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Mark Vogelsberger

Publications and source records attributed to Mark Vogelsberger.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
arXiv2026

Metallicity Gradients in Modern Cosmological Simulations II: The Role of Bursty Versus Smooth Feedback at High-Redshift

The distribution of gas-phase metals within galaxies encodes the impact of stellar feedback on galactic evolution. At high-redshift, when galaxies are rapidly assembling, feedback-driven outflows and turbulence can strongly reshape radial metallicity gradients. In this work, we use the FIRE-2, SPICE, Thesan and Thesan Zoom cosmological simulations -- spanning a range of stellar feedback from bursty (time-variable) to smooth (steady) -- to investigate how these feedback modes shape gas-phase metallicity gradients at $3 10^{9}~{\rm M_\odot}$. These results demonstrate that bursty stellar feedback provides sufficient turbulence to prevent strong negative gradients from forming, while smooth stellar feedback does not generically allow for efficient radial redistribution of metals thereby keeping gradients steep. Finally, we compare with recent observations, finding that the majority -- but, notably, not all -- of the observed gradients may favor a bursty stellar feedback scenario. In all, these results highlight the utility of high-resolution observations of gas-phase metallicity at high-redshift as a key discriminator of these qualitatively different feedback types.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Density Profiles

In this work, we utilize a new suite of Milky Way-mass halos from the DREAMS Project, simulated with Cold Dark Matter (CDM), to quantify the influence of baryon feedback and intrinsic halo-to-halo variance on dark matter density profiles. Our suite of 1024 halos varies over supernova and black hole feedback parameters from the IllustrisTNG model, as well as variations in two cosmological parameters. We find that, for the DREAMS parameter variations, Milky Way-mass dark matter density profiles in the IllustrisTNG model are largely insensitive to astrophysics and cosmology variations, with the dominant source of scatter instead arising from halo-to-halo variance. However, most of the (comparatively minor) feedback-driven variations come from the changes to supernova prescriptions. By comparing to dark matter-only simulations, we find that the strongest supernova wind energies are so effective at preventing galaxy formation that the halos are nearly entirely collisionless dark matter. Finally, regardless of physics variation, all the DREAMS halos are roughly consistent with a halo contracting adiabatically from the presence of baryons, unlike models that have bursty stellar feedback. This work represents a step toward assessing the uncertainty in Milky Way dark matter profiles, with direct implications for dark matter searches where systematic uncertainty in the density profile remains a major challenge.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

Dark Matter Velocity Distributions for Direct Detection: Astrophysical Uncertainties are Smaller Than They Appear

The sensitivity of direct detection experiments depends on the phase-space distribution of dark matter near the Sun, which can be modeled theoretically using cosmological hydrodynamical simulations of Milky Way-like galaxies. However, capturing the halo-to-halo variation in the local dark matter speeds -- a necessary step for quantifying the astrophysical uncertainties that feed into experimental results -- requires a sufficiently large sample of simulated galaxies, which has been a challenge. In this Letter, we quantify this variation with nearly 100 Milky Way-like galaxies from the TNG50 simulation, the largest sample to date at this resolution. Moreover, we introduce a novel phase-space scaling procedure that endows every system with a reference frame that accurately reproduces the local standard-of-rest speed of our Galaxy, providing a principled way of extrapolating the simulation results to real-world data. The ensemble of predicted speed distributions is well characterized by the standard halo model, a Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution truncated at the escape speed, though the individual distributions can deviate from it, especially at high speeds. The dark matter-nucleon cross section limits placed by these speed distributions vary by ~60% about the median. This places the 1-sigma astrophysical uncertainty at or below the level of the systematic uncertainty of current ton-scale detectors, even down to the energy threshold. The predicted uncertainty remains unchanged when subselecting on those TNG50 galaxies with merger histories similar to the Milky Way. Tabulated speed distributions, as well as Maxwell-Boltzmann fits, are provided for use in computing direct detection bounds or projecting sensitivities.

hep-ph↗
arXiv2026

Cosmological Simulations of Stellar Halos with Gaia Sausage-Enceladus Analogues: Two Sausages, One Bun?

