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Luca Rossini

Publications and source records attributed to Luca Rossini.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

HYPERmotion: Learning Hybrid Behavior Planning for Autonomous Loco-manipulation

Enabling robots to autonomously perform hybrid motions in diverse environments can be beneficial for long-horizon tasks such as material handling, household chores, and work assistance. This requires extensive exploitation of intrinsic motion capabilities, extraction of affordances from rich environmental information, and planning of physical interaction behaviors. Despite recent progress has demonstrated impressive humanoid whole-body control abilities, they struggle to achieve versatility and adaptability for new tasks. In this work, we propose HYPERmotion, a framework that learns, selects and plans behaviors based on tasks in different scenarios. We combine reinforcement learning with whole-body optimization to generate motion for 38 actuated joints and create a motion library to store the learned skills. We apply the planning and reasoning features of the large language models (LLMs) to complex loco-manipulation tasks, constructing a hierarchical task graph that comprises a series of primitive behaviors to bridge lower-level execution with higher-level planning. By leveraging the interaction of distilled spatial geometry and 2D observation with a visual language model (VLM) to ground knowledge into a robotic morphology selector to choose appropriate actions in single- or dual-arm, legged or wheeled locomotion. Experiments in simulation and real-world show that learned motions can efficiently adapt to new tasks, demonstrating high autonomy from free-text commands in unstructured scenes. Videos and website: hy-motion.github.io/

cs.RO↗

Comparing predictive ability in presence of instability over a very short time

We consider forecast comparison in the presence of instability when this affects only a short period of time. We demonstrate that global tests do not perform well in this case, as they were not designed to capture very short-lived instabilities, and their power vanishes altogether when the magnitude of the shock is very large. We then discuss and propose approaches that are more suitable to detect such situations, such as nonparametric methods (S test or MAX procedure). We illustrate these results in different Monte Carlo exercises and in evaluating the nowcast of the quarterly US nominal GDP from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) against a naive benchmark of no growth, over the period that includes the GDP instability brought by the Covid-19 crisis. We recommend that the forecaster should not pool the sample, but exclude the short periods of high local instability from the evaluation exercise.

econ.EM↗

Loss based prior for the degrees of freedom of the Wishart distribution

Motivated by the proliferation of extensive macroeconomic and health datasets necessitating accurate forecasts, a novel approach is introduced to address Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. This approach employs the global-local shrinkage-Wishart prior. Unlike conventional VAR models, where degrees of freedom are predetermined to be equivalent to the size of the variable plus one or equal to zero, the proposed method integrates a hyperprior for the degrees of freedom to account for the uncertainty about the parameter values. Specifically, a loss-based prior is derived to leverage information regarding the data-inherent degrees of freedom. The efficacy of the proposed prior is demonstrated in a multivariate setting for forecasting macroeconomic data, as well as Dengue infection data.

stat.ME↗

Uncertainty Quantification in Bayesian Reduced-Rank Sparse Regressions

Reduced-rank regression recognises the possibility of a rank-deficient matrix of coefficients. We propose a novel Bayesian model for estimating the rank of the coefficient matrix, which obviates the need for post-processing steps and allows for uncertainty quantification. Our method employs a mixture prior on the regression coefficient matrix along with a global-local shrinkage prior on its low-rank decomposition. Then, we rely on the Signal Adaptive Variable Selector to perform sparsification and define two novel tools: the Posterior Inclusion Probability uncertainty index and the Relevance Index. The validity of the method is assessed in a simulation study, and then its advantages and usefulness are shown in real-data applications on the chemical composition of tobacco and on the photometry of galaxies.

stat.ME↗

Money Growth and Inflation: A Quantile Sensitivity Approach

An innovative method is proposed to construct a quantile dependence system for inflation and money growth. By considering all quantiles and leveraging a novel notion of quantile sensitivity, the method allows the assessment of changes in the entire distribution of a variable of interest in response to a perturbation in another variable's quantile. The construction of this relationship is demonstrated through a system of linear quantile regressions. Then, the proposed framework is exploited to examine the distributional effects of money growth on the distributions of inflation and its disaggregate measures in the United States and the Euro area. The empirical analysis uncovers significant impacts of the upper quantile of the money growth distribution on the distribution of inflation and its disaggregate measures. Conversely, the lower and median quantiles of the money growth distribution are found to have a negligible influence. Finally, this distributional impact exhibits variation over time in both the United States and the Euro area.

econ.EM↗

Sparse time-varying parameter VECMs with an application to modeling electricity prices

In this paper we propose a time-varying parameter (TVP) vector error correction model (VECM) with heteroskedastic disturbances. We propose tools to carry out dynamic model specification in an automatic fashion. This involves using global-local priors, and postprocessing the parameters to achieve truly sparse solutions. Depending on the respective set of coefficients, we achieve this via minimizing auxiliary loss functions. Our two-step approach limits overfitting and reduces parameter estimation uncertainty. We apply this framework to modeling European electricity prices. When considering daily electricity prices for different markets jointly, our model highlights the importance of explicitly addressing cointegration and nonlinearities. In a forecast exercise focusing on hourly prices for Germany, our approach yields competitive metrics of predictive accuracy.

