arXiv subjects

Maria Perez-Ortiz

Publications and source records attributed to Maria Perez-Ortiz.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Routing Is Least Learnable Where It Is Most Valuable: Bounds on Representation Routing for Web Agents

Web agents observe a browser through text, pixels, or both, and the choice is usually fixed once for all tasks. We measure six observation modes across eight site-model combinations (cells) on VisualWebArena and WebArena and ask what choosing per task would buy. The modes are complementary: each solves tasks the others miss, they fail in structurally different ways, and the best choice reverses between task sets. The obvious prize, an oracle that picks a winning mode for every task, looks large but is inflated by run-to-run noise: rerunning the same mode on the same tasks changes 12-14% of outcomes, so a second run of a mode already in hand gains about as much as adding a new one. What survives is a cost bound: sending only the tasks no mode solves to the cheapest mode cuts cost by 9.5-30.6% in 8 of 8 cells at unchanged success. We then test five routing policies (picking the mode, deciding when to spend on the strong mode, a zero-cost rule read off the task text, a confidence cascade, and pooled cost tiers), and none robustly beats simply fixing one well-chosen mode; the one exception is a fragile result in our sparsest cell. The central obstruction is that routing supervision is produced at the agent's success rate: the weaker the agent, the fewer labels a router gets, exactly where routing would be most valuable. This limit belongs to today's agents rather than to routing itself. Label supply and routing opportunity rise together (correlation 0.95 across cells), so a stronger agent can overturn the result, and we report the rerun noise bands and the full measurement protocol.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Verbosity Tradeoffs and the Impact of Scale on the Faithfulness of LLM Self-Explanations

When asked to explain their decisions, LLMs can often give explanations which sound plausible to humans. But are these explanations faithful, i.e. do they convey the factors actually responsible for the decision? In this work, we analyse counterfactual faithfulness across 75 models from 13 families. We analyze the tradeoff between conciseness and comprehensiveness, how correlational faithfulness metrics assess this tradeoff, and the extent to which metrics can be gamed. This analysis motivates two new metrics: the phi-CCT, a simplified variant of the Correlational Counterfactual Test (CCT) which avoids the need for token probabilities while explaining most of the variance of the original test; and F-AUROC, which eliminates sensitivity to imbalanced intervention distributions and captures a model's ability to produce explanations with different levels of detail. Our findings reveal a clear scaling trend: larger and more capable models are consistently more faithful on all metrics we consider. Our code is available at https://github.com/google-deepmind/corr_faith.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Position: AI Must Become Planet-Centered, Not Just Human-Centered

This position paper argues that contemporary AI paradigms are insufficient for supporting complex global goals and introduces Planet-Centered AI (PCAI) as a design philosophy and research agenda that reorients AI toward planetary-scale socio-ecological systems and their long-term trajectories. A planet-centered approach is grounded in systems thinking, treating Earth as an interconnected whole of which humans are part. We diagnose recurring limitations across AI frameworks, many of which remain human-centered, and show why these become especially consequential under current planetary conditions characterized by systemic risk, non-stationarity, and deep uncertainty. We then articulate how PCAI reshapes the AI lifecycle, from problem formulation and model design to evaluation and deployment, by emphasizing alignment with global agendas, developing system-aware AI foundations, trajectory-oriented evaluation, and monitorability. Finally, we advance a falsifiable claim: AI systems optimized without explicit consideration of systemic consequences are more likely to exacerbate systemic instability than to mitigate it.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

Beyond Explainable AI (XAI): An Overdue Paradigm Shift and Post-XAI Research Directions

This study provides a cross-disciplinary examination of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) approaches-focusing on deep neural networks (DNNs) and large language models (LLMs)-and identifies empirical and conceptual limitations in current XAI. We discuss critical symptoms that stem from deeper root causes (i.e., two paradoxes, two conceptual confusions, and five false assumptions). These fundamental problems within the current XAI research field reveal three insights: experimentally, XAI exhibits significant flaws; conceptually, it is paradoxical; and pragmatically, further attempts to reform the paradoxical XAI might exacerbate its confusion-demanding fundamental shifts and new research directions. To move beyond XAI's limitations, we propose a four-pronged synthesized paradigm shift toward reliable and certified AI development. These four components include: verification-focused Interactive AI (IAI) to establish scientific community protocols for certifying AI system performance rather than attempting post-hoc explanations, AI Epistemology for rigorous scientific foundations, User-Sensible AI to create context-aware systems tailored to specific user communities, and Model-Centered Interpretability for faithful technical analysis-together offering comprehensive post-XAI research directions.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

