arXiv subjects

Marcus Hutter

Publications and source records attributed to Marcus Hutter.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Asymptotically Unambitious Artificial General Intelligence

General intelligence, the ability to solve arbitrary solvable problems, is supposed by many to be artificially constructible. Narrow intelligence, the ability to solve a given particularly difficult problem, has seen impressive recent development. Notable examples include self-driving cars, Go engines, image classifiers, and translators. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) presents dangers that narrow intelligence does not: if something smarter than us across every domain were indifferent to our concerns, it would be an existential threat to humanity, just as we threaten many species despite no ill will. Even the theory of how to maintain the alignment of an AGI's goals with our own has proven highly elusive. We present the first algorithm we are aware of for asymptotically unambitious AGI, where "unambitiousness" includes not seeking arbitrary power. Thus, we identify an exception to the Instrumental Convergence Thesis, which is roughly that by default, an AGI would seek power, including over us.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

Pessimism About Unknown Unknowns Inspires Conservatism

If we could define the set of all bad outcomes, we could hard-code an agent which avoids them; however, in sufficiently complex environments, this is infeasible. We do not know of any general-purpose approaches in the literature to avoiding novel failure modes. Motivated by this, we define an idealized Bayesian reinforcement learner which follows a policy that maximizes the worst-case expected reward over a set of world-models. We call this agent pessimistic, since it optimizes assuming the worst case. A scalar parameter tunes the agent's pessimism by changing the size of the set of world-models taken into account. Our first main contribution is: given an assumption about the agent's model class, a sufficiently pessimistic agent does not cause "unprecedented events" with probability $1-δ$, whether or not designers know how to precisely specify those precedents they are concerned with. Since pessimism discourages exploration, at each timestep, the agent may defer to a mentor, who may be a human or some known-safe policy we would like to improve. Our other main contribution is that the agent's policy's value approaches at least that of the mentor, while the probability of deferring to the mentor goes to 0. In high-stakes environments, we might like advanced artificial agents to pursue goals cautiously, which is a non-trivial problem even if the agent were allowed arbitrary computing power; we present a formal solution.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

Gated Linear Networks

This paper presents a new family of backpropagation-free neural architectures, Gated Linear Networks (GLNs). What distinguishes GLNs from contemporary neural networks is the distributed and local nature of their credit assignment mechanism; each neuron directly predicts the target, forgoing the ability to learn feature representations in favor of rapid online learning. Individual neurons can model nonlinear functions via the use of data-dependent gating in conjunction with online convex optimization. We show that this architecture gives rise to universal learning capabilities in the limit, with effective model capacity increasing as a function of network size in a manner comparable with deep ReLU networks. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the GLN learning mechanism possesses extraordinary resilience to catastrophic forgetting, performing comparably to a MLP with dropout and Elastic Weight Consolidation on standard benchmarks. These desirable theoretical and empirical properties position GLNs as a complementary technique to contemporary offline deep learning methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

A Gentle Introduction to Quantum Computing Algorithms with Applications to Universal Prediction

In this technical report we give an elementary introduction to Quantum Computing for non-physicists. In this introduction we describe in detail some of the foundational Quantum Algorithms including: the Deutsch-Jozsa Algorithm, Shor's Algorithm, Grocer Search, and Quantum Counting Algorithm and briefly the Harrow-Lloyd Algorithm. Additionally we give an introduction to Solomonoff Induction, a theoretically optimal method for prediction. We then attempt to use Quantum computing to find better algorithms for the approximation of Solomonoff Induction. This is done by using techniques from other Quantum computing algorithms to achieve a speedup in computing the speed prior, which is an approximation of Solomonoff's prior, a key part of Solomonoff Induction. The major limiting factors are that the probabilities being computed are often so small that without a sufficient (often large) amount of trials, the error may be larger than the result. If a substantial speedup in the computation of an approximation of Solomonoff Induction can be achieved through quantum computing, then this can be applied to the field of intelligent agents as a key part of an approximation of the agent AIXI.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2019

Fairness without Regret

A popular approach of achieving fairness in optimization problems is by constraining the solution space to "fair" solutions, which unfortunately typically reduces solution quality. In practice, the ultimate goal is often an aggregate of sub-goals without a unique or best way of combining them or which is otherwise only partially known. I turn this problem into a feature and suggest to use a parametrized objective and vary the parameters within reasonable ranges to get a "set" of optimal solutions, which can then be optimized using secondary criteria such as fairness without compromising the primary objective, i.e. without regret (societal cost).

