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Marta Spinelli

Publications and source records attributed to Marta Spinelli.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Cosmology beyond standard sirens: cross-correlation of gravitational waves and neutral hydrogen intensity mapping

We explore the potential of cross-correlation between gravitational wave (GW) events and neutral hydrogen (HI) intensity mapping surveys to serve as an independent cosmological probe. Focusing on the ET and the SKAO, and assuming that binary black hole mergers and HI emission are biased tracers of the underlying dark matter distribution, we use their angular auto- and cross-correlation spectra to constrain cosmological parameters. We test three different GW detector networks: ET alone, both in its $\Delta$ and 2L configuration, and ET-2L together with Cosmic Explorer. We show that the cross-correlation method, by naturally mitigating tracer-specific systematics, yields robust cosmological bounds, allowing for a sub-percent ($\sim 0.5\%$) precision on the Hubble constant $H_\mathrm{0}$. Furthermore, this approach robustly constrains the cosmic expansion history throughout the post-reionization era of the Universe and, unlike conventional standard sirens, simultaneously probes the large scale distribution of matter perturbations, achieving relative uncertainties of approximately 1.3% on the total matter density $\Omega_\mathrm{m}$ and 1.6% on the late-time clustering amplitude $\sigma_8$.

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Modeling the HI-Halo Connection: Evolution, Scatter, and a Halo-based Prescription for 21-cm Mock Catalogs

The redshifted 21-cm line of neutral hydrogen (HI) is a powerful tracer of large-scale structure, and post-reionization HI intensity mapping is emerging as a competitive cosmological probe whose interpretation requires a description of how HI populates galaxies and dark matter halos. We characterize the HI--halo mass relation, its redshift evolution, and its intrinsic scatter, identifying its secondary dependences. We use the updated GAlaxy Evolution and Assembly (GAEA) semi-analytic model, applied to the Millennium-I and Millennium-II simulations, to predict the HI mass function (HIMF) and the HI--halo mass relation from the present day to redshift $z\simeq5$. At $z=0$, the model reproduces the observed HIMF and its decomposition by host-halo mass. The median HI--halo mass relation rises with halo mass, peaks near $10^{11.7}\,M_\odot$, declines as central galaxies are quenched by feedback from active galactic nuclei, and rises again where satellites dominate, approaching a single power law at high redshift. We show that the substantial scatter, of about 0.5 dex, is not random but is governed by halo assembly: at fixed mass, higher-spin, later-forming, and less-concentrated halos are systematically HI-richer, with spin together with either concentration or formation time accounting for part of this scatter and leaving an intrinsic dispersion of about 0.3 dex. We encode the median relation, these secondary trends, and the intrinsic scatter in a compact, physically motivated prescription expressed entirely in terms of quantities available in dark-matter halo catalogs. This prescription reproduces the full scatter and enables the construction of large-volume 21-cm mock catalogs for interpreting ongoing intensity-mapping measurements with SKA precursor facilities, such as MeerKAT, and for preparing for forthcoming surveys with the SKA.

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Overview: Cosmology with the SKAO

The SKA telescopes will revolutionise our ability to do cosmology at radio wavelengths, via both their own data and in synergy with other wavelengths. SKAO will be the first instrument able to conduct large-scale cosmological surveys as done in the last decades in the optical and near-infrared. This complementarity will be vital as cosmology hits the limit of systematic uncertainties. Radio cosmology surveys will have radically different systematics, allowing data combinations across surveys to calibrate systematics and increase overall constraining power. Neutral hydrogen (HI) intensity mapping surveys are now reaching maturity, as demonstrated by the progress made by the MeerKLASS survey with MeerKAT. Along with continuum galaxy surveys, they will provide detailed maps of the Universe covering large fractions of the sky, allowing us to answer questions about fundamental physics which can only be measured on the largest scales. In combination with weak lensing and HI galaxy probes, HI intensity maps will also measure the distributions of matter and velocities to give precisions tests of the $\Lambda$CDM model, including its foundational assumptions of isotropy and homogeneity. In combination with gravitational wave observations and fast radio bursts, they will also help us measure the expansion history and baryon content of the Universe. Here we provide an overview of the achievements of precursor surveys and the progress towards SKA cosmology, starting with AA* and reaching full maturity with AA4 telescopes.

