arXiv subjects

Marco Micheli

Publications and source records attributed to Marco Micheli.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Pre-discovery Activity of New Interstellar Comet 2I/Borisov Beyond 5 AU

Comet 2I/Borisov, the first unambiguous interstellar comet ever found, was discovered in August 2019 at $\sim3$ au from the Sun on its inbound leg. No pre-discovery detection beyond 3 au has yet been reported, mostly due to the comet's proximity to the Sun as seen from the Earth. Here we present a search for pre-discovery detections of comet Borisov using images taken by the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS), Pan-STARRS and Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), with a further comprehensive follow-up campaign being presented in \citet{Bolin2019}. We identified comet Borisov in ZTF images taken in May 2019 and use these data to update its orbit. This allowed us to identify the comet in images acquired as far back as December 2018, when it was 7.8 au from the Sun. The comet was not detected in November 2018 when it was 8.6 au from the Sun, possibly implying an onset of activity around this time. This suggests that the activity of the comet is either driven by a more volatile species other than H$_2$O, such as CO or CO$_2$, or by exothermic crystallization of amorphous ice. We derive the radius of the nucleus to be $<7$ km using the non-detection in November 2018, and estimate an area of $\sim0.5$---$10 \mathrm{km^2}$ has been active between December 2018 and September 2019, though this number is model-dependent and is highly uncertain. The behavior of comet Borisov during its inbound leg is observationally consistent with dynamically new comets observed in our solar system, suggesting some similarities between the two.

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arXiv2019

Detection of CN gas in Interstellar Object 2I/Borisov

The detection of Interstellar Objects passing through the Solar System offers the promise of constraining the physical and chemical processes involved in planetary formation in other extrasolar systems. While the effect of outgassing by 1I/2017 U1 ('Oumuamua) was dynamically observed, no direct detection of the ejected material was made. The discovery of the active interstellar comet 2I/Borisov means spectroscopic investigations of the sublimated ices is possible for this object. We report the first detection of gas emitted by an interstellar comet via the near-UV emission of CN from 2I/Borisov at a heliocentric distance of $r$ = 2.7 au on 2019 September 20. The production rate was found to be Q(CN) = $(3.7\pm0.4)\times10^{24}$ s$^{-1}$, using a simple Haser model with an outflow velocity of 0.5 km s$^{-1}$. No other emission was detected, with an upper limit to the production rate of C$_2$ of $4\times10^{24}$ s$^{-1}$. The spectral reflectance slope of the dust coma over $3900$ Å $< λ< 6000$ Å\ is steeper than at longer wavelengths, as found for other comets. Broad band $R_c$ photometry on 2019 September 19 gave a dust production rate of $Afρ=143\pm10$ cm. Modelling of the observed gas and dust production rates constrains the nuclear radius to $0.7-3.3$ km assuming reasonable nuclear properties. Overall, we find the gas, dust and nuclear properties for the first active Interstellar Object are similar to normal Solar System comets.

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arXiv2019

Yarkovsky effect detection and updated impact hazard assessment for Near-Earth Asteroid (410777) 2009 FD

Near-Earth asteroid (410777) 2009 FD is a potentially hazardous asteroid with potential impacts on Earth at the end of the 22nd century. The astrometry collected during the 2019 apparition provides information on the trajectory of (410777) by constraining the Yarkovsky effect, which is the main source of uncertainty for future predictions, and informing the impact hazard assessment. We included the Yarkovsky effect in the force model and estimated its magnitude from the fit to the (410777) optical and radar astrometric data. We performed the (410777) hazard assessment over 200 years by using two independent approaches: the NEODyS group adopted a generalisation of the Line Of Variations method in a 7-dimensional space, whereas the JPL team resorted to the Multilayer Clustered Sampling technique. We obtain a 4-sigma detection of the Yarkovsky effect acting on (410777), which corresponds to a semimajor axis drift of (3.6 +/- 0.9) x 10^{-3} au/Myr. As for the hazard results of both teams, the main impact possibility in 2185 is ruled out and the only remaining one is in 2190, but with a probability smaller than 10^{-8}.