Observations of the Milky Way's stellar halo find that it is predominantly comprised of a radially biased population of stars, dubbed the Gaia Sausage--Enceladus, or GSE. These stars are thought to be debris from dwarf galaxy accretion early in the Milky Way's history. Though typically considered to be from a single merger, it is possible that the GSE debris has multiple sources. To investigate this possibility, we use the TNG50 simulation to identify stellar accretion histories in 98 Milky Way analogues -- the largest sample for which such an identification has been performed -- and find GSE-like debris in 32, with two-merger GSEs accounting for a third of these cases. Distinguishing single-merger GSEs from two-merger GSEs is difficult in common kinematic spaces, but differences are more evident through chemical abundances and star formation histories. This is because single-merger GSEs are typically accreted more recently than the galaxies in two-merger GSEs: the median infall times (with 16th and 84th percentiles) are $5.9^{+3.3}_{-2.0}$ and $10.7^{+1.2}_{-3.7}$ Gyr ago for single- and two-merger scenarios, respectively. The systematic shifts in abundances and ages that occur as a result suggest that efforts in modeling these aspects of the stellar halo prove ever-important in understanding its assembly.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

The Growth of Dust in Galaxies in the First Billion Years with Applications to Blue Monsters

A combination of JWST observations at z~12-14 and ALMA observations of extremely dust-rich systems at z~6 has demonstrated that dust grows extremely fast in the early Universe, with galaxies amassing up to 10^7 Msun of dust in just 500 Myr between z=12->6. In this paper we demonstrate, via a series of numerical experiments conducted in cosmological zoom-in simulations, that a likely pathway for this dust accumulation in the first formed galaxies is through production at early times via supernovae, followed by the rapid growth on ultrasmall dust grains. Our main results follow. The stellar production of dust dominates until z ~ 10-11 at which point galaxies transition to a growth-dominated regime. We employ a Shapley analysis to demonstrate that the local density is the dominant factor driving dust growth, followed by the grain size distribution. A rapid rise in the small-to-large grain ratio with decreasing redshift (owing to grain-grain shattering) drives growth through increased dust surface area per unit mass. Growth models are necessary to match the dust content of ALMA detected sources at z ~ 6. Finally, we demonstrate that ``blue monsters'', massive, UV-bright galaxies at $z>10$ with extremely blue continuum slopes likely have dust-to stellar mass ratios 10^-4-10^-3, but their top-heavy grain size distributions render them optically thin in the UV, providing a natural explanation for their observed properties without requiring exotic dust geometries.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

A cosmological framework for stellar collisions at high redshift in proto-globular clusters, nuclear star clusters, and Little Red Dots

Observations and cosmological simulations indicate that the early Universe hosted numerous compact, high-density stellar systems, where close encounters and physical collisions between stars were likely common. We develop a bottom-up framework for stellar dynamics in such environments, spanning systems with and without intermediate- and supermassive black holes, and covering regimes where stellar collisions may or may not dominate the evolution. This radially-resolved analytic model connects dense star clusters in their cosmological context to observable outcomes mediated by stellar collisions. Initial conditions and environmental properties are drawn from high-resolution cosmological simulations, enabling exploration across a broad region of parameter space. The analytic predictions are validated against Monte Carlo simulations, demonstrating good agreement across key regimes. We find that stellar collisions are ubiquitous in many high-redshift environments, with runaway sequences naturally leading to the formation of very massive stars at early times. Finally, we show that high rates of destructive collisions can rapidly build up extremely dense gaseous environments around massive black holes, potentially providing an analogue to the observed population of Little Red Dots.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

Unveiling the Cosmic Chemistry II: "Direct" $T_e$-based metallicity of galaxies at 3 $< z <$ 10 with JWST/NIRSpec

