arXiv subjects

Markus Michael Rau

Publications and source records attributed to Markus Michael Rau.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Reducing Model Error Using Optimised Galaxy Selection: Weak Lensing Cluster Mass Estimation

Galaxy clusters are one of the most powerful probes to study extensions of General Relativity and the Standard Cosmological Model. Upcoming surveys like the Vera Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time are expected to revolutionise the field, by enabling the analysis of cluster samples of unprecedented size and quality. To reach this era of high-precision cluster cosmology, the mitigation of sources of systematic error is crucial. A particularly important challenge is bias in cluster mass measurements induced by the mismodelling of photometric redshift estimates of source galaxies. This work proposes a method to optimise the source sample selection in cluster weak lensing analyses drawn from wide-field survey lensing catalogs to reduce the bias on reconstructed cluster masses. We use a combinatorial optimisation scheme and methods from variational inference to select galaxies in latent space to produce a probabilistic galaxy source sample catalog for highly accurate cluster mass estimation. We show that our method reduces the critical surface mass density $Σ_{\rm crit}$ relative modelling bias on the 60-70% level, while maintaining up to 90\% of galaxies. We highlight that our methodology has applications beyond cluster mass estimation as an approach to jointly combine galaxy selection and model inference under sources of systematics.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Meta-learning for cosmological emulation: Rapid adaptation to new lensing kernels

Theoretical computation of cosmological observables is an intensive process, restricting the speed at which cosmological data can be analysed and cosmological models constrained, and therefore limiting research access to those with high performance computing infrastructure. Whilst the use of machine learning to emulate these computations has been studied, most existing emulators are specialised and not suitable for emulating a wide range of observables with changing physical models. Here, we investigate the Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning algorithm (MAML) for training a cosmological emulator. MAML attempts to train a set of network parameters for rapid fine-tuning to new tasks within some distribution of tasks. Specifically, we consider a simple case where the galaxy sample changes, resulting in a different redshift distribution and lensing kernel. Using MAML, we train a cosmic-shear angular power spectrum emulator for rapid adaptation to new redshift distributions with only $O(100)$ fine-tuning samples, whilst not requiring any parametrisation of the redshift distributions. We compare the performance of the MAML emulator to two standard emulators, one pre-trained on a single redshift distribution and the other with no pre-training, both in terms of accuracy on test data, and the constraints produced when using the emulators for cosmological inference. We observe that within an MCMC analysis, the MAML emulator is able to better reproduce the fully-theoretical posterior, achieving a Battacharrya distance from the fully-theoretical posterior in the $S_8$ -- $Ω_m$ plane of 0.008, compared to 0.038 from the single-task pre-trained emulator and 0.243 for the emulator with no pre-training.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Taking the Weight Off: Mitigating Parameter Bias from Catastrophic Outliers in 3$\times$2pt Analysis

Stage IV cosmological surveys will map the universe with unprecedented precision, reducing statistical uncertainties to levels where unmodelled systematics can significantly bias inference. In particular, photometric redshift (photo-z) errors and intrinsic alignments (IA) must be robustly accounted for to ensure accurate inference of cosmological parameters. The increasing depth of Stage IV surveys exacerbates these challenges by producing low signal-to-noise galaxy populations prone to inaccurate photo-z measurements. Catastrophically misidentified redshifts are especially problematic for 3$\times$2pt inferences that combine weak lensing and galaxy clustering information. We demonstrate that even modest outlier fractions (e.g. 5%) can lead to substantial biases in cosmological parameter estimates: up to 1.8$σ$ in $Ω_M$ and $σ_8$, and over 8$σ$ in the IA redshift evolution parameter $η$. To address this, we introduce a flexible weighting scheme at the likelihood level that down-weights the most contamination-sensitive elements of the data vector during inference. This method mitigates biases without inflating the parameter space, reducing cosmological parameter biases to below 1$σ$ without substantially degrading constraining power. Our approach offers a practical solution for future analyses, enabling robust cosmological inference in the presence of catastrophic redshift errors.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Forecasting the Impact of Source Galaxy Photometric Redshift Uncertainties on the LSST $3\times2$pt Analysis

