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Mark Vogelsberger

Publications and source records attributed to Mark Vogelsberger.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
arXiv2026

Massive Black Holes Seeded by Dark Matter -- Implications for Little Red Dots and Gravitational Wave Signatures

Observations of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) at high redshifts challenge standard seeding scenarios. We examine a dissipative self-interacting dark matter (dSIDM) model in which gravothermal collapse leads to the formation of massive BH seeds ab initio. We utilize a semi-analytical framework to predict properties of the dSIDM-seeded SMBH population. Billion solar mass quasars are reproduced along with low-mass faint active galactic nuclei (known as little red dots) with SMBH-to-galaxy stellar mass ratios consistent with recent James Webb Space Telescope observations. To match the abundance of the observed bright quasars, a percent-level duty-cycle is suggested, implying a large population of dormant SMBHs. The gravitational wave (GW) signals from mergers of these massive SMBHs can be detected by LISA while remaining within the NANOGrav constraints on the GW background. These results provide testable signatures of DM-driven SMBH formation, offering a pathway to probe hidden-sector physics through SMBH and GW observables.

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arXiv2026

What becomes of JWST/NIRCam-selected high-redshift massive galaxies?

Early JWST/NIRCam surveys revealed a puzzling population of high-redshift massive galaxy candidates largely absent from previous rest-frame UV surveys. Spectroscopic follow-up has both confirmed and contested these candidates, whose potential overabundance may challenge traditional models of galaxy formation. In this study we evaluate the reliability of the photometric selections used to identify these candidates in observational data by applying them to galaxies in the TNG300 simulation with synthetic dust-attenuated photometry. Among the five observational selection criteria considered, we find that the selection presented by Pérez-González et al. is the most reliable and inclusive. Nevertheless, only 1 of the 18 galaxies at $z\sim5$ with $M_{\star} \geq 10^{11}~\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ in the simulation satisfies this selection; the remaining 17 galaxies are on average $\sim0.5$ mag bluer than the color selection under the adopted dust model. We construct an improved JWST/NIRCam color-magnitude selection that provides a more complete census of massive galaxies at $z\sim5$ in TNG300 while excluding dusty, low-mass galaxies identified by criteria from the observational literature. We investigate the descendants of the most massive NIRCam-selected galaxies at $z=7,~4,$ and $2$ in TNG300, finding that they rarely evolve into the most massive galaxies by $z=0$. In general only the high-redshift massive galaxies that undergo substantial late-time ($z\lesssim0.2$) merger-driven growth become the most massive galaxies in the Universe today. Together these results suggest that current observational JWST/NIRCam selections are not identifying the most massive high-redshift galaxies, and caution against interpreting high-redshift massive galaxies as direct progenitors of the most massive galaxies at $z=0$.

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arXiv2026

The Thesan-Zoom project: bursty star formation is incompatible with prolonged dust survival

Cosmic dust is a key regulator of galaxy evolution, but its build-up and survival in the first billion years remain poorly constrained. We present a systematic analysis of dust in the thesan-zoom suite of radiation-hydrodynamical zoom-in simulations, which self-consistently model dust formation, growth, destruction, and its coupling to radiative transfer in galaxies at $z \geq 3$, a multi-phase ISM and bursty star formation histories. The simulated galaxies reproduce the observed trends of dust-to-gas and dust-to-metal ratios with gas metallicity, while showing a dust deficit at high specific star-formation rates. They also broadly match observed dust temperatures and UV-IR spatial offsets. We find that dust and its properties are strongly time-variable and tightly linked to bursty star formation, with short-lived IR-bright phases (median duration of $20.3^{+2.3}_{-2.4}$ Myr) and longer dust-poor phases, naturally producing a correlation between dust temperature and distance from the star-forming main sequence. The predicted attenuation at $1500$ Å is low compared to observations, even when including unresolved dust through post processing, indicating that a mechanism able to shield dust from strong feedback events is necessary to reconcile our galaxy formation model with observations. In our model, bursty star formation prevents the survival of large dust reservoirs ($M_{dust} / M_{star} \geq 10^{-3}$) over a significant fraction of cosmic time. This implies that bursty star formation can produce the observed overabundance of UV-bright galaxies at $z \geq 10$ only if it rapidly settles down by $z \sim 8$ (where large dust reservoirs are detected). It is also possible that our models lack physical ingredients or emergent phenomena that aid the survival of dust. Future observations of high-redshift dust will be key to diagnose the physical mechanism at play in the first galaxies.

