arXiv subjects

Luka C. Popovic

Publications and source records attributed to Luka C. Popovic.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Conditional Neural Process for non-parametric modeling of AGN light curve

The consequences of complex disturbed environments in the vicinity of a supermassive black hole are not well represented by standard statistical models of optical variability in active galactic nuclei (AGN). Thus, developing new methodologies for investigating and modeling AGN light curves is crucial. Conditional Neural Processes (CNPs) are nonlinear function models that forecast stochastic time-series based on a finite amount of known data without the use of any additional parameters or prior knowledge (kernels). We provide a CNP algorithm that is specifically designed for simulating AGN light curves. It was trained using data from the All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae, which included 153 AGN. We present CNP modeling performance for a subsample of five AGNs with distinctive difficult-to-model properties. The performance of CNP in predicting temporal flux fluctuation was assessed using a minimizing loss function, and the results demonstrated the algorithm's usefulness. Our preliminary parallelization experiments show that CNP can efficiently handle large amounts of data. These results imply that CNP can be more effective than standard tools in modeling large volumes of AGN data (as anticipated from time-domain surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time).

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arXiv2021

On possible proxies of AGN light curves cadence selection in future time domain surveys

Motivated by upcoming photometric and spectroscopic surveys (Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), Manuakea Spectroscopic Explorer), we design the statistical proxies to measure the cadence effects on active galactic nuclei (AGN) variability-observables (time-lags, periodicity, and structure-function (SF)). We constructed a multiple-regression model to statistically identify the cadence-formal error pattern knowing AGN time-lags and periodicity from different surveys. We defined the simple metric for the SF's properties, accounting for the 'observed' SF's deviation relative to those obtained from the homogenously-sampled light curves. We tested the regression models on different observing strategies: the optical dataset of long light-curves of eight AGN with peculiarities and the artificial datasets based on several idealized and LSST-like cadences. The SFs metric is assessed on synthetic datasets. The regression models (for both data types) predict similar cadences for time-lags and oscillation detection, whereas for light curves with low variability ($\sim 10\%$), cadences for oscillation detection differ. For higher variability ($\sim20\%$), predicted cadences are larger than for $F_{var}\sim 10\%$. The predicted cadences are decreasing with redshift. SFs with dense and homogenous cadences are more likely to behave similarly. SFs with oscillatory signals are sensitive to the cadences, possibly impacting LSST-like operation strategy. The proposed proxies can help to select spectroscopic and photometric-surveys cadence strategies, and they will be tested further in larger samples of objects.

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arXiv2021

LSST AGN SC Cadence Note: Two metrics on AGN variability observable

We have developed two metrics related to AGN variability observables (time-lags, periodicity, and Structure Function (SF)) to evaluate LSST OpSim FBS 1.5, 1.6, 1.7 performance in AGN time-domain analysis. For this purpose, we generate an ensemble of AGN light curves based on AGN empirical relations and LSST OpSim cadences. Although our metrics show that denser LSST cadences produce more reliable time-lag, periodicity, and SF measurements, the discrepancies in the performance between different LSST OpSim cadences are not drastic based on Kullback-Leibler divergence. This is complementary to Yu and Richards results on DCR and SF metrics, extending them to include the point of view of AGN variability.

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arXiv2021

AGN STORM 2: I. First results: A Change in the Weather of Mrk 817

We present the first results from the ongoing, intensive, multi-wavelength monitoring program of the luminous Seyfert 1 galaxy Mrk 817. While this AGN was, in part, selected for its historically unobscured nature, we discovered that the X-ray spectrum is highly absorbed, and there are new blueshifted, broad and narrow UV absorption lines, which suggest that a dust-free, ionized obscurer located at the inner broad line region partially covers the central source. Despite the obscuration, we measure UV and optical continuum reverberation lags consistent with a centrally illuminated Shakura-Sunyaev thin accretion disk, and measure reverberation lags associated with the optical broad line region, as expected. However, in the first 55 days of the campaign, when the obscuration was becoming most extreme, we observe a de-coupling of the UV continuum and the UV broad emission line variability. The correlation recovers in the next 42 days of the campaign, as Mrk 817 enters a less obscured state. The short CIV and Ly alpha lags suggest that the accretion disk extends beyond the UV broad line region.

