arXiv subjects

Luis Welbanks

Publications and source records attributed to Luis Welbanks.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

The tale of the 3 planets: 3D cloud feedback enhances the spectral diversity of warm Jupiters

JWST has shown a large diversity in warm Jupiter spectra, despite only small variations in the planetary parameters. However, the main driver of this diversity remains unclear. We aim to identify the mechanisms responsible for the spectral difference of three warm Jupiter-size exoplanets observed by JWST: whereas WASP-80b appears mostly cloud-free, both WASP-107b and WASP-69b have spectra dominated by clouds. We model each planet using the same framework, ADAM (formerly SPARC/MITgcm), which solves for the interactions among cloud transport, radiative transfer, and atmospheric circulation in 3D. We investigate the role of three condensate species, Na$_2$S, KCl, and MgSiO$_3$, and four particle sizes (0.1, 1, 5, and 10 $μ$m). Clouds settle deeper in the atmosphere of the higher-gravity planet WASP-80b than in WASP-107b, reproducing their spectral difference naturally. For WASP-107b, three clouds can reproduce the NIRCam observations: 5 $μ$m Na$_2$S, 1 $μ$m KCl, and 5 $μ$m MgSiO$_3$ models. However, these cannot match the scattering slope observed at shorter wavelengths in NIRISS and the possible silicate feature in the MIRI bandpass, suggesting a multi-modal distribution of clouds. Our model predicts that small silicate particles should be homogeneously distributed and thus cannot account for the difference between the two limb spectra in the MIRI bandpass. Finally, applying the same model to WASP-69b does not yield a partially cloudy dayside solution that fits the emission spectra, as proposed in a previous study. Coupling among 3D circulation, clouds, and radiative transfer can enhance the spectral diversity of warm Jupiter exoplanets, particularly through changes in cloudiness with gravity. The combination of multi-phase, wide-wavelength coverage and models that couple clouds, circulation, and radiative transfer is key to advancing our understanding of these new objects.

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arXiv2026

Super-Solar Metallicity and Tentative Evidence for Photochemistry on WASP-96b from JWST and Ground-Based VLT Transmission Spectroscopy

With its expanded wavelength coverage and increased precision compared to previous space-based observatories, JWST provides the opportunity to revisit benchmark planets and view them in a new light. Here, we conduct an in-depth study of the atmosphere of the hot-Saturn WASP-96b combining a new JWST NIRSpec/G395H transit with archival NIRISS/SOSS and VLT/FORS2 transmission spectra. The combined spectrum shows clearly-visible features from H2O, CO2, and Na. CO, though, remains unconstrained, precluding a firm metallicity derivation from free retrievals alone. However, self-consistent grids yield a broadly super-stellar atmospheric metallicity of 2-6x stellar. When combined with a roughly stellar C/O ratio ($0.41^{+0.10}_{-0.09}$ from self-consistent grids), we find that WASP-96b potentially formed via core-accretion beyond the H2O snowline and subsequently accreted volatile-rich material. Free retrievals also find a moderate preference (ln B=2.69) for models with SO2 versus without. WASP-96b falls directly on the proposed "SO2 shoreline" and the retrieved SO2 abundance is well-matched to predictions from photochemical models. Our combined spectrum displays an optical slope, which our models fit with opacity from scattering aerosols -- either small-particle condensate clouds or photochemical hazes -- though we cannot completely rule out the broad wings of Na or the effects of stellar contamination. Future observations are necessary to disentangle these effects. Finally, we explore the possibility for limb asymmetry in WASP-96b's transmission spectrum and provide several tests to identify asymmetries in our data. We encourage the community to prioritize the development of a robust pathway to quantify the presence of limb asymmetry -- particularly for low signal-to-noise cases.

