arXiv subjects

Matthew J. Holman

Publications and source records attributed to Matthew J. Holman.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The size and mass distribution of cold classical TNOs for $5<H<13$

The cold classical trans-Neptunian objects (CCs) are the only observable \textit{in situ} population of planetesimal remnants believed to have escaped collisional grinding. Recent JWST observations make it possible to fit the differential absolute magnitude distribution $dN/dH$ of the CCs from $5 13$ is unwise, as the different analytic forms diverge. It remains unclear if $dN/dH$ turns over at faint $H.$ The uncertainty in the total mass of the CC belt is dominated by uncertainty in the relation between $M$ and $H$. A calibration using CC binaries suggests a total CC mass of 1.7--2.7$\times10^{-3}\,M_\oplus.$ A trend toward lower density and/or higher albedo for smaller bodies may be present in the data, and would lower the estimated total CC mass. Qualitative comparison of the derived mass distribution to the results of numerical simulations of the streaming instability (SI) suggest the simulations produce $dN/dM$ distributions that are more sharply peaked, and steeper at the bright end, than the CCs. Such differences could be ascribed to inhomogeneous formation conditions in the classical belt that are not yet included in modeling. The variety and uncertainty of $dN/dM$ derived from state-of-the-art SI simulations currently preclude any definitive test of the SI hypothesis.

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arXiv2026

The Luminosity Function of Ultra-Faint Trans-Neptunian Objects Detected by JWST

We present a definitive discovery of 27 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) using the Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) aboard the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). By employing a shift-and-stack technique and a machine learning network geared specifically to identifying false-positive detections in JWST images produced through the shift-and-stack process, we achieved a 40\% detection threshold of $m_{F150W2}=28.8$ mag (corresponding to $m_r\sim29.8$ mag) across a sky area of $0.05 \ \text{deg}^2$. This marks the deepest Solar System survey to date, reaching magnitudes that allow us to explore never-before-seen regions of the TNO size distribution. Our faintest detection has $m_{F150W2}=29.3$ mag and diameter of $\sim10$ km (assuming 15\% albedo). Within our sample, we find that both the Cold and Hot TNO subpopulations exhibit a power-law slope. The distribution of apparent magnitudes of our nominal sample (detections at all epochs) are well fit by a single power law $dN/dm \propto 10^{αm}$ with $α=0.29^{+0.08}_{-0.07}$. The dynamically hot and cold subsamples in our discovery set are consistent with the same power law, suggesting that the planetesimal formation process yields similar slopes despite the differing disk conditions at the presumed $\sim25$ and $\sim45$~au formation regions of the two populations.

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arXiv2026

Combined JWST and HST Deep Imaging to Characterize the Smallest Known Trans-Neptunian Objects

We present optical-near-infrared (NIR) color measurements for small ($\leq 40$ km) Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) using coordinated and nearly simultaneous observations from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). JWST/NIRCam data provided detections and NIR photometry for faint TNOs, while HST/ACS and WFC3 imaging enabled recovery in the optical, together yielding optical-NIR colors spanning 0.35-3.2 $μ$m. Thirteen JWST-detected TNOs were recovered in the HST observations, and trailed PSF photometry was used to derive mean magnitudes, colors, and rotational lightcurves. The color distribution of our small cold classical TNO discoveries is narrow and consistent with the occupation of a single reflectance (color) sequence previously identified for larger cold classical TNOs. We find no evidence for a change in this sequence at smaller sizes. In contrast, the dynamically excited TNOs we discovered exhibit a broader range of colors consistent with multiple compositional classes seen at larger sizes. Lightcurve amplitudes were generally low for both dynamical groups in our sample. 2015 GK56, a previously known TNO in our field, displays a large-amplitude, structured lightcurve consistent with a contact binary. Our results indicate that the characteristic color distribution of TNOs extends to smaller sizes than previously studied, suggesting a primordial origin rather than size-dependent collisional processing.

