arXiv subjects

Manuela Temmer

Publications and source records attributed to Manuela Temmer.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Coronal Models and Detection of Open Magnetic Field

A plethora of coronal models, from empirical to more complex magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) ones, are being used for reconstructing the coronal magnetic field topology and estimating the open magnetic flux. However, no individual solution fully agrees with coronal hole observations and in situ measurements of open flux at 1~AU, as there is a strong deficit between model and observations contributing to the known problem of the missing open flux. In this paper we investigate the possible origin of the discrepancy between modeled and observed magnetic field topology by assessing the effect on the simulation output by the choice of the input boundary conditions and the simulation set up, including the choice of numerical schemes and the parameter initialization. In the frame of this work, we considered four potential field source surface based models and one fully MHD model, different types of global magnetic field maps and model initiation parameters. After assessing the model outputs using a variety of metrics, we conclude that they are highly comparable regardless of the differences set at initiation. When comparing all models to coronal hole boundaries extracted by extreme ultraviolet (EUV) filtergrams we find that they do not compare well. This miss-match between observed and modeled regions of open field is a candidate contributing to the open flux problem.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

On the three-dimensional relation between the coronal dimming, erupting filament and CME. Case study of the 28 October 2021 X1.0 event

We investigate the relation between the spatiotemporal evolution of the dimming region and the dominant direction of the filament eruption and CME propagation for the 28 October 2021 X1.0 flare/CME event observed from multiple viewpoints by Solar Orbiter, STEREO-A, SDO, and SOHO. We propose a method to estimate the dominant dimming direction by tracking its area evolution and emphasize its accurate estimation by calculating the surface area of a sphere for each pixel. To determine the early flux rope propagation direction, we perform 3D reconstruction of the CME via graduated cylindrical shell modeling (GCS) and tie-pointing of the filament. The dimming initially expands radially and later shifts southeast. The orthogonal projections of the reconstructed height evolution of the erupting filament onto the solar surface are located in the sector of the dominant dimming growth, while the orthogonal projections of the inner part of GCS reconstruction align with the total dimming area. The filament reaches a maximum speed of $\approx$250 km/s at a height of about $\approx$180 Mm. The direction of its motion is strongly inclined from the radial (64$^\circ$ to the East, 32$^\circ$ to the South). The 50$^\circ$ difference in the 3D direction between the CME and the filament leg closely corresponds to the CME half-width determined from reconstruction, suggesting a potential relation of the reconstructed filament to the associated leg of the CME body. Our findings highlight that the dominant propagation of the dimming growth reflects the direction of the erupting magnetic structure (filament) low in the solar atmosphere, though the filament evolution is not related directly to the direction of the global CME expansion. The overall dimming morphology closely resembles the inner part of the CME reconstruction, validating the use of dimming observations to obtain insight into the CME direction.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

The need for focused, hard X-ray investigations of the Sun

Understanding the nature of energetic particles in the solar atmosphere is one of the most important outstanding problems in heliophysics. Flare-accelerated particles compose a huge fraction of the flare energy budget; they have large influences on how events develop; they are an important source of high-energy particles found in the heliosphere; and they are the single most important corollary to other areas of high-energy astrophysics. Despite the importance of this area of study, this topic has in the past decade received only a small fraction of the resources necessary for a full investigation. For example, NASA has selected no new Explorer-class instrument in the past two decades that is capable of examining this topic. The advances that are currently being made in understanding flare-accelerated electrons are largely undertaken with data from EOVSA (NSF), STIX (ESA), and NuSTAR (NASA Astrophysics). This is despite the inclusion in the previous Heliophysics decadal survey of the FOXSI concept as part of the SEE2020 mission, and also despite NASA's having invested heavily in readying the technology for such an instrument via four flights of the FOXSI sounding rocket experiment. Due to that investment, the instrumentation stands ready to implement a hard X-ray mission to investigate flare-accelerated electrons. This white paper describes the scientific motivation for why this venture should be undertaken soon.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2023

Quantifying errors in 3D CME parameters derived from synthetic data using white-light reconstruction techniques