econ.EM↗

Design and Validation of a Multi-Arm Relocatable Manipulator for Space Applications

This work presents the computational design and validation of the Multi-Arm Relocatable Manipulator (MARM), a three-limb robot for space applications, with particular reference to the MIRROR (i.e., the Multi-arm Installation Robot for Readying ORUs and Reflectors) use-case scenario as proposed by the European Space Agency. A holistic computational design and validation pipeline is proposed, with the aim of comparing different limb designs, as well as ensuring that valid limb candidates enable MARM to perform the complex loco-manipulation tasks required. Motivated by the task complexity in terms of kinematic reachability, (self)-collision avoidance, contact wrench limits, and motor torque limits affecting Earth experiments, this work leverages on multiple state-of-art planning and control approaches to aid the robot design and validation. These include sampling-based planning on manifolds, non-linear trajectory optimization, and quadratic programs for inverse dynamics computations with constraints. Finally, we present the attained MARM design and conduct preliminary tests for hardware validation through a set of lab experiments.

cs.RO↗

Are low frequency macroeconomic variables important for high frequency electricity prices?

Recent research finds that forecasting electricity prices is very relevant. In many applications, it might be interesting to predict daily electricity prices by using their own lags or renewable energy sources. However, the recent turmoil of energy prices and the Russian-Ukrainian war increased attention in evaluating the relevance of industrial production and the Purchasing Managers' Index output survey in forecasting the daily electricity prices. We develop a Bayesian reverse unrestricted MIDAS model which accounts for the mismatch in frequency between the daily prices and the monthly macro variables in Germany and Italy. We find that the inclusion of macroeconomic low frequency variables is more important for short than medium term horizons by means of point and density measures. In particular, accuracy increases by combining hard and soft information, while using only surveys gives less accurate forecasts than using only industrial production data.

q-fin.ST↗

Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Quantile Vector Autoregression: Eliciting tail risks of Monthly US GDP

Timely characterizations of risks in economic and financial systems play an essential role in both economic policy and private sector decisions. However, the informational content of low-frequency variables and the results from conditional mean models provide only limited evidence to investigate this problem. We propose a novel mixed-frequency quantile vector autoregression (MF-QVAR) model to address this issue. Inspired by the univariate Bayesian quantile regression literature, the multivariate asymmetric Laplace distribution is exploited under the Bayesian framework to form the likelihood. A data augmentation approach coupled with a precision sampler efficiently estimates the missing low-frequency variables at higher frequencies under the state-space representation. The proposed methods allow us to nowcast conditional quantiles for multiple variables of interest and to derive quantile-related risk measures at high frequency, thus enabling timely policy interventions. The main application of the model is to nowcast conditional quantiles of the US GDP, which is strictly related to the quantification of Value-at-Risk and the Expected Shortfall.

econ.EM↗

Loco-Manipulation Planning for Legged Robots: Offline and Online Strategies

The deployment of robots within realistic environments requires the capability to plan and refine the loco-manipulation trajectories on the fly to avoid unexpected interactions with a dynamic environment. This extended abstract provides a pipeline to offline plan a configuration space global trajectory based on a randomized strategy, and to online locally refine it depending on any change of the dynamic environment and the robot state. The offline planner directly plans in the contact space, and additionally seeks for whole-body feasible configurations compliant with the sampled contact states. The planned trajectory, made by a discrete set of contacts and configurations, can be seen as a graph and it can be online refined during the execution of the global trajectory. The online refinement is carried out by a graph optimization planner exploiting visual information. It locally acts on the global initial plan to account for possible changes in the environment. While the offline planner is a concluded work, tested on the humanoid COMAN+, the online local planner is still a work-in-progress which has been tested on a reduced model of the CENTAURO robot to avoid dynamic and static obstacles interfering with a wheeled motion task. Both the COMAN+ and the CENTAURO robots have been designed at the Italian Institute of Technology (IIT).

cs.RO↗

A Multivariate Dependence Analysis for Electricity Prices, Demand and Renewable Energy Sources

This paper examines the dependence between electricity prices, demand, and renewable energy sources by means of a multivariate copula model {while studying Germany, the widest studied market in Europe}. The inter-dependencies are investigated in-depth and monitored over time, with particular emphasis on the tail behavior. To this end, suitable tail dependence measures are introduced to take into account a multivariate extreme scenario appropriately identified {through the} Kendall's distribution function. The empirical evidence demonstrates a strong association between electricity prices, renewable energy sources, and demand within a day and over the studied years. Hence, this analysis provides guidance for further and different incentives for promoting green energy generation while considering the time-varying dependencies of the involved variables

stat.AP↗

Inference in Bayesian Additive Vector Autoregressive Tree Models

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models assume linearity between the endogenous variables and their lags. This assumption might be overly restrictive and could have a deleterious impact on forecasting accuracy. As a solution, we propose combining VAR with Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) models. The resulting Bayesian additive vector autoregressive tree (BAVART) model is capable of capturing arbitrary non-linear relations between the endogenous variables and the covariates without much input from the researcher. Since controlling for heteroscedasticity is key for producing precise density forecasts, our model allows for stochastic volatility in the errors. We apply our model to two datasets. The first application shows that the BAVART model yields highly competitive forecasts of the US term structure of interest rates. In a second application, we estimate our model using a moderately sized Eurozone dataset to investigate the dynamic effects of uncertainty on the economy.