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arXiv2026

You Only Stack Once (YOSO): A Motion-Filtered, Deep-Learning Framework for Detecting Faint Moving Sources

We present You Only Stack Once (YOSO), an automated pipeline designed to detect faint, slow-moving Solar System objects in wide-field astronomical surveys. The pipeline integrates a novel Gaussian Motion Filter (GMoF) that operates at the pixel level to enhance signal-to-noise for objects exhibiting a range of apparent rates of motion. Unlike conventional shift-and-stack methods, which rely on discrete velocity trials, GMoF amplifies trails while suppressing random noise and static background features. Applied to a subset of DEEP observations from the Dark Energy Camera, YOSO recovered 45 out of 73 previously detected objects, as well as 11 new TNOs. It also discovered 216 objects in the near Solar System. Although alternative shift-and-stack methods are sensitive to objects about 0.88 magnitudes fainter, YOSO's false positive rate is extremely low, since it detects only sources that exhibit a trail and are consistent with a point source when shifted at the right rate. We show how this method can be deployed on large surveys like LSST, and adapted for other domains that require motion-based signal enhancement, including exoplanet imaging through Angular Differential Imaging (ADI), and near-Earth object (NEO) detection for missions like NEO Surveyor. YOSO thus provides a versatile, scalable approach for extracting faint, motion-dependent signals in the era of data-intensive astronomy.

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arXiv2025

Predictions of the LSST Solar System Yield: Neptune Trojans

The NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), beginning full operations in late 2025, will dramatically transform solar system science by vastly expanding discoveries and providing detailed characterization opportunities across all small body populations. This includes the co-orbiting 1:1 resonant Neptune Trojans, which are thought to be dynamically hot captures from the protoplanetary disk. Using the survey simulator $\texttt{Sorcha}$, combined with the latest LSST cadence simulations, we present the very first predictions for the Neptune Trojan yield within the LSST. We forecast a model-dependent median number of $\sim130-300$ discovered Neptune Trojans, and infer a notable 2:1 detection bias toward the recently emerged L5 cloud near the galactic plane versus the L4 cloud, reflecting the lower-cadence coverage in the Northern Ecliptic Spur region that suppresses L4 detections. The additionally simulated Science Validation survey will offer the very first early insights into this understudied cloud. Around 60\% of detected main survey Neptune Trojans will meet stringent color light curve quality criteria, increasing the sample size more than fourfold compared to existing datasets. This enhanced sample will enable robust statistical analyses of Neptune Trojan color and size distributions, crucial for understanding their origins and relationship to the broader trans-Neptunian population. These comprehensive color measurements represent a major step forward in characterizing the Neptune Trojan population and will facilitate future targeted spectroscopic observations.

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arXiv2025

An Efficient Shift-and-Stack Algorithm Applied to Detection Catalogs

The boundary of solar system object discovery lies in detecting its faintest members. However, their discovery in detection catalogs from imaging surveys is fundamentally limited by the practice of thresholding detections at signal-to-noise (SNR) $\geq 5$ to maintain catalog purity. Faint moving objects can be recovered from survey images using the shift-and-stack algorithm, which coadds pixels from multi-epoch images along a candidate trajectory. Trajectories matching real objects accumulate signal coherently, enabling high-confidence detections of very faint moving objects. Applying shift-and-stack comes with high computational cost, which scales with target object velocity, typically limiting its use to searches for slow-moving objects in the outer solar system. This work introduces a modified shift-and-stack algorithm that trades sensitivity for speedup. Our algorithm stacks low SNR detection catalogs instead of pixels, the sparsity of which enables approximations that reduce the number of stacks required. Our algorithm achieves real-world speedups of $10$--$10^3 \times$ over image-based shift-and-stack while retaining the ability to find faint objects. We validate its performance by recovering synthetic inner and outer solar system objects injected into images from the DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP). Exploring the sensitivity--compute time trade-off of this algorithm, we find that our method achieves a speedup of $\sim30\times$ with $88\%$ of the memory usage while sacrificing $0.25$ mag in depth compared to image-based shift-and-stack. These speedups enable the broad application of shift-and-stack to large-scale imaging surveys and searches for faint inner solar system objects. We provide a reference implementation via the find-asteroids Python package and this URL: https://github.com/stevenstetzler/find-asteroids.

