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Luca Rossini

Publications and source records attributed to Luca Rossini.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Learning Fault-Tolerant Locomotion with Adaptive Gait Timing

Hardware failures require legged robots to rapidly reorganize coordination and gait timing to maintain stability and mobility. This is particularly challenging for larger quadrupeds, where increased mass and tighter actuation limits reduce the feasibility of aggressive, high-frequency compensation strategies often observed on smaller platforms. In this work, we propose a deep reinforcement learning approach for fault-tolerant locomotion under actuator power loss. The method employs an asymmetric actor-critic architecture in which the critic has access to privileged information during training, while the actor learns to reconstruct a corresponding latent representation from proprioceptive observations. We introduce a latent-alignment loss that encourages consistency between actor and critic representations. Additionally, we augment the action space with a learnable gait frequency parameter, enabling adaptive gait timing in response to terrain variations and actuator degradation without predefined faulty-leg strategies. The approach is validated in high-fidelity simulation on uneven terrain and real-world experiments on flat ground using a 68 kg quadruped robot.

cs.RO

Infinite hidden Markov models for cylindrical data

We propose an infinite hidden Markov model for cylindrical time series with von Mises-Gamma emissions. Posterior inference is performed using a beam sampler combining conjugate updates and approximate sampling schemes. Simulation studies and two real data applications demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

stat.ME

KYON: Semi-Modular Wheel-Legged Quadruped With Agile Bimanual Capability

This paper presents KYON, a hybrid wheel-legged quadruped robot equipped with a bimanual upper body for loco-manipulation tasks. The platform features a semi-modular design with a reconfigurable lower legs, enabling both wheeled and legged locomotion depending on the environment. A design approach that places actuators in the base and uses transmission mechanisms reduces distal inertia, improving agility and dynamic performance. The robot integrates a whole-body control framework together with a reinforcement learning based policy to handle nonlinear dynamics and enhance robustness to disturbances for the execution of locomotion and manipulation tasks, independently. Experimental results demonstrate effective dynamic locomotion and bimanual manipulation, validating the platform's capability to operate in complex and unstructured scenarios.

cs.RO

Quantifying Demand Shocks in the Green and Digital Transition

We use web search data to construct monthly indexes of derived demand for cobalt, copper, and nickel, which are key inputs in technologies driving the energy and digital transitions. We incorporate these indexes into Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models of global metal markets and identify structural shocks using zero, sign, and magnitude restrictions. This approach disentangles supply shocks from several demand-side drivers of metal prices and isolates a transition demand (TD) shock linked to the diffusion of metal-intensive technologies. We find that TD shocks generate persistent price effects, especially for copper and nickel, whereas supply and metal-specific demand shocks are more immediate and less persistent.

econ.EM

RL-Augmented MPC for Non-Gaited Legged and Hybrid Locomotion

We propose a contact-explicit hierarchical architecture coupling Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Model Predictive Control (MPC), where a high-level RL agent provides gait and navigation commands to a low-level locomotion MPC. This offloads the combinatorial burden of contact timing from the MPC by learning acyclic gaits through trial and error in simulation. We show that only a minimal set of rewards and limited tuning are required to obtain effective policies. We validate the architecture in simulation across robotic platforms spanning 50 kg to 120 kg and different MPC implementations, observing the emergence of acyclic gaits and timing adaptations in flat-terrain legged and hybrid locomotion, and further demonstrating extensibility to non-flat terrains. Across all platforms, we achieve zero-shot sim-to-sim transfer without domain randomization, and we further demonstrate zero-shot sim-to-real transfer without domain randomization on Centauro, our 120 kg wheeled-legged humanoid robot. We make our software framework and evaluation results publicly available at https://github.com/AndrePatri/AugMPC.

cs.RO

Model selection confidence sets for time series models with applications to electricity load data

This paper studies the Model Selection Confidence Set (MSCS) methodology for univariate time series models involving autoregressive and moving average components, and applies it to study model selection uncertainty in the Italian electricity load data. Rather than relying on a single model selected by an arbitrary criterion, the MSCS identifies a set of models that are statistically indistinguishable from the true data-generating process at a given confidence level. The size and composition of this set reveal crucial information about model selection uncertainty: noisy data scenarios produce larger sets with many candidate models, while more informative cases narrow the set considerably. To study the importance of each model term, we consider numerical statistics measuring the frequency with which each term is included in both the entire MSCS and in Lower Boundary Models (LBM), its most parsimonious specifications. Applied to Italian hourly electricity load data, the MSCS methodology reveals marked intraday variation in model selection uncertainty and isolates a collection of model specifications that deliver competitive short-term forecasts while highlighting key drivers of electricity load like intraday hourly lags, temperature, calendar effects and solar energy generation.