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arXiv2026

Cloudy solutions for the clear skies of WASP-80b: 3D cloud feedback on the atmosphere and spectra of a warm Jupiter

Close-in warm Jupiters orbiting M dwarf stars are expected to exhibit diverse atmospheric chemistry, with clouds playing a key role in shaping their albedo, heat distribution, and spectral properties. We study WASP-80b, a warm Jupiter orbiting an M dwarf star, using the latest JWST panchromatic emission and transmission spectra to comprehensively characterise its atmosphere, including cloud coverage, chemical composition, and particle sizes, and compare the observations with predictions from the general circulation models (GCMs). We used a GCM, ADAM (ADvanced Atmospheric MITgcm, formerly known as SPARC/MITgcm), combined with the latest JWST data to study the atmosphere of WASP-80b. A cloud module with radiatively active, tracer-based clouds was integrated with the GCM to study the effects on the atmosphere and the spectrum. We find that the emission and transmission spectra of WASP-80b are only compatible with cloudless atmospheres or with clouds composed of sufficiently large particles, namely Na$_2$S ($\geq 10 μ$m), KCl ($\geq 1 μ$m), and MgSiO$_3$ ($\geq 5 μ$m). For these large-particle cloud cases, efficient gravitational settling confines the clouds to deeper atmospheric layers, resulting in weak spectral signatures. Smaller particles are ruled out due to their strong radiative feedback on the atmospheric structure. Overall, our results suggest that WASP-80b's atmosphere is either effectively cloud-free or contains clouds composed of large, settled particles whose opacity has little impact on the observable atmosphere. This underscores the importance of particle size and vertical cloud distribution in interpreting exoplanet spectra. Future observations at shorter wavelengths may help distinguish between large-particle cloud scenarios and a truly cloudless atmosphere.

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arXiv2026

NASA's Pandora SmallSat Mission: Simulated Modeling and Retrieval of Near-Infrared Exoplanet Transmission Spectra

Pandora is a SmallSat mission dedicated to understanding exoplanets and their host stars by disentangling the impact of stellar heterogeneity on exoplanet transmission spectra. Selected as a NASA Astrophysics Pioneers mission in 2021, Pandora will provide simultaneous long-term visible photometric monitoring (0.4--0.7 $μ$m) and low-resolution near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy (0.9--1.6 $μ$m) of transiting systems for the purposes of monitoring host star variability and characterizing exoplanetary atmospheres. Pandora's year-long prime mission from 2026 to 2027 coincides with the middle of a decade defined by targeted efforts for atmospheric characterization of exoplanets, offering a key opportunity to leverage this new resource to maximize science with JWST and other observatories. Here we investigate Pandora's anticipated performance for the general exoplanet population accessible to transit spectroscopy, from hot Jupiters to temperate sub-Neptunes. By modeling the atmospheres of five test cases broadly consistent with the bulk properties of HD~209458~b, HD~189733~b, WASP-80~b, HAT-P-18~b, and K2-18~b, we find that Pandora may provide abundance constraints as precise as $\sim$1.0\,dex for main atmospheric absorbers such as H$_2$O and CH$_4$. Then, we explore the synergies between Pandora and JWST. Our results suggest that targets with JWST data in the near-infrared can benefit from the addition of Pandora observations and result in more reliable abundance estimates than with JWST data alone. Moreover, Pandora can serve the community by providing precursory observations of targets of interest for JWST atmospheric characterization. We conclude by outlining strategies for the use of Pandora as a standalone observatory and in synergy with JWST.

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arXiv2026

Magma ocean interactions can explain JWST observations of the sub-Neptune TOI-270 d

