arXiv subjects

M. P. Hobson

Publications and source records attributed to M. P. Hobson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Dynamic or Systematic? Bayesian model selection between dark energy and supernova biases

The Dark Energy Survey 5-year (DES-5Y) supernovae, combined with Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) baryon acoustic oscillations, appear to favour Chevallier-Polarski-Linder $(w_0, w_a)$ dynamical dark energy over $Λ$CDM. It has been suggested in other work that this is driven by a systematic in the DES pipeline, which particularly affects the low-redshift supernovae brought in from legacy surveys. It is difficult to investigate these data in isolation, however, as the complicated supernovae pipelines must properly account for selection effects. In this work, we discover that a magnitude offset between the low- and high-redshift supernovae is favoured by the Bayesian evidence over the flexknot dark energy found in our previous work. In addition, we find that the possible tension between DES-5Y and DESI is significantly reduced by such an offset. The recent DES-Dovekie recalibration partially alleviates this tension, but does not eliminate it. We also take the opportunity to trial Nested Bridge Sampling with Sequential Monte Carlo as an alternative method for calculating Bayes factors.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Tilting the scales: weighing prior dependency and global tensions of CMB lensing

We provide a nested sampling analysis of the combination of CMB lensing experiments with other cosmological measurements. Nested samples can be used to compute global consistency statistics between datasets. This is demonstrated for CMB lensing and Baryon Acoustic Oscillations which are uncorrelated, and the correlated case between ACT DR6 and NPIPE lensing. We investigate the effect of the prior widths of the spectral tilt $n_\mathrm s$ used in CMB lensing analyses, which quantitatively, but not qualitatively, affect headline constraints. In the absence of informative priors, SPT-3G performs more similarly to ACT and NPIPE. Bayes factors and the suspiciousness statistic are used to quantify the possibility of tension, and we find the Gaussian assumptions inherent in calculating the suspiciousness tension probability to be unsuitable in the case of strong agreement between CMB lensing experiments.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Comparison of dynamical dark energy with ΛCDM in light of DESI DR2

We present an updated reconstruction of the dark energy equation of state, $w(a)$, using the newly released DESI DR2 Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) data in combination with Pantheon+ and DES5Y Type Ia supernovae measurements, respectively. Building on our previous analysis in arXiv:2503.08658, which employed a nonparametric flexknot reconstruction approach, we examine whether the evidence for dynamical dark energy persists with the improved precision of the DESI DR2 dataset. We find that while the overall qualitative structure of $w(a)$ remains consistent with our earlier findings, the statistical support for dynamical dark energy is reduced when considering DESI DR2 data alone, particularly for more complex flexknot models with higher numbers of knots. However, the evidence for simpler dynamical models, such as $w$CDM and CPL (which correspond to $n=1$ and $n=2$ knots respectively), increases relative to $Λ$CDM with DESI DR2 alone, with CPL being the preferred dynamical model, consistent with previous DESI analyses. When combined with Pantheon+ data, the conclusions remain broadly consistent with our earlier work, but when instead combined with DES5Y supernovae data, there is an increased preference for flexknot models for all values of $n$ considered. This results in all such models being preferred over $Λ$CDM, with the CPL model being the most favoured by a Bayes factor of $\sim 2.3$ relative to $Λ$CDM.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Nonparametric reconstructions of dynamical dark energy via flexknots

Recent cosmological surveys have provided unprecedented datasets that can be used to reconstruct the history of the dark energy equation of state. In this work, a free-form "flexknot'' parameterisation is employed to represent $w(a)$ as a linear spline between free-moving nodes, the number of which may vary. By combining DESI Baryon Acoustic Oscillation measurements with Pantheon+ or DES5Y supernovae, the functional posteriors of $w(a)$ reveal an unexpected W-shaped structure. While the Bayesian evidence may still favour $Λ$CDM, the robustness of these results suggests the structure is indeed present in the data. The tension $R$-statistic and suspiciousness have been marginalised over models, and demonstrate that while the reconstructions from DESI and Pantheon+ agree, DESI and DES5Y do not. We conclude that, while there is no smoking gun for dynamical dark energy, the structure unearthed in this work is generally too complex to be captured by the restrictive $w$CDM or CPL parameterisations.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Gravitomagnetism and galaxy rotation curves: a cautionary tale