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Conditions on Features for Temporal Difference-Like Methods to Converge

The convergence of many reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms with linear function approximation has been investigated extensively but most proofs assume that these methods converge to a unique solution. In this paper, we provide a complete characterization of non-uniqueness issues for a large class of reinforcement learning algorithms, simultaneously unifying many counter-examples to convergence in a theoretical framework. We achieve this by proving a new condition on features that can determine whether the convergence assumptions are valid or non-uniqueness holds. We consider a general class of RL methods, which we call natural algorithms, whose solutions are characterized as the fixed point of a projected Bellman equation (when it exists); notably, bootstrapped temporal difference-based methods such as $TD(λ)$ and $GTD(λ)$ are natural algorithms. Our main result proves that natural algorithms converge to the correct solution if and only if all the value functions in the approximation space satisfy a certain shape. This implies that natural algorithms are, in general, inherently prone to converge to the wrong solution for most feature choices even if the value function can be represented exactly. Given our results, we show that state aggregation based features are a safe choice for natural algorithms and we also provide a condition for finding convergent algorithms under other feature constructions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

A Strongly Asymptotically Optimal Agent in General Environments

Reinforcement Learning agents are expected to eventually perform well. Typically, this takes the form of a guarantee about the asymptotic behavior of an algorithm given some assumptions about the environment. We present an algorithm for a policy whose value approaches the optimal value with probability 1 in all computable probabilistic environments, provided the agent has a bounded horizon. This is known as strong asymptotic optimality, and it was previously unknown whether it was possible for a policy to be strongly asymptotically optimal in the class of all computable probabilistic environments. Our agent, Inquisitive Reinforcement Learner (Inq), is more likely to explore the more it expects an exploratory action to reduce its uncertainty about which environment it is in, hence the term inquisitive. Exploring inquisitively is a strategy that can be applied generally; for more manageable environment classes, inquisitiveness is tractable. We conducted experiments in "grid-worlds" to compare the Inquisitive Reinforcement Learner to other weakly asymptotically optimal agents.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Performance Guarantees for Homomorphisms Beyond Markov Decision Processes

Most real-world problems have huge state and/or action spaces. Therefore, a naive application of existing tabular solution methods is not tractable on such problems. Nonetheless, these solution methods are quite useful if an agent has access to a relatively small state-action space homomorphism of the true environment and near-optimal performance is guaranteed by the map. A plethora of research is focused on the case when the homomorphism is a Markovian representation of the underlying process. However, we show that near-optimal performance is sometimes guaranteed even if the homomorphism is non-Markovian. Moreover, we can aggregate significantly more states by lifting the Markovian requirement without compromising on performance. In this work, we expand Extreme State Aggregation (ESA) framework to joint state-action aggregations. We also lift the policy uniformity condition for aggregation in ESA that allows even coarser modeling of the true environment.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

AGI Safety Literature Review

The development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) promises to be a major event. Along with its many potential benefits, it also raises serious safety concerns (Bostrom, 2014). The intention of this paper is to provide an easily accessible and up-to-date collection of references for the emerging field of AGI safety. A significant number of safety problems for AGI have been identified. We list these, and survey recent research on solving them. We also cover works on how best to think of AGI from the limited knowledge we have today, predictions for when AGI will first be created, and what will happen after its creation. Finally, we review the current public policy on AGI.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2018

A Topological Approach to Meta-heuristics: Analytical Results on the BFS vs. DFS Algorithm Selection Problem

Search is a central problem in artificial intelligence, and breadth-first search (BFS) and depth-first search (DFS) are the two most fundamental ways to search. In this paper we derive estimates for average BFS and DFS runtime. The average runtime estimates can be used to allocate resources or judge the hardness of a problem. They can also be used for selecting the best graph representation, and for selecting the faster algorithm out of BFS and DFS. They may also form the basis for an analysis of more advanced search methods. The paper treats both tree search and graph search. For tree search, we employ a probabilistic model of goal distribution; for graph search, the analysis depends on an additional statistic of path redundancy and average branching factor. As an application, we use the results to predict BFS and DFS runtime on two concrete grammar problems and on the N-puzzle. Experimental verification shows that our analytical approximations come close to empirical reality.

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arXiv2017

Reinforcement Learning with a Corrupted Reward Channel

No real-world reward function is perfect. Sensory errors and software bugs may result in RL agents observing higher (or lower) rewards than they should. For example, a reinforcement learning agent may prefer states where a sensory error gives it the maximum reward, but where the true reward is actually small. We formalise this problem as a generalised Markov Decision Problem called Corrupt Reward MDP. Traditional RL methods fare poorly in CRMDPs, even under strong simplifying assumptions and when trying to compensate for the possibly corrupt rewards. Two ways around the problem are investigated. First, by giving the agent richer data, such as in inverse reinforcement learning and semi-supervised reinforcement learning, reward corruption stemming from systematic sensory errors may sometimes be completely managed. Second, by using randomisation to blunt the agent's optimisation, reward corruption can be partially managed under some assumptions.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2017