Sub-Neptunes with substantial atmospheres may possess magma oceans in contact with the overlying gas, with chemical interactions between the atmosphere and magma playing an important role in shaping atmospheric composition. Early JWST observations have found high abundances of carbon- and oxygen-bearing molecules in a number of sub-Neptune atmospheres, which may result from processes including accretion of icy material at formation or magma-atmosphere interactions. Previous work examining the effects of magma-atmosphere interactions on sub-Neptunes has mostly been limited to studying conditions at the atmosphere-mantle boundary, without considering implications for the upper atmosphere which is probed by spectroscopic observations. In this work, we present a modeling architecture to determine observable signatures of magma-atmosphere interactions. We combine an equilibrium chemistry code which models reactions between the core, mantle and atmosphere with a radiative-convective model that determines the composition and structure of the observable upper atmosphere. We examine how different conditions at the atmosphere-mantle boundary and different core and mantle compositions impact the upper atmospheric composition. We compare our models to JWST NIRISS+NIRSpec observations of the sub-Neptune TOI-270~d, finding that our models can provide a good fit to the observed transmission spectrum with little fine-tuning. This suggests that magma-atmosphere interactions may be sufficient to explain high abundances of molecules such as H$_2$O, CH$_4$ and CO$_2$ in sub-Neptune atmospheres, without additional accretion of icy material from the protoplanetary disk. Although other processes could lead to similar compositions, our work highlights the need to consider magma-atmosphere interactions when interpreting the observed atmospheric composition of a sub-Neptune.

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arXiv2025

Challenges in the detection of gases in exoplanet atmospheres

Claims of detections of gases in exoplanet atmospheres often rely on comparisons between models including and excluding specific chemical species. However, the space of molecular combinations available for model construction is vast and highly degenerate. Only a limited subset of these combinations is typically explored for any given detection. As a result, apparent detections of trace gases risk being artifacts of incomplete modeling rather than robust identification of atmospheric constituents, especially in the low signal-to-noise regime. Using the sub-Neptune K2-18 b as a case study, we show that recent biosignature claims vanish when the model space is expanded, with numerous alternatives providing equally good or better fits. We demonstrate that the significance of a claimed detection relies on the choice of models being compared, and that model preference does not in itself imply the presence of a specific gas. We recommend treating model comparisons instead as relative adequacy tests, which should be supported by theoretical predictions and complementary metrics of statistical significance in order to attribute a signal to a particular gas.

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arXiv2025

A Stellar Magnesium to Silicon ratio in the atmosphere of an exoplanet

The elemental compositions of exoplanets encode information about their formation environments and internal structures. While volatile ratios such as carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) are used to trace formation location, the rock-forming elements - magnesium (Mg), silicon (Si), and iron (Fe) - govern interior mineralogy and are commonly assumed to reflect the host star's abundances. Yet this assumption remains largely untested. Ultra-hot Jupiters, gas-giant exoplanets with dayside temperatures above 3000 K, provide rare access to refractory elements that remain gaseous. Here we present high-resolution thermal emission spectroscopy of the exoplanet WASP-189b (Teq = 3354^{+27}_{-34} K) obtained with the Immersion Grating Infrared Spectrometer (IGRINS) on Gemini South. We detect neutral iron (Fe I), magnesium (Mg I), silicon (Si I), water (H_2O), carbon monoxide (CO), and hydroxyl (OH) at signal-to-noise ratios exceeding 4, and retrieve their elemental abundances. We show that the Mg/Si, Fe/Mg, and Si/Fe ratios are consistent with stellar values, while the refractory-to-volatile ratio is enhanced by roughly a factor of ~2. These findings demonstrate that giant-planet atmospheres can preserve stellar-like rock-forming ratios, providing an empirical validation of the stellar-proxy assumption that underpins planetary composition and formation models across exoplanet systems.

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arXiv2025

Horizontal and vertical exoplanet thermal structure from a JWST spectroscopic eclipse map

Highly-irradiated giant exoplanets known as "ultra-hot Jupiters" are anticipated to exhibit large variations of atmospheric temperature and chemistry as a function of longitude, latitude, and altitude. Previous observations have hinted at these variations, but the existing data have been fundamentally restricted to probing hemisphere-integrated spectra, thereby providing only coarse information on atmospheric gradients. Here we present a spectroscopic eclipse map of an extrasolar planet, resolving the atmosphere in multiple dimensions simultaneously. We analyze a secondary eclipse of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-18b observed with the NIRISS instrument on JWST. The mapping reveals weaker longitudinal temperature gradients than were predicted by theoretical models, indicating the importance of hydrogen dissociation and/or nightside clouds in shaping global thermal emission. Additionally, we identify two thermally distinct regions of the planet's atmosphere: a "hotspot" surrounding the substellar point and a "ring" near the dayside limbs. The hotspot region shows a strongly inverted thermal structure due to the presence of optical absorbers and a water abundance marginally lower than the hemispheric average, in accordance with theoretical predictions. The ring region shows colder temperatures and poorly constrained chemical abundances. Similar future analyses will reveal three-dimensional thermal, chemical, and dynamical properties of a broad range of exoplanet atmospheres.