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Cosmology with HI Intensity Mapping

The redshifted spectral emission from neutral hydrogen (HI) at rest wavelength 21 cm can be used as a tracer of large-scale structure and its evolution. Within the HI intensity mapping method, sufficient signal-to-noise is achieved by integrating the line emission within large voxels over a wide sky area and line of sight depth which allows access to the largest scales of the matter distribution. The resulting tomographic maps usually feature low angular and high redshift resolution. The SKAO will be able to conduct HI intensity mapping experiments observing up to 20,000 square degrees over a wide range of redshifts. For SKA-Mid, we will employ the array in a fast-scanning single-dish mode using Band 1 and 2 to access 0<z<3, mapping an enormous volume with fast survey speed, allowing for the possibility of a commensal survey producing high angular resolution maps via the on-the-fly imaging of the visibilities. For SKA-Low, we will focus on deep observations to detect the HI signal in a frequency band matching 3<z<6. In this chapter, we will give an overview of HI intensity mapping with the SKAO, including an outline of planned surveys, a discussion of observational challenges, and methodology for power spectrum methodology and forecasts. We present predictions on the constraining power on LambdaCDM cosmology from HI intensity mapping data via power spectrum, and other observables such as bi-spectrum and HI stacking. We also demonstrate the synergy power of HI intensity mapping with other cosmological surveys.

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meer21cm: an Analysis Pipeline and Comprehensive Toolkit for HI Intensity Mapping

We present meer21cm, a comprehensive python package for cosmological data analysis of single-dish HI intensity mapping surveys. This package is simple to use, with a modularised code structure designed for interactive usage. meer21cm is designed for data analysis, with particular focus on the UHF-band observation of MeerKAT Large Area Synoptic Survey (MeerKLASS). We explicitly impose meer21cm to be survey-oriented, ensuring consistent modelling of observational effects in the clustering power spectrum with the survey specifications and data analysis choices. meer21cm covers a large range of data analysis procedures post calibration, including data read-in, foreground cleaning, power spectrum estimation, mock simulation, transfer function corrections and parameter inference. It handles both meer21cm intensity maps and overlapping galaxy catalogues, allowing for multi-tracer and cross-correlation analysis between MeerKLASS and optical galaxy surveys. Tested with a simulated survey of ten $750\,$deg$^2$ sky patches in the redshift sub-band $0.6\,{<}\,z\,{<}\,0.8$, the meer21cm pipeline achieves per-cent accuracy in the power spectrum estimation for $k \in [0.02, 0.2]\,{h{\rm Mpc}^{-1}}$, with deviations $\lesssim 0.5\sigma$ between the mock and the model power spectra, where $\sigma$ is the signal variance. The meer21cm package is publicly available and easy to install, with a comprehensive documentation website at https://meer21cm.readthedocs.io

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Cosmology from HI galaxy surveys with the SKA

The 21cm line from neutral hydrogen is expected to be a ubiquitous (albeit faint) tracer of galaxies in the late Universe. With SKAO-MID, large wide-field surveys of several million HI-containing galaxies will become feasible, resulting in catalogues of sufficient size to measure large-scale structure observables such as baryon acoustic oscillations and redshift-space distortions. While optical galaxy surveys over comparable areas are generally deeper, radio surveys of this kind have a number of other advantages, such as broader sampling of the halo mass function and the possibility of measuring luminosity distances via the Tully-Fisher relation. In this chapter, we provide predictions for the galaxy number counts versus redshift that will be achievable with a wide-field HI galaxy survey on SKAO-MID, along with corresponding forecasts for cosmological observables. Given the substantial uncertainty in the HI mass function with redshift, we bracket our predictions using a handful of different modelling methods.