econ.EM

Bayesian Markov-Switching Partial Reduced-Rank Regression

Reduced-Rank (RR) regression is a powerful dimensionality reduction technique but it overlooks any possible group configuration among the responses by assuming a low-rank structure on the entire coefficient matrix. Moreover, the temporal change of the relations between predictors and responses in time series induce a possibly time-varying grouping structure in the responses. To address these limitations, a Bayesian Markov-switching partial RR (MS-PRR) model is proposed, where the response vector is partitioned in two groups to reflect different complexity of the relationship. A \textit{simple} group assumes a low-rank linear regression, while a \textit{complex} group exploits nonparametric regression via a Gaussian Process. Differently from traditional approaches, group assignments and rank are treated as unknown parameters to be estimated. Then temporal persistence in the regression function is accounted for by a Markov-switching process that drives the changes in the grouping structure and model parameters over time. Full Bayesian inference is preformed via a partially collapsed Gibbs sampler, which allows uncertainty quantification without the need for trans-dimensional moves. Applications to two real-world macroeconomic and commodity data demonstrate the evidence of time-varying grouping and different degrees of complexity both across states and within each state.

stat.ME

A Real-Time Framework for Forecasting Metal Prices

This paper develops a real-time forecasting framework for the monthly real prices of four key industrial metals -- aluminum, copper, nickel, and zinc -- whose demand is rising due to their widespread use in manufacturing and low-carbon technologies. To replicate the information set available to forecasters in real time, we construct a new dataset combining daily financial variables with first-release macroeconomic indicators and use nowcasting techniques to address publication lags. Within this real-time environment, we evaluate the predictive accuracy of a broad set of univariate, multivariate, and factor-augmented models, comparing their performance with two industry benchmarks: survey expectations and futures-spot spread models. Results show that although short-run metal price movements remain difficult to predict, medium-term horizons display substantial forecastability. Indicators of manufacturing activity tied to primary metals -- such as new orders and capacity utilization -- significantly improve forecasting accuracy for aluminum and copper, with more moderate gains for zinc and limited improvements for nickel. Futures and survey forecasts generally underperform the real-time econometric models. These findings highlight the value of incorporating timely macroeconomic information into forecasting frameworks for industrial metal markets.

econ.EM

A comparison between initialization strategies for the infinite hidden Markov model

Infinite hidden Markov models provide a flexible framework for modeling time-series with structural changes and complex dynamics, without requiring the number of latent states to be specified in advance. This flexibility is achieved through the hierarchical Dirichlet process prior, while efficient Bayesian inference is enabled by the beam sampler, which combines dynamic programming with slice sampling to truncate the infinite state space adaptively. Despite extensive methodological developments, the role of initialization in this framework has received limited attention. This gap is addressed by systematically evaluating initialization strategies commonly used for finite hidden Markov models and assessing their suitability in the infinite setting. Results from both simulated and real datasets show that distance-based clustering initializations consistently outperform model-based and uniform alternatives, the latter being the most widely adopted in the existing literature.

stat.ME

Modeling European Electricity Market Integration during turbulent times

This paper introduces a novel Bayesian reverse unrestricted mixed-frequency model applied to a panel of nine European electricity markets. Our model analyzes the impact of daily fossil fuel prices and hourly renewable energy generation on hourly electricity prices, employing a hierarchical structure to capture cross-country interdependencies and idiosyncratic factors. The inclusion of random effects demonstrates that electricity market integration both mitigates and amplifies shocks. Our results highlight that while renewable energy sources consistently reduce electricity prices across all countries, gas prices remain a dominant driver of cross-country electricity price disparities and instability. This finding underscores the critical importance of energy diversification, above all on renewable energy sources, and coordinated fossil fuel supply strategies for bolstering European energy security.

econ.EM

Learning to Recover: Dynamic Reward Shaping with Wheel-Leg Coordination for Fallen Robots