We investigate recent claims that gravitomagnetic effects in linearised general relativity can explain flat and rising rotation curves, such as those observed in galaxies, without the need for dark matter. If one models a galaxy as an axisymmetric, stationary, rotating, non-relativistic and pressureless 'dust' of stars in the gravitoelectromagnetic (GEM) formalism, we show that GEM effects on the circular velocity $v$ of a star are $O(10^{-6})$ smaller than the standard Newtonian (gravitoelectric) effects. Moreover, we find that gravitomagnetic effects are $O(10^{-6})$ too small to provide the vertical support necessary to maintain the dynamical equilibrium assumed. These issues are obscured if one constructs a single equation for $v$, as considered previously. We nevertheless solve this equation for a galaxy having a Miyamoto--Nagai density profile. We show that for the values of the mass, $M$, and semi-major and semi-minor axes, $a$ and $b$, typical for a dwarf galaxy, the rotation curve depends only very weakly on $M$. Moreover, for aspect ratios $a/b > 2$, the rotation curves are concave over their entire range, which does not match observations in any galaxy. Most importantly, we show that for the poloidal gravitomagnetic flux $ψ$ to provide the necessary vertical support, it must become singular at the origin. This originates from the unwitting, but forbidden, inclusion of free-space solutions of the Poisson-like equation that determines $ψ$, hence ruling out the methodology as a means of explaining flat galaxy rotation curves. We further show that recent deliberate attempts to leverage such free-space solutions against the rotation curve problem yield no deterministic modification outside the thin disk approximation, and that, in any case, the homogeneous contributions to $ψ$ are ruled out by the boundary value problem posed by any physical axisymmetric galaxy.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

Does gravitational confinement sustain flat galactic rotation curves without dark matter?

The short answer is $\textit{probably no}$. Specifically, this paper considers a recent body of work which suggests that general relativity requires neither the support of dark matter halos, nor unconventional baryonic profiles, nor any infrared modification, to be consistent after all with the anomalously rapid orbits observed in many galactic discs. In particular, the gravitoelectric flux is alleged to collapse nonlinearly into regions of enhanced force, in an analogue of the colour-confining chromoelectric flux tube model which has yet to be captured by conventional post-Newtonian methods. However, we show that the scalar gravity model underpinning this proposal is wholly inconsistent with the nonlinear Einstein equations, which themselves appear to prohibit the linear confinement-type potentials which could indicate a disordered gravitational phase. Our findings challenge the fidelity of the previous Euclidean lattice analyses. We confirm by direct calculation using a number of perturbation schemes and gauges that the next-to-leading order gravitoelectric correction to the rotation curve of a reasonable baryonic profile would be imperceptible. The `gravitoelectric flux collapse' programme was also supported by using intragalactic lensing near a specific galactic baryon profile as a field strength heuristic. We recalculate this lensing effect, and conclude that it has been overstated by three orders of magnitude. As a by-product, our analysis suggests fresh approaches to (i) the fluid ball conjecture and (ii) gravitational energy localisation, both to be pursued in future work. In summary, whilst it may be interesting to consider the possibility of confinement-type effects in gravity, we may at least conclude here that confinement-type effects $\textit{cannot play any significant part}$ in explaining flat or rising galactic rotation curves without dark matter halos.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2022

COSMOPOWER: emulating cosmological power spectra for accelerated Bayesian inference from next-generation surveys

We present $\it{CosmoPower}$, a suite of neural cosmological power spectrum emulators providing orders-of-magnitude acceleration for parameter estimation from two-point statistics analyses of Large-Scale Structure (LSS) and Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) surveys. The emulators replace the computation of matter and CMB power spectra from Boltzmann codes; thus, they do not need to be re-trained for different choices of astrophysical nuisance parameters or redshift distributions. The matter power spectrum emulation error is less than $0.4\%$ in the wavenumber range $k \in [10^{-5}, 10] \, \mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$, for redshift $z \in [0, 5]$. $\it{CosmoPower}$ emulates CMB temperature, polarisation and lensing potential power spectra in the $5σ$ region of parameter space around the $\it{Planck}$ best fit values with an error $\lesssim 10\%$ of the expected shot noise for the forthcoming Simons Observatory. $\it{CosmoPower}$ is showcased on a joint cosmic shear and galaxy clustering analysis from the Kilo-Degree Survey, as well as on a Stage IV $\it{Euclid}$-like simulated cosmic shear analysis. For the CMB case, $\it{CosmoPower}$ is tested on a $\it{Planck}$ 2018 CMB temperature and polarisation analysis. The emulators always recover the fiducial cosmological constraints with differences in the posteriors smaller than sampling noise, while providing a speed-up factor up to $O(10^4)$ to the complete inference pipeline. This acceleration allows posterior distributions to be recovered in just a few seconds, as we demonstrate in the $\it{Planck}$ likelihood case. $\it{CosmoPower}$ is written entirely in Python, can be interfaced with all commonly used cosmological samplers and is publicly available at https://github.com/alessiospuriomancini/cosmopower .