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arXiv2019

Disintegration of Active Asteroid P/2016 G1 (PANSTARRS)

We report on the catastrophic disintegration of P/2016 G1 (PANSTARRS), an active asteroid, in April 2016. Deep images over three months show that object is constituted by a central concentration of fragments surrounded by an elongated coma, and presents previously unreported sharp arc-like and a narrow linear features. The morphology and evolution of these characteristics independently point toward a brief event on 2016 March 6. The arc and the linear feature can be reproduced by large particles on a ring, moving at ~2.5 m/s. The expansion of the ring defines a cone with a ~40deg half-opening. We propose that G1 was hit by a small object which caused its (partial or total) disruption, and that the ring corresponds to large fragments ejected during the final stages of the crater formation.}

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arXiv2019

Maximizing LSST Solar System Science: Approaches, Software Tools, and Infrastructure Needs

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) is expected to increase known small solar system object populations by an order of magnitude or more over the next decade, enabling a broad array of transformative solar system science investigations to be performed. In this white paper, we discuss software tools and infrastructure that we anticipate will be needed to conduct these investigations and outline possible approaches for implementing them. Feedback from the community or contributions to future updates of this work are welcome. Our aim is for this white paper to encourage further consideration of the software development needs of the LSST solar system science community, and also to be a call to action for working to meet those needs in advance of the expected start of the survey in late 2022.

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arXiv2019

The Sporadic Activity of (6478) Gault: A YORP-driven event?

On 2019 January 5 a streamer associated with the 4--10 km main-belt asteroid (6478)~Gault was detected by the ATLAS sky survey, a rare discovery of activity around a main-belt asteroid. Archival data from ATLAS and Pan-STARRS1 show the trail in early December 2018, but not between 2010 and January 2018. The feature has significantly changed over one month, perfectly matching predictions of pure dust dynamical evolution and changes in observing geometry for a short release of dust around 2018 October 28. Follow-up observations with HST show a second narrow trail corresponding to a brief release of dust on 2018 December 30. Both releases occurred with negligible velocity. We find the dust grains to be fairly large, with power-law size distributions in the $10^{-5} - 10^{-3}$~m range and power-law indices of $\sim -1.5$. Three runs of ground-based data find a signature of $\sim 2\,\rm h$ rotation, close to the rotational limit, suggesting that the activity is the result of landslides or reconfigurations after YORP spin-up.

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arXiv2019

A systematic ranging technique for follow-ups of NEOs detected with the Flyeye telescope

When new objects are detected in the sky, an orbit determination needs to be performed immediately to find out their origin, to determine the probability of an Earth impact and possibly also to estimate the impact region on Earth. ESA's Flyeye telescope is expected to revolutionize the effort of predicting potential asteroid or deep space debris impact hazards due to the expected increase of near-Earth object discoveries. As the observed orbit arc for such an object is very short, classical Gaussian orbit determination cannot be used. We adopt the systematic ranging technique to overcome the lack of information and predict a region of the sky where the body can most likely be found. We also provide a detection probability for follow-up observations and investigate potential follow-up telescopes for the Flyeye telescope.

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arXiv2019

C/2010 U3 (Boattini): A Bizarre Comet Active at Record Heliocentric Distance

We present a photometric and dynamical study of comet C/2010 U3 (Boattini), which was seen active in prediscovery data as early as 2005 November at a new inbound record heliocentric distance $r_{\rm H} = 25.8$ au. Two outburst events around 2009 and 2017 were observed. The coma and tail of the comet consist of dust grains of $\sim$10 $μ$m in radius, ejected protractedly at speeds $\lesssim$50 m s$^{-1}$ near the subsolar point, and are subjected to the Lorentz force, solar gravitation and radiation pressure force altogether. The prolonged activity indicates that sublimation of supervolatiles (e.g., CO, CO$_2$) is at play, causing a net mass-loss rate $\gtrsim$1 kg s$^{-1}$. To sustain the mass loss, the nucleus radius has to be $\gtrsim$0.1 km. The color of the cometary dust, similar to other long-period comets, is redder than the solar colors, but we also observed potential color variations when the comet was at $10 < r_{\rm H} < 15$ au, concurrent with the onset of crystallisation of amorphous water ice, if at all. Using publicly available and our refined astrometric measurements, we estimated the precise trajectory of the comet and propagated it backward to its previous perihelion. We found that the comet has visited the planetary region $1.96 \pm 0.04$ Myr ago, with barycentric perihelion distance $q = 8.364 \pm 0.004$ au. Thus, C/2010 U3 (Boattini) is almost certainly a dynamically old comet from the Oort cloud, and the observed activity cannot be caused by retained heat from the previous apparition.

