arXiv subjects

Marko Simonović

Publications and source records attributed to Marko Simonović.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Cosmology inference with perturbative forward modeling at the field level: a comparison with joint power spectrum and bispectrum analyses

We extend field-level inference to jointly constrain the cosmological parameters $\{A,ω_{\rm cdm},H_0\}$, in both real and redshift space. Our analyses are based on mock data generated using a perturbative forward model, with noise drawn from a Gaussian distribution with a constant power spectrum. This idealized setting, where the field-level likelihood is exactly Gaussian, allows us to precisely quantify the information content in the nonlinear field on large scales. We find that field-level inference accurately recovers all cosmological parameters in both real and redshift space, with uncertainties consistent with perturbation theory expectations. We show that these error bars are comparable to those obtained from a joint power spectrum and bispectrum analysis using the same perturbative model. Finally, we perform several tests using the Gaussian field-level likelihood to fit the mock data where the true noise model is non-Gaussian, and find significant biases in the inferred cosmological parameters. These results highlight that the success of field-level inference critically depends on using the correct likelihood, which may be the primary challenge for applying this method to smaller scales even in the perturbative regime.

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arXiv2025

Equivalence of the field-level inference and conventional analyses on large scales

We study a simple setup with dark matter halos in real space, with the amplitude of the linear density field $A$ as the only free cosmological parameter. We show that Eulerian perturbation theory is adequate for describing this system on large scales, compute the leading $n$-point functions and perform a joint power spectrum, bispectrum and trispectrum analysis. Beyond the bispectrum which is crucial for breaking the degeneracy between $A$ and the linear bias, we find that addition of the trispectrum reduces the error on $A$ by only $20-30\%$. Our results for the joint analysis are in good agreement with recent field-level analyses in the same setup. This implies that the field-level inference on large scales does not get significant information from large displacements beyond those in Eulerian kernels or higher-order $n$-point functions beyond the trispectrum. We provide further evidence for this showing that the dependence of the error bars on the maximum wavenumbers used in the analysis is the same in the two approaches. Our results are in disagreement with some of the recent joint power spectrum and bispectrum analyses using likelihood-free inference based on perturbative forward modeling. We discuss a possible origin of this discrepancy and highlight the importance of resolving it in order to have the optimal results in cosmological analyses based on perturbation theory.

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arXiv2025

BOSS Constraints on Massive Particles during Inflation: The Cosmological Collider in Action

Massive particles leave imprints on primordial non-Gaussianity via couplings to the inflaton, even despite their exponential dilution during inflation: practically, the Universe acts as a Cosmological Collider. We present the first dedicated search for spin-zero particles using BOSS redshift-space galaxy power spectrum and bispectrum multipoles, as well as Planck CMB non-Gaussianity data. We demonstrate that some Cosmological Collider models are well approximated by the standard equilateral and orthogonal parametrization; assuming negligible inflaton self-interactions, this facilitates us translating Planck non-Gaussianity constraints into bounds on Collider models. Many models have signatures that are not degenerate with equilateral and orthogonal non-Gaussianity and thus require dedicated searches. Here, we constrain such models using BOSS three-dimensional redshift-space galaxy clustering data, focusing on spin-zero particles in the principal series (i.e. with mass $m\geq 3H/2$) and constraining their couplings to the inflaton at varying speed and mass, marginalizing over the unknown inflaton self-interactions. This is made possible through an improvement in Cosmological Bootstrap techniques and the combination of perturbation theory and halo occupation distribution models for galaxy clustering. Our work sets the standard for inflationary spectroscopy with cosmological observations, providing the ultimate link between physics on the largest and smallest scales.

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arXiv2024

Improving cosmological analyses of HI clustering by reducing stochastic noise

High-number-density tracers of large-scale structure, such as the HI-rich galaxies measured by 21 cm intensity mapping, have low sampling noise, making them particularly promising as cosmological probes. At large scales, this sampling noise can be subdominant to other scale-independent contributions to the power spectrum; such contributions arise from nonlinear bias, and exceed the sampling noise if at least one of the associated bias coefficients is sufficiently large. This has important consequences for cosmological constraints obtained from such tracers, since it indicates that using the power spectrum does not lead to optimal constraints even in the linear regime. In this paper, we provide a conservative estimate of the possible improvement in constraining power of a 21cm survey if one were to use an optimal analysis strategy (such as field-level analysis), where only the true sampling noise enters the error budget. We find that improvements in uncertainties on some cosmological parameters can be as large as 50%, depending on redshift, foreground cleaning efficiency, scales used in the analysis, and instrumental noise. One byproduct of our work is measurements of bias parameters and stochasticity for neutral hydrogen in the IllustrisTNG simulation over a wide range of redshifts; we provide simple fitting formulas for these measurements. Our results motivate further exploration of new optimal analysis techniques and provide important insights into the constraining power of current and future 21 cm surveys.