Photometric redshifts of the source galaxies are a key source of systematic uncertainty in the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST)'s galaxy clustering and weak lensing analysis, i.e., the $3\times 2$pt analysis. This paper introduces a Fisher forecast code FisherA2Z for the LSST Year 10 (Y10) $3 \times 2$pt and cosmic shear analyses, utilizing a 15-parameter redshift distribution model, with one redshift bias, variance, and outlier rate per tomographic bin. FisherA2Z employs the Core Cosmology Library CCL to compute the large-scale structure power spectrum and incorporates a four-parameter nonlinear alignment model for intrinsic alignments. We evaluate the impact of marginalizing over redshift distribution parameters on weak lensing, forecast biases in cosmological parameters due to redshift errors, and assess cosmological parameter sensitivity to redshift systematic parameters using decision trees. The sensitivity study reveals that for LSST $3\times2$pt analysis, $S_8$ is most sensitive to the mean redshift of the fourth out of the five source tomographic bins, while other cosmological parameters possess different sensitivities. Additionally, we provide cosmological analysis forecasts based on different scenarios of spectroscopic training datasets. We find that the figures-of-merit for the cosmological results increase with the number of spectroscopic training galaxies, and with the completeness of the training set above $z=1.6$, assuming the redshift information comes solely from the training set galaxies without other external constraints.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Photometric redshifts and intrinsic alignments: degeneracies and biases in 3$\times$2pt analysis

We present a systematic study of cosmological parameter bias in weak lensing and large-scale structure analyses for upcoming imaging surveys induced by the interplay of intrinsic alignments (IA) and photometric redshift (photo-z) model mis-specification error. We first examine the degeneracies between the parameters of the Tidal Alignment - Tidal Torquing (TATT) model for IA and of a photo-z model including a mean shift ($Δ\bar{z}$) and variance ($σ_{z}$) for each tomographic bin of lenses and sources, under a variety of underlying true IA behaviors. We identify strong degeneracies between: (1) the redshift scaling of the tidal alignment amplitude and the mean shift and variances of source bins, (2) the redshift scaling of the tidal torquing amplitude and the variance of the lowest-$z$ source bin, and (3) the IA source density weighting and the mean shift and variance of several source bins. We then use this information to guide our exploration of the level of cosmological parameter bias which can be induced given incorrect modelling of IA, photo-z, or both. We find that marginalizing over all the parameters of TATT is generally sufficient to preclude cosmological parameter bias in the scenarios we consider. However, this does not necessarily mean that IA and photo-z parameters are themselves unbiased, nor does it mean that the best-fit model is a good fit to the data. We also find scenarios where the inferred parameters produce $χ^2_{\rm DOF}$ values indicative of a good fit but cosmological parameter bias is significant, particularly when the IA source density weighting parameter is not marginalized over.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Weak Lensing Tomographic Redshift Distribution Inference for the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program three-year shape catalogue

We present posterior sample redshift distributions for the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program Weak Lensing three-year (HSC Y3) analysis. Using the galaxies' photometry and spatial cross-correlations, we conduct a combined Bayesian Hierarchical Inference of the sample redshift distributions. The spatial cross-correlations are derived using a subsample of Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) with accurate redshift information available up to a photometric redshift of $z < 1.2$. We derive the photometry-based constraints using a combination of two empirical techniques calibrated on spectroscopic- and multiband photometric data that covers a spatial subset of the shear catalog. The limited spatial coverage induces a cosmic variance error budget that we include in the inference. Our cross-correlation analysis models the photometric redshift error of the LRGs to correct for systematic biases and statistical uncertainties. We demonstrate consistency between the sample redshift distributions derived using the spatial cross-correlations, the photometry, and the posterior of the combined analysis. Based on this assessment, we recommend conservative priors for sample redshift distributions of tomographic bins used in the three-year cosmological Weak Lensing analyses.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 3 Results: Measurements of Clustering of SDSS-BOSS Galaxies, Galaxy-Galaxy Lensing and Cosmic Shear