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arXiv2020

Differential interferometry of close binary of supermassive black holes in an elliptical configuration

The Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI), and the Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) will be a robust astrophysics suite offering the opportunity of probing the structure and dynamics of CB-SMBH at high spectral and angular resolution. Here, we explore and illustrate the application of differential interferometry on unresolved the CB-SMBH systems in elliptical orbital configurations and a single SMBH with clouds in elliptical orbital motion. Photocenter displacements between each SMBH and regions in their disc-like broad line regions (BLR) appear as small interferometric differential phase variability. To investigate the application of interferometric phases for the detection of CB-SMBH systems, we simulate a series of differential interferometry signatures, based on our model comprising ensembles of clouds surrounding each of supermassive black hole in a CB-SMBH. Setting model to the parameters of a single SMBH with elliptical cloud motion, we also calculated a series of differential interferometry observables for this case. We found various deviations from the canonical S-shaped of CB-SMBH phases profile for elliptically configured CB-SMBH systems. The amplitude and specific shape of the interferometry observables depend on orbital configurations of the CB-SMBH system. We get distinctive results when considering antialigned angular momenta of cloud orbits regarding total CB-SMBH angular momentum. Some simulated spectral lines from our model closely resemble observations of Pa αline got from near-infrared AGN surveys. We found differences between differential phases zoo of a single SMBH and CB-SMBH systems. The differential phases zoo for a single SMBH comprises deformed S shape. We also showed how their differential phase shape, amplitude, and slope evolve with various sets of cloud orbital parameters and observer position.

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arXiv2020

Two-dimensional correlation analysis of periodicity in active galactic nuclei time series

The active galactic nuclei (AGN) are among the most powerful sources with an inherent, pronounced and random variation of brightness. The randomness of their time series is so subtle as to blur the border between aperiodic fluctuations and noisy oscillations. This poses challenges to analysing of such time series because neither visual inspection nor pre-exisitng methods can identify well oscillatory signals in them. Thus, there is a need for an objective method for periodicity detection. Here we review our a new data analysis method that combines a two-dimensional correlation (2D) of time series with the powerful methods of Gaussian processes. To demonstrate the utility of this technique, we apply it to two example problems which were not exploited enough: damped rednoised artificial time series mimicking AGN time series and newly published observed time series of changing look AGN (CL AGN) NGC 3516. The method successfully detected periodicities in both types of time series. Identified periodicity of $\sim 4$ yr in NGC 3516 allows us to speculate that if the thermal instability formed in its accretion disc (AD) on a time scale resembling detected periodicity then AD radius could be $\sim 0.0024$ pc.

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arXiv2020

Confirmed short periodic variability of subparsec supermassive binary black hole candidate Mrk 231

Here we confirm the short periodic variability of a subparsec supermassive binary black hole (SMBBH) candidate Mrk 231 in the extended optical photometric data set collected by the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey (CRTS) and All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae (ASAS-SN). Using the Lomb-Scargle periodogram and 2DHybrid method, we detected the significant periodicity of ~ 1.1 yr beyond a damped random walk model in the CRTS+ASAS-SN optical data set. Mrk 231 has been previously proposed as a SMBBH candidate with a highly unequal mass ratio (q~ 0.03), very tight mutual separation of ~590 AU, and an orbital period of ~1.2 yr. Hence, our result further supports, even though not prove, the intriguing hypothesis that SMBBHs with low mass ratios may be more common than close-equal mass SMBBHs. This result, however, was obtained from the contribution of CRTS data with limited sampling cadence and photometric accuracy, and further monitoring of Mrk 231 is crucial to confirm the periodicity.

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arXiv2019

A Possible ~20 yr Periodicity in Long-term Optical Photometric and Spectral Variations of the Nearby Radio-Quiet Active Galactic Nucleus Ark 120

We study the long-term variability in the optical monitoring database of Ark~120, a nearby radio-quiet active galactic nucleus (AGN) at a distance of 143 Mpc (z=0.03271). We compiled the historical archival photometric and spectroscopic data since 1974 and conducted a new two-year monitoring campaign in 2015-2017, resulting in a total temporal baseline over four decades. The long-term variations in the optical continuum exhibit a wave-like pattern and the Hbeta integrated flux series varies with a similar behavior. The broad Hbeta profiles have asymmetric double peaks, which change strongly with time and tend to merge into a single peak during some epochs. The period in the optical continuum determined from various period-search methods is about 20 yr and the estimated false alarm probability with null hypothesis simulations is about 1*10^-3. The overall variations of the broad Hbeta profiles also follow the same period. However, the present database only covers two cycles of the suggested period, which strongly encourages continued monitoring to track more cycles and confirm the periodicity. Nevertheless, in light of the possible periodicity and the complicated Hbeta profile, Ark~120 is one candidate of the nearest radio-quiet AGNs with possible periodic variability, and it is thereby a potential candidate host for a sub-parsec supermassive black hole binary.

