domains, Nexus unlocks asynchronous I/O optimizations: overlapping input payload prefetching with VM restoration from a snapshot and writing output payloads back to storage off the critical path. Compared to the production baseline, Nexus reduces overall node-level CPU and memory consumption by up to 44% and 31%, respectively, thus increasing deployment density by 37%. Also, Nexus reduces warm- and cold-start latency by 39% and 10%, respectively, bringing the response time within 20% of that of a WASM-based, ecosystem-incompatible hypervisor.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2026

Log-Laplace Nuggets for Fully Bayesian Fitting of Spatial Extremes Models to Threshold Exceedances

Flexible random scale-mixture models provide a framework for capturing a broad range of extremal dependence structures. However, likelihood-based inference under the peaks-over-threshold setting is often computationally infeasible, due to the censored likelihood requiring repeated evaluation of high-dimensional Gaussian distribution functions. We propose a multiplicative log-Laplace nugget that yields conditional independence in the censored likelihood, resulting in a joint likelihood function that is the product of univariate densities which are available in closed form. This eliminates multivariate Gaussian distribution function evaluations and thereby enables inference for threshold exceedances in high dimensions, which represents a major shift for spatial extremes modelling as the total computational cost is now primarily driven by standard spatial statistics operations. We further show that a broad class of scale-mixture processes augmented with the proposed nugget preserves the extremal dependence structure of the underlying smooth process. The proposed methodology is illustrated through simulation studies and an application to precipitation extremes.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Covariance-Driven Regression Trees: Reducing Overfitting in CART

Decision trees are powerful machine learning algorithms, widely used in fields such as economics and medicine for their simplicity and interpretability. However, decision trees such as CART are prone to overfitting, especially when grown deep or the sample size is small. Conventional methods to reduce overfitting include pre-pruning and post-pruning, which constrain the growth of uninformative branches. In this paper, we propose a complementary approach by introducing a covariance-driven splitting criterion for regression trees (CovRT). This method is more robust to overfitting than the empirical risk minimization criterion used in CART, as it produces more balanced and stable splits and more effectively identifies covariates with true signals. We establish an oracle inequality of CovRT and prove that its predictive accuracy is comparable to that of CART in high-dimensional settings. We find that CovRT achieves superior prediction accuracy compared to CART in both simulations and real-world tasks.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Modeling Spatio-temporal Extremes via Conditional Variational Autoencoders

Extreme weather events are widely studied in fields such as agriculture, ecology, and meteorology. The spatio-temporal co-occurrence of extreme events can strengthen or weaken under changing climate conditions. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to model spatio-temporal extremes by integrating climate indices via a conditional variational autoencoder (cXVAE). A convolutional neural network (CNN) is embedded in the decoder to convolve climatological indices with the spatial dependence within the latent space, thereby allowing the decoder to be dependent on the climate variables. There are three main contributions here. First, we demonstrate through extensive simulations that the proposed conditional XVAE accurately emulates spatial fields and recovers spatially and temporally varying extremal dependence with very low computational cost post training. Second, we provide a simple, scalable approach to detecting condition-driven shifts and whether the dependence structure is invariant to the conditioning variable. Third, when dependence is found to be condition-sensitive, the conditional XVAE supports counterfactual experiments allowing intervention on the climate covariate and propagating the associated change through the learned decoder to quantify differences in joint tail risk, co-occurrence ranges, and return metrics. To demonstrate the practical utility and performance of the model in real-world scenarios, we apply our method to analyze the monthly maximum Fire Weather Index (FWI) over eastern Australia from 2014 to 2024 conditioned on the El Ni\~{n}o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Spatial scale-aware tail dependence modeling for high-dimensional spatial extremes

Extreme events over large spatial domains may exhibit highly heterogeneous tail dependence characteristics, yet most existing spatial extremes models yield only one dependence class over the entire spatial domain. To accurately characterize "data-level dependence'' in analysis of extreme events, we propose a mixture model that achieves flexible dependence properties and allows high-dimensional inference for extremes of spatial processes. We modify the popular random scale construction that multiplies a Gaussian random field by a single radial variable; we allow the radial variable to vary smoothly across space and add non-stationarity to the Gaussian process. As the level of extremeness increases, this single model exhibits both asymptotic independence at long ranges and either asymptotic dependence or independence at short ranges. We make joint inference on the dependence model and a marginal model using a copula approach within a Bayesian hierarchical model. Three different simulation scenarios show close to nominal frequentist coverage rates. Lastly, we apply the model to a dataset of extreme summertime precipitation over the central United States. We find that the joint tail of precipitation exhibits non-stationary dependence structure that cannot be captured by limiting extreme value models or current state-of-the-art sub-asymptotic models.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Wireless Laser Power Transfer for Low-altitude Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle-assisted Internet of Things: Paradigms, Challenges, and Solutions