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arXiv2025

Predictions of the LSST Solar System Yield: Near-Earth Objects, Main Belt Asteroids, Jupiter Trojans, and Trans-Neptunian Objects

The NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory is a new 8m-class survey facility presently being commissioned in Chile, expected to begin the 10yr-long Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) by the end of 2025. Using the purpose-built Sorcha survey simulator (Merritt et al. In Press), and near-final observing cadence, we perform the first high-fidelity simulation of LSST's solar system catalog for key small body populations. We show that the final LSST catalog will deliver over 1.1 billion observations of small bodies and raise the number of known objects to 1.27E5 near-Earth objects, 5.09E6 main belt asteroids, 1.09E5 Jupiter Trojans, and 3.70E4 trans-Neptunian objects. These represent 4-9x more objects than are presently known in each class, making LSST the largest source of data for small body science in this and the following decade. We characterize the measurements available for these populations, including orbits, griz colors, and lightcurves, and point out science opportunities they open. Importantly, we show that ~70% of the main asteroid belt and more distant populations will be discovered in the first two years of the survey, making high-impact solar system science possible from very early on. We make our simulated LSST catalog publicly available, allowing researchers to test their methods on an up-to-date, representative, full-scale simulation of LSST data.

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arXiv2025

Predictions of the LSST Solar System Yield: Discovery Rates and Characterizations of Centaurs

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will start by the end of 2025 and operate for ten years, offering billions of observations of the southern night sky. One of its main science goals is to create an inventory of the Solar System, allowing for a more detailed understanding of small body populations including the Centaurs, which will benefit from the survey's high cadence and depth. In this paper, we establish the first discovery limits for Centaurs throughout the LSST's decade-long operation using the best available dynamical models. Using the survey simulator $\texttt{Sorcha}$, we predict a $\sim$7-12 fold increase in Centaurs in the Minor Planet Center (MPC) database, reaching $\sim$1200-2000 (dependent on definition) by the end of the survey - about 50$\%$ of which are expected within the first 2 years. Approximately 30-50 Centaurs will be observed twice as frequently as they fall within one of the LSST's Deep Drilling Fields (DDF) for on average only up to two months. Outside of the DDFs, Centaurs will receive $\sim$200 observations across the $\textit{ugrizy}$ filter range, facilitating searches for cometary-like activity through PSF extension analysis, as well as fitting light-curves and phase curves for color determination. Regardless of definition, over 200 Centaurs will achieve high-quality color measurements across at least three filters in the LSST's six filters. These observations will also provide over 300 well-defined phase curves in the $\textit{griz}$ bands, improving absolute magnitude measurements to a precision of 0.2 mags.

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arXiv2025

Sorcha: A Solar System Survey Simulator for the Legacy Survey of Space and Time

The upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) at the Vera C. Rubin Observatory is expected to revolutionize solar system astronomy. Unprecedented in scale, this ten-year wide-field survey will collect billions of observations and discover a predicted $\sim$5 million new solar system objects. Like all astronomical surveys, its results will be affected by a complex system of intertwined detection biases. Survey simulators have long been used to forward-model the effects of these biases on a given population, allowing for a direct comparison to real discoveries. However, the scale and tremendous scope of the LSST requires the development of new tools. In this paper we present Sorcha, an open-source survey simulator written in Python. Designed with the scale of LSST in mind, Sorcha is a comprehensive survey simulator to cover all solar system small-body populations. Its flexible, modular design allows Sorcha to be easily adapted to other surveys by the user. The simulator is built to run both locally and on high-performance computing (HPC) clusters, allowing for repeated simulation of millions to billions of objects (both real and synthetic).

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arXiv2025

Sorcha: Optimized Solar System Ephemeris Generation

Sorcha is a solar system survey simulator built for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and future large-scale wide-field surveys. Over the ten-year survey, the LSST is expected to collect roughly a billion observations of minor planets. The task of a solar system survey simulator is to take a set of input objects (described by orbits and physical properties) and determine what a real or hypothetical survey would have discovered. Existing survey simulators have a computational bottleneck in determining which input objects lie in each survey field, making them infeasible for LSST data scales. Sorcha can swiftly, efficiently, and accurately calculate the on-sky positions for sets of millions of input orbits and surveys with millions of visits, identifying which exposures these objects cross, in order for later stages of the software to make detailed estimates of the apparent magnitude and detectability of those input small bodies. In this paper, we provide the full details of the algorithm and software behind Sorcha's ephemeris generator. Like many of Sorcha's components, its ephemeris generator can be easily used for other surveys.