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arXiv2018

The optical variability of Supermassive Black Hole Binary Candidate PG1302-102: Periodicity and perturbation in the light curve

The photometric light curve of PG1302-102 shows periodic variability which makes this object one of the most plausible supermassive black hole binary candidate. Interestingly, the most recent study of its updated optical light curve reports a decrease in significance of periodicity which may suggest that the binary model is less favorable. Here, we model the PG 1302-102 light curve, spanning almost 20 years, with a supermassive black hole binary system in which a perturbation in the accretion disk of more massive component is present. Our model reproduces well the observed light curve with a slight perturbation of a sinusoidal feature and predicts that a slightly larger period than previously reported, of about 1899 days, could arise due to a cold spot in the disk of {\bf more massive} component of a close, unequal-mass ($\frac{\mathrm{m}_{1}}{\mathrm{m}_{2}}=0.1$) black hole binary system. The light curve resembles the pattern of sinusoid-like shape within a few years, which could be confirmed by future observations. In addition, using our hybrid method for periodicity detection, we show that the periods in the observed ($1972\pm 254$ days) and modeled ($1873 \pm \ 250$ days) light curves are within one-sigma, which is also consistent with our physical model prediction and with previous findings. Thus, both the periodic nature and its slight fluctuation of the light curve of PG1302-102 is evident from our physical model and confirmed by the hybrid method for periodicity detection.

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arXiv2018

Black hole mass measurements in AGN: Polarization in broad emission lines

We present a new method for supermassive black hole (SMBH) mass measurements in Type 1 active galactic nuclei (AGN) using polarization angle across broad lines. This method gives measured masses which are in a good agreement with reverberation estimates. Additionally, we explore the possibilities and limits of this method using the STOKES radiative transfer code taking a dominant Keplerian motion in the broad line region (BLR). We found that this method can be used for the direct SMBH mass estimation in the cases when in addition to the Kepler motion, radial inflows or vertical outflows are present in the BLR. Some advantages of the method are discussed.

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arXiv2018

Long-term monitoring of the broad-line region properties in a selected sample of AGN

We present the results of the long-term optical monitoring campaign of active galactic nuclei (AGN) coordinated by the Special Astrophysical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Science. This campaign has produced a remarkable set of optical spectra, since we have monitored for several decades different types of broad-line (type 1) AGN, from a Seyfert 1, double-peaked line, radio loud and radio quiet AGN, to a supermassive binary black hole candidate. Our analysis of the properties of the broad line region (BLR) of these objects is based on the variability of the broad emission lines. We hereby give a comparative review of the variability properties of the broad emission lines and the BLR of seven different type 1 AGNs, emphasizing some important results, such as the variability rate, the BLR geometry, and the presence of the intrinsic Baldwin effect. We are discussing the difference and similarity in the continuum and emission line variability, focusing on what is the impact of our results to the supermassive black hole mass determination from the BLR properties.

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arXiv2017

Oscillatory patterns in the light curves of 5 long-term monitored type 1 AGN

A new combined data of 5 well known type 1 AGN are probed with a novel hybrid method in a search for oscillatory behavior. Additional analysis of artificial light curves obtained from the coupled oscillatory models gives confirmation for detected periods that could have physical background. We find periodic variations in the long-term light curves of 3C 390.3, NGC 4151, NGC 5548 and E1821+643, with correlation coefficients larger than 0.6. We show that oscillatory patterns of two binary black hole candidates NGC 5548 and E1821+643 corresponds to qualitatively different dynamical regimes of chaos and stability, respectively. We demonstrate that absence of oscillatory patterns in Arp 102B could be due to a weak coupling between oscillatory mechanisms. This is the first good evidence that 3C 390.3 and Arp 102B, categorized as double-peaked Balmer line objects, have qualitative different dynamics. Our analysis shows a novelty in the oscillatory dynamical patterns of the light curves of these type 1 AGN.

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arXiv2017

The intrinsic Baldwin effect in broad Balmer lines of six long-term monitored AGNs

We investigate the intrinsic Baldwin effect (Beff) of the broad H$α$ and H$β$ emission lines for six Type 1 active galactic nuclei (AGNs) with different broad line characteristics: two Seyfert 1 (NGC 4151 and NGC 5548), two AGNs with double-peaked broad line profiles (3C 390.3 and Arp 102B), one narrow line Seyfert 1 (Ark 564), and one high-luminosity quasar with highly red asymmetric broad line profiles (E1821+643). We found that a significant intrinsic Beff was present in all Type 1 AGNs in our sample. Moreover, we do not see strong difference in intrinsic Beff slopes in different types of AGNs which probably have different physical properties, such as inclination, broad line region geometry, or accretion rate. Additionally, we found that the intrinsic Beff was not connected with the global one, which, instead, could not be detected in the broad H$α$ or H$β$ emission lines. In the case of NGC 4151, the detected variation of the Beff slope could be due to the change in the site of line formation in the BLR. Finally, the intrinsic Beff might be caused by the additional optical continuum component that is not part of the ionization continuum.