We use the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) BOSS galaxies and their overlap with approximately 416 sq. degree of deep $grizy$-band imaging from the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam Survey (HSC). We measure three two-point correlations that form the basis of the cosmological inference presented in our companion papers, Miyatake et al. and Sugiyama et al. We use three approximately volume limited subsamples of spectroscopic galaxies by their $i$-band magnitude from the SDSS-BOSS: LOWZ (0.1<z<0.35), CMASS1 (0.43<z<0.55) and CMASS2 (0.55<z<0.7), respectively. We present high signal-to-noise ratio measurements of the projected correlation functions of these galaxies, which is expected to be proportional to the matter correlation function times the bias of galaxies on large scales. In order to break the degeneracy between the amplitude of the matter correlation and the bias of these galaxies, we use the distortions of the shapes of galaxies in HSC due to weak gravitational lensing, to measure the galaxy-galaxy lensing signal, which probes the galaxy-matter cross-correlation of the SDSS-BOSS galaxies. We also measure the cosmic shear correlation functions from HSC galaxies which is related to the projected matter correlation function. We demonstrate the robustness of our measurements with a variety of systematic tests. Our use of a single sample of HSC source galaxies is crucial to calibrate any residual systematic biases in the inferred redshifts of our galaxies. We also describe the construction of a suite of mocks: i) spectroscopic galaxy catalogs which obey the clustering and abundance of each of the three SDSS-BOSS subsamples, and ii) galaxy shape catalogs which obey the footprint of the HSC survey and have been appropriately sheared by the large-scale structure expected in a $Λ$-CDM model. We use these mock catalogs to compute the covariance of each of our observables.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Optical Cluster Cosmology with SDSS redMaPPer clusters and HSC-Y3 lensing measurements

We present cosmology results obtained from a blind joint analysis of the abundance, projected clustering, and weak lensing of galaxy clusters measured from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) redMaPPer cluster catalog and the Hyper-Suprime Cam (HSC) Year3 shape catalog. We present a full-forward model for the cluster observables, which includes empirical modeling for the anisotropic boosts on the lensing and clustering signals of optical clusters. We validate our analysis via mock cluster catalogs which include observational systematics, such as the projection effect and the effect of baryonic feedback, and find that our analysis can robustly constrain cosmological parameters in an unbiased manner without any informative priors on our model parameters. The joint analysis of our observables in the context of the flat $Λ$CDM model results in cosmological constraints for $S_8\equiv σ_8 \sqrt{Ω_{\rm m} / 0.3}=0.816^{+0.041}_{-0.039}$. Our result is consistent with the $S_8$ inference from other cosmic microwave background- and large scale structure-based cosmology analyses, including the result from the \emph{Planck} 2018 primary CMB analysis.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Photometric Redshift Uncertainties in Weak Gravitational Lensing Shear Analysis: Models and Marginalization

Recovering credible cosmological parameter constraints in a weak lensing shear analysis requires an accurate model that can be used to marginalize over nuisance parameters describing potential sources of systematic uncertainty, such as the uncertainties on the sample redshift distribution $n(z)$. Due to the challenge of running Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) in the high dimensional parameter spaces in which the $n(z)$ uncertainties may be parameterized, it is common practice to simplify the $n(z)$ parameterization or combine MCMC chains that each have a fixed $n(z)$ resampled from the $n(z)$ uncertainties. In this work, we propose a statistically-principled Bayesian resampling approach for marginalizing over the $n(z)$ uncertainty using multiple MCMC chains. We self-consistently compare the new method to existing ones from the literature in the context of a forecasted cosmic shear analysis for the HSC three-year shape catalog, and find that these methods recover similar cosmological parameter constraints, implying that using the most computationally efficient of the approaches is appropriate. However, we find that for datasets with the constraining power of the full HSC survey dataset (and, by implication, those upcoming surveys with even tighter constraints), the choice of method for marginalizing over $n(z)$ uncertainty among the several methods from the literature may significantly impact the statistical uncertainties on cosmological parameters, and a careful model selection is needed to ensure credible parameter intervals.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2022

Photometric Redshifts from SDSS Images with an Interpretable Deep Capsule Network