Low-altitude uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) have become integral enablers for the Internet of Things (IoT) by offering enhanced coverage, improved connectivity and access to remote areas. A critical challenge limiting their operational capacity lies in the energy constraints of both aerial platforms and ground-based sensors. This paper explores WLPT as a transformative solution for sustainable energy provisioning in UAV-assisted IoT networks. We first systematically investigate the fundamental principles of WLPT and analysis the comparative advantages. Then, we introduce three operational paradigms for system integration, identify key challenges, and discuss corresponding potential solutions. In case study, we propose a multi-agent reinforcement learning framework to address the coordination and optimization challenges in WLPT-enabled UAV-assisted IoT data collection. Simulation results demonstrate that our framework significantly improves energy sustainability and data freshness. Finally, we discuss some future directions.

cs.NI↗

arXiv2025

Modeling high and low extremes with a novel dynamic spatio-temporal model

Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the underlying mechanisms and enhance informed decision-making, a flexible model capable of accommodating extremes is necessary. Existing dynamic spatio-temporal statistical models exhibit limitations in capturing extremes when assuming Gaussian error distributions, whereas the current models for spatial extremes mostly assume temporal independence and are focused on joint upper tails at two or more locations. Here, we introduce a new class of dynamic spatio-temporal models that capture both high and low extremes using a mixture of heavy- and light-tailed distributions with varying tail indices. Our framework flexibly identifies extremal dependence and independence in both space and time with uncertainty quantification and supports missing data prediction, as in other dynamic spatio-temporal models. We demonstrate its effectiveness using a large reanalysis dataset of hourly particulate matter in the Central United States.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Age of Information Optimization in Laser-charged UAV-assisted IoT Networks: A Multi-agent Deep Reinforcement Learning Method

The integration of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) with Internet of Things (IoT) networks offers promising solutions for efficient data collection. However, the limited energy capacity of UAVs remains a significant challenge. In this case, laser beam directors (LBDs) have emerged as an effective technology for wireless charging of UAVs during operation, thereby enabling sustained data collection without frequent returns to charging stations (CSs). In this work, we investigate the age of information (AoI) optimization in LBD-powered UAV-assisted IoT networks, where multiple UAVs collect data from distributed IoTs while being recharged by laser beams. We formulate a joint optimization problem that aims to minimize the peak AoI while determining optimal UAV trajectories and laser charging strategies. This problem is particularly challenging due to its non-convex nature, complex temporal dependencies, and the need to balance data collection efficiency with energy consumption constraints. To address these challenges, we propose a novel multi-agent proximal policy optimization with temporal memory and multi-agent coordination (MAPPO-TM) framework. Specifically, MAPPO-TM incorporates temporal memory mechanisms to capture the dynamic nature of UAV operations and facilitates effective coordination among multiple UAVs through decentralized learning while considering global system objectives. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed MAPPO-TM algorithm outperforms conventional approaches in terms of peak AoI minimization and energy efficiency. Ideally, the proposed algorithm achieves up to 15.1% reduction in peak AoI compared to conventional multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (MADRL) methods.

cs.NI↗

arXiv2025

Modeling Surface Wave Propagation over Meniscus and Scattering by a Surface-piercing Barrier

Recent experiments have revealed that the meniscus formed near a surface-piercing barrier can significantly alter the propagation and scattering of capillary-gravity surface waves, beyond what classic flat-surface models predict. In particular, wave transmission increases as the barrier pulls up the meniscus, then drops sharply if the barrier is raised further, overturning the meniscus. Motivated by these findings, this paper develops two linearized theoretical frameworks that incorporate meniscus geometry and pinned contact line conditions into capillary-gravity wave propagation and scattering. Model~1 assumes a vertical wave perturbation of the unperturbed meniscus, thereby extending classic flat-surface boundary conditions in a relatively straightforward manner. Model~2 takes a more comprehensive approach, defining surface wave perturbations normal to the curved meniscus and reparameterizing boundary conditions in terms of arc length. While Model~1 proves convenient mathematically, it is restricted to single-valued meniscus shapes. By contrast, Model~2 is capable of describing multi-valued or overturning free surfaces, thereby capturing a wider range of physically realistic scenarios. Numerical simulations based on both models reproduce the experimental observations on how wave transmission varies with changes in meniscus height and contact angles as the barrier is lifted, underscoring the critical influence of meniscus curvature in small-scale wave-structure interactions. These results establish a robust theoretical foundation for predicting and optimizing capillary-gravity wave scattering in microfluidic, industrial, and scientific applications.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2025