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arXiv2017

Periodicity in the continua and broad line curves of a quasar E1821+643

Here we present an in-depth analysis of the periodicity of the continua and broad emission lines of a quasar E1821+643. We applied non-parametric composite models, the linear sum of stationary and non-stationary Gaussian processes, and quantified contribution of their periodic parts. We found important qualitative differences among the three periodic signals. Periods of $\sim 2200$ and $\sim 4500$ days appear in both continua 5100 Å\, and 4200 Å\,, as well as in the H$γ$ emission line. Their integer ratio is nearly harmonic $\sim \frac{1}{2}$, suggesting the same physical origin. We discuss the nature of these periods, proposing that the system of two objects in dynamically interaction can be origin of two largest periods.

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arXiv2016

Virilization of the Broad Line Region in Active Galactic Nuclei - connection between shifts and widths of broad emission lines

We investigate the virilization of the emission lines Hbeta and Mg II in the sample of 287 Type 1 Active Galactic Nuclei taken from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey database. We explore the connections between the intrinsic line shifts and full widths at different levels of maximal intensity. We found that: (i) Hbeta seems to be a good virial estimator of black hole masses, and an intrinsic redshift of Hbeta is dominantly caused by the gravitational effect, (ii) there is an anti-correlation between the redshift and width of the wings of the Mg II line, (iii) the broad Mg II line can be used as virial estimator only at 50% of the maximal intensity, while the widths and intrinsic shifts of the line wings can not be used for this purpose.

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arXiv2016

The UV and optical Fe II emission lines in type 1 AGNs

We investigate the spectral properties of the UV ($λλ$2650-3050 Å) and optical ($λλ$4000-5500 Å) Fe II emission features in a sample of 293 type 1 active galactic nuclei (AGNs) from Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) database. We explore different correlations between their emission line properties, as well as the correlations with the other emission lines from the spectral range. We find several interesting correlations and we can outline the most interesting results as follows. (i) There is a kinematical connection between the UV and optical Fe II lines, indicating that the UV and optical Fe II lines originate from the outer part of the broad line region, so-called intermediate line region; (ii) The unexplained anticorrelations of the optical Fe II (EW Fe II$_{opt}$) versus EW [O III] 5007 Å and EW Fe II$_{opt}$ versus FWHM Hbeta have not been detected for the UV Fe II lines; (iii) The significant averaged redshift in the UV Fe II lines, which is not present in optical Fe II, indicates an inflow in the UV Fe II emitting clouds, and probably their asymmetric distribution. (iv) Also, we confirm the anticorrelation between the intensity ratio of the optical and UV Fe II lines and FWHM of Hbeta, and we find the anticorrelations of this ratio with the widths of Mg II 2800 Å, optical Fe II and UV Fe II. This indicates a very important role for the column density and microturbulence in the emitting gas. We discuss the starburst activity in high-density regions of young AGNs as a possible explanation of the detected optical Fe II correlations and intensity line ratios of the UV and optical Fe II lines.

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arXiv2016

Line shifts and sub-pc super-massive binary black holes

Here we discuss the possibility of super-massive binary black hole (SMBBH) detection, using the shifts of the broad lines emitted from a binary system. We perform a number of simulations of shapes and shifts of $H_β$ lines emitted from SMBBHs, taking into account the emission from two different regions located around both black holes, and kinematical effects which should be present in a SMBBH. In the model we connect the parameters of the lines with the mass of black holes and find that the peak shift depends, not only on kinematical effects of system rotation and black hole mass ratio, but it is also a function of the individual masses of the two black holes (BHs).

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arXiv2015

On the time delay evolution of five Active Galactic Nuclei

Here we investigate light curves of the continuum and emission lines of five type 1 active galactic nuclei (AGN) from our monitoring campaign, to test time-evolution of their time delays.Using both modeled and observed AGN light curves we apply Gaussian-kernel based estimator to capture variation of local patterns of their time evolving delays. The largest variations of time delays of all objects occur in the period when continuum or emission lines luminosity is the highest. However, Gaussian kernel based method shows instability in the case of NGC 5548, 3C 390.3, E1821+643 and NGC 4051 possible due to numerical discrepancies between Damped Random Walk (DRW) time scale of light curves and sliding time windows of the method. The temporal variations of time lags of Arp 102B can correspond to the real nature of the time lag evolution.

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