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arXiv2018

The 2016 Reactivations of Main-Belt Comets 238P/Read and 288P/(300163) 2006 VW139

We report observations of the reactivations of main-belt comets 238P/Read and 288P/(300163) 2006 VW139, that also track the evolution of each object's activity over several months in 2016 and 2017. We additionally identify and analyze archival SDSS data showing 288P to be active in 2000, meaning that both 238P and 288P have now each been confirmed to be active near perihelion on three separate occasions. From data obtained of 288P from 2012-2015 when it appeared inactive, we find best-fit R-band H,G phase function parameters of H_R=16.80+/-0.12 mag and G_R=0.18+/-0.11, corresponding to effective component radii of r_c=0.80+/-0.04 km, assuming a binary system with equally-sized components. Fitting linear functions to ejected dust masses inferred for 238P and 288P soon after their observed reactivations in 2016, we find an initial average net dust production rate of 0.7+/-0.3 kg/s and a best-fit start date of 2016 March 11 (when the object was at a true anomaly of -63 deg) for 238P, and an initial average net dust production rate of 5.6+/-0.7 kg/s and a best-fit start date of 2016 August 5 (when the object was at a true anomaly of -27 deg) for 288P. Applying similar analyses to archival data, we find similar start points for previous active episodes for both objects, suggesting that minimal mantle growth or ice recession occurred between the active episodes in question. Some changes in dust production rates between active episodes are detected, however. More detailed dust modeling is suggested to further clarify the process of activity evolution in main-belt comets.

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arXiv2018

The Reactivation and Nucleus Characterization of Main-Belt Comet 358P/PANSTARRS (P/2012 T1)

We present observations of main-belt comet 358P/PANSTARRS (P/2012 T1) obtained using the Gemini South telescope from 2017 July to 2017 December, as the object approached perihelion for the first time since its discovery. We find best-fit IAU phase function parameters of H_R=19.5+/-0.2 mag and G_R=-0.22+/-0.13 for the nucleus, corresponding to an effective radius of r_N=0.32+/-0.03 km (assuming an albedo of p_R=0.05). The object appears significantly brighter (by >1 mag) than expected starting in 2017 November, while a faint dust tail oriented approximately in the antisolar direction is also observed on 2017 December 18. We conclude that 358P has become active again for the first time since its previously observed active period in 2012-2013. These observations make 358P the seventh main-belt comet candidate confirmed to exhibit recurrent activity near perihelion with intervening inactivity away from perihelion, strongly indicating that its activity is sublimation-driven. Fitting a linear function to the ejected dust masses inferred for 358P in 2017 when it is apparently active, we find an average net dust production rate of 2.0+/-0.6 kg/s (assuming a mean effective particle radius of 1 mm) and an estimated activity start date of 2017 November 8+/-4 when the object was at a true anomaly of 316+/-1 deg and a heliocentric distance of R=2.54 AU. Insufficient data is currently available to ascertain whether activity strength has changed between the object's 2012-2013 and 2017 active periods. Further observations are therefore highly encouraged during the object's upcoming observing window (2018 August through 2019 May).

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arXiv2018

The Excited Spin State of 1I/2017 U1 `Oumuamua

We show that `Oumuamua's excited spin could be in a high energy LAM state, which implies that its shape could be far from the highly elongated shape found in previous studies. CLEAN and ANOVA algorithms are used to analyze `Oumuamua's lightcurve using 818 observations over 29.3~days. Two fundamental periodicities are found at frequencies (2.77$\pm$0.11) and (6.42$\pm$0.18)~cycles/day, corresponding to (8.67$\pm$0.34)~h and (3.74$\pm$0.11)~h, respectively. The phased data show that the lightcurve does not repeat in a simple manner, but approximately shows a double minimum at 2.77~cycles/day and a single minimum at 6.42~cycles/day. This is characteristic of an excited spin state. `Oumuamua could be spinning in either the long (LAM) or short (SAM) axis mode. For both, the long axis precesses around the total angular momentum vector with an average period of (8.67$\pm$0.34)~h. For the three LAMs we have found, the possible rotation periods around the long axis are 6.58, 13.15, or 54.48~h, with 54.48~h being the most likely. `Oumuamua may also be nutating with respective periods of half of these values. We have also found two possible SAM states where `Oumuamua oscillates around the long axis with possible periods at 13.15 and 54.48~h, the latter as the most likely. In this case any nutation will occur with the same periods. Determination of the spin state, the amplitude of the nutation, the direction of the TAMV, and the average total spin period may be possible with a direct model fit to the lightcurve. We find that `Oumuamua is "cigar-shaped"', if close to its lowest rotational energy, and an extremely oblate spheroid if close to its highest energy state for its total angular momentum.