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arXiv2024

Cosmological Information in Perturbative Forward Modeling

We study how well perturbative forward modeling can constrain cosmological parameters compared to conventional analyses. We exploit the fact that in perturbation theory the field-level posterior can be computed analytically in the limit of small noise. In the idealized case where the only relevant parameter for the nonlinear evolution is the nonlinear scale, we argue that information content in this posterior is the same as in the $n$-point correlation functions computed at the same perturbative order. In the real universe other parameters can be important, and there are possibly enhanced effects due to nonlinear interactions of long and short wavelength fluctuations that can either degrade the signal or increase covariance matrices. We identify several different parameters that control these enhancements and show that for some shapes of the linear power spectrum they can be large. This leads to degradation of constraints in the standard analyses, even though the effects are not dramatic for a $Λ$CDM-like cosmology. The aforementioned long-short couplings do not affect the field-level inference which remains optimal. Finally, we show how in these examples calculation of the perturbative posterior motivates new estimators that are easier to implement in practice than the full forward modelling but lead to nearly optimal constraints on cosmological parameters.

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arXiv2023

Modeling HI at the field level

We use an analytical forward model based on perturbation theory to predict the neutral hydrogen (HI) overdensity maps at low redshifts. We investigate its performance by comparing it directly at the field level to the simulated HI from the IllustrisTNG simulation TNG300-1 ($L=205\ h^{-1}$ Mpc), in both real and redshift space. We demonstrate that HI is a biased tracer of the underlying matter field and find that the cubic bias model describes the simulated HI power spectrum to within 1% up to $k=0.4 \;(0.3) \,h\,{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$ in real (redshift) space at redshifts $z=0,1$. Looking at counts in cells, we find an excellent agreement between the theory and simulations for cells as small as 5 $h^{-1}$ Mpc. These results are in line with expectations from perturbation theory and they imply that a perturbative description of the HI field is sufficiently accurate given the characteristics of upcoming 21cm intensity mapping surveys. Additionally, we study the statistical properties of the model error - the difference between the truth and the model. We show that on large scales this error is nearly Gaussian and that it has a flat power spectrum, with amplitude significantly lower than the standard noise inferred from the HI power spectrum. We explain the origin of this discrepancy, discuss its implications for the HI power spectrum Fisher matrix forecasts and argue that it motivates the HI field-level cosmological inference. On small scales in redshift space we use the difference between the model and the truth as a proxy for the Fingers-of-God effect. This allows us to estimate the nonlinear velocity dispersion of HI and show that it is smaller than for the typical spectroscopic galaxy samples at the same redshift. Finally, we provide a simple prescription based on the perturbative forward model which can be used to efficiently generate accurate HI mock data, in real and redshift space.

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arXiv2023

Cosmology with the Galaxy Bispectrum Multipoles: Optimal Estimation and Application to BOSS Data

We present a framework for self-consistent cosmological analyses of the full-shape anisotropic bispectrum, including the quadrupole $(\ell=2)$ and hexadecapole $(\ell=4)$ moments. This features a novel window-free algorithm for extracting the latter quantities from data, derived using a maximum-likelihood prescription. Furthermore, we introduce a theoretical model for the bispectrum multipoles (which does not introduce new free parameters), and test both aspects of the pipeline on several high-fidelity mocks, including the PT Challenge suite of gigantic cumulative volume. This establishes that the systematic error is significantly below the statistical threshold, both for the measurement and modeling. As a realistic example, we extract the large-scale bispectrum multipoles from BOSS DR12 and analyze them in combination with the power spectrum data. Assuming a minimal $Λ$CDM model, with a BBN prior on the baryon density and a \textit{Planck} prior on $n_s$, we can extract the remaining cosmological parameters directly from the clustering data. The inclusion of the unwindowed higher-order $(\ell>0)$ large-scale bispectrum multipoles is found to moderately improve one-dimensional cosmological parameter posteriors (at the $5\%-10\%$ level), though these multipoles are detected only in three out of four BOSS data segments at $\approx 5σ$. Combining information from the power spectrum and bispectrum multipoles, the real space power spectrum, and the post-reconstructed BAO data, we find $H_0 = 68.2\pm 0.8~\mathrm{km}\,\mathrm{s}^{-1}\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$, $Ω_m =0.33\pm 0.01$ and $σ_8 = 0.736\pm 0.033$ (the tightest yet found in perturbative full-shape analyses). Our estimate of the growth parameter $S_8=0.77\pm 0.04$ agrees with both weak lensing and CMB results.