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Cosmology with Intensity Mapping via Statistics Beyond the Power Spectrum in the SKAO Era

The cosmological distribution of neutral hydrogen (HI) during the post-reionization era is highly non-Gaussian due to the underlying non-linear structure formation, complex galaxy biasing, and potential primordial non-Gaussianity. One needs higher-order (beyond two-point) statistics to maximally extract the non-Gaussian information out of the 21-cm intensity maps. This chapter summarizes the potential of several higher-order statistics, including voxel intensity distribution, emission line stacking, probability density functions, $\ell_1$-norm, bispectrum, and various marked statistics. Additionally, image-based morphological descriptors, such as the Largest Cluster Statistic, local dimensions, and Minkowski functionals, etc., can potentially characterize the morphology and geometry of the cosmic web encoded in the 21-cm intensity maps. This chapter presents forecasts of the detectability of these higher-order statistics in the context of the future SKAO observations. These forecasts incorporate instrumental noise, observational effects, and, in some cases, foreground removal in their analyses. With its unprecedented sensitivity, the future SKAO 21-cm observations will enable us to measure these higher-order statistics more precisely, possibly helping to break degeneracies between astrophysical and cosmological parameters, and maximizing the science outcome from these surveys.

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Cosmology with Multi-Wavelength Line Intensity Mapping Synergies in the SKAO Era

Line intensity mapping (LIM) has emerged as a powerful tool for surveying the large-scale structure of the Universe across cosmic time by measuring spatial fluctuations in the cumulative emission of spectral lines from unresolved sources or the intergalactic medium. Besides the most abundant 21-cm hyperfine line of neutral hydrogen, there are bright far-infrared fine-structure lines like [CII] 158 $\mu$m, [OIII] 88 $\mu$m, [NII] 122/205 $\mu$m, and [OI] 63 $\mu$m, as well as mid-/high-$J$ CO rotational transitions, hydrogen Ly$\alpha$ and H$\alpha$ as potential LIM probes. A key opportunity lies in combining and cross-correlating 21-cm intensity maps from SKAO with other line intensity maps, targeted by a range of ongoing and forthcoming LIM experiments that probe overlapping cosmic volumes. Cross-correlation between 21-cm maps and other line tracers mitigates uncorrelated systematics and enhances sensitivity to the underlying matter distribution, while multi-line analyses help disentangle cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Beyond cross-power spectra, higher-order and morphological statistics -- such as cross-bispectra, marked correlations, and morphological measures -- capture non-Gaussian features and the environmental dependence of structure formation. This chapter explores the synergies that can be achieved by combining SKAO observations with other line-intensity mapping experiments, demonstrating how such joint analyses can unlock new insights into galaxy evolution and cosmology.

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Methodological Frontiers in 21-cm Intensity Mapping: the Treatment of Systematics and Foreground Contamination

The distribution of neutral hydrogen (HI) in the post-reionization universe traces the cosmic large-scale structure and therefore serves as a powerful cosmological probe. An efficient way to measure its distribution over wide sky areas and redshift ranges is through single-dish intensity mapping, which exploits the autocorrelation signal of each dish in a telescope array while scanning the same sky patch. Thanks to its broad frequency coverage and technical capabilities, SKA-Mid will enable measurements of the integrated 21 cm emission from HI up to redshift $z\sim3$, making single-dish intensity mapping a key observable for probing dark matter and dark energy. Isolating the faint 21 cm cosmological signal without introducing biases is, however, challenging. The 21 cm signal is several orders of magnitude weaker than the astrophysical foregrounds, and its analysis is further affected by instrumental systematics. Overcoming these difficulties requires detailed modelling together with continuous improvements and innovations in data-analysis techniques. Over the past decade, the international community has developed and tested new methods to address current observational challenges and prepare for forthcoming SKA-Mid observations. This chapter reviews recent advances in map-making and component-separation techniques, with particular emphasis on telescope-specific systematics such as beam response and correlated noise. We focus on results obtained in controlled simulation environments, providing a valuable framework for assessing the strengths and limitations of different approaches. Developing robust algorithms capable of accurately handling instrumental effects and sky-model uncertainties is a crucial step toward fully exploiting the cosmological potential of HI intensity-mapping surveys in the SKA Observatory era.

