arXiv subjects

Matthew J. Holman

Publications and source records attributed to Matthew J. Holman.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Prospects for TTV Detection and Dynamical Constraints with TESS

We consider the potential for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) to detect transit timing variations (TTVs) during both its nominal and extended mission phases. Building on previous estimates of the overall yield of planetary systems from the TESS mission, we predict that during its nominal two-year mission, TESS will observe measurable TTVs in $\sim30$ systems, from which $\mathcal{O}(10)$ planet will get precise mass measurements from TTVs alone, $\sim 5$ planets will have significant constraints placed on their masses from TTVs, and over a dozen systems will be singly-transiting TTV systems. We consider a number of different extended mission scenarios, and predict that in a typical scenario, an extended mission will allow TESS to increase the number of systems with measurable TTVs to a total of $\sim90$, from which $\sim 15$ planets will have precise mass measurements, another $\sim 15$ will have significant constraints placed on their masses, and $\sim60$ will be singly-transiting TTV systems. We also describe how follow-up transit observations of multi-planet systems discovered by the TESS mission can be optimally planned to maximize TTV mass and eccentricity constraints.

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arXiv2019

Kepler-9: the First Multi-Transiting System and the First Transit Timing Variations

Kepler-9, discovered by Holman et al. 2010, was the first system with multiple confirmed transiting planets and the first system to clearly show long-anticipated transit timing variations (TTVs). We review the historical circumstances behind the discovery and characterization of these planets and the publication of Holman et al. 2010. It was the first major novel exoplanet discovery of the Kepler Space Telescope mission. The Kepler pipeline identified two Saturn-radius candidates (called Kepler Objects of Interest or KOIs): KOI-377.01 with a 19-day period and KOI-377.02 with a 39-day period. Even with only 9 transits for KOI-377.01 and 6 of KOI-377.02, the transit times were completely inconsistent with a linear ephemeris and showed strongly anti-correlated variations in transit times. Holman et al. 2010 were able to readily show that these objects were planetary mass, confirming them as bona fide planets Kepler-9b and Kepler-9c. As a multi-transiting system exhibiting strong TTVs, the relative planetary properties (e.g., mass ratio, radius ratio) were strongly constrained, opening a new chapter in comparative planetology. KOI-377.03, a small planet with a 1.5-day period, was not initially discovered by the Kepler pipeline, but was identified during the analysis of the other planets and was later confirmed as Kepler-9d through the BLENDER technique by Torres et al. 2011. Holman et al. 2010 included significant dynamical analysis to characterize Kepler-9's particular TTVs: planets near resonance show large amplitude anti-correlated TTVs with a period corresponding to the rotation of the line of conjunctions and an additional "chopping" signal due to the changing positions of the planets. We also review the updated properties of this system and propose ideas for future investigations.

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arXiv2019

The digest2 NEO Classification Code

We describe the digest2 software package, a fast, short-arc orbit classifier for small Solar System bodies. The digest2 algorithm has been serving the community for more than 13 years. The code provides a score, D2, which represents a pseudo-probability that a tracklet belongs to a given Solar System orbit type. digest2 is primarily used as a classifier for Near-Earth Object (NEO) candidates, to identify those to be prioritized for follow-up observation. We describe the historical development of digest2 and demonstrate its use on real and synthetic data. We find that digest2 can accurately and precisely distinguish NEOs from non- NEOs. At the time of detection, 14% of NEO tracklets and 98.5% of non-NEOs tracklets have D2 below the critical value of D2 = 65. 94% of our simulated NEOs achieved the maximum D2 = 100 and 99.6% of NEOs achieved $D2 \ge 65$ at least once during the simulated 10-year timeframe. We demonstrate that D2 varies as a function of time, rate of motion, magnitude and sky-plane location, and show that NEOs tend to have lower D2 at low Solar elongations close to the ecliptic. We use our findings to recommend future development directions for the digest2 code.

