arXiv subjects

Matthew J. Holman

Publications and source records attributed to Matthew J. Holman.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

The DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP) II. Observational Strategy and Design

We present the DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP) survey strategy including observing cadence for orbit determination, exposure times, field pointings and filter choices. The overall goal of the survey is to discover and characterize the orbits of a few thousand Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) using the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) on the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) Blanco 4 meter telescope. The experiment is designed to collect a very deep series of exposures totaling a few hours on sky for each of several 2.7 square degree DECam fields-of-view to achieve a magnitude of about 26.2 using a wide VR filter which encompasses both the V and R bandpasses. In the first year, several nights were combined to achieve a sky area of about 34 square degrees. In subsequent years, the fields have been re-visited to allow TNOs to be tracked for orbit determination. When complete, DEEP will be the largest survey of the outer solar system ever undertaken in terms of newly discovered object numbers, and the most prolific at producing multi-year orbital information for the population of minor planets beyond Neptune at 30 au.

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arXiv2023

The DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP) III: Survey characterization and simulation methods

We present a detailed study of the observational biases of the DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project's (DEEP) B1 data release and survey simulation software that enables direct statistical comparisons between models and our data. We inject a synthetic population of objects into the images, and then subsequently recover them in the same processing as our real detections. This enables us to characterize the survey's completeness as a function of apparent magnitudes and on-sky rates of motion. We study the statistically optimal functional form for the magnitude, and develop a methodology that can estimate the magnitude and rate efficiencies for all survey's pointing groups simultaneously. We have determined that our peak completeness is on average 80\% in each pointing group, and our magnitude drops to $25\%$ of this value at $m_{25} = 26.22$. We describe the freely available survey simulation software and its methodology. We conclude by using it to infer that our effective search area for objects at 40 au is $14.8°^2$, and that our lack of dynamically cold distant objects means that there at most $8\times 10^3$ objects with $60 < a < 80$ au and absolute magnitudes $H \leq 8$.

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arXiv2023

The DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP) VI: first multi-year observations of trans-Neptunian objects

We present the first set of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) observed on multiple nights in data taken from the DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP). Of these 110 TNOs, 105 do not coincide with previously known TNOs and appear to be new discoveries. Each individual detection for our objects resulted from a digital tracking search at TNO rates of motion, using two to four hour exposure sets, and the detections were subsequently linked across multiple observing seasons. This procedure allows us to find objects with magnitudes $m_{VR} \approx 26$. The object discovery processing also included a comprehensive population of objects injected into the images, with a recovery and linking rate of at least $94\%$. The final orbits were obtained using a specialized orbit fitting procedure that accounts for the positional errors derived from the digital tracking procedure. Our results include robust orbits and magnitudes for classical TNOs with absolute magnitudes $H \sim 10$, as well as a dynamically detached object found at 76 au (semi-major axis $a\approx 77 \, \mathrm{au}$). We find a disagreement between our population of classical TNOs and the CFEPS-L7 three component model for the Kuiper belt.

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arXiv2023

The DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP): V. The Absolute Magnitude Distribution of the Cold Classical Kuiper Belt

The DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP) is a deep survey of the trans-Neptunian solar system being carried out on the 4-meter Blanco telescope at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile using the Dark Energy Camera (DECam). By using a shift-and-stack technique to achieve a mean limiting magnitude of $r \sim 26.2$, DEEP achieves an unprecedented combination of survey area and depth, enabling quantitative leaps forward in our understanding of the Kuiper Belt populations. This work reports results from an analysis of twenty 3 sq.\ deg.\ DECam fields along the invariable plane. We characterize the efficiency and false-positive rates for our moving-object detection pipeline, and use this information to construct a Bayesian signal probability for each detected source. This procedure allows us to treat all of our Kuiper Belt Object (KBO) detections statistically, simultaneously accounting for efficiency and false positives. We detect approximately 2300 candidate sources with KBO-like motion at S/N $>6.5$. We use a subset of these objects to compute the luminosity function of the Kuiper Belt as a whole, as well as the Cold Classical (CC) population. We also investigate the absolute magnitude ($H$) distribution of the CCs, and find consistency with both an exponentially tapered power-law, which is predicted by streaming instability models of planetesimal formation, and a rolling power law. Finally, we provide an updated mass estimate for the Cold Classical Kuiper Belt of $M_{CC}(H_r < 12) = 0.0017^{+0.0010}_{-0.0004} M_{\oplus}$, assuming albedo $p = 0.15$ and density $ρ= 1$ g cm$^{-3}$.