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Single-dish HI Intensity Mapping with the SKAO: Precursor Progress with MeerKAT's Large Area Synoptic Survey (MeerKLASS)

Using the SKAO to map the intensity of neutral hydrogen's 21cm emission line will be a golden opportunity to constrain models of cosmology. To access the largest cosmological scales, wide-sky surveys should ideally reach thousands of square degrees, requiring SKA-Mid's dishes to scan the sky in auto-correlation mode, so-called single-dish observations. In this chapter, we overview the latest results from MeerKAT's Large Area Synoptic Survey (MeerKLASS), which has been pioneering this single-dish observing strategy, and motivating its continuation with the SKA-Mid AA4 deployment. MeerKLASS, operating on the same Karoo site where the SKA-Mid is being built, has now achieved multiple cosmological detections from single-dish observations, including high-significance cross-correlations with optical galaxy surveys and continually improving measurements of the HI auto-power spectrum. These results demonstrate that stable calibration, effective foreground mitigation, and statistical recovery of cosmological signal are all achievable with a large multi-dish telescope in total-power mode. The success of MeerKLASS therefore validates the observational strategies required for SKA-Mid and marks a key milestone in demonstrating the viability of single-dish HI intensity mapping for cosmology. Looking ahead, SKA-Mid's increased sensitivity and Band 1 coverage (350-1050 MHz) will allow the same methodology to probe redshifts up to $z\,{\sim}\,3$, mapping volumes several orders of magnitude larger than currently accessible. The techniques refined with MeerKLASS thus form the operational and scientific foundation for a large portion of the SKAO's cosmology programme.

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HI Simulations for Cosmology with the SKA Observatory

We present a comparative overview of state-of-the-art methods for modelling the distribution of neutral hydrogen (HI) in the post-reionization Universe, developed in preparation for upcoming SKAO cosmological surveys. Our aim is to assess how different physical and empirical assumptions reflect into predictions for key observables such as the cosmic HI density, the HI mass function, and the HI-halo mass relation. We consider both: (i) semi-analytical approaches that self-consistently evolve baryonic components within dark matter merger trees through physically motivated prescriptions and (ii) empirical schemes tailored to different observables and based on fast approximations designed for large ensemble studies. By comparing the predictions from the different methods considered, we find overall consistency in integrated quantities such as $\Omega_{\mathrm{HI}}$, yet systematic differences in the detailed shape and scatter of the HI--halo mass relation and its redshift evolution. Semi-analytical models offer physically grounded predictions but depend on assumed prescriptions, while empirical methods provide flexibility and computational efficiency at the expense of robustness in extrapolated regions of the parameter space. The increasing number of HI measurements from SKA precursors and pathfinders (including surveys with MeerKAT, ASKAP, and FAST) will provide critical observational constraints to refine and calibrate current simulation methodologies. In turn, increasingly realistic HI simulations play a key role in interpreting these data, guiding survey design and analysis strategies, in preparation for the advent of SKAO data.

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Cosmology with Tully-Fisher HI Galaxy Surveys

The SKA Observatory will enable measurements of the Tully-Fisher relation for statistical samples of HI selected galaxies out to unprecedented depths and redshifts thanks to its unique combined spatial and spectral sensitivity. This chapter explores the transformative potential of such surveys for cosmology, in particular in the field of peculiar velocity measurements. We briefly review the present observational landscape for Tully-Fisher HI galaxy surveys and existing peculiar velocity datasets, and compare them with predictions for SKAO Tully-Fisher HI galaxy surveys with AA* and AA4 configurations of the SKA-Mid array. We discuss the extended range of cosmology science cases covered and enabled by such surveys.