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arXiv2018

The Secular Dynamics of TNOs and Planet Nine Interactions

The existence of Planet Nine has been suggested to explain the pericenter clustering of extreme trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs). However, the underlying dynamics involving Planet Nine, test particles and Neptune is rich, and it remains unclear which dynamical processes lead to the alignment and how they depends on the properties of Planet Nine. Here, we investigate the secular interactions between an eccentric outer perturber and TNOs starting in a near-coplanar configuration. We find that a large number of TNOs could survive outside of mean motion resonances at 4Gyr, which differs from previous results obtained in the exact coplanar case with Neptune being treated as a quadrupole potential. In addition, secular dynamics leads to the orbital clustering seen in N-body simulations. We find that a near coplanar Planet Nine can flip TNO orbital planes, and when this happens, the geometrical longitudes of pericenter of the TNOs librate around $180^\circ$ during the flip. Orbital precession caused by the inner giant planets can suppress the flips while keeping the longitude of pericenter librating when $30\lesssim r_p \lesssim 80$ AU $\&$ $a\gtrsim 250$ AU. This results in the alignment of the pericenter of the low inclination TNOs ($i \lesssim 40^\circ$). We find the anti-aligned population and the flipped orbits could be produced by an eccentric ($e_9 \gtrsim 0.4$) outer planet of $\sim 10M_{\oplus}$ in a wide $a_9 \gtrsim 400 \sim 800$ AU orbit. Future surveys on the high inclination TNOs will help further constrain the properties of possible outer planets.

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arXiv2018

Prospects for Refining Kepler TTV Masses using TESS Observations

In this paper we investigate systems previously identified to exhibit transit timing variations (TTVs) in Kepler data, with the goal of predicting the expected improvements to the mass and eccentricity constraints that will arise from combining Kepler data with future data from the TESS mission. We advocate for the use of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence as a means to quantify improvements in the measured constraints. Compared to the original Kepler data, the TESS data will have a lower signal-to-noise ratio, rendering some of the planetary transits undetectable, and lowering the accuracy with which the transit mid-time can be estimated. Despite these difficulties, out of the 55 systems (containing 143 planets) investigated, we predict that the collection of short-cadence data by TESS will be of significant value (i.e. it will improve the mass uncertainty such that the KL divergence is > 0.1) for approximately 6 - 14 planets during the nominal mission, with the range primarily driven by the uncertain precision with which transit mid-times will be recovered from TESS data. In an extended mission this would increase to a total of approximately 12 - 25 planets.

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arXiv2018

Unconfirmed Near-Earth Objects

We studied the Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) candidates posted on the Minor Planet Center's Near-Earth Object Confirmation Page (NEOCP) between years 2013 and 2016. Out of more than 17,000 NEA candidates, while the majority became either new discoveries or were associated with previously known objects, about 11% were unable to be followed-up or confirmed. We further demonstrate that of the unconfirmed candidates, 926+/-50 are likely to be NEAs, representing 18% of discovered NEAs in that period. Only 11% (~93) of the unconfirmed NEA candidates were large (having absolute magnitude H<22). To identify the reasons why these NEAs were not recovered, we analyzed those from the most prolific asteroid surveys: Pan-STARRS, the Catalina Sky Survey, the Dark Energy Survey, and the Space Surveillance Telescope. We examined the influence of plane-of-sky positions and rates of motion, brightnesses, submission delays, and computed absolute magnitudes, as well as correlations with the phase of the moon and seasonal effects. We find that delayed submission of newly discovered NEA candidate to the NEOCP drove a large fraction of the unconfirmed NEA candidates. A high rate of motion was another significant contributing factor. We suggest that prompt submission of suspected NEA discoveries and rapid response to fast moving targets and targets with fast growing ephemeris uncertainty would allow better coordination among dedicated follow-up observers, decrease the number of unconfirmed NEA candidates, and increase the discovery rate of NEAs.

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arXiv2018

Finding Asteroids Down the Back of the Couch: A Novel Approach to the Minor Planet Linking Problem

We present a novel approach to the minor planet linking problem. Our heliocentric transformation-and-propagation algorithm clusters tracklets at common epochs, allowing for the efficient identification of tracklets that represent the same minor planet. This algorithm scales as $O(N log N)$, with the number of tracklets $N$, a significant advance over standard methods, which scale as $O(N^3)$. This overcomes one of the primary computational bottlenecks faced by current and future asteroid surveys. We apply our algorithm to the Minor Planet Center's Isolated Tracklet File, establishing orbits for $\sim41,000$ new minor planets.

