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Marc Peter Deisenroth

Publications and source records attributed to Marc Peter Deisenroth.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Matérn Gaussian Processes on Graphs

Gaussian processes are a versatile framework for learning unknown functions in a manner that permits one to utilize prior information about their properties. Although many different Gaussian process models are readily available when the input space is Euclidean, the choice is much more limited for Gaussian processes whose input space is an undirected graph. In this work, we leverage the stochastic partial differential equation characterization of Matérn Gaussian processes - a widely-used model class in the Euclidean setting - to study their analog for undirected graphs. We show that the resulting Gaussian processes inherit various attractive properties of their Euclidean and Riemannian analogs and provide techniques that allow them to be trained using standard methods, such as inducing points. This enables graph Matérn Gaussian processes to be employed in mini-batch and non-conjugate settings, thereby making them more accessible to practitioners and easier to deploy within larger learning frameworks.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Learning Physical Operators using Neural Operators

Neural operators have emerged as promising surrogate models for solving partial differential equations (PDEs), but struggle to generalise beyond training distributions and are often constrained to a fixed temporal discretisation. This work introduces a physics-informed training framework that addresses these limitations by decomposing PDEs using operator splitting methods, training separate neural operators to learn individual non-linear physical operators while approximating linear operators with fixed finite-difference convolutions. This modular mixture-of-experts architecture enables generalisation to novel physical regimes by explicitly encoding the underlying operator structure. We formulate the modelling task as a neural ordinary differential equation (ODE) where these learned operators constitute the right-hand side, enabling continuous-in-time predictions through standard ODE solvers and implicitly enforcing PDE constraints. Demonstrated on incompressible and compressible Navier--Stokes equations, our approach achieves better convergence and superior performance when generalising to unseen physics. The method remains parameter-efficient, enabling temporal extrapolation beyond training horizons, and provides interpretable components whose behaviour can be verified against known physics.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Uncertainty Quantification of Surrogate Models using Conformal Prediction

Data-driven surrogate models offer quick approximations to complex numerical and experimental systems but typically lack uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability in safety-critical applications. While Bayesian methods provide uncertainty estimates, they offer no statistical guarantees and struggle with high-dimensional spatio-temporal problems due to computational costs. We present a conformal prediction (CP) framework that provides statistically guaranteed marginal coverage for surrogate models in a model-agnostic manner with near-zero computational cost. Our approach handles high-dimensional spatio-temporal outputs by performing cell-wise calibration while preserving the tensorial structure of predictions. Through extensive empirical evaluation across diverse applications including fluid dynamics, magnetohydrodynamics, weather forecasting, and fusion diagnostics, we demonstrate that CP achieves empirical coverage with valid error bars regardless of model architecture, training regime, or output dimensionality. We evaluate three nonconformity scores (conformalised quantile regression, absolute error residual, and standard deviation) for both deterministic and probabilistic models, showing that guaranteed coverage holds even for out-of-distribution predictions where models are deployed on physics regimes different from training data. Calibration requires only seconds to minutes on standard hardware. The framework enables rigorous validation of pre-trained surrogate models for downstream applications without retraining. While CP provides marginal rather than conditional coverage and assumes exchangeability between calibration and test data, our method circumvents the curse of dimensionality inherent in traditional uncertainty quantification approaches, offering a practical tool for trustworthy deployment of machine learning in physical sciences.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2025

Parameter Efficient Fine-tuning via Explained Variance Adaptation

Foundation models (FMs) are pre-trained on large-scale datasets and then fine-tuned for a specific downstream task. The most common fine-tuning method is to update pretrained weights via low-rank adaptation (LoRA). Existing initialization strategies for LoRA often rely on singular value decompositions (SVD) of gradients or weight matrices. However, they do not provably maximize the expected gradient signal, which is critical for fast adaptation. To this end, we introduce Explained Variance Adaptation (EVA), an initialization scheme that uses the directions capturing the most activation variance, provably maximizing the expected gradient signal and accelerating fine-tuning. EVA performs incremental SVD on minibatches of activation vectors and selects the right-singular vectors for initialization once they converged. Further, by selecting the directions that capture the most activation-variance for a given rank budget, EVA accommodates adaptive ranks that reduce the number of trainable parameters. We apply EVA to a variety of fine-tuning tasks as language generation and understanding, image classification, and reinforcement learning. EVA exhibits faster convergence than competitors and achieves the highest average score across a multitude of tasks per domain while reducing the number of trainable parameters through rank redistribution. In summary, EVA establishes a new Pareto frontier compared to existing LoRA initialization schemes in both accuracy and efficiency.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Infinite Neural Operators: Gaussian processes on functions

