arXiv subjects

Marco Micheli

Publications and source records attributed to Marco Micheli.

84 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2015

Surveys, Astrometric Follow-up & Population Statistics

Asteroid surveys are the backbone of asteroid science, and with this in mind we begin with a broad review of the impact of asteroid surveys on our field. We then provide a brief history of asteroid discoveries so as to place contemporary and future surveys in perspective. Surveys in the United States have discovered the vast majority of the asteroids and this dominance has been consolidated since the publication of Asteroids III. Our descriptions of the asteroid surveys that have been operational since that time are focussed upon those that have contributed the vast majority of asteroid observations and discoveries. We also provide some insight into upcoming next-generation surveys that are sure to alter our understanding of the small bodies in the inner solar system and provide evidence to untangle their complicated dynamical and physical histories. The Minor Planet Center, the nerve center of the asteroid discovery effort, has improved its operations significantly in the past decade so that it can manage the increasing discovery rate, and ensure that it is well-placed to handle the data rates expected in the next decade. We also consider the difficulties associated with astrometric follow-up of newly identified objects. It seems clear that both of these efforts must operate in new modes in order to keep pace with expected discovery rates of next-generation ground- and space-based surveys.

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arXiv2015

Sublimation-Driven Activity in Main-Belt Comet 313P/Gibbs

We present an observational and dynamical study of newly discovered main-belt comet 313P/Gibbs. We find that the object is clearly active both in observations obtained in 2014 and in precovery observations obtained in 2003 by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, strongly suggesting that its activity is sublimation-driven. This conclusion is supported by a photometric analysis showing an increase in the total brightness of the comet over the 2014 observing period, and dust modeling results showing that the dust emission persists over at least three months during both active periods, where we find start dates for emission no later than 2003 July 24+/-10 for the 2003 active period and 2014 July 28+/-10 for the 2014 active period. From serendipitous observations by the Subaru Telescope in 2004 when the object was apparently inactive, we estimate that the nucleus has an absolute R-band magnitude of H_R=17.1+/-0.3, corresponding to an effective nucleus radius of r_e~1.00+/-0.15 km. The object's faintness at that time means we cannot rule out the presence of activity, and so this computed radius should be considered an upper limit. We find that 313P's orbit is intrinsically chaotic, having a Lyapunov time of T_l=12000 yr and being located near two 3-body mean-motion resonances with Jupiter and Saturn, 11J-1S-5A and 10J+12S-7A, yet appears stable over >50 Myr in an apparent example of stable chaos. We furthermore find that 313P is the second main-belt comet, after P/2012 T1 (PANSTARRS), to belong to the ~155 Myr old Lixiaohua asteroid family.

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arXiv2014

The Main-Belt Comets: The Pan-STARRS1 Perspective

We analyze 760475 observations of 333026 main-belt objects obtained by the Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) survey telescope between 2012 May 20 and 2013 November 9, a period during which PS1 discovered two main-belt comets, P/2012 T1 (PANSTARRS) and P/2013 R3 (Catalina-PANSTARRS). PS1 comet detection procedures currently consist of the comparison of the point spread functions (PSFs) of moving objects to those of reference stars, and the flagging of objects that show anomalously large radial PSF widths. Based on the number of missed discovery opportunities among comets discovered by other observers, we estimate an upper limit comet discovery efficiency rate of ~70% for PS1. Additional analyses that could improve comet discovery yields in future surveys include linear PSF analysis, modeling of trailed stellar PSFs for comparison to trailed moving object PSFs, searches for azimuthally localized activity, comparison of point-source-optimized photometry to extended-source-optimized photometry, searches for photometric excesses in objects with known absolute magnitudes, and crowd-sourcing. Analysis of PS1 survey statistics indicates an expected fraction of 59 MBCs per 10^6 outer main-belt asteroids, and a 95% confidence upper limit of 96 MBCs per 10^6 outer main-belt asteroids. We note that more sensitive future surveys could detect many more MBCs than estimated here. We find an excess of high eccentricities (0.1 < e < 0.3) among all known MBCs relative to the background asteroid population. Theoretical calculations show that, given these eccentricities, the sublimation rate for a typical MBC is orders of magnitude larger at perihelion than at aphelion, providing a plausible physical explanation for the observed behavior of MBCs peaking in observed activity strength near perihelion.

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arXiv2014

Observational Constraints on the Catastrophic Disruption Rate of Small Main Belt Asteroids

We have calculated 90% confidence limits on the steady-state rate of catastrophic disruptions of main belt asteroids in terms of the absolute magnitude at which one catastrophic disruption occurs per year (HCL) as a function of the post-disruption increase in brightness (delta m) and subsequent brightness decay rate (tau). The confidence limits were calculated using the brightest unknown main belt asteroid (V = 18.5) detected with the Pan-STARRS1 (Pan-STARRS1) telescope. We measured the Pan-STARRS1's catastrophic disruption detection efficiency over a 453-day interval using the Pan-STARRS moving object processing system (MOPS) and a simple model for the catastrophic disruption event's photometric behavior in a small aperture centered on the catastrophic disruption event. Our simplistic catastrophic disruption model suggests that delta m = 20 mag and 0.01 mag d-1 < tau < 0.1 mag d-1 which would imply that H0 = 28 -- strongly inconsistent with H0,B2005 = 23.26 +/- 0.02 predicted by Bottke et al. (2005) using purely collisional models. We postulate that the solution to the discrepancy is that > 99% of main belt catastrophic disruptions in the size range to which this study was sensitive (100 m) are not impact-generated, but are instead due to fainter rotational breakups, of which the recent discoveries of disrupted asteroids P/2013 P5 and P/2013 R3 are probable examples. We estimate that current and upcoming asteroid surveys may discover up to 10 catastrophic disruptions/year brighter than V = 18.5.