(Shortened version) Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size and position, among others. Difficulties in determining input parameters for CME forecasting arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques. We explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the GCS reconstruction technique. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the ``true'' geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this as follows: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software, and 2) Using 3D MHD simulation data from the MAS code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. Increasing the number of viewpoints to two, the errors decreased by about 4$^\circ$ in latitude, 22$^\circ$ in longitude, 14$^\circ$ in tilt, and 10$^\circ$ in half-angle, pointing towards a need for at least two viewpoints. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: $Δθ$ (latitude)=${6^\circ}$, $Δϕ$ (longitude)=${11^\circ}$, $Δγ$ (tilt)=${25^\circ}$, $Δα$ (half-angle)=${10^\circ}$, $Δh$ (height)=$0.6 R_{\odot}$, and $Δκ$ (ratio)=$0.1$.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Acceleration and Expansion of a Coronal Mass Ejection in the High Corona: Role of Magnetic Reconnection

The important role played by magnetic reconnection in the early acceleration of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) has been widely discussed. However, as CMEs may have expansion speeds comparable to their propagation speeds in the corona, it is not clear whether and how reconnection contributes to the true acceleration and expansion separately. To address this question, we analyze the dynamics of a moderately fast CME on 2013 February 27, associated with a continuous acceleration of its front into the high corona, even though its speed had reached $\sim$700~km~s$^{-1}$ and larger than the solar wind speed. The apparent CME acceleration is found to be due to the CME expansion in the radial direction. The CME true acceleration, i.e., the acceleration of its center, is then estimated by taking into account the expected deceleration caused by the solar wind drag force acting on a fast CME. It is found that the true acceleration and the radial expansion have similar magnitudes. We find that magnetic reconnection occurs after the CME eruption and continues during the CME propagation in the high corona, which contributes to the CME dynamic evolution. Comparison between the apparent acceleration related to the expansion and the true acceleration that compensates the drag shows that, for this case, magnetic reconnection contributes almost equally to the CME expansion and to the CME acceleration. The consequences of these measurements for the evolution of CMEs as they transit from the corona to the heliosphere are discussed.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Unifying the Validation of Ambient Solar Wind Models

Progress in space weather research and awareness needs community-wide strategies and procedures to evaluate our modeling assets. Here we present the activities of the Ambient Solar Wind Validation Team embedded in the COSPAR ISWAT initiative. We aim to bridge the gap between model developers and end-users to provide the community with an assessment of the state-of-the-art in solar wind forecasting. To this end, we develop an open online platform for validating solar wind models by comparing their solutions with in situ spacecraft measurements. The online platform will allow the space weather community to test the quality of state-of-the-art solar wind models with unified metrics providing an unbiased assessment of progress over time. In this study, we propose a metadata architecture and recommend community-wide forecasting goals and validation metrics. We conclude with a status update of the online platform and outline future perspectives.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2022

Characteristics and evolution of sheath and leading edge structures of interplanetary coronal mass ejections in the inner heliosphere based on Helios and Parker Solar Probe observations

Aims: We statistically investigate the plasma and magnetic field characteristics of the upstream regions of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and their evolution as function of distance to the Sun in the inner heliosphere. We use a sample of 40 well-observed ICMEs from Helios 1/2 (0.3-1au) and 5 from Parker Solar Probe (0.32-0.75au). For each event we identify four main density structures, namely shock, sheath, leading edge (LE), and magnetic ejecta (ME) itself. Methods: We derive separately for each structure averaged plasma and magnetic field parameter values as well as duration and place the results into comparison with the upstream solar wind (SW) to investigate the interrelation between the different density structures. Results: The sheath structure presumably consists of compressed plasma due to the turbulent SW material following the shock. The sheath lies ahead of a region of compressed ambient SW, the LE, which is typically found directly in front of the magnetic driver and seems to match the bright leading edge commonly observed in remote sensing observations of CMEs. The sheath becomes denser than the ambient SW at about 0.06au, which we interpret as the average starting distance for actual sheath formation. Between 0.09-0.28au the sheath structure density starts to dominate over the density within the ME. The ME density seems to fall below the ambient SW density over 0.45-1.07au. Besides the well-known expansion of the ME, the sheath size shows a weak positive correlation with distance, while the LE seems not to expand with distance from the Sun. We further find a moderate anti-correlation between sheath density and local SW plasma speed upstream of the ICME shock. An empirical relation is derived connecting the ambient SW speed with sheath and LE density that can be used for modeling of ICME evolution. Constraints to those results are given.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

