arXiv subjects

Mark Steyvers

Publications and source records attributed to Mark Steyvers.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

How AI Assistance Affects Human Skill Development: A Study of Learning with Logic Puzzles

While AI assistance can improve human task performance in the short term, it may also undermine the development of skills in the longer term. We examine this tension in a controlled logic-puzzle experiment involving on-demand AI assistance, where participants complete tasks before, during, and after AI is available. By experimentally varying AI request costs, we find that lower-cost assistance induces more frequent AI use. We also find that participants who request AI assistance during the AI-access phase perform worse at the task after assistance is removed, and their subsequent unassisted performance is overestimated when predicted from earlier AI-assisted performance. We use a Bayesian latent ability model to separate initial ability, post-AI ability, and participant-specific skill change, while estimating how independent reasoning during the AI-access phase relates to skill development. The results show that greater independent problem-solving effort is associated with larger gains in latent ability, consistent with the interpretation that skill development is weaker when AI assistance substitutes for independent reasoning.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Metacognition in LLMs: Foundations, Progress, and Opportunities

Metacognition is a foundational component of intelligence critical to effective learning, problem solving, decision-making, communication, and more. In recent years, it has become increasingly recognized as a cornerstone of capable, transparent AI systems. Yet while LLMs have made significant progress across diverse real-world tasks, it is not yet clear when, how, or to what extent they can exhibit or be endowed with effective metacognitive abilities, nor how such abilities can be adapted to advance the fundamental capabilities, reliability, and intelligence of AI systems. This paper bridges this gap by presenting the first comprehensive overview of the current state of knowledge on metacognition for LLMs. We analyze and taxonomize the landscape of this emerging field and summarize recent technical advancements, including methods and benchmarks to measure and evaluate LLMs' metacognitive abilities, techniques to elicit, improve, and apply metacognition in LLMs, and findings and implications of ongoing research. We also discuss applications, open questions and challenges, and promising directions for future work. Our aim is to provide a detailed and up-to-date review of this topic and stimulate meaningful research and discussion. An organized list of papers can be found at https://github.com/yale-nlp/LLM-Metacognition.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

From `May' to `Is': Certainty Distortion in Language Model Rewriting

Humans increasingly turn to Language Models (LMs) in ways that shape beliefs and drive decisions, including discussing, rewriting, and summarizing information from scientific articles, news, and medical reports. However, in these domains, where how confidently a claim is expressed matters, little is known about whether LMs faithfully preserve it. In this work, we investigate certainty distortion in LMs, defined as meaningful changes in expressed certainty when semantic content is preserved. We propose an LM-based evaluation metric that is consistent with population-level judgments of certainty. Using this metric, we characterize certainty distortion across different sizes and families of models in the context of scientific and medical communication tasks. Our results show that certainty distortion affects up to 75\% of LM outputs and is systematically asymmetric in rewriting tasks with most LMs being 1.5-2$\times$ more likely to increase the expressed certainty than to decrease it. These effects can compound over repeated paraphrasing: in the medical domain, claude-haiku-4-5 increases certainty of 20\% examples after a single iteration, increasing to 40\% after five iterations. Prompt-based interventions reduce overall certainty distortion but do not eliminate it. Together, these findings reveal a general bias toward inflating expressed certainty, with direct implications for users who rely on LMs in high-stakes domains.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

The Impact of AI Usage and Informativeness on Skill Development in Logical Reasoning

Artificial intelligence (AI) is being increasingly integrated into human problem-solving, yet its effects on individual skill development remain unclear. We examine how both AI usage and informativeness can shape learning in the context of a controlled logical reasoning task with on-demand access to AI assistance. We find that greater AI usage is associated with weaker skill development: heavy AI users underperform relative to comparable peers, whereas light AI users perform similarly to matched users who do not use AI. We also find in our study that these patterns are mediated by AI informativeness. Low-information AI neither improves immediate performance nor preserves performance after AI assistance is removed, and is linked to weaker learning overall. On the other hand, high-information AI was found to improve short-run performance without reducing post-AI outcomes on average in our experiments, but with heterogeneous effects. Our findings in general suggest that AI can, depending on context, either complement human skill development by amplifying independent reasoning or can act as a substitute that undermines such reasoning, with the implication that regulating AI access and usage will be important for promoting skill development in the presence of AI assistance.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Learning to Trust: How Humans Mentally Recalibrate AI Confidence Signals

