arXiv subjects

Luca Merlo

Publications and source records attributed to Luca Merlo.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Flavour and Higgs physics in $Z_2$-symmetric 2HD models near the decoupling limit

With no evidence of any exotic particle detected so far beyond the Standard Model, the new physics may lie above the presently accessible energies at colliders and, at low-energies, can be accounted for via an effective description. The interplay of flavour and Higgs physics data allows setting stringent bounds on the parameters of the effective Lagrangian. In this paper, we focus on $Z_2$-symmetric two Higgs doublet models near the decoupling limit: the corresponding effective description relies on only a few parameters, thus predicting many interesting correlations between observables that work as tests of the theory. We present the results of a global fit to the existing data, updating and extending over the past literature. We comment on the triple Higgs coupling as a probe of an extended scalar sector and on the recent CDF II measurement of the $W$-mass.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2023

Estimating causal quantile exposure response functions via matching

We develop new matching estimators for estimating causal quantile exposure-response functions and quantile exposure effects with continuous treatments. We provide identification results for the parameters of interest and establish the asymptotic properties of the derived estimators. We introduce a two-step estimation procedure. In the first step, we construct a matched data set via generalized propensity score matching, adjusting for measured confounding. In the second step, we fit a kernel quantile regression to the matched set. We also derive a consistent estimator of the variance of the matching estimators. Using simulation studies, we compare the introduced approach with existing alternatives in various settings. We apply the proposed method to Medicare claims data for the period 2012-2014, and we estimate the causal effect of exposure to PM$_{2.5}$ on the length of hospital stay for each zip code of the contiguous United States.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Unified unconditional regression for multivariate quantiles, M-quantiles and expectiles

In this paper, we develop a unified regression approach to model unconditional quantiles, M-quantiles and expectiles of multivariate dependent variables exploiting the multidimensional Huber's function. To assess the impact of changes in the covariates across the entire unconditional distribution of the responses, we extend the work of Firpo et al. (2009) by running a mean regression of the recentered influence function on the explanatory variables. We discuss the estimation procedure and establish the asymptotic properties of the derived estimators. A data-driven procedure is also presented to select the tuning constant of the Huber's function. The validity of the proposed methodology is explored with simulation studies and through an application using the Survey of Household Income and Wealth 2016 conducted by the Bank of Italy.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Quantile and expectile copula-based hidden Markov regression models for the analysis of the cryptocurrency market

The role of cryptocurrencies within the financial systems has been expanding rapidly in recent years among investors and institutions. It is therefore crucial to investigate the phenomena and develop statistical methods able to capture their interrelationships, the links with other global systems, and, at the same time, the serial heterogeneity. For these reasons, this paper introduces hidden Markov regression models for jointly estimating quantiles and expectiles of cryptocurrency returns using regime-switching copulas. The proposed approach allows us to focus on extreme returns and describe their temporal evolution by introducing time-dependent coefficients evolving according to a latent Markov chain. Moreover to model their time-varying dependence structure, we consider elliptical copula functions defined by state-specific parameters. Maximum likelihood estimates are obtained via an Expectation-Maximization algorithm. The empirical analysis investigates the relationship between daily returns of five cryptocurrencies and major world market indices.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

The Low-Scale Seesaw Solution to the $M_W$ and $(g-2)_μ$ Anomalies

The recent CDF-II measurement of the $W$-boson mass shows a strong tension with the corresponding Standard Model prediction. Once active neutrino masses are explained in the context of the Low-Scale Seesaw mechanisms, this tension can be resolved. We investigate the possibility of explaining the longstanding muon anomalous magnetic moment anomaly within the same frameworks. We present a simplified extension of the Standard Model, accounting only for the second lepton generation, that describes a massive active neutrino and provides a combined solution to these anomalies. The model is renormalisable and introduces in the spectrum, beyond the sterile species of the Low-Scale Seesaw mechanism, only one pair of exotic vector-like leptons, doublets under the electroweak symmetry. We moreover discuss the extension of this model to the realistic three-family case.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2023

Probing HNL-ALP couplings at colliders

Axion-like particles (ALPs) and heavy neutral leptons (HNLs) are both well-motivated extensions of the Standard Model. As ALPs couple to on-shell fermions proportionally to their masses, processes involving both types of particles may give rise, for TeV HNLs, to relevant phenomenology at colliders. In this work, we point out a particularly clean process, whose final state consists of four jets and two charged leptons, and we estimate its current and future sensitivity at the LHC. For on-shell HNLs, i) there is no dependence on the overall scale of the mixing between HNLs and the active neutrinos, making this process sensitive down to the type-I Seesaw line; ii) the signal strength of the process is sizable only as far as the HNL masses are below a few TeVs, contrary to what the proportionality to masses of the ALP couplings may suggest. Although ALPs and HNLs have been mainly studied independently in the literature, considering their interplay may lead to joint limits that are much stronger than those on the individual particles taken separately. This concise study paves the way for similar searches at colliders and other experiments.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2022