How the area of solar coronal holes affects the properties of high-speed solar wind streams near Earth -- An analytical model

We derive a simple analytical model for the propagation of HSSs from the Sun to Earth and thereby show how the area of coronal holes and the size of their boundary regions affect the HSS velocity, temperature, and density near Earth. We presume that velocity, temperature, and density profiles form across the HSS cross section close to the Sun and that these spatial profiles translate into corresponding temporal profiles in a given radial direction due to the solar rotation. These temporal distributions drive the stream interface to the preceding slow solar wind plasma and disperse with distance from the Sun. The HSS properties at 1 AU are then given by all HSS plasma parcels launched from the Sun that did not run into the stream interface at Earth distance. We show that the velocity plateau region of HSSs as seen at 1 AU, if apparent, originates from the center region of the HSS close to the Sun, whereas the velocity tail at 1 AU originates from the trailing boundary region. The peak velocity of HSSs at Earth further depends on the longitudinal width of the HSS close to the Sun. The temperature and density of HSS plasma parcels at Earth depend on their radial expansion from the Sun to Earth. The radial expansion is determined by the velocity gradient across the HSS boundary region close to the Sun and gives the velocity-temperature and density-temperature relationships at Earth their specific shape. When considering a large number of HSSs, the presumed correlation between the HSS velocities and temperatures close to the Sun degrades only slightly up to 1 AU, but the correlation between the velocities and densities is strongly disrupted up to 1 AU due to the radial expansion. Finally, we show how the number of particles of the piled-up slow solar wind in the stream interaction region depends on the velocities and densities of the HSS and preceding slow solar wind plasma.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

The Dynamic Time Warping as a Means to Assess Solar Wind Time Series

During the last decades, international attempts have been made to develop realistic space weather prediction tools aiming to forecast the conditions on the Sun and in the interplanetary environment. These efforts have led to the development of appropriate metrics in order to assess the performance of those tools. Metrics are necessary to validate models, compare different models and monitor improvements of a certain model over time. In this work, we introduce the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) as an alternative way to evaluate the performance of models and, in particular, to quantify differences between observed and modeled solar wind time series. We present the advantages and drawbacks of this method as well as applications to WIND observations and EUHFORIA predictions at Earth. We show that DTW can warp sequences in time, aiming to align them with the minimum cost by using dynamic programming. It can be applied in two ways for the evaluation of modeled solar wind time series. The first, calculates the sequence similarity factor (SSF), a number that provides a quantification of how good the forecast is, compared to an ideal and a non-ideal prediction scenarios. The second way quantifies the time and amplitude differences between the points that are best matched between the two sequences. As a result, DTW can serve as a hybrid metric between continuous measurements (e.g., the correlation coefficient), and point-by-point comparisons. It is a promising technique for the assessment of solar wind profiles providing at once the most complete evaluation portrait of a model.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Generic profile of a long-lived corotating interaction region and associated recurrent Forbush decrease

We observe and analyse a long-lived corotating interaction region (CIR), originating from a single coronal hole (CH), recurring in 27 consecutive Carrington rotations 2057-2083 in the time period from June 2007 - May 2009. We studied the in situ measurements of this long-lived CIR as well as the corresponding depression in the cosmic ray (CR) count observed by SOHO/EPHIN throughout different rotations. We performed a statistical analysis, as well as the superposed epoch analysis, using relative values of the key parameters: the total magnetic field strength, B, the magnetic field fluctuations, dBrms, plasma flow speed, v, plasma density, n, plasma temperature, T , and the SOHO/EPHIN F-detector particle count, and CR count. We find that the mirrored CR count-time profile is correlated with that of the flow speed, ranging from moderate to strong correlation, depending on the rotation. In addition, we find that the CR count dip amplitude is correlated to the peak in the magnetic field and flow speed of the CIR. These results are in agreement with previous statistical studies. Finally, using the superposed epoch analysis, we obtain a generic CIR example, which reflects the in situ properties of a typical CIR well. Our results are better explained based on the combined convection-diffusion approach of the CIR-related GCR modulation. Furthermore, qualitatively, our results do not differ from those based on different CHs samples. This indicates that the change of the physical properties of the recurring CIR from one rotation to another is not qualitatively different from the change of the physical properties of CIRs originating from different CHs. Finally, the obtained generic CIR example, analyzed on the basis of superposed epoch analysis, can be used as a reference for testing future models.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

