arXiv subjects

Lourens J. Waldorp

Publications and source records attributed to Lourens J. Waldorp.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Slow Context, Fast Symptoms: Multiscale Temporal Dynamics and Context-Induced Coupling in Psychological Systems

Psychological dynamics unfold across multiple timescales: symptoms and other psychological states can change rapidly, whereas social, environmental, biological, and developmental conditions often evolve more slowly. We formulate this structure as a stochastic slow-fast system in which binary symptom states form a fast interacting network embedded within a slow contextual field. Pairwise symptom coupling governs interactions within the fast layer, while the contextual field shifts symptom-specific activation tendencies and can itself receive feedback from sustained symptom activation. Simulations show that changes in the slow field can shift the macroscopic activation state of the symptom system even when the underlying interaction matrix remains fixed. Perturbations to the field generate transient increases in symptom activation followed by recovery, while feedback between the fast and slow layers delays recovery and, when sufficiently strong, produces dependence on initial conditions. We further show that when between-person variation in the contextual field is omitted from network estimation, the inferred system exhibits stronger total coupling and nonzero couplings between symptom pairs that are uncoupled in the data-generating model. Thus, slowly varying context can alter both the dynamics and the apparent interaction structure of a fast psychological system. The framework connects psychological network models with slow-fast dynamical systems and provides a formal basis for distinguishing changes in activation from changes in coupling.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

mgm: Estimating Time-Varying Mixed Graphical Models in High-Dimensional Data

We present the R-package mgm for the estimation of k-order Mixed Graphical Models (MGMs) and mixed Vector Autoregressive (mVAR) models in high-dimensional data. These are a useful extensions of graphical models for only one variable type, since data sets consisting of mixed types of variables (continuous, count, categorical) are ubiquitous. In addition, we allow to relax the stationarity assumption of both models by introducing time-varying versions MGMs and mVAR models based on a kernel weighting approach. Time-varying models offer a rich description of temporally evolving systems and allow to identify external influences on the model structure such as the impact of interventions. We provide the background of all implemented methods and provide fully reproducible examples that illustrate how to use the package.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

Network Psychometrics

This chapter provides a general introduction of network modeling in psychometrics. The chapter starts with an introduction to the statistical model formulation of pairwise Markov random fields (PMRF), followed by an introduction of the PMRF suitable for binary data: the Ising model. The Ising model is a model used in ferromagnetism to explain phase transitions in a field of particles. Following the description of the Ising model in statistical physics, the chapter continues to show that the Ising model is closely related to models used in psychometrics. The Ising model can be shown to be equivalent to certain kinds of logistic regression models, loglinear models and multi-dimensional item response theory (MIRT) models. The equivalence between the Ising model and the MIRT model puts standard psychometrics in a new light and leads to a strikingly different interpretation of well-known latent variable models. The chapter gives an overview of methods that can be used to estimate the Ising model, and concludes with a discussion on the interpretation of latent variables given the equivalence between the Ising model and MIRT.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

The Gaussian Graphical Model in Cross-sectional and Time-series Data

We discuss the Gaussian graphical model (GGM; an undirected network of partial correlation coefficients) and detail its utility as an exploratory data analysis tool. The GGM shows which variables predict one-another, allows for sparse modeling of covariance structures, and may highlight potential causal relationships between observed variables. We describe the utility in 3 kinds of psychological datasets: datasets in which consecutive cases are assumed independent (e.g., cross-sectional data), temporally ordered datasets (e.g., n = 1 time series), and a mixture of the 2 (e.g., n > 1 time series). In time-series analysis, the GGM can be used to model the residual structure of a vector-autoregression analysis (VAR), also termed graphical VAR. Two network models can then be obtained: a temporal network and a contemporaneous network. When analyzing data from multiple subjects, a GGM can also be formed on the covariance structure of stationary means---the between-subjects network. We discuss the interpretation of these models and propose estimation methods to obtain these networks, which we implement in the R packages graphicalVAR and mlVAR. The methods are showcased in two empirical examples, and simulation studies on these methods are included in the supplementary materials.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