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arXiv2026

Globular cluster abundance patterns inherited from giant molecular clouds

Globular clusters exhibit large star-to-star variations and anticorrelations in their light element abundances that are commonly interpreted in terms of in-cluster self-enrichment, in which ejecta from early-forming cluster stars pollute the gas from which later stars form over millions of years. Yet proposed self-enrichment scenarios suffer from a severe mass-budget problem or invoke exotic stellar populations. Using cosmological radiation-hydrodynamic simulations with a standard chemical enrichment model, we identify a population of giant molecular clouds whose internal abundance patterns reproduce several key globular cluster signatures: large light-element abundance spreads and nitrogen-oxygen anticorrelations at nearly constant iron abundance. These clouds form at the restart of star-formation activity after an earlier starburst, where previously ejected oxygen-rich gas collides with nitrogen-rich galactic gas, and are sites of dense star-cluster formation. In this picture, the chemical abundance patterns of globular clusters need not require extended in-cluster star formation, but can be inherited at birth from chemically structured interstellar gas shaped by the baryon cycle. Globular clusters therefore provide a fossil record of chemical enrichment and gas flows in high-redshift galaxies.

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arXiv2026

A Novel Implementation of Self-Interacting Dark Matter in AREPO

Self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) influences halo structure through collisional heat transport and may solve several small-scale puzzles in structure formation. SIDM creates thermalized cores in low-mass haloes, which may account for the observed cored dwarf galaxies. During late-time gravothermal core collapse, SIDM can produce dense low-mass DM haloes and substructures detected through perturbations to cold stellar streams and strong gravitational lenses. In this work, we present a new Monte-Carlo SIDM implementation in the moving-mesh code AREPO-2, designed for efficiency, scalability, and extensibility. The central feature of the implementation is a dedicated DM-only neighbour-search tree that decouples the scattering solver from gravity. This preserves compatibility with the hierarchical time integration used by AREPO-2 while leaving the optimized gravity solver unconstrained. A pairwise communication scheme between MPI tasks allows tracking multiple scattering events in a single timestep while conserving momentum and energy and maintaining parallel consistency by construction. This is complemented by a per-pair timestep criterion that significantly reduces unnecessary timestep restrictions. The implementation natively supports velocity-dependent cross-sections and inelastic interactions, while a compact interface is designed for additional SIDM physics to be implemented without knowledge of the parallelization layer. We validate the implementation for isotropic, elastic scattering using a suite of idealized and cosmological tests. We assess performance and scalability in isolated core-collapse simulations and in cosmological boxes, both DM-only and with baryons. Except during the late stages of gravothermal collapse, SIDM simulations incur only modest overhead relative to the corresponding CDM runs and are substantially faster than the previous SIDM implementation in AREPO-1.

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arXiv2026

A Universal Dance of Galactic Disks: Ubiquitous Precession and Its Implications

Precession is a very common phenomenon for small-scale astronomical objects. However, the precession of galactic disks, occurring on a scale larger than kilo-parsec, has barely been studied in the literature. Quantifying this precession in observations remains challenging due to the lack of high-resolution dynamical data. Cosmological simulations, where gravitational interactions are self-consistently modeled, offer a unique avenue for investigating disk precession. Leveraging the IllustrisTNG simulations, we trace the evolution of spin orientation in Milky Way-like galaxies over cosmic time. We find that disk precession is ubiquitous in galaxies and significantly affects galaxy evolution. The precession is driven by the external tidal torque originating from the anisotropic matter distribution within $30\ \mathrm{kpc}$, and is violent at $\mathrm{z} > 1$ and becomes gentler but significant at $\mathrm{z} \sim 0$, when the disks are considered dynamically settled. Disk precession can induce significant cold gas warp, which is often observed in the Milky Way and nearby galaxies. We predict that the Milky Way is precessing at a rate of $\simeq3-10$ degrees per billion years at current epoch based on its observed warp. Violent precession can heat the orbits of stars, which may eventually produce prolate elliptical galaxies. The tidal torque from central galaxies can cause the precession of nearby satellite galaxies and causes their disks to point towards the centrals, which explains the observational radial alignment. We also find that the precession of accreted cold gas stream, regulated by the galaxies' torque, is crucial for the evolution of disk galaxies.