How to Estimate the Far-Side Open Flux using STEREO Coronal Holes

Global magnetic field models use as input synoptic data, which usually show "aging effects" as the longitudinal 360° information is not obtained simultaneously. Especially during times of increased solar activity, the evolution of the magnetic field may yield large uncertainties. A significant source of uncertainty is the Sun's magnetic field on the side of the Sun that is not visible to the observer. Various methods have been used to complete the picture: synoptic charts, flux-transport models, and far side helioseismology. In this study, we present a new method to estimate the far-side open flux within coronal holes using STEREO EUV observations. First, we correlate the structure of the photospheric magnetic field as observed with the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (HMI/SDO) with features in the transition region. From the 304A intensity distribution, which we found to be specific to coronal holes, we derive an empirical estimate for the open flux. Then we use a large sample of 313 SDO coronal hole observations to verify this relation. Finally, we perform a cross-instrument calibration from SDO to STEREO data to enable the estimation of the open flux at solar longitudes not visible from Earth. We find that the properties of strong, unipolar magnetic elements in the photosphere, which determine the coronal hole's open flux, can be approximated by open fields in the transition region. We find that structures below a threshold of 78% (STEREO) or 94% (SDO) of the solar disk median intensity as seen in 304A filtergrams are reasonably well correlated with the mean magnetic flux density of coronal holes (cc = 0.59). Using the area covered by these structures (A_of) and the area of the coronal hole (A_ch), we model the open magnetic flux of a coronal hole as |Phi_ch| = 0.25 A_ch exp(0.032 A_of) with an estimated uncertainty of 40 to 60%.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Probabilistic Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) Evaluation for Heliospheric Propagation of CMEs

The Drag-based Model (DBM) is a 2D analytical model for heliospheric propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in ecliptic plane predicting the CME arrival time and speed at Earth or any other given target in the solar system. It is based on the equation of motion and depends on initial CME parameters, background solar wind speed, $w$ and the drag parameter $γ$. A very short computational time of DBM ($<$ 0.01s) allowed us to develop the Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) that takes into account the variability of model input parameters by making an ensemble of n different input parameters to calculate the distribution and significance of the DBM results. Thus the DBEM is able to calculate the most likely CME arrival times and speeds, quantify the prediction uncertainties and determine the confidence intervals. A new DBEMv3 version is described in detail and evaluated for the first time determing the DBEMv3 performance and errors by using various CME-ICME lists as well as it is compared with previous DBEM versions. The analysis to find the optimal drag parameter $γ$ and ambient solar wind speed $w$ showed that somewhat higher values ($γ\approx 0.3 \times 10^{-7}$ km$^{-1}$, $w \approx$ 425 km\,s$^{-1}$) for both of these DBEM input parameters should be used for the evaluation compared to the previously employed ones. Based on the evaluation performed for 146 CME-ICME pairs, the DBEMv3 performance with mean error (ME) of -11.3 h, mean absolute error (MAE) of 17.3 h was obtained. There is a clear bias towards the negative prediction errors where the fast CMEs are predicted to arrive too early, probably due to the model physical limitations and input errors (e.g. CME launch speed).

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Space weather: the solar perspective -- an update to Schwenn (2006)

The Sun, as an active star, is the driver of energetic phenomena that structure interplanetary space and affect planetary atmospheres. The effects of Space Weather on Earth and the solar system is of increasing importance as human spaceflight is preparing for lunar and Mars missions. This review is focusing on the solar perspective of the Space Weather relevant phenomena, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares, solar energetic particles (SEPs), and solar wind stream interaction regions (SIR). With the advent of the STEREO mission (launched in 2006), literally, new perspectives were provided that enabled for the first time to study coronal structures and the evolution of activity phenomena in three dimensions. New imaging capabilities, covering the entire Sun-Earth distance range, allowed to seamlessly connect CMEs and their interplanetary counterparts measured in-situ (so called ICMEs). This vastly increased our knowledge and understanding of the dynamics of interplanetary space due to solar activity and fostered the development of Space Weather forecasting models. Moreover, we are facing challenging times gathering new data from two extraordinary missions, NASA's Parker Solar Probe (launched in 2018) and ESA's Solar Orbiter (launched in 2020), that will in the near future provide more detailed insight into the solar wind evolution and image CMEs from view points never approached before. The current review builds upon the Living Reviews paper by Schwenn from 2006, updating on the Space Weather relevant CME-flare-SEP phenomena from the solar perspective, as observed from multiple viewpoints and their concomitant solar surface signatures.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Drag-based model (DBM) tools for forecast of coronal mass ejection arrival time and speed

