arXiv subjects

Luciano Rodriguez

Publications and source records attributed to Luciano Rodriguez.

24 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

CME-CME Interactions as Sources of CME Geo-effectiveness: The Formation of the Complex Ejecta and Intense Geomagnetic Storm in Early September 2017

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the primary sources of intense disturbances at Earth, where their geo-effectiveness is largely determined by their dynamic pressure and internal magnetic field, which can be significantly altered during interactions with other CMEs in interplanetary space. We analyse three successive CMEs that erupted from the Sun during September 4-6, 2017, investigating the role of CME-CME interactions as source of the associated intense geomagnetic storm (Dst_min=-142 nT on September 7). To quantify the impact of interactions on the (geo-)effectiveness of individual CMEs, we perform global heliospheric simulations with the EUHFORIA model, using observation-based initial parameters with the additional purpose of validating the predictive capabilities of the model for complex CME events. The simulations show that around 0.45 AU, the shock driven by the September 6 CME started compressing a preceding magnetic ejecta formed by the merging of two CMEs launched on September 4, significantly amplifying its Bz until a maximum factor of 2.8 around 0.9 AU. The following gradual conversion of magnetic energy into kinetic and thermal components reduced the Bz amplification until its almost complete disappearance around 1.8 AU. We conclude that a key factor at the origin of the intense storm triggered by the September 4-6, 2017 CMEs was their arrival at Earth during the phase of maximum Bz amplification. Our analysis highlights how the amplification of the magnetic field of individual CMEs in space-time due to interaction processes can be characterised by a growth, a maximum, and a decay phase, suggesting that the time interval between the CME eruptions and their relative speeds are critical factors in determining the resulting impact of complex CMEs at various heliocentric distances (helio-effectiveness).

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Multipoint study of successive coronal mass ejections driving moderate disturbances at 1 AU

We analyse in this work the propagation and geoeffectiveness of four successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that erupted from the Sun during 21--23 May 2013 and that were detected in interplanetary space by the Wind and/or STEREO-A spacecraft. All these CMEs featured critical aspects for understanding so-called "problem space weather storms" at Earth. In the first three events a limb CMEs resulted in moderately geoeffective in-situ structures at their target location in terms of the disturbance storm time (Dst) index (either measured or estimated). The fourth CME, which also caused a moderate geomagnetic response, erupted from close to the disc centre as seen from Earth, but it was not visible in coronagraph images from the spacecraft along the Sun--Earth line and appeared narrow and faint from off-angle viewpoints. Making the correct connection between CMEs at the Sun and their in-situ counterparts is often difficult for problem storms. We investigate these four CMEs using multiwavelength and multipoint remote-sensing observations (extreme ultraviolet, white light, and radio), aided by 3D heliospheric modelling, in order to follow their propagation in the corona and in interplanetary space and to assess their impact at 1 AU. Finally, we emphasise the difficulties in forecasting moderate space weather effects provoked by problematic and ambiguous events and the importance of multispacecraft data for observing and modelling problem storms.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Observation-based modelling of magnetised Coronal Mass Ejections with EUHFORIA

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the primary source of strong space weather disturbances at Earth. Their geoeffectiveness is largely determined by their dynamic pressure and internal magnetic fields, for which reliable predictions at Earth are not possible with traditional cone CME models. We study two Earth-directed CMEs using the EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) model, testing the predictive capabilities of a linear force-free spheromak CME model initialised using parameters derived from remote-sensing observations. Using observation-based CME input parameters, we perform MHD simulations of the events with the cone and spheromak CME models. Results show that spheromak CMEs propagate faster than cone CMEs when initialised with the same kinematic parameters. We interpret these differences as due to different Lorentz forces acting within cone and spheromak CMEs, leading to different CME expansions. Such discrepancies can be mitigated by initialising spheromak CMEs with a reduced speed corresponding to the radial speed only. Results at Earth evidence that the spheromak model improves the predictions of B(Bz) up to 12-60(22-40) percentage points compared to a cone model. Considering virtual spacecraft located around Earth, B(Bz) predictions reach 45-70%(58-78%) of the observed peak values. The spheromak model predicts inaccurate magnetic field parameters at Earth for CMEs propagating away from the Sun-Earth line, while it successfully predicts the CME properties and arrival time in the case of strictly Earth-directed events. Modelling CMEs propagating away from the Sun-Earth line requires extra care due to limitations related to the assumed spherical shape. The spatial variability of modelling results and the typical uncertainties in the reconstructed CME direction advocate the need to consider predictions at Earth and at virtual spacecraft around it.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