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arXiv2022

Comments on the mass sheet degeneracy in cosmography analyses

We make a number of comments regarding modeling degeneracies in strong lensing measurements of the Hubble parameter $H_0$. The first point concerns the impact of weak lensing associated with different segments of the line of sight. We show that external convergence terms associated with the lens-source and observer-lens segments need to be included in cosmographic modeling, in addition to the usual observer-source term, to avoid systematic bias in the inferred value of $H_0$. Specifically, we show how an incomplete account of some line of sight terms biases stellar kinematics as well as ray tracing simulation methods to alleviate the mass sheet degeneracy. The second point concerns the use of imaging data for multiple strongly-lensed sources in a given system. We show that the mass sheet degeneracy is not fully resolved by the availability of multiple sources: some degeneracy remains because of differential external convergence between the different sources. Similarly, differential external convergence also complicates the use of multiple sources in addressing the approximate mass sheet degeneracy associated with a local ("internal") core component in lens galaxies. This internal-external degeneracy is amplified by the non-monotonicity of the angular diameter distance as a function of redshift. For a rough assessment of the weak lensing effects, we provide estimates of external convergence using the nonlinear matter power spectrum, paying attention to non-equal time correlators.

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arXiv2022

Cosmology with the Redshift-Space Galaxy Bispectrum Monopole at One-Loop Order

We study the cosmological information content of the redshift-space galaxy bispectrum monopole at one-loop order in perturbation theory. We incorporate all effects necessary for comparison to data: fourth-order galaxy bias, infrared resummation (accounting for the non-linear evolution of baryon acoustic oscillations), ultraviolet counterterms, non-linear redshift-space distortions, stochastic contributions, projection, and binning effects. The model is implemented using FFTLog, and validated with the PT Challenge suite of $N$-body simulations, whose large volume allows for high-precision tests. Focusing on the mass fluctuation amplitude, $σ_8$, and galaxy bias parameters, we find that including one-loop corrections allow us to significantly extend the range of scales over which the bispectrum can be modeled, and greatly tightens constraints on bias parameters. However, this does not lead to noticeable improvements in the $σ_8$ errorbar due to the necessary marginalization over a large number of nuisance parameters with conservative priors. Analyzing a BOSS-volume likelihood, we find that the addition of the one-loop bispectrum may lead to improvements on primordial non-Gaussianity constraints by $\lesssim 30\%$ and on $σ_8$ by $\approx 10\%$, though we caution that this requires pushing the analysis to short scales where the galaxy bias parameters may not be correctly recovered; this may lead to biases in the recovered parameter values. We conclude that restrictive priors from simulations or higher-order statistics such as the bispectrum multipoles will be needed in order to realize the full information content of the galaxy bispectrum.

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arXiv2022

Constraints on Multi-Field Inflation from the BOSS Galaxy Survey

We use redshift-space galaxy clustering data from the BOSS survey to constrain local primordial non-Gaussianity (LPNG). This is of particular importance due to the consistency relations, which imply that a detection of LPNG would rule out all single-field inflationary models. Our constraints are based on the consistently analyzed redshift-space galaxy power spectra and bispectra, extracted from the public BOSS data with optimal window-free estimators. We use a complete perturbation theory model including all one-loop power spectrum corrections generated by LPNG. Our constraint on the amplitude of the local non-Gaussian shape is $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm local}=-33\pm 28$ at 68\%\,CL, yielding no evidence for primordial non-Gaussianity. The addition of the bispectrum tightens the $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm local}$ constraints from BOSS by $20\%$, and allows breaking of degeneracies with non-Gaussian galaxy bias. These results set the stage for the analysis of future surveys, whose larger volumes will yield significantly tighter constraints on LPNG.