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arXiv2014

Radiation pressure detection and density estimate for 2011 MD

We present our astrometric observations of the small near-Earth object 2011~MD ($H \sim 28.0$), obtained after its very close fly-by to Earth in June 2011. Our set of observations extends the observational arc to $73$ days, and together with the published astrometry obtained around the Earth fly-by allows a direct detection of the effect of radiation pressure on the object, with a confidence of $5σ$. The detection can be used to put constraints on the density of the object, pointing to either an unexpectedly low value of $ρ= (640 \pm 330) \mbox{ kg} / \mbox{m} ^3$ ($68\%$ confidence interval) if we assume a typical probability distribution for the unknown albedo, or to an unusually high reflectivity of its surface. This result may have important implications both in terms of impact hazard from small objects and in light of a possible retrieval of this target.

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arXiv2014

Discovery of a young asteroid cluster associated with P/2012~F5 (Gibbs)

We present the results of our search for a dynamical family around the active asteroid P/2012F5 (Gibbs). By applying the hierarchical clustering method, we discover an extremely compact 9-body cluster associated with P/2012F5. The statistical significance of this newly discovered Gibbs cluster is estimated to be >99.9%, strongly suggesting that its members share a common origin. The cluster is located in a dynamically cold region of the outer main-belt at a proper semi-major axis of about 3.005 AU, and all members are found to be dynamically stable over very long time-scales. Backward numerical orbital integrations show that the age of the cluster is only 1.5 $\pm$ 0.1 Myr. Taxonomic classifications are unavailable for most of the cluster members, but SDSS spectrophotometry available for two cluster members indicate that both appear to be $Q$-type objects. We also estimate a lower limit of the size of the parent body to be about 10 km, and find that the impact event which produced the Gibbs cluster is intermediate between a cratering and a catastrophic collision. In addition, we search for new main-belt comets in the region of the Gibbs cluster by observing seven asteroids either belonging to the cluster, or being very close in the space of orbital proper elements. However, we do not detect any convincing evidence of the presence of a tail or coma in any our targets. Finally, we obtain optical images of P/2012F5, and find absolute R-band and V-band magnitudes of $H_R$ = 17.0 $\pm$ 0.1 mag and $H_V$ = 17.4 $\pm$ 0.1 mag, respectively, corresponding to an upper limit on the diameter of the P/2012F5 nucleus of about 2 km.

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arXiv2013

Main-Belt Comet P/2012 T1 (PANSTARRS)

We present initial results from observations and numerical analyses aimed at characterizing main-belt comet P/2012 T1 (PANSTARRS). Optical monitoring observations were made between October 2012 and February 2013 using the University of Hawaii 2.2 m telescope, the Keck I telescope, the Baade and Clay Magellan telescopes, Faulkes Telescope South, the Perkins Telescope at Lowell Observatory, and the Southern Astrophysical Research (SOAR) telescope. The object's intrinsic brightness approximately doubles from the time of its discovery in early October until mid-November and then decreases by ~60% between late December and early February, similar to photometric behavior exhibited by several other main-belt comets and unlike that exhibited by disrupted asteroid (596) Scheila. We also used Keck to conduct spectroscopic searches for CN emission as well as absorption at 0.7 microns that could indicate the presence of hydrated minerals, finding an upper limit CN production rate of QCN<1.5x10^23 mol/s, from which we infer a water production rate of QH2O<5x10^25 mol/s, and no evidence of the presence of hydrated minerals. Numerical simulations indicate that P/2012 T1 is largely dynamically stable for >100 Myr and is unlikely to be a recently implanted interloper from the outer solar system, while a search for potential asteroid family associations reveal that it is dynamically linked to the ~155 Myr-old Lixiaohua asteroid family.

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arXiv2013

The Pan-STARRS Moving Object Processing System

We describe the Pan-STARRS Moving Object Processing System (MOPS), a modern software package that produces automatic asteroid discoveries and identifications from catalogs of transient detections from next-generation astronomical survey telescopes. MOPS achieves > 99.5% efficiency in producing orbits from a synthetic but realistic population of asteroids whose measurements were simulated for a Pan-STARRS4-class telescope. Additionally, using a non-physical grid population, we demonstrate that MOPS can detect populations of currently unknown objects such as interstellar asteroids. MOPS has been adapted successfully to the prototype Pan-STARRS1 telescope despite differences in expected false detection rates, fill-factor loss and relatively sparse observing cadence compared to a hypothetical Pan-STARRS4 telescope and survey. MOPS remains >99.5% efficient at detecting objects on a single night but drops to 80% efficiency at producing orbits for objects detected on multiple nights. This loss is primarily due to configurable MOPS processing limits that are not yet tuned for the Pan-STARRS1 mission. The core MOPS software package is the product of more than 15 person-years of software development and incorporates countless additional years of effort in third-party software to perform lower-level functions such as spatial searching or orbit determination. We describe the high-level design of MOPS and essential subcomponents, the suitability of MOPS for other survey programs, and suggest a road map for future MOPS development.