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arXiv2023

The DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP): I. Survey description, science questions, and technical demonstration

We present here the DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP), a three year NOAO/NOIRLab Survey that was allocated 46.5 nights to discover and measure the properties of thousands of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) to magnitudes as faint as VR~27, corresponding to sizes as small as 20 km diameter. In this paper we present the science goals of this project, the experimental design of our survey, and a technical demonstration of our approach. The core of our project is "digital tracking," in which all collected images are combined at a range of motion vectors to detect unknown TNOs that are fainter than the single exposure depth of VR~23 mag. Through this approach we reach a depth that is approximately 2.5 magnitudes fainter than the standard LSST "wide fast deep" nominal survey depth of 24.5 mag. DEEP will more than double the number of known TNOs with observational arcs of 24 hours or more, and increase by a factor of 10 or more the number of known small (<50 km) TNOs. We also describe our ancillary science goals, including measuring the mean shape distribution of very small main belt asteroids, and briefly outline a set of forthcoming papers that present further aspects of and preliminary results from the DEEP program.

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arXiv2023

Can the gravitational effect of Planet X be detected in current-era tracking of the known major and minor planets?

Using Fisher information matrices, we forecast the uncertainties $σ_M$ on the measurement of a "Planet X" at heliocentric distance $d_X$ via its tidal gravitational field's action on the known planets. Using planetary measurements currently in hand, including ranging from the Juno, Cassini, and Mars-orbiting spacecraft, we forecast a median uncertainty (over all possible sky positions) of $σ_M=0.22M_\oplus (d_x/400\,\textrm{AU})^3.$ A definitive $(5σ)$ detection of a $5M_\oplus$ Planet X at $d_X=400$ AU should be possible over the full sky but over only 5% of the sky at $d_X=800$ AU. The gravity of an undiscovered Earth- or Mars-mass object should be detectable over 90% of the sky to a distance of 260 or 120 AU, respectively. Upcoming Mars ranging improves these limits only slightly. We also investigate the power of high-precision astrometry of $\approx8000$ Jovian Trojans over the 2023--2035 period from the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We find that the dominant systematic errors in optical Trojan astrometry (photocenter motion, non-gravitational forces, and differential chromatic refraction) can be solved internally with minimal loss of information. The Trojan data allow useful cross-checks with Juno/Cassini/Mars ranging, but do not significantly improve the best-achievable $σ_M$ values until they are $\gtrsim10\times$ more accurate than expected from LSST. The ultimate limiting factor in searches for a Planet X tidal field is confusion with the tidal field created by the fluctuating quadrupole moment of the Kuiper Belt as its members orbit. This background will not, however, become the dominant source of Planet X uncertainty until the data get substantially better than they are today.

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arXiv2023

ASSIST: An Ephemeris-Quality Test Particle Integrator

We introduce ASSIST, a software package for ephemeris-quality integrations of test particles. ASSIST is an extension of the REBOUND framework and makes use of its IAS15 integrator to integrate test particle trajectories in the field of the Sun, Moon, planets, and 16 massive asteroids, with the positions of the masses coming from the JPL DE441 ephemeris and its associated asteroid perturber file. The package incorporates the most significant gravitational harmonics and general relativistic corrections. ASSIST also accounts for position- and velocity-dependent non-gravitational effects. The first order variational equations are included for all terms to support orbit fitting and covariance mapping. This new framework is meant to provide an open-source package written in a modern language to enable high-precision orbital analysis and science by the small body community. ASSIST is open source, freely distributed under the GNU General Public license, version 3.