We report the detection of the [O III] auroral line in 42 galaxies within the redshift range of $3 < z < 10$. These galaxies were selected from publicly available JWST data releases, including the JADES and PRIMALsurveys, and observed using both the low-resolution PRISM/CLEAR configuration and medium-resolution gratings. The measured electron temperatures in the high-ionization regions of these galaxies range from $T_e$([O III]) = 12,000 to 24,000 K, consistent with temperatures observed in local metal-poor galaxies and previous JWST studies. In 10 galaxies, we also detect the [O II] auroral line, allowing us to determine electron temperatures in the low-ionization regions, which range between $T_e$([O II]) = 10,830 and 20,000 K. The direct-$T_e$-based metallicities of our sample span from 12 + log(O/H) = 7.2 to 8.4, indicating these high-redshift galaxies are relatively metal-poor. By combining our sample with 25 galaxies from the literature, we expand the dataset to a total of 67 galaxies within $3 < z < 10$, effectively more than doubling the previous sample size for direct-$T_e$ based metallicity studies. This larger dataset allow us to derive empirical metallicity calibration relations based exclusively on high-redshift galaxies, using six key line ratios: R3, R2, R23, Ne3O2, O32, and O3N2. Notably, we derive a novel metallicity calibration relation for the first time using high-redshift $T_e$-based metallicities: $\hat{R}$ = 0.18log $R2$ + 0.98log $R3$. This new calibration significantly reduces the scatter in high-redshift galaxies compared to the $\hat{R}$ relation previously calibrated for low-redshift galaxies.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

Finding the boundary: Using galaxy membership to inform galaxy cluster extent through machine learning

The spatial extent of the environment's impact on galaxies marks a transitional region between cluster and field galaxies. We present a data-driven method to identify this region in galaxy clusters with masses $M_{200\rm ,mean}>10^{13} M_{\odot}$ at $z = 0$. Using resolved galaxy samples from the largest simulation volume of IllustrisTNG (TNG300-1), we examine how galaxy properties vary as a function of distance to the closest cluster. We train neural networks to classify galaxies into cluster and field galaxies based on their intrinsic properties. Using this classifier, we present the first quantitative and probabilistic map of the transition region. It is represented as a broad and intrinsically scattered region near cluster outskirts, rather than a sharp physical boundary. This is the physical detection of a mixed population. In order to determine transition regions of different physical processes by training property-specific models, we categorise galaxy properties based on their underlying physics, i.e. gas, stellar, and dynamical. Changes to the dynamical properties dominate the innermost regions of the clusters of all masses. Stellar properties and gas properties, on the other hand, exhibit transitions at similar locations for low mass clusters, yet gas properties have transitions in the outermost regions for high mass clusters. These results have implications for cluster environmental studies in both simulations and observations, particularly in refining the definition of cluster boundaries while considering environmental preprocessing and how galaxies evolve under the effect of the cluster environment.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

Novel density profile for isothermal cores of dark matter halos

We present a novel analytic density profile for halos in self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) models, which accurately captures the isothermal-core configuration, i.e. where both the density and velocity dispersion profiles exhibit central plateaus in the halo innermost region. Importantly, the profile retains a simple and tractable functional form. We demonstrate analytically how our density profile satisfies the aforementioned conditions, with comparisons to other contemporary functional choices. We further validate the profile using idealized N-body simulations, showing that it provides excellent representations of both the density and velocity dispersion profiles across a broad range of evolutionary stages, from the early thermalization phase to the late core-collapse regime. As a result of its accuracy and simplicity, the proposed profile offers a robust framework for analyzing halo evolution in a variety of SIDM scenarios. It also holds practical utility in reducing simulation needs and in generating initial conditions for simulations targeting the deep core-collapse regime.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2026

The AIDA-TNG project. Abundance, radial distribution, and clustering properties of halos in alternative dark matter models

Warm and self-interactive dark matter cosmologies have been proposed as nonbaryonic solutions to the tensions between the $Λ$ cold dark matter model and observations at the kiloparsec scale. In this paper, we used the dark matter-only runs of the \textsc{aida-tng} project, a set of cosmological simulations of different sizes and resolutions, to analyze the macroscopic impact of alternative dark matter models on the abundance, radial distribution, and clustering properties of halos. We adopted the halo occupation distribution formalism to characterize the evolution of its parameters $M_1$ and $α$ with the mass and redshift selection of our sample. By dividing the halo population into centrals and satellites, we were able to study their spatial density profile. We found that a Navarro-Frenk-White model is not accurate enough to describe the radial distribution of subhalos and that a generalized Navarro-Frenk-White model is required instead. Warm dark matter models, in particular, present a cuspier distribution of satellites, whereas self-interacting dark matter exhibits a shallower density profile. Moreover, we found that the small-scale clustering of dark matter halos provides a powerful tool for distinguishing among alternative dark matter scenarios, in preparation for a more detailed study that fully incorporates baryonic effects and for a comparison with observational data from galaxy clustering.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2026