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arXiv2022

Snowmass White Paper: Effective Field Theories in Cosmology

Small fluctuations around homogeneous and isotropic expanding backgrounds are the main object of study in cosmology. Their origin and evolution is sensitive to the physical processes that happen during inflation and in the late Universe. As such, they hold the key to answering many of the major open questions in cosmology. Given a large separation of relevant scales in many examples of interest, the most natural description of these fluctuations is formulated in terms of effective field theories. This was the main avenue for many of the important modern developments in theoretical cosmology, which provided a unifying framework for a plethora of cosmological models and made a clear connection between the fundamental cosmological parameters and observables. In this review we summarize these results in the context of effective field theories of inflation, large-scale structure, and dark energy.

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arXiv2022

Cosmological constraints without fingers of God

Non-linear redshift-space distortions ("fingers of God") are challenging to model analytically, a fact that limits the applicability of perturbation theory in redshift space as compared to real space. We show how this problem can be mitigated using a new observable, $Q_0$, which can be easily estimated from the redshift space clustering data and is approximately equal to the real space power spectrum. The new statistic does not suffer from fingers of God and can be accurately described with perturbation theory down to $k_{\rm max}\simeq 0.4~h~\text{Mpc}^{-1}$. It can be straightforwardly included in the likelihood at negligible additional computational cost, and yields noticeable improvements on cosmological parameters compared to standard power spectrum multipole analyses. Using both simulations and observational data from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey, we show that improvements vary from $10\%$ to $100\%$ depending on the cosmological parameter considered, the galaxy sample and the survey volume.

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arXiv2022

Constraints on Single-Field Inflation from the BOSS Galaxy Survey

Non-local primordial non-Gaussianity (NLPNG) is a smoking gun of interactions in single-field inflationary models, and can be written as a combination of the equilateral and orthogonal templates. We present the first constraints on these from the redshift-space galaxy power spectra and bispectra of the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) data. These are the first such measurements independent of the cosmic microwave background fluctuations. We perform a consistent analysis that includes all necessary nonlinear corrections generated by NLPNG, and vary all relevant cosmological and nuisance parameters in a global fit to the data. Our conservative analysis yields joint limits on the amplitudes of the equilateral and orthogonal shapes, $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm equil}=940\pm 600$, $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm ortho}= -170\pm 170$ (both at 68\% CL). These can be used to derive constraints on coefficients of the effective single-field inflationary Lagrangian; in particular, we find that the sound speed of inflaton fluctuations has the bound $c_s\geq 0.013$ at 95\% CL. Fixing the quadratic galaxy bias and cosmological parameters, the constraints can be tightened to $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm equil}=260\pm 300$, $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm ortho}= -23\pm 120$ (68\% CL).

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arXiv2021

Precision analysis of the redshift-space galaxy bispectrum

We study the information content of the angle-averaged (monopole) redshift space galaxy bispectrum. The main novelty of our approach is the use of a systematic tree-level perturbation theory model that includes galaxy bias, IR resummation, and also accounts for nonlinear redshift space distortions, binning, and projection effects. We analyze data from the PT challenge simulations, whose cumulative volume of 566 $h^{-3}$Gpc$^3$ allows for a precise comparison to theoretical predictions. Fitting the power spectrum and bispectrum of our simulated data, and varying all necessary cosmological and nuisance parameters in a consistent Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis, we find that our tree-level bispectrum model is valid up to $k_{\max}=0.08~h{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$ (at $z=0.61$). We also find that inclusion of the bispectrum monopole improves constraints on cosmological parameters by $(5-15)\%$ relative to the power spectrum. The improvement is more significant for the quadratic bias parameters of our simulated galaxies, which we also show to deviate from biases of the host dark matter halos at the $\sim 3σ$ level. Finally, we adjust the covariance and scale cuts to match the volume of the BOSS survey, and estimate that within the minimal $Λ$CDM model the bispectrum data can tighten the constraint on the mass fluctuation amplitude $σ_8$ by roughly $10\%$.