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

Accelerating Bayesian microseismic event location with deep learning

We present a series of new open source deep learning algorithms to accelerate Bayesian full waveform point source inversion of microseismic events. Inferring the joint posterior probability distribution of moment tensor components and source location is key for rigorous uncertainty quantification. However, the inference process requires forward modelling of microseismic traces for each set of parameters explored by the sampling algorithm, which makes the inference very computationally intensive. In this paper we focus on accelerating this process by training deep learning models to learn the mapping between source location and seismic traces, for a given 3D heterogeneous velocity model, and a fixed isotropic moment tensor for the sources. These trained emulators replace the expensive solution of the elastic wave equation in the inference process. We compare our results with a previous study that used emulators based on Gaussian Processes to invert microseismic events. We show that all of our models provide more accurate predictions and $\sim 100$ times faster predictions than the method based on Gaussian Processes, and a $\mathcal{O}(10^5)$ speed-up factor over a pseudo-spectral method for waveform generation. For example, a 2-s long synthetic trace can be generated in $\sim 10$ ms on a common laptop processor, instead of $\sim$ 1 hr using a pseudo-spectral method on a high-profile Graphics Processing Units card. We also show that our inference results are in excellent agreement with those obtained from traditional location methods based on travel time estimates. The speed, accuracy and scalability of our open source deep learning models pave the way for extensions of these emulators to generic source mechanisms and application to joint Bayesian inversion of moment tensor components and source location using full waveforms.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2021

Nonlinear Hamiltonian analysis of new quadratic torsion theories Part I. Cases with curvature-free constraints

It was recently found that, when linearised in the absence of matter, 58 cases of the general gravitational theory with quadratic curvature and torsion are (i) free from ghosts and tachyons and (ii) power-counting renormalisable. We inspect the nonlinear Hamiltonian structure of the eight cases whose primary constraints do not depend on the curvature tensor. We confirm the particle spectra and unitarity of all these theories in the linear regime. We uncover qualitative dynamical changes in the nonlinear regimes of all eight cases, suggesting at least a broken gauge symmetry, and possibly the activation of negative kinetic energy spin-parity sectors and acausal behaviour. Two of the cases propagate a pair of massless modes at the linear level, and were interesting as candidate theories of gravity. However, we identify these modes with vector excitations, rather than the tensor polarisations of the graviton. Moreover, we show that these theories do not support a viable cosmological background.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2020

Mapping Poincaré gauge cosmology to Horndeski theory for emergent dark energy

The ten-parameter, quadratic Poincaré gauge theory of gravity is a plausible alternative to general relativity. We show that the rich background cosmology of the gauge theory is described by a non-canonical bi-scalar-tensor theory in the Jordan frame: the `metrical analogue'. This provides a unified framework for future investigation by the broader community. For many parameter choices, the non-canonical term reduces to a Cuscuton field of the form $\smash{\sqrt{|X^{ϕϕ}|}}$. The Einstein-Cartan-Kibble-Sciama theory maps to a pure quadratic Cuscuton, whereas the teleparallel theory maps to the Einstein-Hilbert Lagrangian. We apply the metrical analogue to novel unitary and power-counting-renormalisable cases of Poincaré gauge theory. These theories support the concordance $Λ$CDM background cosmology up to an optional, effective dark radiation component, we explain this behaviour in terms of a stalled Cuscuton. We also obtain two dark energy solutions from one of these cases: accelerated expansion from a negative bare cosmological constant whose magnitude is screened, and emergent dark energy to replace vanishing bare cosmological constant in $Λ$CDM.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2020