A Game-Theoretic Analysis of the Off-Switch Game

The off-switch game is a game theoretic model of a highly intelligent robot interacting with a human. In the original paper by Hadfield-Menell et al. (2016), the analysis is not fully game-theoretic as the human is modelled as an irrational player, and the robot's best action is only calculated under unrealistic normality and soft-max assumptions. In this paper, we make the analysis fully game theoretic, by modelling the human as a rational player with a random utility function. As a consequence, we are able to easily calculate the robot's best action for arbitrary belief and irrationality assumptions.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2017

Count-Based Exploration in Feature Space for Reinforcement Learning

We introduce a new count-based optimistic exploration algorithm for Reinforcement Learning (RL) that is feasible in environments with high-dimensional state-action spaces. The success of RL algorithms in these domains depends crucially on generalisation from limited training experience. Function approximation techniques enable RL agents to generalise in order to estimate the value of unvisited states, but at present few methods enable generalisation regarding uncertainty. This has prevented the combination of scalable RL algorithms with efficient exploration strategies that drive the agent to reduce its uncertainty. We present a new method for computing a generalised state visit-count, which allows the agent to estimate the uncertainty associated with any state. Our ϕ-pseudocount achieves generalisation by exploiting same feature representation of the state space that is used for value function approximation. States that have less frequently observed features are deemed more uncertain. The ϕ-Exploration-Bonus algorithm rewards the agent for exploring in feature space rather than in the untransformed state space. The method is simpler and less computationally expensive than some previous proposals, and achieves near state-of-the-art results on high-dimensional RL benchmarks.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2017

Universal Reinforcement Learning Algorithms: Survey and Experiments

Many state-of-the-art reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms typically assume that the environment is an ergodic Markov Decision Process (MDP). In contrast, the field of universal reinforcement learning (URL) is concerned with algorithms that make as few assumptions as possible about the environment. The universal Bayesian agent AIXI and a family of related URL algorithms have been developed in this setting. While numerous theoretical optimality results have been proven for these agents, there has been no empirical investigation of their behavior to date. We present a short and accessible survey of these URL algorithms under a unified notation and framework, along with results of some experiments that qualitatively illustrate some properties of the resulting policies, and their relative performance on partially-observable gridworld environments. We also present an open-source reference implementation of the algorithms which we hope will facilitate further understanding of, and experimentation with, these ideas.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2017

Generalised Discount Functions applied to a Monte-Carlo AImu Implementation

In recent years, work has been done to develop the theory of General Reinforcement Learning (GRL). However, there are few examples demonstrating these results in a concrete way. In particular, there are no examples demonstrating the known results regarding gener- alised discounting. We have added to the GRL simulation platform AIXIjs the functionality to assign an agent arbitrary discount functions, and an environment which can be used to determine the effect of discounting on an agent's policy. Using this, we investigate how geometric, hyperbolic and power discounting affect an informed agent in a simple MDP. We experimentally reproduce a number of theoretical results, and discuss some related subtleties. It was found that the agent's behaviour followed what is expected theoretically, assuming appropriate parameters were chosen for the Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) planning algorithm.

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arXiv2016

Free Lunch for Optimisation under the Universal Distribution

Function optimisation is a major challenge in computer science. The No Free Lunch theorems state that if all functions with the same histogram are assumed to be equally probable then no algorithm outperforms any other in expectation. We argue against the uniform assumption and suggest a universal prior exists for which there is a free lunch, but where no particular class of functions is favoured over another. We also prove upper and lower bounds on the size of the free lunch.

math.OC↗

arXiv2016

Thompson Sampling is Asymptotically Optimal in General Environments

We discuss a variant of Thompson sampling for nonparametric reinforcement learning in a countable classes of general stochastic environments. These environments can be non-Markov, non-ergodic, and partially observable. We show that Thompson sampling learns the environment class in the sense that (1) asymptotically its value converges to the optimal value in mean and (2) given a recoverability assumption regret is sublinear.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2016

Death and Suicide in Universal Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a general paradigm for studying intelligent behaviour, with applications ranging from artificial intelligence to psychology and economics. AIXI is a universal solution to the RL problem; it can learn any computable environment. A technical subtlety of AIXI is that it is defined using a mixture over semimeasures that need not sum to 1, rather than over proper probability measures. In this work we argue that the shortfall of a semimeasure can naturally be interpreted as the agent's estimate of the probability of its death. We formally define death for generally intelligent agents like AIXI, and prove a number of related theorems about their behaviour. Notable discoveries include that agent behaviour can change radically under positive linear transformations of the reward signal (from suicidal to dogmatically self-preserving), and that the agent's posterior belief that it will survive increases over time.

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