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arXiv2022

From Data to Software to Science with the Rubin Observatory LSST

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) dataset will dramatically alter our understanding of the Universe, from the origins of the Solar System to the nature of dark matter and dark energy. Much of this research will depend on the existence of robust, tested, and scalable algorithms, software, and services. Identifying and developing such tools ahead of time has the potential to significantly accelerate the delivery of early science from LSST. Developing these collaboratively, and making them broadly available, can enable more inclusive and equitable collaboration on LSST science. To facilitate such opportunities, a community workshop entitled "From Data to Software to Science with the Rubin Observatory LSST" was organized by the LSST Interdisciplinary Network for Collaboration and Computing (LINCC) and partners, and held at the Flatiron Institute in New York, March 28-30th 2022. The workshop included over 50 in-person attendees invited from over 300 applications. It identified seven key software areas of need: (i) scalable cross-matching and distributed joining of catalogs, (ii) robust photometric redshift determination, (iii) software for determination of selection functions, (iv) frameworks for scalable time-series analyses, (v) services for image access and reprocessing at scale, (vi) object image access (cutouts) and analysis at scale, and (vii) scalable job execution systems. This white paper summarizes the discussions of this workshop. It considers the motivating science use cases, identified cross-cutting algorithms, software, and services, their high-level technical specifications, and the principles of inclusive collaborations needed to develop them. We provide it as a useful roadmap of needs, as well as to spur action and collaboration between groups and individuals looking to develop reusable software for early LSST science.

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arXiv2022

The Effects of Disk Induced Apsidal Precession on Planets Captured into Mean Motion Resonance

The process of migration into resonance capture has been well studied for planetary systems where the gravitational potential is generated exclusively by the star and planets. However, massive protoplanetary disks add a significant perturbation to these models. In this paper we consider two limiting cases of disk-induced precession on migrating planets and find that small amounts of precession significantly affect the equilibrium reached by migrating planets. We investigate these effects with a combination of semi-analytic models of the resonance and numerical integrations. We also consider the case of the disk's dispersal, which can excite significant libration amplitude and can cause ejection from resonance for large enough precession rates. Both of these effects have implications for interpreting the known exoplanet population and may prove to be important considerations as the population of well-characterized exoplanet systems continues to grow.

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arXiv2021

The TESS Mission Target Selection Procedure

We describe the target selection procedure by which stars are selected for 2-minute and 20-second observations by TESS. We first list the technical requirements of the TESS instrument and ground systems processing that limit the total number of target slots. We then describe algorithms used by the TESS Payload Operation Center (POC) to merge candidate targets requested by the various TESS mission elements (the Target Selection Working Group, TESS Asteroseismic Science Consortium, and Guest Investigator office). Lastly, we summarize the properties of the observed TESS targets over the two-year primary TESS mission. We find that the POC target selection algorithm results in 2.1 to 3.4 times as many observed targets as target slots allocated for each mission element. We also find that the sky distribution of observed targets is different from the sky distributions of candidate targets due to technical constraints that require a relatively even distribution of targets across the TESS fields of view. We caution researchers exploring statistical analyses of TESS planet-host stars that the population of observed targets cannot be characterized by any simple set of criteria applied to the properties of the input Candidate Target Lists.

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arXiv2021

Significant improvement in planetary system simulations from statistical averaging

Symplectic integrators are widely used for the study of planetary dynamics and other $N$-body problems. In a study of the outer Solar system, we demonstrate that individual symplectic integrations can yield biased errors in the semi-major axes and possibly other orbital elements. The bias is resolved by studying an ensemble of initial conditions of the outer Solar system. Such statistical sampling could significantly improve measurement of planetary system properties like their secular frequencies. We also compared the distributions of action-like variables between high and low accuracy integrations; traditional statistical metrics are unable to distinguish the distribution functions.

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arXiv2021

The TESS Objects of Interest Catalog from the TESS Prime Mission

We present 2,241 exoplanet candidates identified with data from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) during its two-year prime mission. We list these candidates in the TESS Objects of Interest (TOI) Catalog, which includes both new planet candidates found by TESS and previously-known planets recovered by TESS observations. We describe the process used to identify TOIs and investigate the characteristics of the new planet candidates, and discuss some notable TESS planet discoveries. The TOI Catalog includes an unprecedented number of small planet candidates around nearby bright stars, which are well-suited for detailed follow-up observations. The TESS data products for the Prime Mission (Sectors 1-26), including the TOI Catalog, light curves, full-frame images, and target pixel files, are publicly available on the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes.

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arXiv2020

EnckeHH: an integrator for gravitational dynamics with a dominant mass that achieves optimal error behaviour

We present EnckeHH, a new, highly accurate code for orbital dynamics of perturbed Keplerian systems such as planetary systems or galactic centre systems. It solves Encke's equations of motion, which assume perturbed Keplerian orbits. By incorporating numerical techniques, we have made the code follow optimal roundoff error growth. In a $10^ {12}$ day integration of the outer Solar System, EnckeHH was $3.5$ orders of magnitude more accurate than IAS15 in a fixed time step test. Adaptive steps are recommended for IAS15. Through study of efficiency plots, we show that EnckeHH reaches significantly higher accuracy than the Rebound integrators IAS15 and WHCKL for fixed step size.