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arXiv2025

A Pan-STARRS Search for Distant Planets: Part 1

We present a search for distant planets in Pan-STARRS1. We calibrated our search by injecting an isotropic control population of synthetic detections into Pan-STARRS1 source catalogs, providing a high-fidelity alternative to injecting synthetic sources at the image level. We found that our method is sensitive to a wide range of distances, as well as all rates and directions of motion. We identified 692 solar system objects (109 of which are not yet listed in the Minor Planet Center's database), including 642 TNOs, 23 of which are dwarf planets. By raw number of detections, this makes our search the third most productive Kuiper Belt survey to date, in spite of the fact that we did not explicitly search for objects closer than 80 au. Although we did not find Planet Nine or any other planetary objects, we were able to show that the remaining parameter space for Planet Nine is highly concentrated in the galactic plane.

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arXiv2024

A Well-Characterized Survey for Centaurs in Pan-STARRS1

To prepare for the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time, we develop methods for quantifying the selection function of a wide-field survey as a function of all six orbital parameters and absolute magnitude. We perform a HelioLinC3D search for Centaurs in the Pan-STARRS1 detection catalog and use a synthetic debiasing population to characterize our survey's selection function. We find nine new objects, including Centaur 2010 RJ$_{226}$, among 320 real objects, along with $\sim$70,000 debiasing objects. We use the debiasing population to fit a selection function and apply the selection function to a model Centaur population with literature orbital and size distributions. We confirm the model's marginal distributions but reject its joint distribution, and estimate an intrinsic population of 21,400$^{+3,400}_{-2,800}$ Centaurs with $H_r < 13.7$. The discovery of only nine new objects in archival data verifies that the Pan-STARRS discovery pipeline had high completeness, but also shows that new linking algorithms can contribute even to traditional single-tracklet surveys. As the first systematic application of HelioLinC3D to a survey with extensive sky coverage, this project proves the viability of HelioLinC3D as a discovery algorithm for big-data wide-field surveys.

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arXiv2024

Strong Nongravitational Accelerations and the Potential for Misidentification of Near-Earth Objects

Nongravitational accelerations in the absence of observed activity have recently been identified on NEOs, opening the question of the prevalence of anisotropic mass-loss in the near-Earth environment. Motivated by the necessity of nongravitational accelerations to identify 2010 VL$_{65}$ and 2021 UA$_{12}$ as a single object, we investigate the problem of linking separate apparitions in the presence of nongravitational perturbations. We find that nongravitational accelerations on the order of $10^{-9}$ au/d$^2$ can lead to a change in plane-of-sky positions of $\sim10^3$ arcsec between apparitions. Moreover, we inject synthetic tracklets of hypothetical nongravitationally-accelerating NEOs into the Minor Planet Center orbit identification algorithms. We find that at large nongravitational accelerations ($|A_i|\geq10^{-8}$ au/d$^2$) these algorithms fail to link a significant fraction of these tracklets. We further show that if orbits can be determined for both apparitions, the tracklets will be linked regardless of nongravitational accelerations, although they may be linked to multiple objects. In order to aid in the identification and linkage of nongravitationally accelerating objects, we propose and test a new methodology to search for unlinked pairs. When applied to the current census of NEOs, we recover the previously identified case but identify no new linkages. We conclude that current linking algorithms are generally robust to nongravitational accelerations, but objects with large nongravitational accelerations may potentially be missed. While current algorithms are well-positioned for the anticipated increase in the census population from future survey missions, it may be possible to find objects with large nongravitational accelerations hidden in isolated tracklet pairs.