Sell Me This Stock: Unsafe Recommendation Drift in LLM Agents

People increasingly use LLM agents for multi-turn financial recommendations, where the agent pulls market data through tools and tracks user preferences across turns. When tool outputs are manipulated, the recommendations stop matching the user's stated risk profile, but because standard metrics like NDCG only score general relevance, risky and safe stocks score alike, so the metric says nothing went wrong. We call this gap evaluation blindness. We replay 23-turn financial advisory conversations across eight language models, running each dialogue twice with clean and manipulated tool data. Quality scores stay nearly identical to clean sessions while the agents produce risk-mismatched recommendations in 65-99% of turns, unanimous across all eight models. The mechanism is visible turn-by-turn: 80% of risk-score citations across 1,840 turns reproduce the manipulated value verbatim, not a single turn pushes back, and safe-language framing of high-risk stocks ranges from 14% (Qwen2.5-7B) to 69% (Claude Sonnet 4.6). The property that makes frontier models good agents, faithfully grounding their reasoning in tool outputs, also makes them follow manipulated ones. The damage is not memory-driven: contaminating only the current turn still produces 95% of the violations. The model internally distinguishes the manipulation (sparse autoencoder features separate adversarial from random perturbations), but this does not translate into safer output. Activation-level interventions recover under 6% of the safety gap, prompt-level self-verification fails because the self-check reads the same manipulated data, and a parametric cross-check that flags contamination at 99-100% per turn on a frontier model still leaves aggregate suitability unchanged: the agent identifies the tampering and recommends it anyway.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Tool Calling is Linearly Readable and Steerable in Language Models

When a tool-calling agent picks the wrong tool, the failure is invisible until execution: the email gets sent, the meeting gets missed. As agents take on consequential actions, one bad tool call can do real damage. We currently have no way to look inside the model and catch the mistake before it happens; this paper shows that we can. Inside the model, the choice of tool is carried by a single direction in activation space, one direction per pair of tools. Adding that direction during generation switches which tool the model picks. Across 12 instruction-tuned and 6 base models spanning Gemma 3, Qwen 3, Qwen 2.5, and Llama 3.1 (270M to 27B), this works at 83-100% accuracy on 4B+ instruction-tuned models on a 15-tool synthetic benchmark and at 77-94% on the real-API benchmark $τ$-bench airline. The JSON arguments that follow automatically adapt to the new tool's schema, so flipping the name is enough. The same per-tool directions also flag likely errors before they happen: queries where the model is unsure between two tools fail 21x more often than queries where it is not (Gemma 3 27B). This is not just topic injection: random vectors at the same magnitude give a 0% switch rate, and a probe within a single domain (14 airline tools that share one topic) still reads which tool the model will call at top-1 61-89% across five 4B-14B models. Even base models already carry the right tool internally before they can emit it: reading the chosen tool off the model's internal state (cosine readout) recovers 61-82% accuracy on BFCL while base generation lands at 2-10%, suggesting pretraining forms the representation and instruction tuning later wires it to the output. Our results cover single-turn, fixed-menu settings; on multi-turn agent loops the same intervention is less stable (matched-baseline gain or loss of up to 30 percentage points with no consistent direction).

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Assessing the Robustness of Climate Foundation Models under No-Analog Distribution Shifts

The accelerating pace of climate change introduces profound non-stationarities that challenge the ability of Machine Learning based climate emulators to generalize beyond their training distributions. While these emulators offer computationally efficient alternatives to traditional Earth System Models, their reliability remains a potential bottleneck under "no-analog" future climate states, which we define here as regimes where external forcing drives the system into conditions outside the empirical range of the historical training data. A fundamental challenge in evaluating this reliability is data contamination; because many models are trained on simulations that already encompass future scenarios, true out-of-distribution (OOD) performance is often masked. To address this, we benchmark the OOD robustness of three state-of-the-art architectures: U-Net, ConvLSTM, and the ClimaX foundation model specifically restricted to a historical-only training regime (1850-2014). We evaluate these models using two complementary strategies: (i) temporal extrapolation to the recent climate (2015-2023) and (ii) cross-scenario forcing shifts across divergent emission pathways. Our analysis within this experimental setup reveals an accuracy vs. stability trade-off: while the ClimaX foundation model achieves the lowest absolute error, it exhibits higher relative performance changes under distribution shifts, with precipitation errors increasing by up to 8.44% under extreme forcing scenarios. These findings suggest that when restricted to historical training dynamics, even high-capacity foundation models are sensitive to external forcing trajectories. Our results underscore the necessity of scenario-aware training and rigorous OOD evaluation protocols to ensure the robustness of climate emulators under a changing climate.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