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arXiv2025

Mapping the SO2 Shoreline in Gas Giant Exoplanets

JWST has revealed sulfur chemistry in giant exoplanet atmospheres, where molecules such as SO2 trace photochemistry, metallicity, and formation and migration. To ascertain the conditions that determine whether (or how much) SO2, H2S, and other sulfur-bearing species are present in exoplanet atmospheres, we present a grid of planetary atmospheres covering metallicities from 0.3-1000x Solar and temperatures from 250-2050 K. These models map out the 'SO2 shoreline,' the region of metallicity and irradiation for which SO2 may be sufficiently abundant to be detectable. SO2 is a sensitive indicator of metallicity; expected SO2 abundances also depend strongly on overall temperature and C/O ratio; the SO2 abundance depends surprisingly weakly on XUV irradiation, also weakly on Kzz (for Teq > 600 K), and is essentially independent of internal temperature. Despite its detection in a growing number of giant planets, SO2 is never the dominant sulfur-bearing molecule: depending on temperature and metallicity, H2S, S2, NS, SO, SH, and even S8 or atomic S are frequently as common (or more so) as SO2. Nonetheless SO2 remains the most easily detectable sulfur-bearing species, followed by H2S, though perhaps SO and SH could be detectable in some gas giants. Aside from a pressing need for additional observational constraints on sulfur, we also identify the need for future work to account for the effects of clouds and hazes, fully self-consistent atmospheric models, 2D and 3D models, a wider range of planetary masses and radii, and studies to measure and refine reaction rates and molecular opacities of sulfur-bearing species

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arXiv2025

Volcanic Satellites Tidally Venting Na, K, SO2 in Optical & Infrared Light

Recent infrared spectroscopy from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has spurred analyses of common volcanic gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), alongside alkali metals sodium (Na I) and potassium (K I) surrounding the hot Saturn WASP-39 b. We report more than an order-of-magnitude of variability in the density of neutral Na, K, and SO2 between ground-based measurements and JWST, at distinct epochs, hinting at exogenic physical processes similar to those sourcing Io's extended atmosphere and torus. Tidally-heated volcanic satellite simulations sputtering gas into a cloud or toroid orbiting the planet, are able to reproduce the probed line-of-sight column density variations. The estimated SO2 flux is consistent with tidal gravitation predictions, with a Na/SO2 ratio far smaller than Io's. Although stable satellite orbits at this system are known to be < 15.3 hours, several high-resolution alkali Doppler shift observations are required to constrain a putative orbit. Due to the Roche limit interior to the planetary photosphere at ~ 8 hours, atmosphere-exosphere interactions are expected to be especially important at this system.

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arXiv2025

Aligned Stellar Obliquities for Two Hot Jupiter-hosting M Dwarfs Revealed by MAROON-X: Implications for Hot Jupiter Formation