Addressing $H_0$ tension with emergent dark radiation in unitary gravity

We propose a one-parameter extension to $Λ$CDM, expected to strongly affect cosmological tensions. An effective dark radiation component in the early universe redshifts away as hot dark matter, then quintessence, tracking the dominant equation-of-state parameter and leaving a falsifiable torsion field in the current epoch. This picture results from a new Poincaré gauge theory (PGT), one of the most promising among the latest batch of 58 PGTs found to be both power-counting renormalisable and free from ghosts and tachyons. We systematically categorise the cosmologies of 33 of these PGTs, as special cases of the most general parity-preserving, Ostrogradsky-stable PGT with a purely Yang-Mills action. The theory we consider contains two propagating massless gravitons, which may be $J^P=2^+$ (long-range gravitation and gravitational waves). A conspiracy among the coupling constants eliminates the spatial curvature $k\in\{\pm 1,0\}$ from the field equations. We show that this `$k$-screening' is not restricted to conformal gravity theories. The flat Friedmann equations are then emergent, with potentially tension-resolving freedom at the early scale-invariant epoch that reliably gives way to an attractor-like state of modern $Λ$CDM evolution. We compare with related theories and promising special cases, such as $k$-screened theories with negative-definite effective $k$, and more traditional theories with effective $Λ$ and a $J^P=0^-$ massive graviton (dark matter candidate). As a bonus, we analyse similarly constrained actions in the new extended Weyl gauge theory (eWGT). We show that in cosmology, PGT and eWGT span exactly the same classical phenomenology up to a linear map between their coupling constants, hinting at a deeper relationship between the two.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2020

Dense output for highly oscillatory numerical solutions

We present a method to construct a continuous extension (otherwise known as dense output) for a numerical routine in the special case of the numerical solution being a scalar-valued function exhibiting rapid oscillations. Such cases call for numerical routines that make use of the known global behaviour of the solution, one example being methods using asymptotic expansions to forecast the solution at each step of the independent variable. An example is oscode, numerical routine which uses the Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) approximation when the solution oscillates rapidly and otherwise behaves as a Runge-Kutta (RK) solver. Polynomial interpolation is not suitable for producing the solution at an arbitrary point mid-step, since efficient numerical methods based on the WKB approximation will step through multiple oscillations in a single step. Instead we construct the continuous solution by extending the numerical quadrature used in computing a WKB approximation of the solution with no additional evaluations of the differential equation or terms within, and provide an error estimate on this dense output. Finally, we draw attention to previous work on the continuous extension of Runge-Kutta formulae, and construct an extension to a RK method based on Gauss--Lobatto quadrature nodes, thus describing how to generate dense output from each of the methods underlying oscode.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2020

Quantum initial conditions for inflation and canonical invariance

We investigate the transformation of initial conditions for primordial curvature perturbations under two types of transformations of the associated action: simultaneous redefinition of time and the field to be quantised, and the addition of surface terms. The latter encompasses all canonical transformations, whilst the time- and field-redefinition is a distinct, non-canonical transformation since the initial and destination systems use different times. Actions related to each other via such transformations yield identical equations of motion and preserve the commutator structure. They further preserve the time-evolution of expectation values of quantum operators unless the vacuum state also changes under the transformation. These properties suggest that it is of interest to investigate vacuum prescriptions that also remain unchanged under canonical transformations. We find that initial conditions derived via minimising the vacuum expectation value of the Hamiltonian and those obtained using the Danielsson vacuum prescription are not invariant under these transformations, whereas those obtained by minimising the local energy density are. We derive the range of physically distinct initial conditions obtainable by Hamiltonian diagonalisation, and illustrate their effect on the scalar primordial power spectrum and the Cosmic Microwave Background under the just enough inflation model. We also generalise the analogy between the dynamics of a quantum scalar field on a curved, time-dependent spacetime and the gauge-invariant curvature perturbation. We argue that the invariance of the vacuum prescription obtained by minimising the renormalised stress--energy tensor should make it the preferred procedure for setting initial conditions for primordial perturbations. All other procedures reviewed in this work yield ambiguous initial conditions, which is problematic both in theory and practice.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2019

An efficient method for solving highly oscillatory ordinary differential equations with applications to physical systems

We present a novel numerical routine (oscode) with a C++ and Python interface for the efficient solution of one-dimensional, second-order, ordinary differential equations with rapidly oscillating solutions. The method is based on a Runge-Kutta-like stepping procedure that makes use of the Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) approximation to skip regions of integration where the characteristic frequency varies slowly. In regions where this is not the case, the method is able to switch to a made-to-measure Runge-Kutta integrator that minimises the total number of function evaluations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the method with example solutions of the Airy equation and an equation exhibiting a burst of oscillations, discussing the error properties of the method in detail. We then show the method applied to physical systems. First, the one-dimensional, time-independent Schrödinger equation is solved as part of a shooting method to search for the energy eigenvalues for a potential with quartic anharmonicity. Then, the method is used to solve the Mukhanov-Sasaki equation describing the evolution of cosmological perturbations, and the primordial power spectrum of the perturbations is computed in different cosmological scenarios. We compare the performance of our solver in calculating a primordial power spectrum of scalar perturbations to that of BINGO, an efficient code specifically designed for such applications.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2019