A variety of infinitely wide neural architectures (e.g., dense NNs, CNNs, and transformers) induce Gaussian process (GP) priors over their outputs. These relationships provide both an accurate characterization of the prior predictive distribution and enable the use of GP machinery to improve the uncertainty quantification of deep neural networks. In this work, we extend this connection to neural operators (NOs), a class of models designed to learn mappings between function spaces. Specifically, we show conditions for when arbitrary-depth NOs with Gaussian-distributed convolution kernels converge to function-valued GPs. Based on this result, we show how to compute the covariance functions of these NO-GPs for two NO parametrizations, including the popular Fourier neural operator (FNO). With this, we compute the posteriors of these GPs in regression scenarios, including PDE solution operators. This work is an important step towards uncovering the inductive biases of current FNO architectures and opens a path to incorporate novel inductive biases for use in kernel-based operator learning methods.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2025

Calibrated Physics-Informed Uncertainty Quantification

Simulating complex physical systems is crucial for understanding and predicting phenomena across diverse fields, such as fluid dynamics and heat transfer, as well as plasma physics and structural mechanics. Traditional approaches rely on solving partial differential equations (PDEs) using numerical methods, which are computationally expensive and often prohibitively slow for real-time applications or large-scale simulations. Neural PDEs have emerged as efficient alternatives to these costly numerical solvers, offering significant computational speed-ups. However, their lack of robust uncertainty quantification (UQ) limits deployment in critical applications. We introduce a model-agnostic, physics-informed conformal prediction (CP) framework that provides guaranteed uncertainty estimates without requiring labelled data. By utilising a physics-based approach, we can quantify and calibrate the model's inconsistencies with the physics rather than the uncertainty arising from the data. Our approach utilises convolutional layers as finite-difference stencils and leverages physics residual errors as nonconformity scores, enabling data-free UQ with marginal and joint coverage guarantees across prediction domains for a range of complex PDEs. We further validate the efficacy of our method on neural PDE models for plasma modelling and shot design in fusion reactors.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Learning Dynamic Tasks on a Large-scale Soft Robot in a Handful of Trials

Soft robots offer more flexibility, compliance, and adaptability than traditional rigid robots. They are also typically lighter and cheaper to manufacture. However, their use in real-world applications is limited due to modeling challenges and difficulties in integrating effective proprioceptive sensors. Large-scale soft robots ($\approx$ two meters in length) have greater modeling complexity due to increased inertia and related effects of gravity. Common efforts to ease these modeling difficulties such as assuming simple kinematic and dynamics models also limit the general capabilities of soft robots and are not applicable in tasks requiring fast, dynamic motion like throwing and hammering. To overcome these challenges, we propose a data-efficient Bayesian optimization-based approach for learning control policies for dynamic tasks on a large-scale soft robot. Our approach optimizes the task objective function directly from commanded pressures, without requiring approximate kinematics or dynamics as an intermediate step. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through both simulated and real-world experiments.

cs.RO↗
arXiv2024

Probabilistic Weather Forecasting with Hierarchical Graph Neural Networks

In recent years, machine learning has established itself as a powerful tool for high-resolution weather forecasting. While most current machine learning models focus on deterministic forecasts, accurately capturing the uncertainty in the chaotic weather system calls for probabilistic modeling. We propose a probabilistic weather forecasting model called Graph-EFM, combining a flexible latent-variable formulation with the successful graph-based forecasting framework. The use of a hierarchical graph construction allows for efficient sampling of spatially coherent forecasts. Requiring only a single forward pass per time step, Graph-EFM allows for fast generation of arbitrarily large ensembles. We experiment with the model on both global and limited area forecasting. Ensemble forecasts from Graph-EFM achieve equivalent or lower errors than comparable deterministic models, with the added benefit of accurately capturing forecast uncertainty.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Scalable Data Assimilation with Message Passing

Data assimilation is a core component of numerical weather prediction systems. The large quantity of data processed during assimilation requires the computation to be distributed across increasingly many compute nodes, yet existing approaches suffer from synchronisation overhead in this setting. In this paper, we exploit the formulation of data assimilation as a Bayesian inference problem and apply a message-passing algorithm to solve the spatial inference problem. Since message passing is inherently based on local computations, this approach lends itself to parallel and distributed computation. In combination with a GPU-accelerated implementation, we can scale the algorithm to very large grid sizes while retaining good accuracy and compute and memory requirements.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Reparameterized Multi-Resolution Convolutions for Long Sequence Modelling