Halo Coronal Mass Ejections during Solar Cycle 24: reconstruction of the global scenario and geoeffectiveness

In this study we present a statistical analysis of 53 fast Earth-directed halo CMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO instrument during the period Jan. 2009-Sep. 2015, and we use this CME sample to test the capabilities of a Sun-to-Earth prediction scheme for CME geoeffectiveness. First, we investigate the CME association with other solar activity features by means of multi-instrument observations of the solar magnetic and plasma properties. Second, using coronagraphic images to derive the CME kinematical properties at 0.1 AU, we propagate the events to 1 AU by means of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model. Simulation results at Earth are compared with in-situ observations at L1. By applying the pressure balance condition at the magnetopause and a solar wind-Kp index coupling function, we estimate the expected magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic activity level, and compare them with global data records. The analysis indicates that 82% of the CMEs arrived at Earth in the next 4 days. Almost the totality of them compressed the magnetopause below geosynchronous orbits and triggered a geomagnetic storm. Complex sunspot-rich active regions associated with energetic flares result the most favourable configurations from which geoeffective CMEs originate. The analysis of related SEP events shows that 74% of the CMEs associated with major SEPs were geoeffective. Moreover, the SEP production is enhanced in the case of fast and interacting CMEs. In this work we present a first attempt at applying a Sun-to-Earth geoeffectiveness prediction scheme - based on 3D simulations and solar wind-geomagnetic activity coupling functions - to a statistical set of potentially geoeffective halo CMEs. The results of the prediction scheme are in good agreement with geomagnetic activity data records, although further studies performing a fine-tuning of such scheme are needed.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

Geoeffectiveness of Coronal Mass Ejections in the SOHO era

The main objective of the study is to determine the probability distributions of the geomagnetic Dst index as a function of the coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar flare parameters for the purpose of establishing a probabilistic forecast tool for the geomagnetic storm intensity. Several CME and flare parameters as well as the effect of successive-CME occurrence in changing the probability for a certain range of Dst index values, were examined. The results confirm some of already known relationships between remotely-observed properties of solar eruptive events and geomagnetic storms, namely the importance of initial CME speed, apparent width, source position, and the associated solar flare class. In this paper we quantify these relationships in a form to be used for space weather forecasting in future. The results of the statistical study are employed to construct an empirical statistical model for predicting the probability of the geomagnetic storm intensity based on remote solar observations of CMEs and flares.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2012

Expansion of magnetic clouds in the outer heliosphere

A large amount of magnetized plasma is frequently ejected from the Sun as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Some of these ejections are detected in the solar wind as magnetic clouds (MCs) that have flux rope signatures. Magnetic clouds are structures that typically expand in the inner heliosphere. We derive the expansion properties of MCs in the outer heliosphere from one to five astronomical units to compare them with those in the inner heliosphere. We analyze MCs observed by the Ulysses spacecraft using insitu magnetic field and plasma measurements. The MC boundaries are defined in the MC frame after defining the MC axis with a minimum variance method applied only to the flux rope structure. As in the inner heliosphere, a large fraction of the velocity profile within MCs is close to a linear function of time. This is indicative of} a self-similar expansion and a MC size that locally follows a power-law of the solar distance with an exponent called zeta. We derive the value of zeta from the insitu velocity data. We analyze separately the non-perturbed MCs (cases showing a linear velocity profile almost for the full event), and perturbed MCs (cases showing a strongly distorted velocity profile). We find that non-perturbed MCs expand with a similar non-dimensional expansion rate (zeta=1.05+-0.34), i.e. slightly faster than at the solar distance and in the inner heliosphere (zeta=0.91+-0.23). The subset of perturbed MCs expands, as in the inner heliosphere, at a significantly lower rate and with a larger dispersion (zeta=0.28+-0.52) as expected from the temporal evolution found in numerical simulations. This local measure of the expansion also agrees with the distribution with distance of MC size,mean magnetic field, and plasma parameters. The MCs interacting with a strong field region, e.g. another MC, have the most variable expansion rate (ranging from compression to over-expansion).

physics.space-ph↗