Studies of cosmology, galaxy evolution, and astronomical transients with current and next-generation wide-field imaging surveys like the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) are all critically dependent on estimates of photometric redshifts. Capsule networks are a new type of neural network architecture that is better suited for identifying morphological features of the input images than traditional convolutional neural networks. We use a deep capsule network trained on $ugriz$ images, spectroscopic redshifts, and Galaxy Zoo spiral/elliptical classifications of $\sim$400,000 Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) galaxies to do photometric redshift estimation. We achieve a photometric redshift prediction accuracy and a fraction of catastrophic outliers that are comparable to or better than current methods for SDSS main galaxy sample-like data sets ($r\leq17.8$ and $z_{\mathrm{spec}}\leq0.4$) while requiring less data and fewer trainable parameters. Furthermore, the decision-making of our capsule network is much more easily interpretable as capsules act as a low-dimensional encoding of the image. When the capsules are projected on a 2-dimensional manifold, they form a single redshift sequence with the fraction of spirals in a region exhibiting a gradient roughly perpendicular to the redshift sequence. We perturb encodings of real galaxy images in this low-dimensional space to create synthetic galaxy images that demonstrate the image properties (e.g., size, orientation, and surface brightness) encoded by each dimension. We also measure correlations between galaxy properties (e.g., magnitudes, colours, and stellar mass) and each capsule dimension. We publicly release our code, estimated redshifts, and additional catalogues at https://biprateep.github.io/encapZulate-1 .

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2022

Galaxy Distribution Incompleteness Testing Using Self-Organizing Maps

The calibration of redshift distributions for photometric samples using spectroscopic surveys is plagued by the difficulty in modelling the selection functions of spectroscopic surveys. In this work, we analyse how these selection functions impact redshift inference and quantify the induced biases using local calibration tests in photometry space. The study is carried out using simulations that mimic the radial selection function of a spectroscopic survey and an accompanying mock catalog of a photometric galaxy survey catalog. We use a self-organizing map to partition the photometry space and perform a local $χ^2$ test to study the probability calibration of redshift inferences that use the spectroscopic data for calibration. The goal of this work is to investigate the effect of uncorrected selection functions in the calibration data on redshift prediction accuracy and critically discuss mitigation methods. In particular we test culling-based bias correction techniques, that aim to remove redshift calibration biases by identifying regions in photometry with few spectroscopic calibration data, and propose avenues for future research. We found that removing regions in color-magnitude space that are underpopulated with spectroscopic calibration data does not remove all biases in redshift inference induced by the selection function.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2022

The Dynamical Mass of the Coma Cluster from Deep Learning

In 1933, Fritz Zwicky's famous investigations of the mass of the Coma cluster led him to infer the existence of dark matter \cite{1933AcHPh...6..110Z}. His fundamental discoveries have proven to be foundational to modern cosmology; as we now know such dark matter makes up 85\% of the matter and 25\% of the mass-energy content in the universe. Galaxy clusters like Coma are massive, complex systems of dark matter in addition to hot ionized gas and thousands of galaxies, and serve as excellent probes of the dark matter distribution. However, empirical studies show that the total mass of such systems remains elusive and difficult to precisely constrain. Here, we present new estimates for the dynamical mass of the Coma cluster based on Bayesian deep learning methodologies developed in recent years. Using our novel data-driven approach, we predict Coma's $\mthc$ mass to be $10^{15.10 \pm 0.15}\ \hmsun$ within a radius of $1.78 \pm 0.03\ h^{-1}\mathrm{Mpc}$ of its center. We show that our predictions are rigorous across multiple training datasets and statistically consistent with historical estimates of Coma's mass. This measurement reinforces our understanding of the dynamical state of the Coma cluster and advances rigorous analyses and verification methods for empirical applications of machine learning in astronomy.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2022

Re-calibrating Photometric Redshift Probability Distributions Using Feature-space Regression

Many astrophysical analyses depend on estimates of redshifts (a proxy for distance) determined from photometric (i.e., imaging) data alone. Inaccurate estimates of photometric redshift uncertainties can result in large systematic errors. However, probability distribution outputs from many photometric redshift methods do not follow the frequentist definition of a Probability Density Function (PDF) for redshift -- i.e., the fraction of times the true redshift falls between two limits $z_{1}$ and $z_{2}$ should be equal to the integral of the PDF between these limits. Previous works have used the global distribution of Probability Integral Transform (PIT) values to re-calibrate PDFs, but offsetting inaccuracies in different regions of feature space can conspire to limit the efficacy of the method. We leverage a recently developed regression technique that characterizes the local PIT distribution at any location in feature space to perform a local re-calibration of photometric redshift PDFs. Though we focus on an example from astrophysics, our method can produce PDFs which are calibrated at all locations in feature space for any use case.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2021