Global convolutions have shown increasing promise as powerful general-purpose sequence models. However, training long convolutions is challenging, and kernel parameterizations must be able to learn long-range dependencies without overfitting. This work introduces reparameterized multi-resolution convolutions ($\texttt{MRConv}$), a novel approach to parameterizing global convolutional kernels for long-sequence modelling. By leveraging multi-resolution convolutions, incorporating structural reparameterization and introducing learnable kernel decay, $\texttt{MRConv}$ learns expressive long-range kernels that perform well across various data modalities. Our experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on the Long Range Arena, Sequential CIFAR, and Speech Commands tasks among convolution models and linear-time transformers. Moreover, we report improved performance on ImageNet classification by replacing 2D convolutions with 1D $\texttt{MRConv}$ layers.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Gaussian Processes on Cellular Complexes

In recent years, there has been considerable interest in developing machine learning models on graphs to account for topological inductive biases. In particular, recent attention has been given to Gaussian processes on such structures since they can additionally account for uncertainty. However, graphs are limited to modelling relations between two vertices. In this paper, we go beyond this dyadic setting and consider polyadic relations that include interactions between vertices, edges and one of their generalisations, known as cells. Specifically, we propose Gaussian processes on cellular complexes, a generalisation of graphs that captures interactions between these higher-order cells. One of our key contributions is the derivation of two novel kernels, one that generalises the graph Matérn kernel and one that additionally mixes information of different cell types.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Plasma Surrogate Modelling using Fourier Neural Operators

Predicting plasma evolution within a Tokamak reactor is crucial to realizing the goal of sustainable fusion. Capabilities in forecasting the spatio-temporal evolution of plasma rapidly and accurately allow us to quickly iterate over design and control strategies on current Tokamak devices and future reactors. Modelling plasma evolution using numerical solvers is often expensive, consuming many hours on supercomputers, and hence, we need alternative inexpensive surrogate models. We demonstrate accurate predictions of plasma evolution both in simulation and experimental domains using deep learning-based surrogate modelling tools, viz., Fourier Neural Operators (FNO). We show that FNO has a speedup of six orders of magnitude over traditional solvers in predicting the plasma dynamics simulated from magnetohydrodynamic models, while maintaining a high accuracy (MSE in the normalised domain $\approx$ $10^{-5}$). Our modified version of the FNO is capable of solving multi-variable Partial Differential Equations (PDE), and can capture the dependence among the different variables in a single model. FNOs can also predict plasma evolution on real-world experimental data observed by the cameras positioned within the MAST Tokamak, i.e., cameras looking across the central solenoid and the divertor in the Tokamak. We show that FNOs are able to accurately forecast the evolution of plasma and have the potential to be deployed for real-time monitoring. We also illustrate their capability in forecasting the plasma shape, the locations of interactions of the plasma with the central solenoid and the divertor for the full (available) duration of the plasma shot within MAST. The FNO offers a viable alternative for surrogate modelling as it is quick to train and infer, and requires fewer data points, while being able to do zero-shot super-resolution and getting high-fidelity solutions.

physics.plasm-ph↗
arXiv2024

Iterated INLA for State and Parameter Estimation in Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

Data assimilation (DA) methods use priors arising from differential equations to robustly interpolate and extrapolate data. Popular techniques such as ensemble methods that handle high-dimensional, nonlinear PDE priors focus mostly on state estimation, however can have difficulty learning the parameters accurately. On the other hand, machine learning based approaches can naturally learn the state and parameters, but their applicability can be limited, or produce uncertainties that are hard to interpret. Inspired by the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) method in spatial statistics, we propose an alternative approach to DA based on iteratively linearising the dynamical model. This produces a Gaussian Markov random field at each iteration, enabling one to use INLA to infer the state and parameters. Our approach can be used for arbitrary nonlinear systems, while retaining interpretability, and is furthermore demonstrated to outperform existing methods on the DA task. By providing a more nuanced approach to handling nonlinear PDE priors, our methodology offers improved accuracy and robustness in predictions, especially where data sparsity is prevalent.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2024

A Unifying Variational Framework for Gaussian Process Motion Planning

To control how a robot moves, motion planning algorithms must compute paths in high-dimensional state spaces while accounting for physical constraints related to motors and joints, generating smooth and stable motions, avoiding obstacles, and preventing collisions. A motion planning algorithm must therefore balance competing demands, and should ideally incorporate uncertainty to handle noise, model errors, and facilitate deployment in complex environments. To address these issues, we introduce a framework for robot motion planning based on variational Gaussian processes, which unifies and generalizes various probabilistic-inference-based motion planning algorithms, and connects them with optimization-based planners. Our framework provides a principled and flexible way to incorporate equality-based, inequality-based, and soft motion-planning constraints during end-to-end training, is straightforward to implement, and provides both interval-based and Monte-Carlo-based uncertainty estimates. We conduct experiments using different environments and robots, comparing against baseline approaches based on the feasibility of the planned paths, and obstacle avoidance quality. Results show that our proposed approach yields a good balance between success rates and path quality.