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arXiv2017

The observing campaign on the deep-space debris WT1190F as a test case for short-warning NEO impacts

On 2015 November 13, the small artificial object designated WT1190F entered the Earth atmosphere above the Indian Ocean offshore Sri Lanka after being discovered as a possible new asteroid only a few weeks earlier. At ESA's SSA-NEO Coordination Centre we took advantage of this opportunity to organize a ground-based observational campaign, using WT1190F as a test case for a possible similar future event involving a natural asteroidal body.

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arXiv2017

CO-Driven Activity in Comet C/2017 K2 (PANSTARRS)

Comet C/2017 K2 (PANSTARRS) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) Survey on 2017 May 21 at a distance 16.09 au from the Sun, the second most distant discovery of an active comet. Pre-discovery images in the PS1 archive back to 2014 and additional deep CFHT images between 2013 May 10-13 showed the comet to be active at 23.75 au. We derive an upper limit to the nucleus radius of $R_N$=80 km, assuming a 4\% albedo. The spectral reflectivity of the comet surface is similar to "fresh" regions seen on comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko using the $Rosetta$ OSIRIS camera. Pre-discovery photometry combined with new data obtained with Megacam on the CFHT show that the activity is consistent with CO-ice sublimation and inconsistent with CO$_2$-ice sublimation. The ice sublimation models were run out to perihelion in 2022 at 1.8 au to predict the CO production rates, assuming that the outgassing area does not change. Assuming a canonical 4\% active surface area for water-ice sublimation, we present production rate ratios, $Q_{\rm CO}$/$Q_{\rm H2O}$, for a range of nucleus sizes. Comparing these results with other CO-rich comets we derive a lower limit to the nucleus radius of $\sim$14 km. We present predictions for $Q_{\rm CO}$ at a range of distances that will be useful for planning observations with JWST and large ground-based facilities.

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arXiv2017

The Unusual Apparition of Comet 252P/2000 G1 (LINEAR) and Comparison with Comet P/2016 BA14 (PanSTARRS)

We imaged Comet 252P/2000 G1 (LINEAR) (hereafter 252P) with the Hubble Space Telescope and both 252P and P/2016 BA$_{14}$ (PanSTARRS) (hereafter BA$_{14}$) with the Discovery Channel Telescope in March and April 2016, surrounding its close encounter to Earth. The r'-band $Afρ$ of 252P in a 0.2"-radius aperture were $16.8\pm0.3$ and $57\pm1$ cm on March 14 and April 4, respectively, and its gas production rates were: $Q$(OH) = $(5.8\pm0.1)\times10^{27}$ s$^{-1}$, and $Q$(CN) = $(1.25\pm0.01)\times10^{25}$ s$^{-1}$ on April 17. The r'-band upper limit $Afρ$ of BA1$_{14}$ was $0.19\pm0.01$ cm in a 19.2"-radius aperture, and $Q$(CN) = $(1.4\pm0.1)10^{22}$ s$^{-1}$ on April 17, 2017. 252P shows a bright and narrow jet of a few hundred kilometers long in the sunward direction, changing its projected position angle in the sky with a periodicity consistent with 7.24 hours. However, its photometric lightcurve is consistent with a periodicity of 5.41 hours. We suggest that the nucleus of 252P is likely in a non-principal axis rotation. The nucleus radius of 252P is estimated to be about $0.3\pm0.03$ km, indicating an active fraction of 40% to >100% in its 2016 apparition. Evidence implies a possible cloud of slow-moving grains surrounding the nucleus. The activity level of 252P in the 2016 apparition increased by two orders of magnitude from its previous apparitions, making this apparition unusual. On the other hand, the activity level of BA14 appears to be at least three orders of magnitude lower than that of 252P, despite its ten times or larger surface area.