Hot Jupiters (HJs) are $2-3\times$ less common around early M dwarfs than around AFGK stars, suggesting that HJs may form and/or migrate via distinct pathways around different types of stars. One source of insight into HJ formation mechanisms is to trace their dynamical histories through measurements of host stellar obliquities via the Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) effect. Here we present measurements of the RM effect for the HJs TOI-3714 b and TOI-5293 A b using the Gemini-North/MAROON-X spectrograph. Our measurements represent just the second and third hot Jupiters around M dwarfs (HJMD) with a detection of the RM effect. We find that both systems are well-aligned with sky-projected obliquities of $λ= 21^{+14}_{-11}$$\mathrm{^{\circ}}$ and $-12^{+19}_{-14}$$\mathrm{^{\circ}}$ and deprojected obliquities of $ψ= 26^{+11}_{-10}$$\mathrm{^{\circ}}$ and $24^{+11}_{-10}$$\mathrm{^{\circ}}$ for TOI-3714 and TOI-5293 A, respectively. Both stars are in wide binary systems. We refine the stellar parameters by decontaminating their unresolved $K_s$-band photometry and constrain the binary orbits using Gaia DR3 astrometry. We find that the minimum mutual inclination of the planet and binary companion in the TOI-5293 system is sufficiently large to drive Kozai-Lidov (KL) migration while the result for TOI-3714 is inconclusive. We present a population-level analysis of HJs around AFGK versus early M dwarfs and argue that KL migration is more efficient around the latter, which is expected to produce misaligned stellar obliquities in HJMD systems in the absence of efficient tidal damping. The emerging population of well-aligned HJMD hosts supports the expectation that M dwarfs, with their deep convective envelopes, do efficiently dampen misaligned obliquities.

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arXiv2025

The Roasting Marshmallows Program with IGRINS on Gemini South III: Seeing deeper into the metal depleted atmosphere of a gas-giant on the cusp of the hot to ultra-hot Jupiter transition

Ultra-hot Jupiters are a class of gas-giant exoplanets that show a peculiar combination of thermochemical properties in the form of molecular dissociation, atomic ionization, and inverted thermal structures. Atmospheric characterization of gas giants lying in the transitional regime between hot and ultra-hot Jupiters can help in understanding the physical mechanisms that cause the fundamental transition in atmospheres between the two classes of hot gas giants. Using Doppler spectroscopy with IGRINS on Gemini South (1.4 to 2.5 $μ$m), we present the day-side high-resolution spectrum of WASP-122b (T$_{\mathrm{day}}$=2258$ \pm$ 54 K), a gas-giant situated at this transition. We detect the signal from H$_{2}$O, based on which we find that WASP-122b has a significantly metal-depleted atmosphere with metallicity log$_{10}$[Z$_{\mathrm{P}}$/Z$_{\odot}$] = $-$1.48$\pm$0.25 dex (0.033$_{-0.016}^{+0.018}$ $\times$ solar), and solar/sub-solar C/O ratio = 0.36$\pm$0.22 (3$σ$ upper limit 0.82). Drastically low atmospheric metallicity pushes the contribution function to higher pressures, resulting in the planetary spectral lines to originate from a narrow region around 1 bar where the thermal profile is non-inverted. This is inconsistent with solar composition radiative convective equilibrium (RCTE) which predicts an inverted atmosphere with spectral lines in emission. The sub-solar metallicity and solar/sub-solar C/O ratio is inconsistent with expectations from core-accretion. We find the planetary signal to be significantly shifted in K$_{\mathrm{P}}$ and V$_{\mathrm{sys}}$, which is in tension with the predictions from global circulation models and require further investigation. Our results highlight the detailed information content of high-resolution spectroscopy data and their ability to constrain complex atmospheric thermal structures and compositions of exoplanets.

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arXiv2025

Enabling Robust Exoplanet Atmospheric Retrievals with Gaussian Processes

Atmospheric retrievals are essential tools for interpreting exoplanet transmission and eclipse spectra, enabling quantitative constraints on the chemical composition, aerosol properties, and thermal structure of planetary atmospheres. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) offers unprecedented spectral precision, resolution, and wavelength coverage, unlocking transformative insights into the formation, evolution, climate, and potential habitability of planetary systems. However, this opportunity is accompanied by challenges: modeling assumptions and unaccounted-for noise or signal sources can bias retrieval outcomes and their interpretation. To address these limitations, we introduce a Gaussian Process (GP)-aided atmospheric retrieval framework that flexibly accounts for unmodeled features and correlated noise in exoplanet spectra. We validate this method on synthetic JWST observations and show that GP-aided retrievals reduce bias in inferred abundances and better capture model-data mismatches than traditional approaches. We also introduce the concept of mean squared error to quantify the trade-off between bias and variance, arguing that this metric more accurately reflects retrieval performance than bias alone. We then reanalyze the NIRISS/SOSS JWST transmission spectrum of WASP-96 b, finding that GP-aided retrievals yield broader constraints on CO2 and H2O, possibly alleviating tension between previous retrieval results and equilibrium predictions. Our GP framework provides precise and accurate constraints while highlighting regions where models fail to explain the data. As JWST matures and future facilities come online, a deeper understanding of the limitations of both data and models will be essential, and GP-enabled retrievals like the one presented here offer a principled path forward.