Productive human-AI collaboration requires appropriate reliance, yet contemporary AI systems are often miscalibrated, exhibiting systematic overconfidence or underconfidence. We investigate whether humans can learn to mentally recalibrate AI confidence signals through repeated experience. In a behavioral experiment (N = 200), participants predicted the AI's correctness across four AI calibration conditions: standard, overconfidence, underconfidence, and a counterintuitive "reverse confidence" mapping. Results demonstrate robust learning across all conditions, with participants significantly improving their accuracy, discrimination, and calibration alignment over 50 trials. We present a computational model utilizing a linear-in-log-odds (LLO) transformation and a Rescorla-Wagner learning rule to explain these dynamics. The model reveals that humans adapt by updating their baseline trust and confidence sensitivity, using asymmetric learning rates to prioritize the most informative errors. While humans can compensate for monotonic miscalibration, we identify a significant boundary in the reverse confidence scenario, where a substantial proportion of participants struggled to override initial inductive biases. These findings provide a mechanistic account of how humans adapt their trust in AI confidence signals through experience.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2026

Strategic Shaping of Human Prosociality: A Latent-State POMDP Framework

We propose a decision-theoretic framework in which a robot strategically can shape inferred human's prosocial state during repeated interactions. Modeling the human's prosociality as a latent state that evolves over time, the robot learns to infer and influence this state through its own actions, including helping and signaling. We formalize this as a latent-state POMDP with limited observations and learn the transition and observation dynamics using expectation maximization. The resulting belief-based policy balances task and social objectives, selecting actions that maximize long-term cooperative outcomes. We evaluate the model using data from user studies and show that the learned policy outperforms baseline strategies in both team performance and increasing observed human cooperative behavior.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2026

Human-AI Synergy Supports Collective Creative Search

Generative AI is increasingly transforming creativity into a hybrid human-artificial process, but its impact on the quality and diversity of creative output remains unclear. We study collective creativity using a controlled word-guessing task that balances open-endedness with an objective measure of task performance. Participants attempt to infer a hidden target word, scored based on the semantic similarity of their guesses to the target, while also observing the best guess from previous players. We compare performance and outcome diversity across human-only, AI-only, and hybrid human-AI groups. Hybrid groups achieve the highest performance while preserving high diversity of guesses. Within hybrid groups, both humans and AI agents systematically adjust their strategies relative to single-agent conditions, suggesting higher-order interaction effects, whereby agents adapt to each other's presence. Although some performance benefits can be reproduced through collaboration between heterogeneous AI systems, human-AI collaboration remains superior, underscoring complementary roles in collective creativity.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Generalization of Fine-Tuned Uncertainty Communication and Metacognition in Large Language Models

Background. Large language models are increasingly used in settings where confident but incorrect answers can mislead users. Reliable uncertainty communication requires a form of metacognition: monitoring when one's own answers are likely to be correct. Yet models' stated confidence is often poorly aligned with answer correctness. We test whether supervised fine-tuning improves uncertainty communication and whether gains transfer across domains and task formats. Methods. We fine-tuned two models on general knowledge, mathematics, and open-ended trivia questions. We evaluated single-question confidence estimation, in which the model reports numeric confidence for one answer, and pairwise confidence comparison, in which it chooses which of two questions it is more likely to answer correctly. We tested held-out questions from training domains and new medical, legal, and truthfulness benchmarks. We assessed calibration, discrimination, and answer accuracy before and after fine-tuning. Results. Here we show that fine-tuning improves alignment between stated confidence and observed accuracy and increases the model's ability to assign higher confidence to correct than to incorrect answers. Gains occur within training domains and, to a lesser extent, in new domains. However, single-task training does not reliably transfer between single-question confidence estimation and pairwise confidence comparison. Multitask fine-tuning produces broader gains in the models and tasks studied here. Conclusions. Uncertainty communication in large language models is trainable, but transfer across metacognitive tasks is limited. Joint training on multiple confidence tasks may support broader generalization, although further tests across model families and metacognitive tasks are needed.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