The THESAN-ZOOM project: Mystery N/O more -- uncovering the origin of peculiar chemical abundances and a not-so-fundamental metallicity relation at $3<z<12$

We present an analysis of metallicities and chemical abundances at $3 -0.6$) without the need for exotic yields in our chemical network. Instead, bursty star formation naturally generates order-of-magnitude excursions in N/O on $\lesssim$100 Myr timescales due to temporally differential galactic winds; after a starburst, stellar feedback expels gas, leaving a large population of asymptotic-giant-branch stars to dominate the enrichment of the relatively low-mass interstellar medium. NRGs lie below the main sequence and typically exhibit $\mathrm{EW}[H$β$]\lesssim40$ Å, in apparent tension with observed high-EW NRGs. This tension is reconciled if observed NRGs are in the initial stages of a subsequent starburst, illuminating previously enriched gas, which is supported by the finding of high SFR surface density nitrogen-rich giant molecular clouds.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

The THESAN-ZOOM project: Burst, quench, repeat -- unveiling the evolution of high-redshift galaxies along the star-forming main sequence

Characterizing the evolution of the star-forming main sequence (SFMS) at high redshift is crucial to contextualize the observed extreme properties of galaxies in the early Universe. We present an analysis of the SFMS and its scatter in the THESAN-ZOOM simulations, where we find a redshift evolution of the SFMS normalization scaling as $\propto (1+z)^{2.64\pm0.03}$, significantly stronger than is typically inferred from observations. We can reproduce the flatter observed evolution by filtering out weakly star-forming galaxies, implying that current observational fits are biased due to a missing population of lulling galaxies or overestimated star-formation rates. We also explore star-formation variability using the scatter of galaxies around the SFMS ($σ_{\mathrm{MS}}$). At the population level, the scatter around the SFMS increases with cosmic time, driven by the increased importance of long-term environmental effects in regulating star formation at later times. To study short-term star-formation variability, or ''burstiness'', we isolate the scatter on timescales shorter than 50 Myr. The short-term scatter is larger at higher redshift, indicating that star formation is indeed more bursty in the early Universe. We identify two starburst modes: (i) externally driven, where rapid large-scale inflows trigger and fuel prolonged, extreme star formation episodes, and (ii) internally driven, where cyclical ejection and re-accretion of the interstellar medium in low-mass galaxies drive bursts, even under relatively steady large-scale inflow. Both modes occur at all redshifts, but the increased burstiness of galaxies at higher redshift is due to the increasing prevalence of the more extreme external mode of star formation.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

The THESAN-ZOOM project: central starbursts and inside-out quenching govern galaxy sizes in the early Universe

We explore the evolution of galaxy sizes at high redshift ($3 < z < 13$) using the high-resolution THESAN-ZOOM radiation-hydrodynamics simulations, focusing on the mass range of $10^6\,\mathrm{M}_{\odot} < \mathrm{M}_{\ast} < 10^{10}\,\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$. Our analysis reveals that galaxy size growth is tightly coupled to bursty star formation. Galaxies above the star-forming main sequence tend to form stars in a central starburst, which decreases their radial size. These galaxies quench inside-out, causing spatially extended star formation and increasing their radial size, leading to oscillatory behavior around the size-mass relation. Notably, we find a positive intrinsic size-mass relation at high redshift, consistent with observations but in tension with large-volume simulations. We attribute this discrepancy to the bursty star formation captured by our multi-phase interstellar medium framework, but missing from simulations using the effective equation-of-state approach with hydrodynamically decoupled feedback. We also find that the normalization of the size-mass relation follows a double power law as a function of redshift, with a break at $z\approx6$, because the majority of galaxies at $z > 6$ show rising star-formation histories, and therefore are in a compaction phase. We demonstrate that H$α$ emission is systematically extended relative to the UV continuum by a median factor of 1.7, consistent with recent JWST studies. However, in contrast to previous interpretations that link extended H$α$ sizes to inside-out growth, we find that Lyman-continuum (LyC) emission is spatially disconnected from H$α$. Instead, a simple Strömgren sphere argument reproduces observed trends, suggesting that extreme LyC production during central starbursts is the primary driver of extended nebular emission.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