From Prediction to Foresight: The Role of AI in Designing Responsible Futures

In an era marked by rapid technological advancements and complex global challenges, responsible foresight has emerged as an essential framework for policymakers aiming to navigate future uncertainties and shape the future. Responsible foresight entails the ethical anticipation of emerging opportunities and risks, with a focus on fostering proactive, sustainable, and accountable future design. This paper coins the term "responsible computational foresight", examining the role of human-centric artificial intelligence and computational modeling in advancing responsible foresight, establishing a set of foundational principles for this new field and presenting a suite of AI-driven foresight tools currently shaping it. AI, particularly in conjunction with simulations and scenario analysis, enhances policymakers' ability to address uncertainty, evaluate risks, and devise strategies geared toward sustainable, resilient futures. However, responsible foresight extends beyond mere technical forecasting; it demands a nuanced understanding of the interdependencies within social, environmental, economic and political systems, alongside a commitment to ethical, long-term decision-making that supports human intelligence. We argue that AI will play a role as a supportive tool in responsible, human-centered foresight, complementing rather than substituting policymaker judgment to enable the proactive shaping of resilient and ethically sound futures. This paper advocates for the thoughtful integration of AI into foresight practices to empower policymakers and communities as they confront the grand challenges of the 21st century.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

TrueReason: An Exemplar Personalised Learning System Integrating Reasoning with Foundational Models

Personalised education is one of the domains that can greatly benefit from the most recent advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Large Language Models (LLM). However, it is also one of the most challenging applications due to the cognitive complexity of teaching effectively while personalising the learning experience to suit independent learners. We hypothesise that one promising approach to excelling in such demanding use cases is using a \emph{society of minds}. In this chapter, we present TrueReason, an exemplar personalised learning system that integrates a multitude of specialised AI models that can mimic micro skills that are composed together by a LLM to operationalise planning and reasoning. The architecture of the initial prototype is presented while describing two micro skills that have been incorporated in the prototype. The proposed system demonstrates the first step in building sophisticated AI systems that can take up very complex cognitive tasks that are demanded by domains such as education.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Stereotype Detection in LLMs: A Multiclass, Explainable, and Benchmark-Driven Approach

Stereotype detection is a challenging and subjective task, as certain statements, such as "Black people like to play basketball," may not appear overtly toxic but still reinforce racial stereotypes. With the increasing prevalence of large language models (LLMs) in human-facing artificial intelligence (AI) applications, detecting these types of biases is essential. However, LLMs risk perpetuating and amplifying stereotypical outputs derived from their training data. A reliable stereotype detector is crucial for benchmarking bias, monitoring model input and output, filtering training data, and ensuring fairer model behavior in downstream applications. This paper introduces the Multi-Grain Stereotype (MGS) dataset, consisting of 51,867 instances across gender, race, profession, religion, and other stereotypes, curated from multiple existing datasets. We evaluate various machine learning approaches to establish baselines and fine-tune language models of different architectures and sizes, presenting a suite of stereotype multiclass classifiers trained on the MGS dataset. Given the subjectivity of stereotypes, explainability is essential to align model learning with human understanding of stereotypes. We employ explainable AI (XAI) tools, including SHAP, LIME, and BertViz, to assess whether the model's learned patterns align with human intuitions about stereotypes.Additionally, we develop stereotype elicitation prompts and benchmark the presence of stereotypes in text generation tasks using popular LLMs, employing the best-performing stereotype classifiers.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

How Can We Diagnose and Treat Bias in Large Language Models for Clinical Decision-Making?