Network Structure Explains the Impact of Attitudes on Voting Decisions

Attitudes can have a profound impact on socially relevant behaviours, such as voting. However, this effect is not uniform across situations or individuals, and it is at present difficult to predict whether attitudes will predict behaviour in any given circumstance. Using a network model, we demonstrate that (a) more strongly connected attitude networks have a stronger impact on behaviour, and (b) within any given attitude network, the most central attitude elements have the strongest impact. We test these hypotheses using data on voting and attitudes toward presidential candidates in the US presidential elections from 1980 to 2012. These analyses confirm that the predictive value of attitude networks depends almost entirely on their level of connectivity, with more central attitude elements having stronger impact. The impact of attitudes on voting behaviour can thus be reliably determined before elections take place by using network analyses.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Mean field dynamics of graphs I: Evolution of probabilistic cellular automata for random and small-world graphs

It was recently shown how graphs can be used to provide descriptions of psychopathologies, where symptoms of, say, depression, affect each other and certain configurations determine whether someone could fall into a sudden depression. To analyse changes over time and characterise possible future behaviour is rather difficult for large graphs. We describe the dynamics of networks using one-dimensional discrete time dynamical systems theory obtained from a mean field approach to (elementary) probabilistic cellular automata (PCA). Often the mean field approach is used on a regular graph (a grid or torus) where each node has the same number of edges and the same probability of becoming active. We show that we can use variations of the mean field of the grid to describe the dynamics of the PCA on a random and small-world graph. Bifurcation diagrams for the mean field of the grid, random, and small-world graphs indicate possible phase transitions for certain parameter settings. Extensive simulations indicate for different graph sizes (number of nodes) that the mean field approximation is accurate. The mean field approach allows us to provide possible explanations of 'jumping' behaviour in depression.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2016

Unidimensional factor models imply weaker partial correlations than zero-order correlations

In a unidimensional factor model it is assumed that the set of indicators that loads on this factor are conditionally independent given the latent factor. Two indicators are, however, never conditionally independent given (a set of) other indicators that load on this factor, as this would require one of the indicators that is conditioned on to correlate one with the latent factor. Although partial correlations between two indicators given the other indicators can thus never equal zero (Holland and Rosenbaum, 1986), we show in this paper that the partial correlations do need to be always weaker than the zero-order correlations. More precisely, we prove that the partial correlation between two observed variables that load on one factor given all other observed variables that load on this factor, is always closer to zero than the zero-order correlation between these two variables.

math.ST↗

arXiv2015

Structure estimation for mixed graphical models in high-dimensional data

Undirected graphical models are a key component in the analysis of complex observational data in a large variety of disciplines. In many of these applications one is interested in estimating the undirected graphical model underlying a distribution over variables with different domains. Despite the pervasive need for such an estimation method, to date there is no such method that models all variables on their proper domain. We close this methodological gap by combining a new class of mixed graphical models with a structure estimation approach based on generalized covariance matrices. We report the performance of our methods using simulations, illustrate the method with a dataset on Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and provide an implementation as an R-package.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2015

Hidden Multiplicity in Multiway ANOVA: Prevalence and Remedies

Many psychologists do not realize that exploratory use of the popular multiway analysis of variance (ANOVA) harbors a multiple comparison problem. In the case of two factors, three separate null hypotheses are subject to test (i.e., two main effects and one interaction). Consequently, the probability of at least one Type I error (if all null hypotheses are true) is 14% rather than 5% if the three tests are independent. We explain the multiple comparison problem and demonstrate that researchers almost never correct for it. To mitigate the problem, we describe four remedies: the omnibus F test, the control of familywise error rate, the control of false discovery rate, and the preregistration of hypotheses.

stat.AP↗