cs.RO↗
arXiv2023

Thin and Deep Gaussian Processes

Gaussian processes (GPs) can provide a principled approach to uncertainty quantification with easy-to-interpret kernel hyperparameters, such as the lengthscale, which controls the correlation distance of function values. However, selecting an appropriate kernel can be challenging. Deep GPs avoid manual kernel engineering by successively parameterizing kernels with GP layers, allowing them to learn low-dimensional embeddings of the inputs that explain the output data. Following the architecture of deep neural networks, the most common deep GPs warp the input space layer-by-layer but lose all the interpretability of shallow GPs. An alternative construction is to successively parameterize the lengthscale of a kernel, improving the interpretability but ultimately giving away the notion of learning lower-dimensional embeddings. Unfortunately, both methods are susceptible to particular pathologies which may hinder fitting and limit their interpretability. This work proposes a novel synthesis of both previous approaches: Thin and Deep GP (TDGP). Each TDGP layer defines locally linear transformations of the original input data maintaining the concept of latent embeddings while also retaining the interpretation of lengthscales of a kernel. Moreover, unlike the prior solutions, TDGP induces non-pathological manifolds that admit learning lower-dimensional representations. We show with theoretical and experimental results that i) TDGP is, unlike previous models, tailored to specifically discover lower-dimensional manifolds in the input data, ii) TDGP behaves well when increasing the number of layers, and iii) TDGP performs well in standard benchmark datasets.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2023

Faster Training of Neural ODEs Using Gauß-Legendre Quadrature

Neural ODEs demonstrate strong performance in generative and time-series modelling. However, training them via the adjoint method is slow compared to discrete models due to the requirement of numerically solving ODEs. To speed neural ODEs up, a common approach is to regularise the solutions. However, this approach may affect the expressivity of the model; when the trajectory itself matters, this is particularly important. In this paper, we propose an alternative way to speed up the training of neural ODEs. The key idea is to speed up the adjoint method by using Gauß-Legendre quadrature to solve integrals faster than ODE-based methods while remaining memory efficient. We also extend the idea to training SDEs using the Wong-Zakai theorem, by training a corresponding ODE and transferring the parameters. Our approach leads to faster training of neural ODEs, especially for large models. It also presents a new way to train SDE-based models.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Neural Field Movement Primitives for Joint Modelling of Scenes and Motions

This paper presents a novel Learning from Demonstration (LfD) method that uses neural fields to learn new skills efficiently and accurately. It achieves this by utilizing a shared embedding to learn both scene and motion representations in a generative way. Our method smoothly maps each expert demonstration to a scene-motion embedding and learns to model them without requiring hand-crafted task parameters or large datasets. It achieves data efficiency by enforcing scene and motion generation to be smooth with respect to changes in the embedding space. At inference time, our method can retrieve scene-motion embeddings using test time optimization, and generate precise motion trajectories for novel scenes. The proposed method is versatile and can employ images, 3D shapes, and any other scene representations that can be modeled using neural fields. Additionally, it can generate both end-effector positions and joint angle-based trajectories. Our method is evaluated on tasks that require accurate motion trajectory generation, where the underlying task parametrization is based on object positions and geometric scene changes. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the baseline approaches and generalizes to novel scenes. Furthermore, in real-world experiments, we show that our method can successfully model multi-valued trajectories, it is robust to the distractor objects introduced at inference time, and it can generate 6D motions.

cs.RO↗
arXiv2023

Grasp Transfer based on Self-Aligning Implicit Representations of Local Surfaces

Objects we interact with and manipulate often share similar parts, such as handles, that allow us to transfer our actions flexibly due to their shared functionality. This work addresses the problem of transferring a grasp experience or a demonstration to a novel object that shares shape similarities with objects the robot has previously encountered. Existing approaches for solving this problem are typically restricted to a specific object category or a parametric shape. Our approach, however, can transfer grasps associated with implicit models of local surfaces shared across object categories. Specifically, we employ a single expert grasp demonstration to learn an implicit local surface representation model from a small dataset of object meshes. At inference time, this model is used to transfer grasps to novel objects by identifying the most geometrically similar surfaces to the one on which the expert grasp is demonstrated. Our model is trained entirely in simulation and is evaluated on simulated and real-world objects that are not seen during training. Evaluations indicate that grasp transfer to unseen object categories using this approach can be successfully performed both in simulation and real-world experiments. The simulation results also show that the proposed approach leads to better spatial precision and grasp accuracy compared to a baseline approach.

cs.RO↗