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have positioned them as powerful tools for clinical decision-making, with rapidly expanding applications in healthcare. However, concerns about bias remain a significant challenge in the clinical implementation of LLMs, particularly regarding gender and ethnicity. This research investigates the evaluation and mitigation of bias in LLMs applied to complex clinical cases, focusing on gender and ethnicity biases. We introduce a novel Counterfactual Patient Variations (CPV) dataset derived from the JAMA Clinical Challenge. Using this dataset, we built a framework for bias evaluation, employing both Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs) and corresponding explanations. We explore prompting with eight LLMs and fine-tuning as debiasing methods. Our findings reveal that addressing social biases in LLMs requires a multidimensional approach as mitigating gender bias can occur while introducing ethnicity biases, and that gender bias in LLM embeddings varies significantly across medical specialities. We demonstrate that evaluating both MCQ response and explanation processes is crucial, as correct responses can be based on biased \textit{reasoning}. We provide a framework for evaluating LLM bias in real-world clinical cases, offer insights into the complex nature of bias in these models, and present strategies for bias mitigation.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

JobFair: A Framework for Benchmarking Gender Hiring Bias in Large Language Models

The use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in hiring has led to legislative actions to protect vulnerable demographic groups. This paper presents a novel framework for benchmarking hierarchical gender hiring bias in Large Language Models (LLMs) for resume scoring, revealing significant issues of reverse gender hiring bias and overdebiasing. Our contributions are fourfold: Firstly, we introduce a new construct grounded in labour economics, legal principles, and critiques of current bias benchmarks: hiring bias can be categorized into two types: Level bias (difference in the average outcomes between demographic counterfactual groups) and Spread bias (difference in the variance of outcomes between demographic counterfactual groups); Level bias can be further subdivided into statistical bias (i.e. changing with non-demographic content) and taste-based bias (i.e. consistent regardless of non-demographic content). Secondly, the framework includes rigorous statistical and computational hiring bias metrics, such as Rank After Scoring (RAS), Rank-based Impact Ratio, Permutation Test, and Fixed Effects Model. Thirdly, we analyze gender hiring biases in ten state-of-the-art LLMs. Seven out of ten LLMs show significant biases against males in at least one industry. An industry-effect regression reveals that the healthcare industry is the most biased against males. Moreover, we found that the bias performance remains invariant with resume content for eight out of ten LLMs. This indicates that the bias performance measured in this paper might apply to other resume datasets with different resume qualities. Fourthly, we provide a user-friendly demo and resume dataset to support the adoption and practical use of the framework, which can be generalized to other social traits and tasks.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

The Probabilities Also Matter: A More Faithful Metric for Faithfulness of Free-Text Explanations in Large Language Models

In order to oversee advanced AI systems, it is important to understand their underlying decision-making process. When prompted, large language models (LLMs) can provide natural language explanations or reasoning traces that sound plausible and receive high ratings from human annotators. However, it is unclear to what extent these explanations are faithful, i.e., truly capture the factors responsible for the model's predictions. In this work, we introduce Correlational Explanatory Faithfulness (CEF), a metric that can be used in faithfulness tests based on input interventions. Previous metrics used in such tests take into account only binary changes in the predictions. Our metric accounts for the total shift in the model's predicted label distribution, more accurately reflecting the explanations' faithfulness. We then introduce the Correlational Counterfactual Test (CCT) by instantiating CEF on the Counterfactual Test (CT) from Atanasova et al. (2023). We evaluate the faithfulness of free-text explanations generated by few-shot-prompted LLMs from the Llama2 family on three NLP tasks. We find that our metric measures aspects of faithfulness which the CT misses.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

The Effect of Model Size on LLM Post-hoc Explainability via LIME

Large language models (LLMs) are becoming bigger to boost performance. However, little is known about how explainability is affected by this trend. This work explores LIME explanations for DeBERTaV3 models of four different sizes on natural language inference (NLI) and zero-shot classification (ZSC) tasks. We evaluate the explanations based on their faithfulness to the models' internal decision processes and their plausibility, i.e. their agreement with human explanations. The key finding is that increased model size does not correlate with plausibility despite improved model performance, suggesting a misalignment between the LIME explanations and the models' internal processes as model size increases. Our results further suggest limitations regarding faithfulness metrics in NLI contexts.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Can Reinforcement Learning support policy makers? A preliminary study with Integrated Assessment Models