When not to help: planning for lasting human-AI collaboration

AI systems and technologies that can interact with humans in real time face a communication dilemma: when to offer assistance and how frequently. Overly frequent or contextually redundant assistance can cause users to disengage, undermining the long-term benefits of AI assistance. We introduce a cognitive modeling framework based on Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) that addresses this timing challenge by inferring a user's latent cognitive state related to AI engagement over time. Additionally, our framework incorporates reasoning about the long-term effects of AI assistance, explicitly aiming to avoid actions that could lead the human user to disengage or deactivate the AI. A key component of our approach is counterfactual reasoning: at each time step, the AI considers how well the user would perform independently and weighs the potential boost in performance against the risk of diminishing engagement with the AI. Through simulations, we show that this adaptive strategy significantly outperforms baseline policies in which assistance is always provided or never provided. Our results highlight the importance of balancing short-term decision accuracy with sustained user engagement, showing how communication strategies can be optimized to avoid alert fatigue while preserving the user's receptiveness to AI guidance.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

Beyond Accuracy: How AI Metacognitive Sensitivity improves AI-assisted Decision Making

In settings where human decision-making relies on AI input, both the predictive accuracy of the AI system and the reliability of its confidence estimates influence decision quality. We highlight the role of AI metacognitive sensitivity -- its ability to assign confidence scores that accurately distinguish correct from incorrect predictions -- and introduce a theoretical framework for assessing the joint impact of AI's predictive accuracy and metacognitive sensitivity in hybrid decision-making settings. Our analysis identifies conditions under which an AI with lower predictive accuracy but higher metacognitive sensitivity can enhance the overall accuracy of human decision making. Finally, a behavioral experiment confirms that greater AI metacognitive sensitivity improves human decision performance. Together, these findings underscore the importance of evaluating AI assistance not only by accuracy but also by metacognitive sensitivity, and of optimizing both to achieve superior decision outcomes.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Bayesian Inference for Correlated Human Experts and Classifiers

Applications of machine learning often involve making predictions based on both model outputs and the opinions of human experts. In this context, we investigate the problem of querying experts for class label predictions, using as few human queries as possible, and leveraging the class probability estimates of pre-trained classifiers. We develop a general Bayesian framework for this problem, modeling expert correlation via a joint latent representation, enabling simulation-based inference about the utility of additional expert queries, as well as inference of posterior distributions over unobserved expert labels. We apply our approach to two real-world medical classification problems, as well as to CIFAR-10H and ImageNet-16H, demonstrating substantial reductions relative to baselines in the cost of querying human experts while maintaining high prediction accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Metacognition and Uncertainty Communication in Humans and Large Language Models

Metacognition--the capacity to monitor and evaluate one's own knowledge and performance--is foundational to human decision-making, learning, and communication. As large language models (LLMs) become increasingly embedded in both high-stakes and widespread low-stakes contexts, it is important to assess whether, how, and to what extent they exhibit metacognitive abilities. Here, we provide an overview of current knowledge of LLMs' metacognitive capacities, how they might be studied, and how they relate to our knowledge of metacognition in humans. We show that while humans and LLMs can sometimes appear quite aligned in their metacognitive capacities and behaviors, it is clear many differences remain; attending to these differences is important for enhancing human-AI collaboration. Finally, we discuss how endowing future LLMs with more sensitive and more calibrated metacognition may also help them develop new capacities such as more efficient learning, self-direction, and curiosity.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Human-AI Collaboration: Trade-offs Between Performance and Preferences

Despite the growing interest in collaborative AI, designing systems that seamlessly integrate human input remains a major challenge. In this study, we developed a task to systematically examine human preferences for collaborative agents. We created and evaluated five collaborative AI agents with strategies that differ in the manner and degree they adapt to human actions. Participants interacted with a subset of these agents, evaluated their perceived traits, and selected their preferred agent. We used a Bayesian model to understand how agents' strategies influence the Human-AI team performance, AI's perceived traits, and the factors shaping human-preferences in pairwise agent comparisons. Our results show that agents who are more considerate of human actions are preferred over purely performance-maximizing agents. Moreover, we show that such human-centric design can improve the likability of AI collaborators without reducing performance. We find evidence for inequality-aversion effects being a driver of human choices, suggesting that people prefer collaborative agents which allow them to meaningfully contribute to the team. Taken together, these findings demonstrate how collaboration with AI can benefit from development efforts which include both subjective and objective metrics.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Hybrid Forecasting of Geopolitical Events