Adaptive recovery from fall incidents are essential skills for the practical deployment of wheeled-legged robots, which uniquely combine the agility of legs with the speed of wheels for rapid recovery. However, traditional methods relying on preplanned recovery motions, simplified dynamics or sparse rewards often fail to produce robust recovery policies. This paper presents a learning-based framework integrating Episode-based Dynamic Reward Shaping and curriculum learning, which dynamically balances exploration of diverse recovery maneuvers with precise posture refinement. An asymmetric actor-critic architecture accelerates training by leveraging privileged information in simulation, while noise-injected observations enhance robustness against uncertainties. We further demonstrate that synergistic wheel-leg coordination reduces joint torque consumption by 15.8% and 26.2% and improves stabilization through energy transfer mechanisms. Extensive evaluations on two distinct quadruped platforms achieve recovery success rates up to 99.1% and 97.8% without platform-specific tuning. The supplementary material is available at https://boyuandeng.github.io/L2R-WheelLegCoordination/

cs.RO

CONCERT: a Modular Reconfigurable Robot for Construction

This paper presents CONCERT, a fully reconfigurable modular collaborative robot (cobot) for multiple on-site operations in a construction site. CONCERT has been designed to support human activities in construction sites by leveraging two main characteristics: high-power density motors and modularity. In this way, the robot is able to perform a wide range of highly demanding tasks by acting as a co-worker of the human operator or by autonomously executing them following user instructions. Most of its versatility comes from the possibility of rapidly changing its kinematic structure by adding or removing passive or active modules. In this way, the robot can be set up in a vast set of morphologies, consequently changing its workspace and capabilities depending on the task to be executed. In the same way, distal end-effectors can be replaced for the execution of different operations. This paper also includes a full description of the software pipeline employed to automatically discover and deploy the robot morphology. Specifically, depending on the modules installed, the robot updates the kinematic, dynamic, and geometric parameters, taking into account the information embedded in each module. In this way, we demonstrate how the robot can be fully reassembled and made operational in less than ten minutes. We validated the CONCERT robot across different use cases, including drilling, sanding, plastering, and collaborative transportation with obstacle avoidance, all performed in a real construction site scenario. We demonstrated the robot's adaptivity and performance in multiple scenarios characterized by different requirements in terms of power and workspace. CONCERT has been designed and built by the Humanoid and Human-Centered Mechatronics Laboratory (HHCM) at the Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia in the context of the European Project Horizon 2020 CONCERT.

cs.RO

Soft Adaptive Feet for Legged Robots: An Open-Source Model for Locomotion Simulation

In recent years, artificial feet based on soft robotics and under-actuation principles emerged to improve mobility on challenging terrains. This paper presents the application of the MuJoCo physics engine to realize a digital twin of an adaptive soft foot developed for use with legged robots. We release the MuJoCo soft foot digital twin as open source to allow users and researchers to explore new approaches to locomotion. The work includes the system modeling techniques along with the kinematic and dynamic attributes involved. Validation is conducted through a rigorous comparison with bench tests on a physical prototype, replicating these experiments in simulation. Results are evaluated based on sole deformation and contact forces during foot-obstacle interaction. The foot model is subsequently integrated into simulations of the humanoid robot COMAN+, replacing its original flat feet. Results show an improvement in the robot's ability to negotiate small obstacles without altering its control strategy. Ultimately, this study offers a comprehensive modeling approach for adaptive soft feet, supported by qualitative comparisons of bipedal locomotion with state of the art robotic feet.

cs.RO

Bayesian Partial Reduced-Rank Regression

Reduced-rank (RR) regression may be interpreted as a dimensionality reduction technique able to reveal complex relationships among the data parsimoniously. However, RR regression models typically overlook any potential group structure among the responses by assuming a low-rank structure on the coefficient matrix. To address this limitation, a Bayesian Partial RR (BPRR) regression is exploited, where the response vector and the coefficient matrix are partitioned into low- and full-rank sub-groups. As opposed to the literature, which assumes known group structure and rank, a novel strategy is introduced that treats them as unknown parameters to be estimated. The main contribution is two-fold: an approach to infer the low- and full-rank group memberships from the data is proposed, and then, conditionally on this allocation, the corresponding (reduced) rank is estimated. Both steps are carried out in a Bayesian approach, allowing for full uncertainty quantification and based on a partially collapsed Gibbs sampler. It relies on a Laplace approximation of the marginal likelihood and the Metropolized Shotgun Stochastic Search to estimate the group allocation efficiently. Applications to synthetic and real-world data reveal the potential of the proposed method to reveal hidden structures in the data.