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Cosmology from Synergies Between SKAO Surveys and Gravitational Wave Observations

Both radio surveys and gravitational wave observations have the potential to probe unprecedented volumes in the Universe with systematics independent of existing cosmological probes. This gives them the potential, especially in combination, to solve some of the outstanding issues in cosmology. Here we show how the use of radio observations as electromagnetic signals tracing large scale structures can be used to provide information on gravitational wave \textit{standard sirens}. By providing a way to link luminosity distance to redshift, this combination can constrain the expansion history of the Universe, and provide information on the Hubble constant ($H_0$). We describe the utility of SKA-Mid neutral hydrogen (\hi) intensity maps, \hi\ galaxy redshift surveys, and continuum galaxy surveys compared to and in conjunction with large contemporaneous optical surveys. Such radio tracers provide a unique, large volume and high redshift information for gravitational wave source, capable of probing effectively the expansion history of the Universe $H(z)$.

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Advancing Astrophysics with the SKA II

Advancing Astrophysics with the SKA II (AASKAII), written by our science community, outlines the transformative scientific advances that will be enabled by the SKA telescopes. In the decade since the publication of the previous edition, telescope designs have matured, construction has commenced, and the SKA Organisation has evolved into the SKA Observatory (SKAO). At the same time, observations from SKA precursor and pathfinder telescopes have provided new insights into longstanding scientific challenges while revealing entirely new phenomena. Published in advance of the first science verification campaign for the SKA Observatory, this volume looks ahead to the coming decades of discovery and innovation in radio astronomy. AASKAII spans the broad range of scientific research enabled by the SKA telescopes, SKA-Mid and SKA-Low. The contributions are organised into six thematic categories according to their scientific focus. The opening section presents overview chapters from the SKA Science Working Groups, around which our community is organised. Each overview provides the broader context that connects the contributions in this volume to the key scientific questions being pursued by their respective communities.

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Radio sirens: inferring $H_0$ with binary black holes and neutral hydrogen in the era of the Einstein Telescope and the SKA Observatory

A new synergy between gravitational waves (GWs) and the study of the large-scale structure of the Universe is now emerging. Along this line of research, we combine simulated observations of stellar-origin black hole mergers and neutral hydrogen 21 cm line intensity mapping to probe the expansion rate of the Universe through the distance-redshift relation. GW signals from binary black holes provide direct distance information, while neutral hydrogen intensity maps offer a tomographic view of the large-scale structure of the Universe. Using the 3-dimensional density fields of hydrogen as a redshift prior for GW events, we explore a novel dark-sirens-like approach, here termed radio sirens, to measure the late-time expansion history of the Universe. We study the performance of the next-generation GW observatories, such as the Einstein Telescope, to ensure enough statistics and access to high-redshift data. On the other hand, future spectroscopic intensity mapping surveys with the SKA-Mid telescope are expected to trace the underlying dark matter distribution at large scales up to redshift $z\sim 3$. This combined methodology allows us to constrain the Hubble constant to $\sim 8\%$ precision, using around 3,000 GW events with signal-to-noise ratios greater than 150. This corresponds to an improvement of around $90\%$ compared to not considering the information from the neutral hydrogen maps.

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Beyond power spectrum to unveil systematics on HI intensity maps

HI intensity mapping is a promising technique to probe large-scale structure, traditionally analyzed via two-point statistics such as the angular power spectrum. This technique has proven very powerful but may miss key non-Gaussian information present in the signal. We extend the starlet l1-norm, a multi-scale higher-order statistic previously applied to weak lensing maps, to the brightness temperature fluctuations of the HI density field. The HI signal is highly non-Gaussian at late times (z < 1) due to nonlinear structure growth, motivating the use of advanced summary statistics. We simulated full-sky HI lognormal brightness temperature maps using CAMB and GLASS, generating 10,000 realizations with associated cosmological parameters. We extracted both the starlet l1-norm and angular power spectrum from these maps. Using the JaxILI framework, we performed neural density estimation for implicit likelihood inference. The analysis considered simulated maps incorporating realistic noise and telescope beam, capturing the impact of observational effects on parameter inference. In this work, we focus on the redshift range 0.4 < z < 0.45, chosen to match the interval already targeted by existing MeerKLASS observations. The starlet l1-norm significantly outperforms the angular power spectrum in constraining cosmological parameters, achieving almost a 3x improvement in the figure of merit relative to the angular power spectrum by capturing non-Gaussian features missed by two-point statistics. Moreover, our results suggest that the starlet l1-norm is robust to several of the systematic effects included in our simulations. Our findings highlight the potential of multi-scale higher-order statistics such as the starlet l1-norm to enhance cosmological inference from future HI intensity mapping surveys.

