arXiv subjects

Luca Rossini

Publications and source records attributed to Luca Rossini.

44 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2018

Loss-based approach to two-piece location-scale distributions with applications to dependent data

Two-piece location-scale models are used for modeling data presenting departures from symmetry. In this paper, we propose an objective Bayesian methodology for the tail parameter of two particular distributions of the above family: the skewed exponential power distribution and the skewed generalised logistic distribution. We apply the proposed objective approach to time series models and linear regression models where the error terms follow the distributions object of study. The performance of the proposed approach is illustrated through simulation experiments and real data analysis. The methodology yields improvements in density forecasts, as shown by the analysis we carry out on the electricity prices in Nordpool markets.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

Bayesian nonparametric sparse VAR models

High dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models require a large number of parameters to be estimated and may suffer of inferential problems. We propose a new Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) Lasso prior (BNP-Lasso) for high-dimensional VAR models that can improve estimation efficiency and prediction accuracy. Our hierarchical prior overcomes overparametrization and overfitting issues by clustering the VAR coefficients into groups and by shrinking the coefficients of each group toward a common location. Clustering and shrinking effects induced by the BNP-Lasso prior are well suited for the extraction of causal networks from time series, since they account for some stylized facts in real-world networks, which are sparsity, communities structures and heterogeneity in the edges intensity. In order to fully capture the richness of the data and to achieve a better understanding of financial and macroeconomic risk, it is therefore crucial that the model used to extract network accounts for these stylized facts.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2018

Hierarchical Species Sampling Models

This paper introduces a general class of hierarchical nonparametric prior distributions. The random probability measures are constructed by a hierarchy of generalized species sampling processes with possibly non-diffuse base measures. The proposed framework provides a general probabilistic foundation for hierarchical random measures with either atomic or mixed base measures and allows for studying their properties, such as the distribution of the marginal and total number of clusters. We show that hierarchical species sampling models have a Chinese Restaurants Franchise representation and can be used as prior distributions to undertake Bayesian nonparametric inference. We provide a method to sample from the posterior distribution together with some numerical illustrations. Our class of priors includes some new hierarchical mixture priors such as the hierarchical Gnedin measures, and other well-known prior distributions such as the hierarchical Pitman-Yor and the hierarchical normalized random measures.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

Bayesian Nonparametric Conditional Copula Estimation of Twin Data

Several studies on heritability in twins aim at understanding the different contribution of environmental and genetic factors to specific traits. Considering the National Merit Twin Study, our purpose is to correctly analyse the influence of the socioeconomic status on the relationship between twins' cognitive abilities. Our methodology is based on conditional copulas, which allow us to model the effect of a covariate driving the strength of dependence between the main variables. We propose a flexible Bayesian nonparametric approach for the estimation of conditional copulas, which can model any conditional copula density. Our methodology extends the work of Wu et al (2015) by introducing dependence from a covariate in an infinite mixture model. Our results suggest that environmental factors are more influential in families with lower socio-economic position.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

Discussion on "Sparse graphs using exchangeable random measures" by F. Caron and E. B. Fox

Discussion on "Sparse graphs using exchangeable random measures" by F. Caron and E. B. Fox. In this discussion we contribute to the analysis of the GGP model as compared to the Erdos-Renyi (ER) and the preferential attachment (AB) models, using different measures such as number of connected components, global clustering coefficient, assortativity coefficient and share of nodes in the core.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

Discussion on "Random-projection ensemble classification" by T. Cannings and R. Samworth

Discussion on "Random-projection ensemble classification" by T. Cannings and R. Samworth. We believe that the proposed approach can find many applications in economics such as credit scoring (e.g. Altman (1968)) and can be extended to more general type of classifiers. In this discussion we would like to draw authors attention to the copula-based discriminant analysis (Han et al. (2013) and He et al. (2016)).

stat.ME↗

arXiv2016

A Note on the Posterior Inference for the Yule-Simon Distribution

The Yule--Simon distribution has been out of the radar of the Bayesian community, so far. In this note, we propose an explicit Gibbs sampling scheme when a Gamma prior is chosen for the shape parameter. The performance of the algorithm is illustrated with simulation studies, including count data regression, and a real data application to text analysis. We compare our proposal to the frequentist counterparts showing better performance of our algorithm when a small sample size is considered.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2016

Objective Bayesian Analysis of the Yule-Simon Distribution with Applications

The Yule-Simon distribution is usually employed in the analysis of frequency data. As the Bayesian literature, so far, ignored this distribution, here we show the derivation of two objective priors for the parameter of the Yule-Simon distribution. In particular, we discuss the Jeffreys prior and a loss-based prior, which has recently appeared in the literature. We illustrate the performance of the derived priors through a simulation study and the analysis of real datasets.

stat.ME↗