econ.EM↗

A Pólya-Gamma Sampler for a Generalized Logistic Regression

In this paper we introduce a novel Bayesian data augmentation approach for estimating the parameters of the generalised logistic regression model. We propose a Pólya-Gamma sampler algorithm that allows us to sample from the exact posterior distribution, rather than relying on approximations. A simulation study illustrates the flexibility and accuracy of the proposed approach to capture heavy and light tails in binary response data of different dimensions. The methodology is applied to two different real datasets, where we demonstrate that the Pólya-Gamma sampler provides more precise estimates than the empirical likelihood method, outperforming approximate approaches.

stat.ME↗

Proper scoring rules for evaluating asymmetry in density forecasting

This paper proposes a novel asymmetric continuous probabilistic score (ACPS) for evaluating and comparing density forecasts. It extends the proposed score and defines a weighted version, which emphasizes regions of interest, such as the tails or the center of a variable's range. A test is also introduced to statistically compare the predictive ability of different forecasts. The ACPS is of general use in any situation where the decision maker has asymmetric preferences in the evaluation of the forecasts. In an artificial experiment, the implications of varying the level of asymmetry in the ACPS are illustrated. Then, the proposed score and test are applied to assess and compare density forecasts of macroeconomic relevant datasets (US employment growth) and of commodity prices (oil and electricity prices) with particular focus on the recent COVID-19 crisis period.

stat.ME↗

Comparing the Forecasting Performances of Linear Models for Electricity Prices with High RES Penetration

This paper compares alternative univariate versus multivariate models, frequentist versus Bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive specifications, for hourly day-ahead electricity prices, both with and without renewable energy sources. The accuracy of point and density forecasts are inspected in four main European markets (Germany, Denmark, Italy and Spain) characterized by different levels of renewable energy power generation. Our results show that the Bayesian VAR specifications with exogenous variables dominate other multivariate and univariate specifications, in terms of both point and density forecasting.

econ.EM↗

Comparing the forecasting of cryptocurrencies by Bayesian time-varying volatility models

This paper studies the forecasting ability of cryptocurrency time series. This study is about the four most capitalized cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple. Different Bayesian models are compared, including models with constant and time-varying volatility, such as stochastic volatility and GARCH. Moreover, some crypto-predictors are included in the analysis, such as S\&P 500 and Nikkei 225. In this paper the results show that stochastic volatility is significantly outperforming the benchmark of VAR in both point and density forecasting. Using a different type of distribution, for the errors of the stochastic volatility the student-t distribution came out to be outperforming the standard normal approach.

econ.EM↗

Bayesian nonparametric graphical models for time-varying parameters VAR

Over the last decade, big data have poured into econometrics, demanding new statistical methods for analysing high-dimensional data and complex non-linear relationships. A common approach for addressing dimensionality issues relies on the use of static graphical structures for extracting the most significant dependence interrelationships between the variables of interest. Recently, Bayesian nonparametric techniques have become popular for modelling complex phenomena in a flexible and efficient manner, but only few attempts have been made in econometrics. In this paper, we provide an innovative Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) time-varying graphical framework for making inference in high-dimensional time series. We include a Bayesian nonparametric dependent prior specification on the matrix of coefficients and the covariance matrix by mean of a Time-Series DPP as in Nieto-Barajas et al. (2012). Following Billio et al. (2019), our hierarchical prior overcomes over-parametrization and over-fitting issues by clustering the vector autoregressive (VAR) coefficients into groups and by shrinking the coefficients of each group toward a common location. Our BNP timevarying VAR model is based on a spike-and-slab construction coupled with dependent Dirichlet Process prior (DPP) and allows to: (i) infer time-varying Granger causality networks from time series; (ii) flexibly model and cluster non-zero time-varying coefficients; (iii) accommodate for potential non-linearities. In order to assess the performance of the model, we study the merits of our approach by considering a well-known macroeconomic dataset. Moreover, we check the robustness of the method by comparing two alternative specifications, with Dirac and diffuse spike prior distributions.

econ.EM↗

On a flexible construction of a negative binomial model

This work presents a construction of stationary Markov models with negative-binomial marginal distributions. A simple closed form expression for the corresponding transition probabilities is given, linking the proposal to well-known classes of birth and death processes and thus revealing interesting characterizations. The advantage of having such closed form expressions is tested on simulated and real data.

stat.ME↗