Forecasting the arrival time of CMEs and their associated shocks is one of the key aspects of space weather research. One of the commonly used models is, due to its simplicity and calculation speed, the analytical drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of CMEs. DBM relies on the observational fact that slow CMEs accelerate whereas fast CMEs decelerate, and is based on the concept of MHD drag, which acts to adjust the CME speed to the ambient solar wind. Although physically DBM is applicable only to the CME magnetic structure, it is often used as a proxy for the shock arrival. In recent years, the DBM equation has been used in many studies to describe the propagation of CMEs and shocks with different geometries and assumptions. Here we give an overview of the five DBM versions currently available and their respective tools, developed at Hvar Observatory and frequently used by researchers and forecasters. These include: 1) basic 1D DBM, a 1D model describing the propagation of a single point (i.e. the apex of the CME) or concentric arc (where all points propagate identically); 2) advanced 2D self-similar cone DBM, a 2D model which combines basic DBM and cone geometry describing the propagation of the CME leading edge which evolves self-similarly; 3) 2D flattening cone DBM, a 2D model which combines basic DBM and cone geometry describing the propagation of the CME leading edge which does not evolve self-similarly; 4) DBEM, an ensemble version of the 2D flattening cone DBM which uses CME ensembles as an input and 5) DBEMv3, an ensemble version of the 2D flattening cone DBM which creates CME ensembles based on the input uncertainties. All five versions have been tested and published in recent years and are available online or upon request. We provide an overview of these five tools, of their similarities and differences, as well as discuss and demonstrate their application.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Statistical Approach on Differential EmissionMeasure of Coronal Holes using the CATCH Catalog

Coronal holes are large-scale structures in the solar atmosphere that feature a reduced temperature and density in comparison to the surrounding quiet Sun and are usually associated with open magnetic fields. We perform a differential emission measure analysis on the 707 non-polar coronal holes collected in the Collection of Analysis Tools for Coronal Holes (CATCH) catalog to derive and statistically analyze their plasma properties (i.e. temperature, electron density, and emission measure). We use intensity filtergrams of the six coronal EUV filters from the \textit{Atmospheric Imaging Assembly} onboard of the \textit{Solar Dynamics Observatory}, which cover a temperature range from $ \approx 10^{5.5}$ to $10^{7.5}$\,K. Correcting the data for stray and scattered light, we find that all coronal holes have very similar plasma properties with an average temperature of $0.94 \pm 0.18$ MK, a mean electron density of $(2.4 \pm 0.7) \times 10^{8}$\,cm$^{-3}$, and a mean emission measure of $(2.8 \pm 1.6) \times 10^{26}$\,cm$^{-5}$. The temperature distribution within the coronal hole was found to be largely uniform, whereas the electron density shows a $40\,\%$ linear decrease from the boundary towards the inside of the coronal hole. At distances greater than \SI{20}{\arcsecond} ($\approx 15$\,Mm) from the nearest coronal hole boundary, the density also becomes statistically uniform. The coronal hole temperature may show a weak solar cycle dependency, but no statistically significant correlation of plasma properties to solar cycle variations could be determined throughout the observed time period between 2010 and 2019.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Why are ELEvoHI CME arrival predictions different if based on STEREO-A or STEREO-B heliospheric imager observations?

