arXiv subjects

Matheus R. Grasselli

Publications and source records attributed to Matheus R. Grasselli.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

From debt crises to financial crashes (and back): a stock-flow consistent model for stock price bubbles

We develop a stochastic macro-financial model in continuous time by integrating two specifications of the Keen economic framework with a financial market driven by a jump-diffusion process. The economic block of the model combines monetary debt-deflation mechanisms with Ponzi-type financial destabilization and is influenced by the financial market through a stochastic interest rate that depends on asset price returns. The financial market block of the model consists of an asset with jump--diffusion price process with endogenous, state-dependent jump intensities driven by speculative credit flows. The model formalizes a feedback loop linking credit expansion, crash risk, perceived return dynamics, and bank lending spreads. Under suitable parameter restrictions, we establish global existence and non-explosion of the coupled system. Numerical experiments illustrate how variations in credit sensitivity and jump parameters generate regimes ranging from stable growth to recurrent boom--bust cycles. The framework provides a tractable setting for analyzing endogenous financial fragility within a mathematically well-posed macro--financial system.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2024

Brief Synopsis of the Scientific Career of T. R. Hurd

As an introduction to a Special Issue of International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance in Honour of the Memory of Thomas Robert Hurd we present a brief synopsis of Tom Hurd's scientific career and a bibliography of his scientific publications.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2021

Cryptocurrencies and the Future of Money

We review different classes of cryptocurrencies with emphasis on their economic properties. Pure-asset coins such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple are characterized by not being a liability of any economic agent and most resemble commodities such as gold. Central bank digital currencies, at the other end of the economic spectrum, are liabilities of a Central Bank and most resemble cash. In between, there exist a range of so-called stable coins, with varying degrees of economic complexity. We use balance sheet operations to highlight the properties of each class of cryptocurrency and their potential uses. In addition, we propose the basic structure for a macroeconomic model incorporating all the different types of cryptocurrencies under consideration.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

Sensitivity analysis of an integrated climate-economic model

We conduct a sensitivity analysis of a new type of integrated climate-economic model recently proposed in the literature, where the core economic component is based on the Goodwin-Keen dynamics instead of a neoclassical growth model. Because these models can exhibit much richer behaviour, including multiple equilibria, runaway trajectories and unbounded oscillations, it is crucial to determine how sensitive they are to changes in underlying parameters. We focus on four economic parameters (markup rate, speed of price adjustments, coefficient of money illusion, growth rate of productivity) and two climate parameters (size of upper ocean reservoir, equilibrium climate sensitivity) and show how their relative effects on the outcomes of the model can be quantified by methods that can be applied to an arbitrary number of parameters.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2020

Past production constrains current energy demands: persistent scaling in global energy consumption and implications for climate change mitigation

Climate change has become intertwined with the global economy. Here, we describe the importance of inertia to continued growth in energy consumption. Drawing from thermodynamic arguments, and using 38 years of available statistics between 1980 to 2017, we find a persistent time-independent scaling between the historical time integral $W$ of world inflation-adjusted economic production $Y$, or $W\left(t\right) = \int_0^t Y\left(t'\right)dt'$, and current rates of world primary energy consumption $\mathcal E$, such that $λ= \mathcal{E}/W = 5.9\pm0.1$ Gigawatts per trillion 2010 US dollars. This empirical result implies that population expansion is a symptom rather than a cause of the current exponential rise in $\mathcal E$ and carbon dioxide emissions $C$, and that it is past innovation of economic production efficiency $Y/\mathcal{E}$ that has been the primary driver of growth, at predicted rates that agree well with data. Options for stabilizing $C$ are then limited to rapid decarbonization of $\mathcal E$ through sustained implementation of over one Gigawatt of renewable or nuclear power capacity per day. Alternatively, assuming continued reliance on fossil fuels, civilization could shift to a steady-state economy that devotes economic production exclusively to maintenance rather than expansion. If this were instituted immediately, continual energy consumption would still be required, so atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations would not balance natural sinks until concentrations exceeded 500 ppmv, and double pre-industrial levels if the steady-state was attained by 2030.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2018

On the Normality of Negative Interest Rates

We argue that a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) can be an effect tool for macroeconomic stabilization. We first discuss how implementing negative rates on reserves held at a central bank does not pose any theoretical difficulty, with a reduction in rates operating in exactly the same way when rates are positive or negative, and show that this is compatible with an endogenous money point of view. We then propose a simplified stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model where rates are allowed to become arbitrarily negative and present simulation evidence for their stabilizing effects. In practice, the existence of physical cash imposes a lower bound for interest rates, which in our view is the main reason for the lack of effectiveness of negative interest rates in the countries that adopted them as part of their monetary policy. We conclude by discussing alternative ways to overcome this lower bound , in particular the use of central bank digital currencies.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2018

Testing a Goodwin model with general capital accumulation rate

We perform econometric tests on a modified Goodwin model where the capital accumulation rate is constant but not necessarily equal to one as in the original model (Goodwin, 1967). In addition to this modification, we find that addressing the methodological and reporting issues in Harvie (2000) leads to remarkably better results, with near perfect agreement between the estimates of equilibrium employment rates and the corresponding empirical averages, as well as significantly improved estimates of equilibrium wage shares. Despite its simplicity and obvious limitations, the performance of the modified Goodwin model implied by our results show that it can be used as a starting point for more sophisticated models for endogenous growth cycles.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2018

A comment on 'Testing Goodwin: growth cycles in ten OECD countries'

We revisit the results of Harvie (2000) and show how correcting for a reporting mistake in some of the estimated parameter values leads to significantly different conclusions, including realistic parameter values for the Philips curve and estimated equilibrium employment rates exhibiting on average one tenth of the relative error of those obtained in Harvie (2000).

econ.EM↗

arXiv2010

Stock loans in incomplete markets

A stock loan is a contract whereby a stockholder uses shares as collateral to borrow money from a bank or financial institution. In Xia and Zhou (2007), this contract is modeled as a perpetual American option with a time varying strike and analyzed in detail within a risk--neutral framework. In this paper, we extend the valuation of such loans to an incomplete market setting, which takes into account the natural trading restrictions faced by the client. When the maturity of the loan is infinite, we use a time--homogeneous utility maximization problem to obtain an exact formula for the value of the loan fee to be charged by the bank. For loans of finite maturity, we characterize the fee using variational inequality techniques. In both cases we show analytically how the fee varies with the model parameters and illustrate the results numerically.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2009

Indifference price with general semimartingales

For utility functions $u$ finite valued on $\mathbb{R}$, we prove a duality formula for utility maximization with random endowment in general semimartingale incomplete markets. The main novelty of the paper is that possibly non locally bounded semimartingale price processes are allowed. Following Biagini and Frittelli \cite{BiaFri06}, the analysis is based on the duality between the Orlicz spaces $(L^{\widehat{u}}, (L^{\widehat{u}})^*)$ naturally associated to the utility function. This formulation enables several key properties of the indifference price $π(B)$ of a claim $B$ satisfying conditions weaker than those assumed in literature. In particular, the indifference price functional $π$ turns out to be, apart from a sign, a convex risk measure on the Orlicz space $L^{\widehat{u}}$.

q-fin.PR↗