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arXiv2020

Mildly-Hierarchical triple dynamics and applications to the outer solar system

Three-body interactions are ubiquitous in astrophysics. For instance, Kozai-Lidov oscillations in hierarchical triple systems have been studied extensively and applied to a wide range of astrophysical systems. However, mildly-hierarchical triples also play an important role, but they are less explored. In this work we consider the secular dynamics of a test particle in a mildly-hierarchical configuration. We find the limit within which the secular approximation is reliable, present resonances and chaotic regions using surface of sections, and characterize regions of phase space that allow large eccentricity and inclination variations. Finally, we apply the secular results to the outer solar system. We focus on the distribution of extreme trans-neptunian objects (eTNOs) under the perturbation of a possible outer planet (Planet-9), and find that in addition to a low inclination Planet-9, a polar or a counter-orbiting one could also produce pericenter clustering of eTNOs, while the polar one leads to a wider spread of eTNO inclinations.

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arXiv2020

The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable Zone Planets Around Solar-Like Stars from Kepler Data

We present occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZ) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define $η_\oplus$ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radius between 0.5 and 1.5 $R_\oplus$ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 K and 6300 K. We find that $η_\oplus$ for the conservative HZ is between $0.37^{+0.48}_{-0.21}$ (errors reflect 68\% credible intervals) and $0.60^{+0.90}_{-0.36}$ planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between $0.58^{+0.73}_{-0.33}$ and $0.88^{+1.28}_{-0.51}$ planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates using both a Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with $95\%$ confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is about 6 pc away, and there are about 4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.

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arXiv2020

The continuing search for evidence of tidal orbital decay of hot Jupiters

Many of the known hot Jupiters are formally unstable to tidal orbital decay. The only hot Jupiter for which orbital decay has been directly detected is WASP-12, for which transit timing measurements spanning more than a decade have revealed that the orbital period is decreasing at a rate of $dP/dt\approx 10^{-9}$, corresponding to a reduced tidal quality factor of about $2\times 10^5$. Here, we present a compilation of transit-timing data for WASP-12 and eleven other systems which are especially favorable for detecting orbital decay: KELT-16; WASP-18, 19, 43, 72, 103, 114, and 122; HAT-P-23; HATS-18; and OGLE-TR-56. For most of these systems we present new data that extend the time baseline over which observations have been performed. None of the systems besides WASP-12 displays convincing evidence for period changes, with typical upper limits on $dP/dt$ on the order of $10^{-9}$ or $10^{-10}$, and lower limits on the reduced tidal quality factor on the order of $10^5$. One possible exception is WASP-19, which shows a statistically significant trend, although it may be a spurious effect of starspot activity. Further observations are encouraged.

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arXiv2019

The Orbit of WASP-12b is Decaying

WASP-12b is a transiting hot Jupiter on a 1.09-day orbit around a late-F star. Since the planet's discovery in 2008, the time interval between transits has been decreasing by $29\pm 2$ msec year$^{-1}$. This is a possible sign of orbital decay, although the previously available data left open the possibility that the planet's orbit is slightly eccentric and is undergoing apsidal precession. Here, we present new transit and occultation observations that provide more decisive evidence for orbital decay, which is favored over apsidal precession by a $Δ\mathrm{BIC}$ of 22.3 or Bayes factor of 70,000. We also present new radial-velocity data that rule out the Rømer effect as the cause of the period change. This makes WASP-12 the first planetary system for which we can be confident that the orbit is decaying. The decay timescale for the orbit is $P/\dot{P} = 3.25\pm 0.23$ Myr. Interpreting the decay as the result of tidal dissipation, the modified stellar tidal quality factor is $Q'_\star = 1.8 \times10^{5}$.

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arXiv2019

A TESS Search for Distant Solar System Planets: A Feasibility Study

As the NASA Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) fulfills its primary mission it is executing an unprecedented all-sky survey with the potential to discover distant planets in our own solar system, as well as hundreds of Transneptunian Objects (TNOs) and Centaurs. We demonstrate that shift-and-stack techniques can be used to efficiently search the Full-Frame Image (FFI) data from the TESS mission and survey the entire sky for outer Solar System objects down to $\sim22^{nd}$ magnitude.

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