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arXiv2026

From THESAN-ZOOM to JWST: Predicting ionizing photon escape and the rise of UV-bright reionization sources

Understanding the sources and evolution of cosmic reionization remains a central challenge in astrophysics, with the escape of ionizing Lyman-continuum (LyC) photons from early galaxies representing a major uncertainty. In this work, we use more than 35,000 galaxy realisations from the THESAN-ZOOM cosmological radiation-hydrodynamic simulations to identify indirect diagnostics of the LyC photon escape fraction ($f_\mathrm{esc}$) and the LyC photon escape rate ($\dot{N}_\mathrm{ion,esc}$) across the redshift range $z=3-16$. We train random forest regression models using these diagnostics to predict both quantities. We present four models: two trained with the full set of simulation-derived indicators to predict $f_\mathrm{esc}$ and $\dot{N}_\mathrm{ion,esc}$, and two restricted to observables accessible to JWST photometric surveys. We find the 10-to-100$\,$Myr star-formation rate ratio ($\mathrm{SFR}_{10} / \mathrm{SFR}_{100}$) and the gas-to-stellar mass ratio ($M_\mathrm{gas} / M_*$) to be the strongest diagnostics of $f_\mathrm{esc}$, suggesting a strong relationship between ionizing photon escape and gas clearing through bursty star formation. In contrast, rest-frame UV ($1500 \, Å$) absolute magnitude ($M_\mathrm{UV}$) dominates $\dot{N}_\mathrm{ion,esc}$ prediction. Motivated by the strong predictive power of $M_\mathrm{UV}$, we combine observed UV luminosity functions with derived $\dot{N}_\mathrm{ion,esc} - M_\mathrm{UV}$ relations to construct histories of reionization. These are consistent with observational constraints, avoiding the recently reported crisis in the ionizing photon budget. Our analysis suggests that the bulk of reionization occurred rapidly after $z \approx 8$, driven by UV-bright galaxies, with the $M_\mathrm{UV} < -17$ populations providing the dominant contribution.

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arXiv2026

Supermassive Black Hole Assembly from Heavy Seeds with Dynamical Friction in the BRAHMA Simulations: Implications for JWST, LISA, and the Local Universe

The JWST discoveries of supermassive black holes (BHs) at $z \gtrsim 5$ may provide key insights into their seeding origins. Using new $[18{-}72~\rm Mpc]^3$ BRAHMA cosmological simulations, we investigate how variations in heavy-seed prescriptions, coupled with a subgrid dynamical friction model, shape BH populations at $z \sim 5$ and $z \sim 0$. We consider two "lenient'' seed models, in which all halos containing sufficient dense & metal-poor gas form $\sim10^4$ and $\sim10^5~M_{\odot}$ seeds, and a "strict'' seed model, in which $\sim10^5 M_{\odot}$ seeds form only under additional constraints motivated by direct collapse black hole formation. By $z \sim 5$, all models produce $M_*-M_{\rm BH}$ relations broadly consistent with the observed local Universe for $M_*\gtrsim10^9~M_{\odot}$ galaxies, but only the lenient scenarios generate systems near the upper envelope of the observed local scatter. In galaxies hosting $M_{\rm BH} \sim 10^8$-$10^9~M_{\odot}$ BHs, lenient production of $\sim10^5~M_{\odot}$ seeds also produces multiple overmassive systems with $M_{\rm BH}/M_* \gtrsim 0.01$. Although their growth is dominated by seeding and mergers, these systems reach luminosities of $\sim10^{43}$-$10^{45}\mathrm{erg s^{-1}}$, comparable to those inferred for JWST-detected BHs. As a key observational signature, the lenient seed models yield merger rates of $\gtrsim100\mathrm{yr^{-1}}$ and near-unity local BH occupation fractions even in galaxies with $M_* \lesssim 10^7~M_{\odot}$. In contrast, the strict seed model produces merger rates of only $\sim1\mathrm{yr^{-1}}$ and local occupation fractions of $\lesssim10\%$ for galaxies with $M_* \lesssim 10^8~M_{\odot}$. Future gravitational-wave event rates and measurements of local BH occupation fractions will therefore provide strong constraints on the dominant pathways responsible for high-redshift BH assembly.