Accurate forecasting of the arrival time and arrival speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a unsolved problem in space weather research. In this study, a comparison of the predicted arrival times and speeds for each CME based, independently, on the inputs from the two STEREO vantage points is carried out. We perform hindcasts using ELlipse Evolution model based on Heliospheric Imager observations (ELEvoHI) ensemble modelling. An estimate of the ambient solar wind conditions is obtained by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge/Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (WSA/HUX) model combination that serves as input to ELEvoHI. We carefully select 12 CMEs between February 2010 and July 2012 that show clear signatures in both STEREO-A and STEREO-B HI time-elongation maps, that propagate close to the ecliptic plane, and that have corresponding in situ signatures at Earth. We find a mean arrival time difference of 6.5 hrs between predictions from the two different viewpoints, which can reach up to 9.5 hrs for individual CMEs, while the mean arrival speed difference is 63 km s$^{-1}$. An ambient solar wind with a large speed variance leads to larger differences in the STEREO-A and STEREO-B CME arrival time predictions ($cc~=~0.92$). Additionally, we compare the predicted arrivals, from both spacecraft, to the actual in situ arrivals at Earth and find a mean absolute error of 7.5 $\pm$ 9.5 hrs for the arrival time and 87 $\pm$ 111 km s$^{-1}$ for the arrival speed. There is no tendency for one spacecraft to provide more accurate arrival predictions than the other.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Properties of stream interaction regions at Earth and Mars during the declining phase of SC 24

We inspect the evolution of SIRs from Earth to Mars (distance range 1-1.5 AU) over the declining phase of solar cycle 24 (2014-2018). So far, studies only analyzed SIRs measured at Earth and Mars at different times. We compare existing catalogs for both heliospheric distances and arrive at a clean dataset for the identical time range. This allows a well-sampled statistical analysis and for the opposition phases of the planets an in-depth analysis of SIRs as they evolve with distance. We use in-situ solar wind data from OMNI and the MAVEN spacecraft as well as remote sensing data from SDO. A superposed epoch analysis is performed for bulk speed, proton density, temperature, magnetic field magnitude and total perpendicular pressure. Additionally, a study of events during the two opposition phases of Earth and Mars in the years 2016 and 2018 is conducted. SIR related coronal holes with their area as well as their latitudinal and longitudinal extent are extracted and correlated to the maximum bulk speed and duration of the corresponding high speed solar wind streams following the stream interaction regions. We find that while the entire solar wind HSS shows no expansion as it evolves from Earth to Mars, the crest of the HSS profile broadens by about 17%, and the magnetic field and total pressure by about 45% around the stream interface. The difference between the maximum and minimum values in the normalized superposed profiles increases slightly or stagnates from 1-1.5 AU for all parameters, except for the temperature. A sharp drop at zero epoch time is observed in the superposed profiles for the magnetic field strength at both heliospheric distances. Maximum solar wind speed has a stronger dependence on the latitudinal extent of the respective coronal hole than on its longitudinal extent. We arrive at an occurrence rate of fast forward shocks three times as high at Mars than at Earth.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2020

Earth-affecting Solar Transients: A Review of Progresses in Solar Cycle 24

This review article summarizes the advancement in the studies of Earth-affecting solar transients in the last decade that encompasses most of solar cycle 24. The Sun Earth is an integrated physical system in which the space environment of the Earth sustains continuous influence from mass, magnetic field and radiation energy output of the Sun in varying time scales from minutes to millennium. This article addresses short time scale events, from minutes to days that directly cause transient disturbances in the Earth space environment and generate intense adverse effects on advanced technological systems of human society. Such transient events largely fall into the following four types: (1) solar flares, (2) coronal mass ejections (CMEs) including their interplanetary counterparts ICMEs, (3) solar energetic particle (SEP) events, and (4) stream interaction regions (SIRs) including corotating interaction regions (CIRs). In the last decade, the unprecedented multi viewpoint observations of the Sun from space, enabled by STEREO Ahead/Behind spacecraft in combination with a suite of observatories along the Sun-Earth lines, have provided much more accurate and global measurements of the size, speed, propagation direction and morphology of CMEs in both 3-D and over a large volume in the heliosphere. Several advanced MHD models have been developed to simulate realistic CME events from the initiation on the Sun until their arrival at 1 AU. Much progress has been made on detailed kinematic and dynamic behaviors of CMEs, including non-radial motion, rotation and deformation of CMEs, CME-CME interaction, and stealth CMEs and problematic ICMEs. The knowledge about SEPs has also been significantly improved.

astro-ph.SR↗