arXiv subjects

Lingxiao Zhou

Publications and source records attributed to Lingxiao Zhou.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Dynamic Policy Evaluation and Learning with Spatio-temporal Data

Although sequential decision-making is ubiquitous across domains, policy evaluation and learning with spatio-temporal data remain challenging due to spatial spillover and temporal carryover effects. We develop methods for evaluating and learning individualized dynamic policies under spatio-temporal interference. Under a semiparametric additive outcome model that allows for complex spillover and carryover effects, we consider a family of stabilized estimators for evaluating the performance of a given individualized policy. From this family, we select a data-adaptive optimal estimator that minimizes the asymptotic variance. We then derive the asymptotic distribution of the proposed policy evaluation estimator, and establish the finite-sample regret bounds of our policy learning estimator. We further propose a statistical test to select the complexity of the semiparametric additive model by determining the appropriate order of interactions. Through simulations, we assess the finite-sample performance of our estimators and the validity of the proposed test. Our motivating application examines the optimal allocation of economic aid in Iraq from February 2007 to July 2008. Drawing on declassified conflict data, we study the weekly assignment of aid projects across districts and find that reallocating aid away from regions with a persistently high level of violence can substantially reduce insurgent attacks.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects for Spatio-Temporal Causal Inference

Scholars from diverse fields increasingly rely on high-frequency spatio-temporal data. Yet, causal inference with these data remains challenging due to spatial spillover and temporal carryover effects. We develop methods to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects by allowing for arbitrary spatial and temporal causal dependencies. We focus on common settings where the treatment and outcomes are time-varying spatial point patterns and where moderators are either spatial or spatio-temporal variables. We define causal estimands based on stochastic interventions where researchers specify counterfactual distributions of treatment events. We propose the Hajek-type estimator of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) as a function of spatio-temporal moderator variables, and establish its asymptotic normality as the number of time periods increases. We then introduce a statistical test of no heterogeneous treatment effects. Through simulations, we evaluate the finite-sample performance of the proposed CATE estimator and its inferential properties. Our motivating application examines the heterogeneous effects of US airstrikes on insurgent violence in Iraq. Drawing on declassified spatio-temporal data, we examine how prior aid distributions moderate airstrike effects. Contrary to expectations from counterinsurgency theories, we find that prior aid distribution, along with greater amounts of aid per capita, is associated with increased insurgent attacks following airstrikes.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Bayesian inference for aggregated Hawkes processes

The Hawkes process, a self-exciting point process, has a wide range of applications in modeling earthquakes, social networks and stock markets. The established estimation process requires that researchers have access to the exact time stamps and spatial information. However, available data are often rounded or aggregated. We develop a Bayesian estimation procedure for the parameters of a Hawkes process based on aggregated data. Our approach is developed for temporal, spatio-temporal, and mutually exciting Hawkes processes where data are available over discrete time periods and regions. We show theoretically that the parameters of the Hawkes process are identifiable from aggregated data under general specifications. We demonstrate the method on simulated data under various model specifications in the presence of one or more interacting processes, and under varying coarseness of data aggregation. Finally, we examine the internal and cross-excitation effects of airstrikes and insurgent violence events from February 2007 to June 2008, with some data aggregated by day.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Field tunable BKT and quantum phase transitions in spin-1/2 triangular lattice antiferromagnet

Quantum magnetism is one of the most active fields for exploring exotic phases and phase transitions. The recently synthesized Na2BaCo(PO4)2 (NBCP) is an ideal material incarnation of the spin-1/2 easy axis triangular lattice antiferromagnet (TLAF). Experimental evidence shows that NBCP hosts the spin supersolid state with a giant magnetocaloric effect. It was also proposed that the applied magnetic field B can drive the system through Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless (BKT) and other richer quantum phase transitions. However, the detection of these transitions is challenging because they onset at extremely low temperature T at around 60 mK, and the measurement of the magnetic susceptibility of these transitions requires high sensitivity. With the help of our newly developed gradient force magnetometer in a dilution refrigerator, we constructed the contour diagram of the magnetic susceptibility in the B-T phase diagram in T as cold as 30 mK. These results provide a more comprehensive and accurate understanding of the several field-tunable quantum phase transitions and BKT melting of the spin supersolidity, which are especially significant when their giant magnetocaloric effects highlight potential applications for sub-Kelvin refrigeration under concerns about global helium shortages.

cond-mat.str-el↗