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arXiv2021

Mitigating baryonic effects with a theoretical error covariance

One of the primary sources of uncertainties in modeling the cosmic-shear power spectrum on small scales is the effect of baryonic physics. Accurate cosmology for Stage-IV surveys requires knowledge of the matter power spectrum deep in the nonlinear regime at the percent level. Therefore, it is important to develop reliable mitigation techniques to take into account baryonic uncertainties if information from small scales is to be considered in the cosmological analysis. In this work, we develop a new mitigation method for dealing with baryonic physics for the case of the shear angular power spectrum. The method is based on an extended covariance matrix that incorporates baryonic uncertainties informed by hydrodynamical simulations. We use the results from 13 hydrodynamical simulations and the residual errors arising from a fit to a $Λ$CDM model using the extended halo model code {\tt HMCode} to account for baryonic physics. These residual errors are used to model a so-called theoretical error covariance matrix that is added to the original covariance matrix. In order to assess the performance of the method, we use the 2D tomographic shear from four hydrodynamical simulations that have different extremes of baryonic parameters as mock data and run a likelihood analysis comparing the residual bias on $Ω_m$ and $σ_8$ of our method and the HMCode for an LSST-like survey. We use different modelling of the theoretical error covariance matrix to test the robustness of the method. We show that it is possible to reduce the bias in the determination of the tested cosmological parameters at the price of a modest decrease in the precision.

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arXiv2021

Optimizing large-scale structure data analysis with the theoretical error likelihood

An important aspect of large-scale structure data analysis is the presence of non-negligible theoretical uncertainties, which become increasingly important on small scales. We show how to incorporate these uncertainties in realistic power spectrum likelihoods by an appropriate change of the fitting model and the covariance matrix. The inclusion of the theoretical error has several advantages over the standard practice of using the sharp momentum cut $k_{\rm max}$. First, the theoretical error covariance gradually suppresses the information from the short scales as the employed theoretical model becomes less reliable. This allows one to avoid laborious measurements of $k_{\rm max}$, which is an essential part of the standard methods. Second, the theoretical error likelihood gives unbiased constrains with reliable error bars that are not artificially shrunk due to over-fitting. In realistic settings, the theoretical error likelihood yields essentially the same parameter constraints as the standard analysis with an appropriately selected $k_{\rm max}$, thereby effectively optimizing the choice of $k_{\rm max}$. We demonstrate these points using the large-volume N-body data for the clustering of matter and galaxies in real and redshift space. In passing, we validate the effective field theory description of the redshift space distortions and show that the use of the one-parameter phenomenological Gaussian damping model for fingers-of-God causes significant biases in parameter recovery.

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arXiv2020

Blinded challenge for precision cosmology with large-scale structure: results from effective field theory for the redshift-space galaxy power spectrum

An accurate theoretical template for the galaxy power spectrum is a key for the success of ongoing and future spectroscopic surveys. We examine to what extent the Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structure is able to provide such a template and correctly estimate cosmological parameters. To that end, we initiate a blinded challenge to infer cosmological parameters from the redshift-space power spectrum of high-resolution mock catalogs mimicking the BOSS galaxy sample but covering a hundred times larger cumulative volume. This gigantic simulation volume allows us to separate systematic bias due to theoretical modeling from the statistical error due to sample variance. The challenge task was to measure three unknown input parameters used in the simulation: the Hubble constant, the matter density fraction, and the clustering amplitude. We present analyses done by two independent teams, who have fitted the mock simulation data generated by yet another independent group. This allows us to avoid any confirmation bias by analyzers and pin down possible tuning of the specific EFT implementations. Both independent teams have recovered the true values of the input parameters within sub-percent statistical errors corresponding to the total simulation volume.

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arXiv2020

Modeling Galaxies in Redshift Space at the Field Level

We develop an analytical forward model based on perturbation theory to predict the redshift-space galaxy overdensity at the field level given a realization of the initial conditions. We find that the residual noise between the model and simulated galaxy density has a power spectrum that is white on large scales, with size comparable to the shot noise. In the mildly nonlinear regime, we see a $k^2μ^2$ correction to the noise power spectrum, corresponding to larger noise along the line of sight and on smaller scales. The parametric form of this correction has been predicted on theoretical grounds before, and our simulations provide important confirmation of its presence. We have also modeled the galaxy velocity at the field-level and compared it against simulated galaxy velocities, finding that about $10\%$ of the galaxies are responsible for half of the rms velocity residual for our simulated galaxy sample.

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