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arXiv2026

How to Build an Empirical Speed Distribution for Dark Matter in the Solar Neighborhood

The dark matter flux in a direct detection experiment depends on its local speed distribution. This distribution has been inferred from simulations of Milky Way-like galaxies, but such models serve only as proxies, given that no simulation directly captures the detailed evolution of our own Galaxy. This motivates alternative approaches that obtain this distribution directly from observations. In this work, we utilize 98 Milky Way analogues from the TNG50 simulation to develop and validate a procedure for inferring the dark matter speed distribution using the kinematics of nearby stars. We find that the dark matter that originated from old mergers, plus that from recent nonluminous accretions, is well described by a Maxwell-Boltzmann speed distribution centered at the local standard-of-rest velocity. Meanwhile, recently accreted dark matter from massive mergers has speeds that can be traced from the associated stellar debris of these events. The stellar populations systematically underestimate the velocity dispersion of their dark matter counterparts, but a simple kinematic boost brings the two into good alignment. Using the TNG50 host galaxies, we demonstrate that combining these two contributions provides an accurate reconstruction of the local dark matter speeds. As an application of the procedure to our own Galaxy, we utilize stellar kinematic data from Gaia to quantify how the dark matter remnants from the Milky Way's last major merger impact its speed distribution in the solar neighborhood.

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arXiv2026

The Lumina Project: The Demographics of Active Galactic Nuclei from Quasars to Little Red Dots at $z\geq 3$

High-redshift active galactic nuclei (AGN) serve as powerful probes of early black-hole growth, galaxy formation, and the evolving intergalactic medium (IGM). In this work, we use Lumina, a cosmological radiation-hydrodynamic simulation spanning the epochs of hydrogen and helium reionization, which combines a large $(500\,{\rm cMpc})^3$ volume with $2\times 6000^3$ resolution elements, to explore high-redshift AGN. The simulation self-consistently follows hundreds of millions of galaxies and supermassive black holes (SMBHs), together with their impact on the ionization and thermal state of the IGM. We exploit this uniquely large dynamic range to predict multi-band AGN luminosity functions (LFs) at $z \geq 3$, from hard X-rays to the mid-infrared. These predictions encompass both moderately luminous quasars and the faint ``Little Red Dots'' (LRDs) uncovered by JWST. We develop an empirical model that maps simulated SMBHs onto observed AGN using bolometric and extinction/absorption corrections for canonical AGN and LRDs, and in which SMBHs with $M_{\rm BH}\leq 10\,M_{\rm seed} \sim 10^{7}\,{\rm M}_{\odot}$ stay in the LRD phase with a duty cycle of $30\%$. This simple framework reproduces the observed LFs and clustering of LRDs. Meanwhile, the pre-JWST quasar LF constraints are recovered, although we find that a $\sim 0.3$ dex log-normal scatter in bolometric luminosity is required to reproduce the bright end. We place the simulated AGN population in the cosmological context by quantifying the redshift evolution of AGN and LRD number densities, and their contributions to the integrated BH mass densities. The same AGN population is the dominant driver for the HeII reionization modelled self-consistently in Lumina. This empirical AGN model paves the way for general population-synthesis models of high-redshift AGN, including LRDs, in a unified cosmological framework.