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Probing the large-scale structure with 21cm-galaxy cross-bispectrum: Estimates from simulations and forecasts for upcoming cosmological surveys

The redshifted 21cm signal from the post-reionization epoch is highly non-Gaussian; thus, higher-order statistics, such as the bispectrum, are required to extract this non-Gaussian information. However, high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) detection of the 21cm auto-bispectrum will be hindered by the presence of residual systematics. Cross-correlating the 21cm signal with galaxies offers a promising path to suppress this uncertainty from residual systematics and potentially increase the SNR. We present a comprehensive analysis of the HI-galaxy cross-bispectrum using the predictions of theoretical galaxy evolution models defined on large cosmological volumes. Our analysis includes the cross-bispectrum for different triangle sizes and shapes, as well as for different combinations of the HI and galaxy fields. We forecast the detectability of the 21cm-galaxy cross-bispectrum at redshift $z\approx1$ with the Euclid-like galaxy survey and SKA-Mid observations in both interferometric and single-dish modes of the survey. We find that the 21cm-galaxy cross-bispectrum shows enhanced detectability compared to the 21cm auto-bispectrum for all unique triangles in the interferometric mode of observations. We forecast a 10$\sigma$ detection of the cross-bispectrum for squeezed-limit triangles and a 100$\sigma$ detection for all shapes combined for scales $0.2~\text{Mpc}^{-1}\leq k_1 \leq 0.9~\text{Mpc}^{-1}$ with 100 hours of SKA-Mid observations per pointing. However, the detectability of the cross-bispectrum for large scales ($k_1 < 0.1~\text{Mpc}^{-1}$), which is accessible with the single-dish mode of the survey, is limited by cosmic variance. Additionally, the signal loss due to foreground removal further suppresses the detectability. Our analysis presents a first step toward an end-to-end analysis pipeline for the future 21cm-galaxy cross-bispectrum observations.

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Optimisation of calibration sources for global 21-cm experiments: the REACH case

The spin-flip 21-cm signal from the Cosmic Dawn and the Epoch of Reionization is an essential probe of the conditions that led to the formation of the first luminous objects in the early Universe. However, its detection remains a major challenge owing to its low strength compared to the bright foregrounds and the requirement of precise calibration of the instrument to prevent systematics that could hinder a detection or lead to false inferences. REACH (Radio Experiment for the Analysis of Cosmic Hydrogen) is a radiometer experiment designed to detect this sky-averaged signal in the frequency range of 50--130~MHz. Using a wide-beam antenna, REACH calibration relies on internal reference sources, covering a broad range of temperatures and reflection coefficients. The choice of type and number of calibrators used significantly influences the quality of the calibration. This work investigates these effects and introduces a novel method for selecting an optimal set of calibration sources. With an optimised set, we aim to reduce calibration time, thereby increasing sky integration time while preserving calibration accuracy. We explore two optimisation strategies: one applied across the full receiver band and another performed on a frequency-by-frequency basis. Finally, we demonstrate that, with a total calibration time comparable to the conventional full-calibrator set, an optimised set with fewer calibrators achieves approximately a $15~\%$ reduction in calibrated temperature noise and improved absolute calibration of the instrument. This has implications for better calibration strategies in similar radiometer experiments.

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