Sound decision-making relies on accurate prediction for tangible outcomes ranging from military conflict to disease outbreaks. To improve crowdsourced forecasting accuracy, we developed SAGE, a hybrid forecasting system that combines human and machine generated forecasts. The system provides a platform where users can interact with machine models and thus anchor their judgments on an objective benchmark. The system also aggregates human and machine forecasts weighting both for propinquity and based on assessed skill while adjusting for overconfidence. We present results from the Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) - larger than comparable forecasting tournaments - including 1085 users forecasting 398 real-world forecasting problems over eight months. Our main result is that the hybrid system generated more accurate forecasts compared to a human-only baseline which had no machine generated predictions. We found that skilled forecasters who had access to machine-generated forecasts outperformed those who only viewed historical data. We also demonstrated the inclusion of machine-generated forecasts in our aggregation algorithms improved performance, both in terms of accuracy and scalability. This suggests that hybrid forecasting systems, which potentially require fewer human resources, can be a viable approach for maintaining a competitive level of accuracy over a larger number of forecasting questions.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Perceptions of Linguistic Uncertainty by Language Models and Humans

_Uncertainty expressions_ such as "probably" or "highly unlikely" are pervasive in human language. While prior work has established that there is population-level agreement in terms of how humans quantitatively interpret these expressions, there has been little inquiry into the abilities of language models in the same context. In this paper, we investigate how language models map linguistic expressions of uncertainty to numerical responses. Our approach assesses whether language models can employ theory of mind in this setting: understanding the uncertainty of another agent about a particular statement, independently of the model's own certainty about that statement. We find that 7 out of 10 models are able to map uncertainty expressions to probabilistic responses in a human-like manner. However, we observe systematically different behavior depending on whether a statement is actually true or false. This sensitivity indicates that language models are substantially more susceptible to bias based on their prior knowledge (as compared to humans). These findings raise important questions and have broad implications for human-AI and AI-AI communication.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

What Large Language Models Know and What People Think They Know

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly large language models (LLMs), become increasingly integrated into decision-making processes, the ability to trust their outputs is crucial. To earn human trust, LLMs must be well calibrated such that they can accurately assess and communicate the likelihood of their predictions being correct. Whereas recent work has focused on LLMs' internal confidence, less is understood about how effectively they convey uncertainty to users. Here we explore the calibration gap, which refers to the difference between human confidence in LLM-generated answers and the models' actual confidence, and the discrimination gap, which reflects how well humans and models can distinguish between correct and incorrect answers. Our experiments with multiple-choice and short-answer questions reveal that users tend to overestimate the accuracy of LLM responses when provided with default explanations. Moreover, longer explanations increased user confidence, even when the extra length did not improve answer accuracy. By adjusting LLM explanations to better reflect the models' internal confidence, both the calibration gap and the discrimination gap narrowed, significantly improving user perception of LLM accuracy. These findings underscore the importance of accurate uncertainty communication and highlight the effect of explanation length in influencing user trust in AI-assisted decision-making environments. Code and Data can be found at https://osf.io/y7pr6/ . Journal publication can be found on Nature Machine Intelligence at https://www.nature.com/articles/s42256-024-00976-7 .

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Bayesian Online Learning for Consensus Prediction

Given a pre-trained classifier and multiple human experts, we investigate the task of online classification where model predictions are provided for free but querying humans incurs a cost. In this practical but under-explored setting, oracle ground truth is not available. Instead, the prediction target is defined as the consensus vote of all experts. Given that querying full consensus can be costly, we propose a general framework for online Bayesian consensus estimation, leveraging properties of the multivariate hypergeometric distribution. Based on this framework, we propose a family of methods that dynamically estimate expert consensus from partial feedback by producing a posterior over expert and model beliefs. Analyzing this posterior induces an interpretable trade-off between querying cost and classification performance. We demonstrate the efficacy of our framework against a variety of baselines on CIFAR-10H and ImageNet-16H, two large-scale crowdsourced datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Capturing Humans' Mental Models of AI: An Item Response Theory Approach

Improving our understanding of how humans perceive AI teammates is an important foundation for our general understanding of human-AI teams. Extending relevant work from cognitive science, we propose a framework based on item response theory for modeling these perceptions. We apply this framework to real-world experiments, in which each participant works alongside another person or an AI agent in a question-answering setting, repeatedly assessing their teammate's performance. Using this experimental data, we demonstrate the use of our framework for testing research questions about people's perceptions of both AI agents and other people. We contrast mental models of AI teammates with those of human teammates as we characterize the dimensionality of these mental models, their development over time, and the influence of the participants' own self-perception. Our results indicate that people expect AI agents' performance to be significantly better on average than the performance of other humans, with less variation across different types of problems. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of these findings for human-AI interaction.

cs.LG↗