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arXiv2012

Observational and Dynamical Characterization of Main-Belt Comet P/2010 R2 (La Sagra)

We present observations of comet-like main-belt object P/2010 R2 (La Sagra) obtained by Pan-STARRS 1 and the Faulkes Telescope-North on Haleakala in Hawaii, the University of Hawaii 2.2 m, Gemini-North, and Keck I telescopes on Mauna Kea, the Danish 1.54 m telescope at La Silla, and the Isaac Newton Telescope on La Palma. An antisolar dust tail is observed from August 2010 through February 2011, while a dust trail aligned with the object's orbit plane is also observed from December 2010 through August 2011. Assuming typical phase darkening behavior, P/La Sagra is seen to increase in brightness by >1 mag between August 2010 and December 2010, suggesting that dust production is ongoing over this period. These results strongly suggest that the observed activity is cometary in nature (i.e., driven by the sublimation of volatile material), and that P/La Sagra is therefore the most recent main-belt comet to be discovered. We find an approximate absolute magnitude for the nucleus of H_R=17.9+/-0.2 mag, corresponding to a nucleus radius of ~0.7 km, assuming an albedo of p=0.05. Using optical spectroscopy, we find no evidence of sublimation products (i.e., gas emission), finding an upper limit CN production rate of Q_CN<6x10^23 mol/s, from which we infer an H2O production rate of Q_H2O<10^26 mol/s. Numerical simulations indicate that P/La Sagra is dynamically stable for >100 Myr, suggesting that it is likely native to its current location and that its composition is likely representative of other objects in the same region of the main belt, though the relatively close proximity of the 13:6 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter and the (3,-2,-1) three-body mean-motion resonance with Jupiter and Saturn mean that dynamical instability on larger timescales cannot be ruled out.

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arXiv2012

Discovery of Main-Belt Comet P/2006 VW139 by Pan-STARRS1

Main belt asteroid (300163) 2006 VW139 (later designated P/2006 VW139) was discovered to exhibit comet-like activity by the Pan-STARRS1 survey telescope using automated point-spread-function analyses performed by PS1's Moving Object Processing System. Deep follow-up observations show both a short (\sim 10") antisolar dust tail and a longer (\sim 60") dust trail aligned with the object's orbit plane, similar to the morphology observed for another main-belt comet, P/2010 R2 (La Sagra), and other well-established comets, implying the action of a long-lived, sublimation-driven emission event. Photometry showing the brightness of the near-nucleus coma remaining constant over \sim 30 days provides further evidence for this object's cometary nature, suggesting it is in fact a main-belt comet, and not a disrupted asteroid. A spectroscopic search for CN emission was unsuccessful, though we find an upper limit CN production rate of Q_CN < 1.3x10^24 mol/s, from which we infer a water production rate of Q_H2O < 10^26 mol/s. We also find an approximately linear optical spectral slope of 7.2%/1000A, similar to other cometary dust comae. Numerical simulations indicate that P/2006 VW139 is dynamically stable for > 100 Myr, while a search for a potential asteroid family around the object reveals a cluster of 24 asteroids within a cutoff distance of 68 m/s. At 70 m/s, this cluster merges with the Themis family, suggesting that it could be similar to the Beagle family to which another main-belt comet, 133P/Elst-Pizarro, belongs.

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arXiv2011

Detection of radiation pressure acting on 2009 BD

We report the direct detection of radiation pressure on the asteroid 2009 BD, one of the smallest multi-opposition near-Earth objects currently known, with H ~ 28.4. Under the purely gravitational model of NEODyS the object is currently considered a possible future impactor, with impact solutions starting in 2071. The detection of a radiation-related acceleration allows us to estimate an Area to Mass Ratio (AMR) for the object, that can be converted (under some assumptions) into a range of possible values for its average density. Our result AMR = (2.97 \pm 0.33) x 10^(-4) m^2 kg^(-1) is compatible with the object being of natural origin, and it is narrow enough to exclude a man-made nature. The possible origin of this object, its future observability, and the importance of radiation pressure in the impact monitoring process, are also discussed.

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arXiv2008

Updated analysis of the dynamical relation between asteroid 2003 EH1 and comets C/1490 Y1 and C/1385 U1

The asteroid 2003 EH1, proposed as the parent body of the Quadrantid meteor shower, is thought to be the remnant of a past cometary object, tentatively identified with the historical comets C/1490 Y1 and C/1385 U1. In the present work we use recovery astrometry to extend the observed arc of 2003 EH1 from 10 months to about 5 years, enough to exclude the proposed direct relationship of the asteroid with both of the comets.

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