Inter-order relations between moments of a Student $t$ distribution, with an application to $L_p$-quantiles

This paper introduces inter-order formulas for partial and complete moments of a Student $t$ distribution with $n$ degrees of freedom. We show how the partial moment of order $n - j$ about any real value $m$ can be expressed in terms of the partial moment of order $j - 1$ for $j$ in $\{1,\dots, n \}$. Closed form expressions for the complete moments are also established. We then focus on $L_p$-quantiles, which represent a class of generalized quantiles defined through an asymmetric $p$-power loss function. Based on the results obtained, we also show that for a Student $t$ distribution the $L_{n-j+1}$-quantile and the $L_j$-quantile coincide at any confidence level $τ$ in $(0, 1)$.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Dynamical Minimal Flavour Violating Inverse Seesaw

The Inverse Seesaw mechanism is dynamically realised within the Minimal Lepton Flavour Violation context. Lepton number, whose breaking is spontaneously realised, is generalised to a global Abelian factor of the whole flavour symmetry, that also plays the role of the Peccei-Quinn symmetry. The associated Goldstone boson is a Majoraxion that solves the Strong CP problem and represents a Dark Matter candidate. Three distinct scenarios are identified in terms of flavour symmetry and transformation properties of the exotic neutral leptons that enrich the Standard Model spectrum. The associated phenomenology is studied, focusing on the deviations from unitarity of the PMNS mixing matrix. The strongest constraints arise from the determination of the number of active neutrinos through the invisible width of the $Z$, the comparison of the measured $W$ boson mass with its prediction in terms of the Fermi constant from muon decay, and the null searches for the radiative rare muon decay and $μ\to e$ conversion in nuclei. The heavy neutral leptons may have masses of a few TeV, leaving open the possibility for a direct detection at future colliders. The impact of the recent measurement of the $W$ mass at the CDF II detector has also been considered, which, in one of the scenarios, points to a sharp prediction for the masses of the heavy neutral leptons at about $2-3$ TeV.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2021

Quantile Mixed Hidden Markov Models for multivariate longitudinal data

The identification of factors associated with mental and behavioral disorders in early childhood is critical both for psychopathology research and the support of primary health care practices. Motivated by the Millennium Cohort Study, in this paper we study the effect of a comprehensive set of covariates on children's emotional and behavioural trajectories in England. To this end, we develop a Quantile Mixed Hidden Markov Model for joint estimation of multiple quantiles in a linear regression setting for multivariate longitudinal data. The novelty of the proposed approach is based on the Multivariate Asymmetric Laplace distribution which allows to jointly estimate the quantiles of the univariate conditional distributions of a multivariate response, accounting for possible correlation between the outcomes. Sources of unobserved heterogeneity and serial dependency due to repeated measures are modeled through the introduction of individual-specific, time-constant random coefficients and time-varying parameters evolving over time with a Markovian structure, respectively. The inferential approach is carried out through the construction of a suitable Expectation-Maximization algorithm without parametric assumptions on the random effects distribution.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Forecasting VaR and ES using a joint quantile regression and implications in portfolio allocation

In this paper we propose a multivariate quantile regression framework to forecast Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of multiple financial assets simultaneously, extending Taylor (2019). We generalize the Multivariate Asymmetric Laplace (MAL) joint quantile regression of Petrella and Raponi (2019) to a time-varying setting, which allows us to specify a dynamic process for the evolution of both VaR and ES of each asset. The proposed methodology accounts for the dependence structure among asset returns. By exploiting the properties of the MAL distribution, we then propose a new portfolio optimization method that minimizes the portfolio risk and controls for well-known characteristics of financial data. We evaluate the advantages of the proposed approach on both simulated and real data, using weekly returns on three major stock market indices. We show that our method outperforms other existing models and provides more accurate risk measure forecasts compared to univariate ones.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2020

Production of Thermal Axions across the ElectroWeak Phase Transition

Light axions can potentially leave a cosmic background, just like neutrinos. We complete the study of thermal axion production across the electroweak scale by providing a smooth and continuous treatment through the two phases. Focusing on both flavor conserving and violating couplings to third generation quarks, we compute the amount of axions produced via scatterings and decays of thermal bath particles. We perform a model independent analysis in terms of axion effective couplings, and we also make predictions for specific microscopic QCD axion scenarios. This observable effect, parameterized as it is conventional by an effective number of additional neutrinos, is above the $1σ$ sensitivity of future CMB-S4 surveys. Moreover, if one assumes no large hierarchies among dimensionless axion couplings to standard model particles, future axion helioscopes will provide a complementary probe for the parameter region we study.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2020