Probabilistic model for dynamic galaxy decomposition

In the era of precision cosmology and ever-improving cosmological simulations, a better understanding of different galaxy components such as bulges and discs will give us new insight into galactic formation and evolution. Based on the fact that the stellar populations of the constituent components of galaxies differ by their dynamical properties, we develop two simple models for galaxy decomposition using the IllustrisTNG cosmological hydrodynamical simulation. The first model uses a single dynamical parameter and can distinguish 4 components: thin disc, thick disc, counter-rotating disc and bulge. The second model uses one more dynamical parameter, was defined in a probabilistic manner, and distinguishes two components: bulge and disc. The number fraction of disc-dominated galaxies at a given stellar mass obtained by our models agrees well with observations for masses exceeding $ \log_{10}(M_*/M_\odot)=10$. Sérsic indices and half-mass radii for the bulge components agree well with those for real galaxies. The mode of the distribution of Sérsic indices for the disc components is at the expected value of $n=1$. However, disc half-mass radii are smaller than those for real galaxies, in accordance with previous findings that the IllustrisTNG simulation produces undersized discs.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2021

Approximate Bayesian Uncertainties on Deep Learning Dynamical Mass Estimates of Galaxy Clusters

We study methods for reconstructing Bayesian uncertainties on dynamical mass estimates of galaxy clusters using convolutional neural networks (CNNs). We discuss the statistical background of approximate Bayesian neural networks and demonstrate how variational inference techniques can be used to perform computationally tractable posterior estimation for a variety of deep neural architectures. We explore how various model designs and statistical assumptions impact prediction accuracy and uncertainty reconstruction in the context of cluster mass estimation. We measure the quality of our model posterior recovery using a mock cluster observation catalog derived from the MultiDark simulation and UniverseMachine catalog. We show that approximate Bayesian CNNs produce highly accurate dynamical cluster mass posteriors. These model posteriors are log-normal in cluster mass and recover $68\%$ and $90\%$ confidence intervals to within $1\%$ of their measured value. We note how this rigorous modeling of dynamical mass posteriors is necessary for using cluster abundance measurements to constrain cosmological parameters.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

Fisher Matrix Stability

Fisher forecasts are a common tool in cosmology with applications ranging from survey planning to the development of new cosmological probes. While frequently adopted, they are subject to numerical instabilities that need to be carefully investigated to ensure accurate and reproducible results. This research note discusses these challenges using the example of a weak lensing data vector and proposes procedures that can help in their solution.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

The Role of Machine Learning in the Next Decade of Cosmology

In recent years, machine learning (ML) methods have remarkably improved how cosmologists can interpret data. The next decade will bring new opportunities for data-driven cosmological discovery, but will also present new challenges for adopting ML methodologies and understanding the results. ML could transform our field, but this transformation will require the astronomy community to both foster and promote interdisciplinary research endeavors.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2020

A Robust and Efficient Deep Learning Method for Dynamical Mass Measurements of Galaxy Clusters

We demonstrate the ability of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to mitigate systematics in the virial scaling relation and produce dynamical mass estimates of galaxy clusters with remarkably low bias and scatter. We present two models, CNN$_\mathrm{1D}$ and CNN$_\mathrm{2D}$, which leverage this deep learning tool to infer cluster masses from distributions of member galaxy dynamics. Our first model, CNN$_\text{1D}$, infers cluster mass directly from the distribution of member galaxy line-of-sight velocities. Our second model, CNN$_\text{2D}$, extends the input space of CNN$_\text{1D}$ to learn on the joint distribution of galaxy line-of-sight velocities and projected radial distances. We train each model as a regression over cluster mass using a labeled catalog of realistic mock cluster observations generated from the MultiDark simulation and UniverseMachine catalog. We then evaluate the performance of each model on an independent set of mock observations selected from the same simulated catalog. The CNN models produce cluster mass predictions with lognormal residuals of scatter as low as $0.132$ dex, greater than a factor of 2 improvement over the classical $M$-$σ$ power-law estimator. Furthermore, the CNN model reduces prediction scatter relative to similar machine learning approaches by up to $17\%$ while executing in drastically shorter training and evaluation times (by a factor of 30) and producing considerably more robust mass predictions (improving prediction stability under variations in galaxy sampling rate by $30\%$).

astro-ph.CO↗