Overmassive black holes in the early Universe can be explained by gas-rich, dark matter-dominated galaxies

JWST has revealed the apparent evolution of the black hole (BH)-stellar mass ($M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\rm{\ast}$) relation in the early Universe, while remaining consistent with the BH-dynamical mass ($M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{dyn}$) relation. We predict BH masses for $z>3$ galaxies in the high-resolution THESAN-ZOOM simulations by assuming the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{dyn}$ relation is fundamental. Even without live BH modelling, our approach reproduces the JWST-observed $M_\mathrm{BH}$ distribution, including overmassive BHs relative to the local $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{\ast}$ relation. We find that $M_\mathrm{BH}/M_\mathrm{\ast}$ declines with $M_\mathrm{\ast}$, evolving from $\sim$0.1 at $M_\mathrm{\ast}=10^6\,\mathrm{M_\odot}$ to $\sim$0.01 at $M_\mathrm{\ast}=10^{10.5}\,\mathrm{M_\odot}$. This trend reflects the dark matter ($f_\mathrm{DM}$) and gas fractions ($f_\mathrm{gas}$), which decrease with $M_\mathrm{\ast}$ but show little redshift evolution down to $z=3$, resulting in small $M_\mathrm{\ast}/M_\mathrm{dyn}$ ratios and thus overmassive BHs in low-mass galaxies. We use $\texttt{Prospector}$-derived stellar masses and star-formation rates to infer $f_\mathrm{gas}$ across 48,022 galaxies in JADES at $3<z<9$, finding excellent agreement with our simulation. Our results demonstrate that overmassive BHs would naturally result from a fundamental $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{dyn}$ relation and be typical of the gas-rich, dark matter-dominated nature of low-mass, high-redshift galaxies. Such overmassive BHs may strongly influence early galaxy formation, and we caution that our approach does not include the self-consistent BH-galaxy co-evolution required for a complete understanding.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

The AIDA-TNG project: dark matter profiles and concentrations in alternative dark matter models

In the standard Cold Dark Matter (CDM) scenario, the density profiles of dark matter haloes are well described by analytical models linking their concentration to halo mass. Alternative scenarios, such as warm dark matter (WDM) and self-interacting dark matter (SIDM), modify the inner structure of haloes and predict different profile shapes and central slopes. We employ the AIDA-TNG simulations to investigate how alternative dark matter physics and baryonic processes jointly shape the internal structure of haloes. Using dark-matter-only and full-physics runs, we measure the dark matter density profiles of haloes spanning six orders of magnitude in mass, from 10^9.5 Msun to 10^14.5 Msub, and characterise them with multiple analytical models. We provide the distribution of the best-fitting parameters, as well as the concentration-mass relation in WDM and SIDM. The Einasto profile well reproduces the inner flattening produced in WDM models, both in the collisionless and in the full-physics runs. In SIDM dark-matter-only runs, haloes are better described by explicitly cored profiles, with core sizes that depend on mass and on the self-interaction model. When baryons are included, the differences between CDM and SIDM decrease, and such large dark-matter cores no longer form because adiabatic contraction in the baryon-dominated region counteracts self-interactions. Nevertheless, the coupling between baryons and self-interactions induces a broader range of inner slopes, including cases that are steeper than CDM at Milky Way masses. Alternative dark matter physics thus leaves clear signatures in the inner halo structure, even if baryons significantly reshape these differences. Our results are useful for future studies that need to predict the properties of haloes in multiple dark matter models.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2026

The THESAN-ZOOM project: The Hidden Neighbours of OI Absorbers during Reionization

