arXiv subjects

Lucas M. Harris

Publications and source records attributed to Lucas M. Harris.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Disentangling the effects of sea surface temperature and CO$_2$ in global machine learned weather-climate emulators

While previous versions of the Ai2 Climate Emulator (ACE) have been trained with CO$_2$ as a forcing, they are only accurate within a narrow range of scenarios, for example climate over the last 80 years forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice, and CO$_2$ (AMIP), or equilibrium or near-equilibrium climates with CO$_2$ concentrations ranging from 1x to 4x that of the present day. Attempting to simulate climate forced by AMIP SST perturbed by +4 K or the response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO$_2$, results in unphysical behavior. We attribute this to these models being trained on datasets where the SST and CO$_2$ are correlated, limiting their ability to accurately learn their separate effects. In this study we introduce a new class of "random-CO$_2$" reference simulations where the SST and CO$_2$ are prescribed to vary independently. Trained on a balance of AMIP, equilibrium-climate, and random-CO$_2$ data, and including a total energy conservation constraint for improved interpretability, we present a more data-efficient model that not only accurately emulates its reference model in scenarios in which previous models excelled, but also scenarios like AMIP +4 K and slab-ocean-coupled abrupt 4xCO$_2$ where they did not. Limitations are that it has simplified or prescribed representations of other Earth system components like the ocean, land, and sea ice; does not expose other known climate drivers as forcings; and relies solely on physics-based model output for training data, inheriting the biases relative to observations thereof. Each of these represent opportunities for future work.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

HiRO-ACE: Fast and skillful AI emulation and downscaling trained on a 3 km global storm-resolving model

Kilometer-scale simulations of the atmosphere are an important tool for assessing local weather extremes and climate impacts, but computational expense limits their use to small regions, short periods, and limited ensembles. Machine learning offers a pathway to efficiently emulate these high-resolution simulations. Here we introduce HiRO-ACE, a two-stage AI modeling framework combining a stochastic version of the Ai2 Climate Emulator (ACE2S) with diffusion-based downscaling (HiRO) to generate 3 km precipitation fields over arbitrary regions of the globe. Both components are trained on data derived from a decade of atmospheric simulation by X-SHiELD, a 3 km global storm-resolving model. HiRO performs a 32x downscaling--generating 3 km 6-hourly precipitation from coarse 100 km inputs by training on paired high-resolution and coarsened X-SHiELD outputs. ACE2S is a $1^\circ \times 1^\circ$ ($\sim$100 km) stochastic autoregressive global atmosphere emulator that maintains grid-scale precipitation variability consistent with coarsened X-SHiELD, enabling its outputs to be ingested by HiRO without additional tuning. HiRO-ACE reproduces the distribution of extreme precipitation rates through the 99.99th percentile, with time-mean precipitation biases below 10% almost everywhere. The framework generates plausible tropical cyclones, fronts, and convective events from poorly resolved coarse inputs. Its computational efficiency allows generation of 6-hourly high-resolution regional precipitation for decades of simulated climate within a single day using one H100 GPU, while the probabilistic design enables ensemble generation for quantifying uncertainty. This establishes an AI-enabled pathway for affordably leveraging the realism of expensive km-scale simulations to support local climate adaptation planning and extreme event risk assessment.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

ACE2-SOM: Coupling an ML atmospheric emulator to a slab ocean and learning the sensitivity of climate to changed CO$_2$

While autoregressive machine-learning-based emulators have been trained to produce stable and accurate rollouts in the climate of the present-day and recent past, none so far have been trained to emulate the sensitivity of climate to substantial changes in CO$_2$ or other greenhouse gases. As an initial step we couple the Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2 to a slab ocean model (hereafter ACE2-SOM) and train it on output from a collection of equilibrium-climate physics-based reference simulations with varying levels of CO$_2$. We test it in equilibrium and non-equilibrium climate scenarios with CO$_2$ concentrations seen and unseen in training. ACE2-SOM performs well in equilibrium-climate inference with both in-sample and out-of-sample CO$_2$ concentrations, accurately reproducing the emergent time-mean spatial patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change with CO$_2$ doubling, tripling, or quadrupling. In addition, the vertical profile of atmospheric warming and change in extreme precipitation rates up to the 99.9999th percentile closely agree with the reference model. Non-equilibrium-climate inference is more challenging. With CO$_2$ increasing gradually at a rate of 2% year$^{-1}$, ACE2-SOM can accurately emulate the global annual mean trends of surface and lower-to-middle atmosphere fields but produces unphysical jumps in stratospheric fields. With an abrupt quadrupling of CO$_2$, ML-controlled fields transition unrealistically quickly to the 4xCO$_2$ regime. In doing so they violate global energy conservation and exhibit unphysical sensitivities of and surface and top of atmosphere radiative fluxes to instantaneous changes in CO$_2$. Future emulator development needed to address these issues should improve its generalizability to diverse climate change scenarios.

physics.ao-ph↗