Scattering of Capillary-Gravity Waves by a Fixed, Semi-immersed Cylindrical Barrier with Contact Line Dissipation

The scattering of surface waves by structures intersecting liquid surfaces is fundamental in fluid mechanics, with prior studies exploring gravity, capillary, and capillary-gravity wave interactions. This paper develops a semi-analytical framework for capillary-gravity wave scattering by a fixed, horizontally placed, semi-immersed cylindrical barrier. Assuming linearized potential flow, the problem is formulated with differential equations, conformal mapping, and Fourier transforms, resulting in a compound integral equation framework solved numerically via the Nystr\"om method. An effective-slip dynamic contact line model accounting for viscous dissipation links contact line velocity to deviations from equilibrium contact angles, with fixed and free contact lines of no dissipation as limiting cases. The framework computes transmission and reflection coefficients as functions of the Bond number, slip coefficient, and barrier radius, validating energy conservation and confirming a $90^\circ$ phase difference between transmission and reflection in specific limits. A closed-form solution for scattering by an infinitesimal barrier, derived using Fourier transforms, reveals spatial symmetry in the diffracted field, reduced transmission transitioning from gravity to capillary waves, and peak contact line dissipation when the slip coefficient matches the capillary wave phase speed. This dissipation, linked to impedance matching at the contact lines, persists across a range of barrier sizes. These results advance theoretical insights into surface-tension-dominated fluid mechanics, offering a robust theoretical framework for analyzing wave scattering and comparison with future experimental and numerical studies.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2025

Meniscus-Driven Modulation of Surface Wave Transmission Across Barriers

Meniscus oscillations at interfaces between liquids, solids, and air significantly impact fluid dynamics and control. While idealized models exist, experimental data on capillary-gravity wave scattering involving meniscus effects remain limited. In this study, we systematically measured wave transmission past a surface-piercing barrier, focusing on meniscus and contact-line effects. By varying the barrier's surface properties and the wave frequencies, we explored how meniscus deformation influences wave transmission. The results are compared with simulations and limiting-case theories. We find that the meniscus water column beneath the barrier enhances coupling and increases transmission, while surface bending suppresses it by constraining motion. These competing effects explain the observed frequency and contact angle dependencies. Our findings provide insights into how meniscus dynamics govern surface wave behavior.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2025

AutoMR: A Universal Time Series Motion Recognition Pipeline

In this paper, we present an end-to-end automated motion recognition (AutoMR) pipeline designed for multimodal datasets. The proposed framework seamlessly integrates data preprocessing, model training, hyperparameter tuning, and evaluation, enabling robust performance across diverse scenarios. Our approach addresses two primary challenges: 1) variability in sensor data formats and parameters across datasets, which traditionally requires task-specific machine learning implementations, and 2) the complexity and time consumption of hyperparameter tuning for optimal model performance. Our library features an all-in-one solution incorporating QuartzNet as the core model, automated hyperparameter tuning, and comprehensive metrics tracking. Extensive experiments demonstrate its effectiveness on 10 diverse datasets, achieving state-of-the-art performance. This work lays a solid foundation for deploying motion-capture solutions across varied real-world applications.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Capturing Extreme Events in Turbulence using an Extreme Variational Autoencoder (xVAE)

Turbulent flow fields are characterized by extreme events that are statistically intermittent and carry a significant amount of energy and physical importance. To emulate these flows, we introduce the extreme variational Autoencoder (xVAE), which embeds a max-infinitely divisible process with heavy-tailed distributions into a standard VAE framework, enabling accurate modeling of extreme events. xVAEs are neural network models that reduce system dimensionality by learning non-linear latent representations of data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of xVAE in large-eddy simulation data of wildland fire plumes, where intense heat release and complex plume-atmosphere interactions generate extreme turbulence. Comparisons with the commonly used Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) modes show that xVAE is more robust in capturing extreme values and provides a powerful uncertainty quantification framework using variational Bayes. Additionally, xVAE enables analysis of the so-called copulas of fields to assess risks associated with rare events while rigorously accounting for uncertainty, such as simultaneous exceedances of high thresholds across multiple locations. The proposed approach provides a new direction for studying realistic turbulent flows, such as high-speed aerodynamics, space propulsion, and atmospheric and oceanic systems that are characterized by extreme events.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2025