stat.ME

HYPERmotion: Learning Hybrid Behavior Planning for Autonomous Loco-manipulation

Enabling robots to autonomously perform hybrid motions in diverse environments can be beneficial for long-horizon tasks such as material handling, household chores, and work assistance. This requires extensive exploitation of intrinsic motion capabilities, extraction of affordances from rich environmental information, and planning of physical interaction behaviors. Despite recent progress has demonstrated impressive humanoid whole-body control abilities, they struggle to achieve versatility and adaptability for new tasks. In this work, we propose HYPERmotion, a framework that learns, selects and plans behaviors based on tasks in different scenarios. We combine reinforcement learning with whole-body optimization to generate motion for 38 actuated joints and create a motion library to store the learned skills. We apply the planning and reasoning features of the large language models (LLMs) to complex loco-manipulation tasks, constructing a hierarchical task graph that comprises a series of primitive behaviors to bridge lower-level execution with higher-level planning. By leveraging the interaction of distilled spatial geometry and 2D observation with a visual language model (VLM) to ground knowledge into a robotic morphology selector to choose appropriate actions in single- or dual-arm, legged or wheeled locomotion. Experiments in simulation and real-world show that learned motions can efficiently adapt to new tasks, demonstrating high autonomy from free-text commands in unstructured scenes. Videos and website: hy-motion.github.io/

cs.RO

Comparing predictive ability in presence of instability over a very short time

We consider forecast comparison in the presence of instability when this affects only a short period of time. We demonstrate that global tests do not perform well in this case, as they were not designed to capture very short-lived instabilities, and their power vanishes altogether when the magnitude of the shock is very large. We then discuss and propose approaches that are more suitable to detect such situations, such as nonparametric methods (S test or MAX procedure). We illustrate these results in different Monte Carlo exercises and in evaluating the nowcast of the quarterly US nominal GDP from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) against a naive benchmark of no growth, over the period that includes the GDP instability brought by the Covid-19 crisis. We recommend that the forecaster should not pool the sample, but exclude the short periods of high local instability from the evaluation exercise.

econ.EM

What drives the European carbon market? Macroeconomic factors and forecasts

Putting a price on carbon -- with taxes or developing carbon markets -- is a widely used policy measure to achieve the target of net-zero emissions by 2050. This paper tackles the issue of producing point, direction-of-change, and density forecasts for the monthly real price of carbon within the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). We aim to uncover supply- and demand-side forces that can contribute to improving the prediction accuracy of models at short- and medium-term horizons. We show that a simple Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model, augmented with either one or two factors capturing a set of predictors affecting the price of carbon, provides substantial accuracy gains over a wide set of benchmark forecasts, including survey expectations and forecasts made available by data providers. We extend the study to verified emissions and demonstrate that, in this case, adding stochastic volatility can further improve the forecasting performance of a single-factor BVAR model. We rely on emissions and price forecasts to build market monitoring tools that track demand and price pressure in the EU ETS market. Our results are relevant for policymakers and market practitioners interested in monitoring the carbon market dynamics.

econ.EM

A Quantile Nelson-Siegel model

We propose a novel framework for modeling the yield curve from a quantile perspective. Building on the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model of Diebold et al. (2006), we extend its traditional mean-based approach to a quantile regression setting, enabling the estimation of yield curve factors - level, slope, and curvature - at specific quantiles of the conditional distribution. A key advantage of our framework is its ability to characterize the entire conditional distribution of the yield curve across maturities and over time. In an empirical analysis of the U.S. term structure of interest rates, our method demonstrates superior out-of-sample forecasting performance, particularly in capturing the tails of the yield distribution - an aspect increasingly emphasized in the recent literature on distributional forecasting. In addition to its forecasting advantages, our approach reveals rich distributional features beyond the mean. In particular, we find that the dynamic changes in these distributional features differ markedly between the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic period, highlighting a fundamental shift in how interest rate markets respond to distinct economic shocks.

stat.AP