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arXiv2017

The splitting of double-component active asteroid P/2016 J1 (PANSTARRS)

We present deep imaging observations, orbital dynamics, and dust tail model analyses of the double-component asteroid P/2016 J1 (J1-A and J1-B). The observations were acquired at the Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC) and the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT) from mid March to late July, 2016. A statistical analysis of backward-in-time integrations of the orbits of a large sample of clone objects of P/2016 J1-A and J1-B shows that the minimum separation between them occurred most likely $\sim$2300 days prior to the current perihelion passage, i.e., during the previous orbit near perihelion. This closest approach was probably linked to a fragmentation event of their parent body. Monte Carlo dust tail models show that those two components became active simultaneously $\sim$250 days before the current perihelion, with comparable maximum loss rates of $\sim$0.7 kg s$^{-1}$ and $\sim$0.5 kg s$^{-1}$, and total ejected masses of 8$\times$10$^{6}$ kg and 6$\times$10$^{6}$ kg for fragments J1-A and J1-B, respectively. In consequence, the fragmentation event and the present dust activity are unrelated. The simultaneous activation times of the two components and the fact that the activity lasted 6 to 9 months or longer, strongly indicate ice sublimation as the most likely mechanism involved in the dust emission process.

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arXiv2016

Fragmentation Kinematics in Comet 332P/Ikeya-Murakami

We present initial time-resolved observations of the split comet 332P/Ikeya-Murakami taken using the Hubble Space Telescope. Our images reveal a dust-bathed cluster of fragments receding from their parent nucleus at projected speeds in the range 0.06 to 3.5 m s$^{-1}$ from which we estimate ejection times from October to December 2015. The number of fragments with effective radii $\gtrsim$20 m follows a differential power law with index $γ$ = -3.6$\pm$0.6, while smaller fragments are less abundant than expected from an extrapolation of this power-law. We argue that, in addition to losses due to observational selection, torques from anisotropic outgassing are capable of destroying the small fragments by driving them quickly to rotational instability. Specifically, the spin-up times of fragments $\lesssim$20 m in radius are shorter than the time elapsed since ejection from the parent nucleus. The effective radius of the parent nucleus is $r_e \le$ 275 m (geometric albedo 0.04 assumed). This is about seven times smaller than previous estimates and results in a nucleus mass at least 300 times smaller than previously thought. The mass in solid pieces, $2\times10^9$ kg, is about 4% of the mass of the parent nucleus. As a result of its small size, the parent nucleus also has a short spin-up time. Brightness variations in time-resolved nucleus photometry are consistent with rotational instability playing a role in the release of fragments.

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arXiv2016

The catastrophic fragmentation of Comet 332P (Ikeya-Murakami)

We describe 2016 January to April observations of the fragments of 332P/Ikeya-Murakami, a comet earlier observed in a 2010 October outburst (Ishiguro et al 2014). We present photometry of the fragments, and perform simulations to infer the time of breakup. We argue that the eastern-most rapidly brightening fragment ($F4$) best corresponds to the original nucleus, rather than the initial bright fragment $F1$. We compute radial and tangential non-gravitational parameters, $A_1 = (1.5 \pm 0.4) \times 10^{-8}$ AU day$^{-2}$ and $(7.2 \pm 1.9) \times 10^{-9}$ AU day$^{-2}$; both are consistent with zero at the $4σ$ level. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the fragments were emitted on the outbound journey well after the 2010 outburst, with bright fragment $F1$ splitting in mid--2013 and the fainter fragments within months of the 2016 January recovery. Western fragment $F7$ is the oldest, dating from 2011. We suggest that the delayed onset of the splitting is consistent with a self-propagating crystallization of water ice.

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arXiv2015

Evidence for 2009 WN25 being the parent body of the November i-Draconids (NID)

In this work we propose the Amor-type asteroid 2009 WN25 as the likely progenitor of the November i-Draconids (NID, IAU#392), a recently detected weak annual meteoroid stream. We first describe our recovery and follow-up effort to obtain timely ground based astrometry with large aperture telescopes, and ensure that 2009 WN25 would not become lost. We then discuss the possible parent-stream association, using its updated orbit to model the ejection of dust particles from the surface of the parent body and match the observed properties of the stream.

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