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arXiv2026

The Lumina Project: CMB Optical Depth Fluctuations from Patchy Reionization

Patchy reionization couples the ionized-bubble morphology to the underlying density field, making the CMB Thomson optical depth sensitive to both the global ionization history and anisotropic fluctuations on the sky. Using the large-volume radiation-hydrodynamical Lumina simulation, we compute $τ_{\rm CMB}$ in two ways: (i) from global volume- and mass-weighted ionization histories, and (ii) from explicit line-of-sight integrations through on-the-fly light cones. We find that the sightline-averaged optical depth in the light cone, $\langle τ_{\rm LOS} \rangle = 0.0550$, exceeds the value inferred from a global volume-weighted history, $τ_{{\rm CMB},V} = 0.0515$, by $\approx 7\%$. This enhancement is largely captured by the global mass-weighted prediction, $τ_{{\rm CMB},m} = 0.0544$, indicating that precision comparisons to CMB optical-depth constraints should use mass-weighted electron fractions or explicit light-cone integration rather than volume-weighted ionized fractions alone. The excess optical depth accumulates primarily near $z_{\rm LOS} = 8.0^{+1.9}_{-1.3}$, where the combination of high physical density and strong ionization-field patchiness is greatest. The resulting $τ_{\rm LOS}$ field is non-Gaussian and exhibits $\gtrsim 5\%$ sightline-to-sightline scatter, with fluctuations tracing rare early-ionized overdensities and large-scale structure. Coarse-graining experiments show that smoothing the ionization field on $\gtrsim 3 {\rm cMpc}$ scales suppresses the density-ionization correlation and biases $τ_{\rm CMB}$ low relative to the resolved calculation. Finally, angular power spectra and real-space correlation functions decomposed into HII, HeII, and HeIII auto- and cross-contributions reveal scale-dependent departures from simple hydrogen-helium co-tracing and evolving characteristic scales with redshift.

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arXiv2026

The SMUGGLE-Ring project: Bar and bulge effects on nuclear disk and ring formation

We present the first results from the SMUGGLE-Ring project, a suite of simulations employing the SMUGGLE ISM and stellar feedback model to explore nuclear structures in Milky Way-mass galaxies. We discuss results from three simulations evolved for 5 Gyr in isolation, in which we vary the classical bulge mass, while keeping the disk and halo structures identical. Nuclear stellar disks and rings emerge exclusively in our bulge models, with more massive bulges associated with earlier formation and more extended initial gas reservoirs shortly after bar formation. After gas depletion via active star formation, the nuclear stellar disks bifurcate into pressure-supported nuclear star clusters (NSCs, $v_ϕ/σ_R < 0.7$) and rotationally supported nuclear stellar rings (NSRs, $v_ϕ/σ_R = 1.2$--1.7, radii 0.64--0.76 kpc). The bulgeless model fails to build up and sustain stable nuclear gas disks against feedback disruptions. The enclosed stellar mass of NSCs ($\sim10^{9}\Msun$) dominates over that of NSRs ($\sim10^{8}\Msun$). The star formation rates decline over time due to gas depletion (NSCs 0.1--1 $\Msun$/yr, NSRs 0.01--$0.1 \Msun$/yr). Kinematics reveal outward-shifting rotation peaks with $σ$-drops in NSRs, while a fraction of stars in NSCs exhibits radial shift after 3 Gyr. These findings support inside-out NSD formation via secular bar evolution, with NSRs tracing the star-forming outer edge of the nuclear gas disk and NSCs forming the kinematically hotter inner component. The range of nuclear stellar disk sizes (0.25--0.76 kpc) falls within the observationally inferred ranges, but the existence of larger rings would require external gas flow and/or a longer period of evolution. Future SMUGGLE-Ring extensions will incorporate varying gas fractions, tidal/merger effects, and the circumgalactic medium to further elucidate nuclear diversity and outliers.