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arXiv2025

A Precise Metallicity and Carbon-to-Oxygen Ratio for a Warm Giant Exoplanet from its Panchromatic JWST Emission Spectrum

WASP-80 b, a warm sub-Jovian (equilibrium temperature ~820 K, 0.5 Jupiter masses), presents an opportunity to characterize a rare gas giant exoplanet around a low-mass star. In addition, its moderate temperature enables its atmosphere to host a range of carbon and oxygen species (H$_2$O, CH$_4$, CO, CO$_2$, NH$_3$). In this paper, we present a panchromatic emission spectrum of WASP-80 b, the first gas giant around a late K/early M-dwarf star and the coolest planet for which the James Webb Space Telescope has obtained a complete emission spectrum spanning 2.4-12 $μ$m, including NIRCam F322W2 (2.4-4 $μ$m) and F444W (4-5 $μ$m), and MIRI LRS (5-12 $μ$m). We report confident detections of H$_2$O, CH$_4$, CO, and CO$_2$, and a tentative detection of NH$_3$. We estimate WASP-80 b's atmospheric metallicity and carbon-to-oxygen ratio and compare them with estimates for other gas giants. Despite the relative rarity of giant planets around low-mass stars, we find that WASP-80 b's composition is consistent with other hot gas giants, suggesting that the formation pathway of WASP-80 b may not be dissimilar from hot gas giants around higher-mass stars.

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arXiv2025

On Linking Planet Formation Models, Protoplanetary Disk Properties, and Mature Gas Giant Exoplanet Atmospheres

Measuring a single elemental ratio (e.g., carbon-to-oxygen) provides insufficient information for understanding the formation mechanisms and evolution that affect our observations of gas giant planet atmospheres. Although the fields of planet formation, protoplanetary disks, and exoplanets are well established and interconnected, our understanding of how to self-consistently and accurately link the theoretical and observational aspects of these fields together is lacking. To foster interdisciplinary conversations, the Max-Planck Institut für Astronomie (MPIA) hosted a week-long workshop called, "Challenge Accepted: Linking Planet Formation with Present-Day Atmospheres." Here, we summarize the latest theories and results in planet formation modeling, protoplanetary disk observations, and atmospheric observations of gas giant atmospheres to address one of the challenges of hosting interdisciplinary conferences: ensuring everyone is aware of the state-of-the-art results and technical language from each discipline represented. Additionally, we highlight key discussions held at the workshop. Our main conclusion is that it is unclear what the ideal observable is to make this link between formation scenarios and exoplanet atmospheres, whether it be multiple elemental abundance ratios, measuring refractory budgets, or something else. Based on discussions held throughout the workshop, we provide several key takeaways of what the workshop attendees feel need the most improvement and exploration within each discipline.