Cosmic Imprints of XENON1T Axions

The recent electron recoil excess observed by XENON1T has a possible interpretation in terms of solar axions coupled to electrons. If such axions are still relativistic at recombination they would also leave a cosmic imprint in the form of an additional radiation component, parameterized by an effective neutrino number $ΔN_\text{eff}$. We explore minimal scenarios with a detectable signal in future CMB surveys: axions coupled democratically to all fermions, axion-electron coupling generated radiatively, the DFSZ framework for the QCD axion. The predicted $ΔN_\text{eff}$ is larger than $0.03-0.04$ for all cases, close to the $2σ$ forecasted sensitivity of CMB-S4 experiments. This opens the possibility of testing with cosmological observations the solar axion interpretation of the XENON1T excess.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2020

A two-part finite mixture quantile regression model for semi-continuous longitudinal data

This paper develops a two-part finite mixture quantile regression model for semi-continuous longitudinal data. The proposed methodology allows heterogeneity sources that influence the model for the binary response variable, to influence also the distribution of the positive outcomes. As is common in the quantile regression literature, estimation and inference on the model parameters are based on the Asymmetric Laplace distribution. Maximum likelihood estimates are obtained through the EM algorithm without parametric assumptions on the random effects distribution. In addition, a penalized version of the EM algorithm is presented to tackle the problem of variable selection. The proposed statistical method is applied to the well-known RAND Health Insurance Experiment dataset which gives further insights on its empirical behavior.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

The Data Driven Flavour Model

A bottom-up approach has been adopted to identify a flavour model that agrees with present experimental measurements. The charged fermion mass hierarchies suggest that only the top Yukawa term should be present at the renormalisable level. The flavour symmetry of the Lagrangian including the fermionic kinetic terms and only the top Yukawa is then a combination of U (2) and U(3) factors. Lighter charged fermion and active neutrino masses and quark and lepton mixings arise considering specific spurion fields. The associated phenomenology is investigated and the model turns out to have almost the same flavour protection of the Minimal Flavour Violation, in both quark and lepton sectors. Promoting the spurions to be dynamical fields, the associated scalar potential is also studied and a minimum is identified such that fermion masses and mixings are correctly reproduced.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2020

Transmission Line Pulse (TLP) as integrative method for the investigation of ultra-fast trapping mechanisms on high-k MIM

This paper discusses the transmission line pulse (TLP) analysis, generally used for electrostatic discharge (ESD) device characterization, as high potential usable tool also for non-ESD structures. TLP technique, combined with DC and pulsed I-V characterization, is performed to study the contribution of trap states on current conduction in metal-insulator-metal (MIM) capacitors with an HfAlO stack. The importance of the above mentioned methods is demonstrated by comparing two generations of samples with slightly different charge trapping mechanisms; their impact on the current conduction is furthermore studied by decreasing the pulse width down to 50nsec. TLP analysis is finally discussed as interesting method to investigate the influence of trap states on the device robustness. The evaluation of breakdown voltage for different time pulses allows to discriminate whether different failure mechanisms occur or not and to establish the impact of trap states on short-term reliability.

physics.app-ph↗

arXiv2019

Testable Axion-Like Particles In The Minimal Linear σ Model

Axion and axion-like particle models are typically affected by a strong fine-tuning problem in conceiving the electroweak and the Peccei-Quinn breaking scales. Within the context of the Minimal Linear σ Model, axion-like particle constructions are identified where this hierarchy problem is solved, accounting for a TeV Peccei-Quinn breaking scale and a pseudoscalar particle with a mass larger than 10 MeV. Potential signatures at colliders and B-factories are discussed.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2017

Baryon Non-Invariant Couplings in Higgs Effective Field Theory

The basis of leading operators which are not invariant under baryon number is constructed within the Higgs Effective Field Theory. This list contains 12 dimension six operators, which preserve the combination B-L, to be compared to only 6 operators for the Standard Model Effective Field Theory. The discussion on the independent flavour contractions is presented in detail for a generic number of fermion families adopting the Hilbert series technique.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2015

On Continuous Flavour Symmetries for Neutrinos

Flavour symmetries are fundamental tools in the search for an explanation to the flavour puzzle: fermion mass hierarchies, the neutrino mass ordering, the differences between the mixing matrices in the quark and lepton sector, can all find an explanation in models where the fermion generations undergo specific geometric relations. An overview on the implementation of continuous symmetries in the flavour sector is presented here, focussing on the lepton sector.

hep-ph↗