From `May' to `Is': Certainty Distortion in Language Model Rewriting

Abstract

Humans increasingly turn to Language Models (LMs) in ways that shape beliefs and drive decisions, including discussing, rewriting, and summarizing information from scientific articles, news, and medical reports. However, in these domains, where how confidently a claim is expressed matters, little is known about whether LMs faithfully preserve it. In this work, we investigate certainty distortion in LMs, defined as meaningful changes in expressed certainty when semantic content is preserved. We propose an LM-based evaluation metric that is consistent with population-level judgments of certainty. Using this metric, we characterize certainty distortion across different sizes and families of models in the context of scientific and medical communication tasks. Our results show that certainty distortion affects up to 75\% of LM outputs and is systematically asymmetric in rewriting tasks with most LMs being 1.5-2$\times$ more likely to increase the expressed certainty than to decrease it. These effects can compound over repeated paraphrasing: in the medical domain, claude-haiku-4-5 increases certainty of 20\% examples after a single iteration, increasing to 40\% after five iterations. Prompt-based interventions reduce overall certainty distortion but do not eliminate it. Together, these findings reveal a general bias toward inflating expressed certainty, with direct implications for users who rely on LMs in high-stakes domains.