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arXiv2025

A Panchromatic Characterization of the Evening and Morning Atmosphere of WASP-107 b: Composition and Cloud Variations, and Insight into the Effect of Stellar Contamination

Limb-resolved transmission spectroscopy has the potential to transform our understanding of exoplanetary atmospheres. By separately measuring the transmission spectra of the evening and morning limbs, these atmospheric regions can be individually characterized, shedding light into the global distribution and transport of key atmospheric properties from transit observations alone. In this work, we follow up the recent detection of limb asymmetry on the exoplanet WASP-107 b (Murphy et al. 2024) by reanalyzing literature observations of WASP-107 b using all of JWST's science intruments (NIRISS, NIRCam, NIRSpec, and MIRI) to measure its limb transmission spectra from $\sim$1-12 $μ$m. We confirm the evening--morning temperature difference inferred previously and find that it is qualitatively consistent with predictions from global circulation models. We find evidence for evening--morning variation in SO$_2$ and CO$_2$ abundance, and significant cloud coverage only on WASP-107 b's morning limb. We find that the NIRISS and NIRSpec observations are potentially contaminated by occulted starspots, which we leverage to investigate stellar contamination's impact on limb asymmetry measurements. We find that starspot crossings can significantly bias the inferred evening and morning transmission spectra depending on when they occur during the transit, and develop a simple correction model which successfully brings these instruments' spectra into agreement with the uncontaminated observations.

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arXiv2025

HST Transmission Spectra of the Hot-Neptune HD 219666 b: Detection of Water and the Challenge of Constraining Both Water and Methane

Although Neptunian-sized (2 - 5 R$_{Earth}$) planets appear to be extremely common in the Galaxy, many mysteries remain about their overall nature. To date, only 11 Neptunian-sized planets have had their atmospheres spectroscopically characterized, and these observations hint at interesting diversity within this class of planets. Much of our understanding of these worlds and others derive from transmission spectroscopy with the Hubble Space Telescope's Wide Field Camera 3 (HST/WFC3). One key outcome of HST/WFC3 observations has been the consistent detection of water but no methane in Neptunian atmospheres, though recent James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations are potentially starting to overturn this "missing methane" paradigm. In this work, we present the transmission spectrum of the hot Neptune HD 219666 b from 1.1 - 1.6 $μ$m from two transit observations using HST/WFC3 G141. Our fiducial atmospheric retrieval detects water at ~3-$σ$ in HD 219666 b's atmosphere and prefers no contribution from methane, similar to these previous observations of other planets. Motivated by recent detections of methane in Neptunian atmospheres by JWST, we explore additional models and find that a methane-only scenario could adequately fit the data, though it is not preferred and likely unphysical. We discuss the impact of this methane detection challenge on our understanding of planetary atmospheres based on HST/WFC3 observations alone, and where JWST observations offer a solution.

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arXiv2025

Escaping Helium and a Highly Muted Spectrum Suggest a Metal-Enriched Atmosphere on Sub-Neptune GJ3090b from JWST Transit Spectroscopy

Sub-Neptunes, the most common planet type, remain poorly understood. Their atmospheres are expected to be diverse, but their compositions are challenging to determine, even with JWST. Here, we present the first JWST spectroscopic study of the warm sub-Neptune GJ3090b (2.13R$_\oplus$, Teq~700 K) which orbits an M2V star, making it a favourable target for atmosphere characterization. We observed four transits of GJ3090b; two each using JWST NIRISS/SOSS and NIRSpec/G395H, yielding wavelength coverage from 0.6-5.2 $μ$m. We detect the signature of the 10833 Å metastable Helium triplet at a statistical significance of 5.5$σ$ with an amplitude of 434$\pm$79 ppm, marking the first such detection in a sub-Neptune with JWST. This amplitude is significantly smaller than predicted by solar-metallicity forward models, suggesting a metal-enriched atmosphere which decreases the mass-loss rate and attenuates the Helium feature amplitude. Moreover, we find that stellar contamination, in the form of the transit light source effect, dominates the NIRISS transmission spectra, with unocculted spot and faculae properties varying across the two visits separated in time by approximately six months. Free retrieval analyses on the NIRSpec/G395H spectrum find tentative evidence for highly muted features and a lack of CH4. These findings are best explained by a high metallicity atmosphere (>100x solar at 3$σ$ confidence, for clouds at $\sim μ$bar pressures) using chemically-consistent retrievals and self-consistent model grids. Further observations of GJ3090b are needed for tighter constraints on the atmospheric abundances, and to gain a deeper understanding of the processes that led to its potential metal enrichment.

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