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arXiv2024

The DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP). VII. The Strengths of Three Superfast Rotating Main-belt Asteroids from a Preliminary Search of DEEP Data

Superfast rotators (SFRs) are small solar system objects that rotate faster than generally possible for a cohesionless rubble pile. Their rotational characteristics allow us to make inferences about their interior structure and composition. Here, we present the methods and results from a preliminary search for SFRs in the DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP) data set. We find three SFRs from a sample of 686 main-belt asteroids, implying an occurrence rate of 0.4 -0.3/+0.1 percent - a higher incidence rate than has been measured by previous studies. We suggest that this high occurrence rate is due to the small sub-kilometer size regime to which DEEP has access: the objects searched here were as small as 500 m. We compute the minimum required cohesive strength for each of these SFRs and discuss the implications of these strengths in the context of likely evolution mechanisms. We find that all three of these SFRs require strengths that are more than that of weak regolith but consistent with many cohesive asteroid strengths reported in the literature. Across the full DEEP data set, we have identified ~70,000 Main-Belt Asteroids and expect ~300 SFRs - a result that will be assessed in a future paper.

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arXiv2024

The New Horizons Extended Mission Target: Arrokoth Search and Discovery

Following the Pluto fly-by of the New Horizons spacecraft, the mission provided a unique opportunity to explore the Kuiper Belt in-situ. The possibility existed to fly-by a Kuiper Belt object (KBO) as well as to observe additional objects at distances closer than are feasible from earth-orbit facilities. However, at the time of launch no KBOs were known about that were accessible by the spacecraft. In this paper we present the results of 10 years of observations and three uniquely dedicated efforts -- two ground-based using the Subaru Suprime Camera, the Magellan MegaCam and IMACS Cameras, and one with the Hubble Space Telescope -- to find such KBOs for study. In this paper we overview the search criteria and strategies employed in our work and detail the analysis efforts to locate and track faint objects in the galactic plane. We also present a summary of all of the KBOs that were discovered as part of our efforts and how spacecraft targetability was assessed, including a detailed description of our astrometric analysis which included development of an extensive secondary calibration network. Overall, these efforts resulted in the discovery of 89 KBOs including 11 which became objects for distant observation by New Horizons and (486958) Arrokoth which became the first post-Pluto fly-by destination.

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arXiv2024

Recommendations for Early Definition Science with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman), NASA's next flagship observatory, has significant mission time to be spent on surveys for general astrophysics in addition to its three core community surveys. We considered what types of observations outside the core surveys would most benefit from early definition, given 700 hours of mission time in the first two years of Roman's operation. We recommend that a survey of the Galactic plane be defined early, based on the broad range of stakeholders for such a survey, the added scientific value of a first pass to obtain a baseline for proper motions complementary to Gaia's, and the significant potential synergies with ground-based surveys, notably the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) on Rubin. We also found strong motivation to follow a community definition process for ultra-deep observations with Roman.

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arXiv2024

A Pan-STARRS1 Search for Planet Nine

We present a search for Planet Nine using the second data release of the Pan-STARRS1survey. We rule out the existence of a Planet Nine with the characteristics of that predicted in Brown & Batygin (2021) to a 50% completion depth of $V=21.5$. This survey, along with previous analyses of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and Dark EnergySurvey (DES) data, rules out 78% of the Brown \& Batygin parameter space. Much of the remaining parameter space is at $V>21$ in regions near and in the area where the northern galactic plane crosses the ecliptic.

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arXiv2023

The DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP) II. Observational Strategy and Design

We present the DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP) survey strategy including observing cadence for orbit determination, exposure times, field pointings and filter choices. The overall goal of the survey is to discover and characterize the orbits of a few thousand Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) using the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) on the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) Blanco 4 meter telescope. The experiment is designed to collect a very deep series of exposures totaling a few hours on sky for each of several 2.7 square degree DECam fields-of-view to achieve a magnitude of about 26.2 using a wide VR filter which encompasses both the V and R bandpasses. In the first year, several nights were combined to achieve a sky area of about 34 square degrees. In subsequent years, the fields have been re-visited to allow TNOs to be tracked for orbit determination. When complete, DEEP will be the largest survey of the outer solar system ever undertaken in terms of newly discovered object numbers, and the most prolific at producing multi-year orbital information for the population of minor planets beyond Neptune at 30 au.

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