Data-driven upper bounds and event attribution for unprecedented heatwaves

The last decade has seen numerous record-shattering heatwaves in all corners of the globe. In the aftermath of these devastating events, there is interest in identifying worst-case thresholds or upper bounds that quantify just how hot temperatures can become. Generalized Extreme Value theory provides a data-driven estimate of extreme thresholds; however, upper bounds may be exceeded by future events, which undermines attribution and planning for heatwave impacts. Here, we show how the occurrence and relative probability of observed events that exceed a priori upper bound estimates, so-called "impossible" temperatures, has changed over time. We find that many unprecedented events are actually within data-driven upper bounds, but only when using modern spatial statistical methods. Furthermore, there are clear connections between anthropogenic forcing and the "impossibility" of the most extreme temperatures. Robust understanding of heatwave thresholds provides critical information about future record-breaking events and how their extremity relates to historical measurements.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2024

Flexible and efficient emulation of spatial extremes processes via variational autoencoders

Many real-world processes have complex tail dependence structures that cannot be characterized using classical Gaussian processes. More flexible spatial extremes models exhibit appealing extremal dependence properties but are often exceedingly prohibitive to fit and simulate from in high dimensions. In this paper, we aim to push the boundaries on computation and modeling of high-dimensional spatial extremes via integrating a new spatial extremes model that has flexible and non-stationary dependence properties in the encoding-decoding structure of a variational autoencoder called the XVAE. The XVAE can emulate spatial observations and produce outputs that have the same statistical properties as the inputs, especially in the tail. Our approach also provides a novel way of making fast inference with complex extreme-value processes. Through extensive simulation studies, we show that our XVAE is substantially more time-efficient than traditional Bayesian inference while outperforming many spatial extremes models with a stationary dependence structure. Lastly, we analyze a high-resolution satellite-derived dataset of sea surface temperature in the Red Sea, which includes 30 years of daily measurements at 16703 grid cells. We demonstrate how to use XVAE to identify regions susceptible to marine heatwaves under climate change and examine the spatial and temporal variability of the extremal dependence structure.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Training Data Attribution: Was Your Model Secretly Trained On Data Created By Mine?

The emergence of text-to-image models has recently sparked significant interest, but the attendant is a looming shadow of potential infringement by violating the user terms. Specifically, an adversary may exploit data created by a commercial model to train their own without proper authorization. To address such risk, it is crucial to investigate the attribution of a suspicious model's training data by determining whether its training data originates, wholly or partially, from a specific source model. To trace the generated data, existing methods require applying extra watermarks during either the training or inference phases of the source model. However, these methods are impractical for pre-trained models that have been released, especially when model owners lack security expertise. To tackle this challenge, we propose an injection-free training data attribution method for text-to-image models. It can identify whether a suspicious model's training data stems from a source model, without additional modifications on the source model. The crux of our method lies in the inherent memorization characteristic of text-to-image models. Our core insight is that the memorization of the training dataset is passed down through the data generated by the source model to the model trained on that data, making the source model and the infringing model exhibit consistent behaviors on specific samples. Therefore, our approach involves developing algorithms to uncover these distinct samples and using them as inherent watermarks to verify if a suspicious model originates from the source model. Our experiments demonstrate that our method achieves an accuracy of over 80\% in identifying the source of a suspicious model's training data, without interfering the original training or generation process of the source model.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

CoAst: Validation-Free Contribution Assessment for Federated Learning based on Cross-Round Valuation

In the federated learning (FL) process, since the data held by each participant is different, it is necessary to figure out which participant has a higher contribution to the model performance. Effective contribution assessment can help motivate data owners to participate in the FL training. Research works in this field can be divided into two directions based on whether a validation dataset is required. Validation-based methods need to use representative validation data to measure the model accuracy, which is difficult to obtain in practical FL scenarios. Existing validation-free methods assess the contribution based on the parameters and gradients of local models and the global model in a single training round, which is easily compromised by the stochasticity of model training. In this work, we propose CoAst, a practical method to assess the FL participants' contribution without access to any validation data. The core idea of CoAst involves two aspects: one is to only count the most important part of model parameters through a weights quantization, and the other is a cross-round valuation based on the similarity between the current local parameters and the global parameter updates in several subsequent communication rounds. Extensive experiments show that CoAst has comparable assessment reliability to existing validation-based methods and outperforms existing validation-free methods.

cs.LG↗