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arXiv2026

Probing the Hot Gaseous Halos of Milky Way-like Galaxies in the TNG50 simulation

The origin and structure of the hot ($T\gtrsim10^6$K) gaseous halo around Milky Way (MW)-mass galaxies provide a critical test for galaxy formation models. We perform a comprehensive comparison for a sample of MW analogues from the TNG50 cosmological simulation by generating synthetic soft X-ray emission and O VII/O VIII absorption lines, viewed from both internal (Solar) and external perspectives. The simulated halos successfully reproduce the observed global soft X-ray luminosity, inner-halo X-ray surface brightness, emission measure, and O VII absorption strength. However, two interconnected discrepancies are identified. First, the azimuthally averaged X-ray surface brightness profile from external viewpoints declines too steeply with radius compared to the extended emission detected in eROSITA stacking of SDSS galaxies, falling below the observations by up to $\sim 1$ dex at $R \gtrsim 100$ kpc. Second, the halos systematically underproduce O VIII absorption, with a median equivalent width $\sim 65\%$ lower than that observed in the Galactic halo, pointing to a deficit of hotter-phase gas at $T\sim(1.6-3.2)\times10^6$ K. These findings indicate that the simulated hot halos are too spatially compact and lack a hotter gas phase, suggesting that the TNG50 feedback model, while generating hot gas, deposits energy too centrally and too vigorously to sustain a gently extended, multi-phase corona.

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arXiv2026

The LISA Astrophysics MBHcatalogues Project: A comparison of predictions of simulated massive black hole binaries

In the hierarchical paradigm of galaxy formation, central massive black holes (MBHs) are expected to coalesce after the merger of their host galaxies. One of the main goals of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is to constrain the origin and growth of MBHs through their merger rates and mass distribution. Predicting MBH merger rates requires not only tracing their statistical population from large to small physical scales (kpc to sub-pc) but also modelling their formation, accretion, dynamics, mergers, and their galactic physical processes across cosmic time. This project is the result of a large collaborative effort undertaken by the LISA Astrophysics Working Group, bringing together its collective expertise on MBH formation, evolution, and modelling, to build a comprehensive understanding of MBH merger rates across cosmic time. The project compares various theoretical predictions of MBH merger rates, quantifies the spread, and evaluates the global astrophysical uncertainties of the LISA event rates. To build a unique and complete view, our work is based on about 20 semi-analytical models and cosmological simulations from the literature, all employing distinct approaches to modelling MBH and galaxy physics. To compute the merger rates, we also incorporate delays arising from the dynamical phase of MBH hardening to coalescence. We present the expected LISA merger rates given current galaxy formation models and discuss how the merger rate depends on model assumptions, such as the seeding model and the resolution of cosmological simulations.

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arXiv2026

Role of prompt cusps in driving the core collapse of SIDM halos

Prompt cusps (PCs) form from the direct collapse of overdensities in the early Universe, reside at the center of every dark matter halo, and have density profiles steeper than $r^{-1}$ NFW cusps. Using a suite of high-resolution N-body simulations, we study the evolution of isolated halos in self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) with massive PCs embedded at their centers, a scenario that could be realized in certain SIDM models with light mediators that predict a small-scale suppression of the linear matter power spectrum. We track the evolution of three equally concentrated $10^7\,{\rm{M}}_\odot$ halos, hosting PCs of various total masses, and quantify how the presence of a PC affects the processes of core formation and collapse. Early in the core-formation phase, halos with more prominent PCs exhibit a delayed evolution by a factor of $\sim 2$ due to smaller velocity dispersion gradients in the inner region. During most of the core-collapse phase, the halo evolution becomes closely aligned in physical time, with appropriate rescaling of densities, radii, and velocity dispersions. The scale densities and radii preserve the virial mass of the original halos, but with increased concentration. Deviations occur at the late phase of core-collapse at the level of $\sim 5\%$ relative to the reference collapse track of an NFW halo. These deviations depend non-trivially on both the increased concentration incurred by the PCs, as well as the velocity dispersion (temperature) of the outer halo regions, which can inhibit or enhance the heat transfer process. Our simulations illustrate the complex interplay between the inner and outer halo profiles in determining the onset of core collapse and motivate future studies in the full cosmological context.