Importance Nested Sampling and the MultiNest Algorithm

Bayesian inference involves two main computational challenges. First, in estimating the parameters of some model for the data, the posterior distribution may well be highly multi-modal: a regime in which the convergence to stationarity of traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques becomes incredibly slow. Second, in selecting between a set of competing models the necessary estimation of the Bayesian evidence for each is, by definition, a (possibly high-dimensional) integration over the entire parameter space; again this can be a daunting computational task, although new Monte Carlo (MC) integration algorithms offer solutions of ever increasing efficiency. Nested sampling (NS) is one such contemporary MC strategy targeted at calculation of the Bayesian evidence, but which also enables posterior inference as a by-product, thereby allowing simultaneous parameter estimation and model selection. The widely-used MultiNest algorithm presents a particularly efficient implementation of the NS technique for multi-modal posteriors. In this paper we discuss importance nested sampling (INS), an alternative summation of the MultiNest draws, which can calculate the Bayesian evidence at up to an order of magnitude higher accuracy than `vanilla' NS with no change in the way MultiNest explores the parameter space. This is accomplished by treating as a (pseudo-)importance sample the totality of points collected by MultiNest, including those previously discarded under the constrained likelihood sampling of the NS algorithm. We apply this technique to several challenging test problems and compare the accuracy of Bayesian evidences obtained with INS against those from vanilla NS.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2019

Observational constraints on conformal time symmetry, missing matter and double dark energy

The current concordance model of cosmology is dominated by two mysterious ingredients: dark matter and dark energy. In this paper, we explore the possibility that, in fact, there exist two dark-energy components: the cosmological constant $Λ$, with equation-of-state parameter $w_Λ=-1$, and a `missing matter' component $X$ with $w_X=-2/3$, which we introduce here to allow the evolution of the universal scale factor as a function of conformal time to exhibit a symmetry that relates the big bang to the future conformal singularity, such as in Penrose's conformal cyclic cosmology. Using recent cosmological observations, we constrain the present-day energy density of missing matter to be $Ω_{X,0}=-0.034 \pm 0.075$. This is consistent with the standard $Λ$CDM model, but constraints on the energy densities of all the components are considerably broadened by the introduction of missing matter; significant relative probability exists even for $Ω_{X,0} \sim 0.1$, and so the presence of a missing matter component cannot be ruled out. As a result, a Bayesian model selection analysis only slightly disfavours its introduction by 1.1 log-units of evidence. Foregoing our symmetry requirement on the conformal time evolution of the universe, we extend our analysis by allowing $w_X$ to be a free parameter. For this more generic `double dark energy' model, we find $w_X = -1.01 \pm 0.16$ and $Ω_{X,0} = -0.10 \pm 0.56$, which is again consistent with the standard $Λ$CDM model, although once more the posterior distributions are sufficiently broad that the existence of a second dark-energy component cannot be ruled out. The model including the second dark energy component also has an equivalent Bayesian evidence to $Λ$CDM, within the estimation error, and is indistinguishable according to the Jeffreys guideline.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2018

Constraining the kinetically dominated Universe

We present cosmological constraints from Planck 2015 data for a universe that is kinetically dominated at very early times. We perform a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis to estimate parameters and use nested sampling to determine the evidence for a model comparison of the single-field quadratic and Starobinsky inflationary models with the standard $Λ$CDM cosmology. In particular we investigate how different amounts of inflation before and after horizon exit affect the primordial power spectrum and subsequently the power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background. We find that the model using kinetically dominated initial conditions for inflation performs similarly well in terms of Bayesian evidence as a model directly starting out in the slow-roll phase, despite having an additional parameter. The data show a slight preference for a cutoff at large scales in the primordial and temperature power spectra.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2018

A case for kinetically dominated initial conditions for inflation

We make a case for setting initial conditions for inflation at the Planck epoch in the kinetically dominated regime. For inflationary potentials with a plateau or a hill, i.e. potentials that are bounded from above within a certain region of interest, we cannot claim complete ignorance of the energy distribution between kinetic and potential energy, and equipartition of energy at the Planck epoch becomes questionable. We analyse different classes of potentials in phase-space and quantify the fraction of the Planck surface that is kinetically dominated. For the small amplitudes of the potentials as suggested by current data, the Planck surface lies in the region of kinetic dominance for almost all values of interest of the inflaton field.

astro-ph.CO↗