Governments around the world aspire to ground decision-making on evidence. Many of the foundations of policy making - e.g. sensing patterns that relate to societal needs, developing evidence-based programs, forecasting potential outcomes of policy changes, and monitoring effectiveness of policy programs - have the potential to benefit from the use of large-scale datasets or simulations together with intelligent algorithms. These could, if designed and deployed in a way that is well grounded on scientific evidence, enable a more comprehensive, faster, and rigorous approach to policy making. Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) is a broad umbrella covering scientific models that attempt to link main features of society and economy with the biosphere into one modelling framework. At present, these systems are probed by policy makers and advisory groups in a hypothesis-driven manner. In this paper, we empirically demonstrate that modern Reinforcement Learning can be used to probe IAMs and explore the space of solutions in a more principled manner. While the implication of our results are modest since the environment is simplistic, we believe that this is a stepping stone towards more ambitious use cases, which could allow for effective exploration of policies and understanding of their consequences and limitations.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Can Population-based Engagement Improve Personalisation? A Novel Dataset and Experiments

This work explores how population-based engagement prediction can address cold-start at scale in large learning resource collections. The paper introduces i) VLE, a novel dataset that consists of content and video based features extracted from publicly available scientific video lectures coupled with implicit and explicit signals related to learner engagement, ii) two standard tasks related to predicting and ranking context-agnostic engagement in video lectures with preliminary baselines and iii) a set of experiments that validate the usefulness of the proposed dataset. Our experimental results indicate that the newly proposed VLE dataset leads to building context-agnostic engagement prediction models that are significantly performant than ones based on previous datasets, mainly attributing to the increase of training examples. VLE dataset's suitability in building models towards Computer Science/ Artificial Intelligence education focused on e-learning/ MOOC use-cases is also evidenced. Further experiments in combining the built model with a personalising algorithm show promising improvements in addressing the cold-start problem encountered in educational recommenders. This is the largest and most diverse publicly available dataset to our knowledge that deals with learner engagement prediction tasks. The dataset, helper tools, descriptive statistics and example code snippets are available publicly.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

Watch Less and Uncover More: Could Navigation Tools Help Users Search and Explore Videos?

Prior research has shown how 'content preview tools' improve speed and accuracy of user relevance judgements across different information retrieval tasks. This paper describes a novel user interface tool, the Content Flow Bar, designed to allow users to quickly identify relevant fragments within informational videos to facilitate browsing, through a cognitively augmented form of navigation. It achieves this by providing semantic "snippets" that enable the user to rapidly scan through video content. The tool provides visually-appealing pop-ups that appear in a time series bar at the bottom of each video, allowing to see in advance and at a glance how topics evolve in the content. We conducted a user study to evaluate how the tool changes the users search experience in video retrieval, as well as how it supports exploration and information seeking. The user questionnaire revealed that participants found the Content Flow Bar helpful and enjoyable for finding relevant information in videos. The interaction logs of the user study, where participants interacted with the tool for completing two informational tasks, showed that it holds promise for enhancing discoverability of content both across and within videos. This discovered potential could leverage a new generation of navigation tools in search and information retrieval.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2021

Progress in Self-Certified Neural Networks

A learning method is self-certified if it uses all available data to simultaneously learn a predictor and certify its quality with a tight statistical certificate that is valid on unseen data. Recent work has shown that neural network models trained by optimising PAC-Bayes bounds lead not only to accurate predictors, but also to tight risk certificates, bearing promise towards achieving self-certified learning. In this context, learning and certification strategies based on PAC-Bayes bounds are especially attractive due to their ability to leverage all data to learn a posterior and simultaneously certify its risk with a tight numerical certificate. In this paper, we assess the progress towards self-certification in probabilistic neural networks learnt by PAC-Bayes inspired objectives. We empirically compare (on 4 classification datasets) classical test set bounds for deterministic predictors and a PAC-Bayes bound for randomised self-certified predictors. We first show that both of these generalisation bounds are not too far from out-of-sample test set errors. We then show that in data starvation regimes, holding out data for the test set bounds adversely affects generalisation performance, while self-certified strategies based on PAC-Bayes bounds do not suffer from this drawback, proving that they might be a suitable choice for the small data regime. We also find that probabilistic neural networks learnt by PAC-Bayes inspired objectives lead to certificates that can be surprisingly competitive with commonly used test set bounds.

cs.LG↗