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arXiv2026

Unraveling Chemical Enrichment in Extreme Emission-Line Galaxies: A Multi-Element Bayesian View of Bursty Star Formation and Galaxy Evolution in DESI

Extreme emission-line galaxies (EELGs) probe chemical enrichment in low-mass, bursty systems where star formation, feedback, and gas accretion are poorly constrained. Using DESI DR1, we select 23 nearby EELGs with detections of 19 ionic species (S/N $\geq$ 4), stellar masses $ M_* \geq 10^7 M_{\odot}$, and extreme H$α$ and [O III] 5007 equivalent widths (EW $\geq$ 500 Angstrom). We infer non-parametric star-formation histories and fit a Bayesian single-zone chemical-evolution model to O, N, Ne, S, and Ar, allowing time-dependent star-formation efficiency, outflow mass loading, and evolving inflow metallicity. We find short depletion timescales and large mass-loading factors, indicating rapid gas cycling in a burst-driven, non-equilibrium regime, with depletion times below Kennicutt-Schmidt expectations. Star-formation efficiency and outflows are well constrained, while inflow metallicity is weaker due to degeneracies with metal production. Abundance ratios isolate physical drivers: star-formation efficiency sets evolutionary tracks, outflows regulate metal retention and X/O normalization, and inflow metallicity sets baseline enrichment. N/O strongly constrains burst timing and gas flows, Ne/O remains nearly invariant, and S/O and Ar/O show intermediate sensitivity. These results demonstrate that multi-element abundances provide a direct probe of baryon-cycle processes in extreme low-mass starbursts.

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arXiv2026

The THESAN project: Lyman-alpha emitters as probes of ionized bubble sizes

We use the THESAN radiation-hydrodynamics simulations to investigate how Lyman-$α$ emitters (LAEs) trace ionized bubble sizes during the Epoch of Reionization. We generate realistic LAE catalogs by combining accurate intrinsic Ly$α$ production and intergalactic transmission with an empirical model for dust absorption and gas outflows. By calibrating to observationally-constrained Ly$α$ luminosity functions, we reproduce the rapid decline in Ly$α$ visibility toward higher redshifts while revealing mild tensions in LAE fractions near the end of reionization. Before the midpoint of reionization, galaxies within larger line-of-sight bubbles ($\gtrsim 10$ cMpc) have higher observed Ly$α$ luminosity and equivalent width (EW), demonstrating that the evolving LAE fraction provides a practical statistical tracer for bubble size. These correlations weaken as percolation progresses and the IGM becomes increasingly ionized. In LAE selected samples with $L_{\text{Ly}α} > 10^{41.5}\ \text{erg s}^{-1}$, Ly$α$ properties correlate with bubble size more strongly than UV magnitude, especially at $z \gtrsim 7$. This simulation-based framework maps LAE selections to bubble-size statistics, clarifies biases in more idealized models, and will supply public catalogs to interpret current and forthcoming JWST and narrow-band LAE surveys in terms of the evolving topology of reionization.

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arXiv2026

How I Wonder What You Are -- JWST's Little Red Dots do not TWINKLE

Little Red Dots (LRDs) are a population of compact, red sources that have emerged as one of the most puzzling findings of JWST. Variability provides a direct probe of their central engines. Here we present the first joint spectroscopic and photometric time-domain study of LRDs undertaken with the JWST TWINKLE slitless spectroscopy program. Surveying the FRESCO GOODS-North legacy field, TWINKLE monitors a complete, H$α$-flux-limited sample of 18 LRDs at z = 3.9-6.8, achieving a rest-frame baseline of $\sim$140-220 days. We detect no variability in photometry, H$α$ line flux, or line shape across the sample. If LRDs resembled AGN in reverberation mapping samples -- the foundation for black hole mass calibrations and luminosity scaling relations -- we would expect >10 sources to show measurable fluctuations. Observing none implies a 5.9$σ$ deficit. The non-detections hold across all broad H$α$ emitters within TWINKLE's field of view -- the 18 V-shaped LRDs as well as 9 non-LRDs. Comparison with simulated light curves disfavors sub-Eddington accretion and is instead consistent with super-Eddington accretion, other mechanisms that suppress variability, or perhaps no AGN whatsoever. If LRDs do harbor black holes, calibrations derived from sub-Eddington systems may not apply, thereby explaining JWST's apparently "overmassive" black holes. These observations provide unique constraints on the physics of one of the most enigmatic populations discovered by JWST.

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