Metal absorbers represent a powerful probe of galaxy feedback and reionization, as highlighted by both observational and theoretical results showing an increased abundance of low-ionised metal species at higher redshifts. The origin of such absorbers is currently largely unknown because of the low number of galaxy counterparts detected, suggesting that they might be surrounded by low-mass faint sources below the current detection threshold. We use the THESAN-ZOOM radiation hydrodynamic simulations to investigate the connection between properties of neutral oxygen (OI) absorbers and galaxies across redshift $z = 5 - 8$. We find that the virialised gas in haloes becomes progressively ionised with cosmic time, leading to a decrease of $\approx 0.2$ in the covering fraction of neutral oxygen, while the total oxygen covering fraction remains constant. Comparing the OI line density obtained from our covering fractions with the trend suggested by blind quasar observations, we determine that the observable absorbers ($N_{\rm OI} \gtrsim 10^{13}\,\text{cm}^{-2}$) are not confined to haloes: at $z \geq 5$ the majority ($\gtrsim 60\%$) arise beyond $R_{\rm{vir}}$, consistent with recent JWST results. Close to OI absorbers, low-mass galaxies ($M_\star \leq 10^8\,\rm{M}_\odot$) are more commonly found, while, depending on the simulated environment, we do not exclude the possibility of nearby more massive star-forming sources ($\geq 5\,\text{M}_\odot\,\text{yr}^{-1}$) similar to those suggested by the latest ALMA observations. These results establish OI absorbers as sensitive tracers of the evolving ionisation structure around faint galaxies to be probed by forthcoming deep spectroscopic surveys.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2025

The THESAN project: Lyman-alpha intensity mapping of cosmic reionization

Line Intensity Mapping (LIM) has garnered attention as a powerful cosmological probe, with next-generation instruments such as SPHEREx preparing to map the evolution of large-scale structure during the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). Lyman-alpha emission in the EoR is strongly shaped by resonant absorption from neutral hydrogen in the diffuse intergalactic medium (IGM), which transforms galactic sources into a low surface-brightness background. In this work, we leverage the state-of-the-art THESAN cosmological simulations to produce high-resolution theoretical predictions for future Lyman-alpha LIM studies, constructing continuous light cones for line-of-sight cosmological integrations. We assess the contributions of recombination, collisional excitation, and unresolved HII regions to the total Lyman-alpha spectral intensity. In addition, we explore the IGM in absorption at different redshifts using damping wing analysis. We produce channel maps exploring spatial fluctuations across redshift bands probe-able by LIM instruments. We find that the slope of the absorption-included Lyman-alpha fluctuation power spectrum at smaller scales (k > 10^(-2) 1/arcsec) steepens toward lower redshift, and that our emission-only Lyman-alpha power spectrum lies above the SPHEREx sensitivity, whereas the absorption-included signal is ~4 orders of magnitude lower--providing a conservative lower limit on inhomogeneity signatures and highlighting the importance of including resonant scattering in our model in the future. We also find that including outflows in a simple toy model boosts power by four orders of magnitude. We identify limitations in our analysis and propose next steps, including incorporating the effects of resonant Lyman-alpha scattering and line interlopers, as well as larger simulation volumes.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2025

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Speed Distributions

Direct detection experiments require information about the local dark matter speed distribution to produce constraints on dark matter candidates, or infer their properties in the event of a discovery. In this paper, we analyze how the uncertainty in the dark matter speed distribution near the Sun is affected by baryonic feedback, halo-to-halo variance, and halo mass. To do so, we harness the statistical power of the new DREAMS Cold Dark Matter simulation suite, which is comprised of 1024 zoom-in Milky Way-mass halos with varied initial conditions as well as cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Applying a normalizing flows emulator to these simulations, we find that the uncertainty in the local DM speed distribution is dominated by halo-to-halo variance and, to a lesser extent, uncertainty in host halo mass. Uncertainties in supernova and black hole feedback (from the IllustrisTNG model in this case) are negligible in comparison. Using the DREAMS suite, we present a state-of-the-art prediction for the DM speed distribution in the Milky Way. Although the Standard Halo Model is contained within the uncertainty of this prediction, individual galaxies may have distributions that differ from it. Lastly, we apply our DREAMS results to the XENON1T experiment and demonstrate that the astrophysical uncertainties are comparable to the experimental ones, solidifying previous results in the literature obtained with a smaller sample of simulated Milky Way-mass halos.

astro-ph.GA↗