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arXiv2018

Chaotic Dynamics of Trans-Neptunian Objects Perturbed by Planet Nine

Observations of clustering among the orbits of the most distant trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) has inspired interest in the possibility of an undiscovered ninth planet lurking in the outskirts of the solar system. Numerical simulations by a number of authors have demonstrated that, with appropriate choices of planet mass and orbit, such a planet can maintain clustering in the orbital elements of the population of distant TNOs, similar to the observed sample. However, many aspects of the rich underlying dynamical processes induced by such a distant eccentric perturber have not been fully explored. We report the results of our investigation of the dynamics of coplanar test-particles that interact with a massive body on an circular orbit (Neptune) and a massive body on a more distant, highly eccentric orbit (the putative Planet Nine). We find that a detailed examination of our idealized simulations affords tremendous insight into the rich test-particle dynamics that are possible. In particular, we find that chaos and resonance overlap plays an important role in particles' dynamical evolution. We develop a simple mapping model that allows us to understand, in detail, the web of overlapped mean-motion resonances explored by chaotically evolving particles. We also demonstrate that gravitational interactions with Neptune can have profound effects on the orbital evolution of particles. Our results serve as a starting point for a better understanding of the dynamical behavior observed in more complicated simulations that can be used to constrain the mass and orbit of Planet 9.

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arXiv2018

Large Synoptic Survey Telescope Solar System Science Roadmap

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) is uniquely equipped to search for Solar System bodies due to its unprecedented combination of depth and wide field coverage. Over a ten-year period starting in 2022, LSST will generate the largest catalog of Solar System objects to date. The main goal of the LSST Solar System Science Collaboration (SSSC) is to facilitate the efforts of the planetary community to study the planets and small body populations residing within our Solar System using LSST data. To prepare for future survey cadence decisions and ensure that interesting and novel Solar System science is achievable with LSST, the SSSC has identified and prioritized key Solar System research areas for investigation with LSST in this roadmap. The ranked science priorities highlighted in this living document will inform LSST survey cadence decisions and aid in identifying software tools and pipelines needed to be developed by the planetary community as added value products and resources before the planned start of LSST science operations.

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arXiv2017

A dwarf planet class object in the 21:5 resonance with Neptune

We report the discovery of a $H_r = 3.4\pm0.1$ dwarf planet candidate by the Pan-STARRS Outer Solar System Survey. 2010 JO$_{179}$ is red with $(g-r)=0.88 \pm 0.21$, roughly round, and slowly rotating, with a period of $30.6$ hr. Estimates of its albedo imply a diameter of 600--900~km. Observations sampling the span between 2005--2016 provide an exceptionally well-determined orbit for 2010 JO$_{179}$, with a semi-major axis of $78.307\pm0.009$ au, distant orbits known to this precision are rare. We find that 2010 JO$_{179}$ librates securely within the 21:5 mean-motion resonance with Neptune on hundred-megayear time scales, joining the small but growing set of known distant dwarf planets on metastable resonant orbits. These imply a substantial trans-Neptunian population that shifts between stability in high-order resonances, the detached population, and the eroding population of the scattering disk.

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arXiv2017

The Apparently Decaying Orbit of WASP-12

We present new transit and occultation times for the hot Jupiter WASP-12b. The data are compatible with a constant period derivative: $\dot{P}=-29 \pm 3$ ms yr$^{-1}$ and $P/\dot{P}= 3.2$ Myr. However, it is difficult to tell whether we have observed orbital decay, or a portion of a 14-year apsidal precession cycle. If interpreted as decay, the star's tidal quality parameter $Q_\star$ is about $2\times 10^5$. If interpreted as precession, the planet's Love number is $0.44\pm 0.10$. Orbital decay appears to be the more parsimonious model: it is favored by $Δχ^2=5.5$ despite having two fewer free parameters than the precession model. The decay model implies that WASP-12 was discovered within the final $\sim$0.2% of its existence, which is an unlikely coincidence but harmonizes with independent evidence that the planet is nearing disruption. Precession does not invoke any temporal coincidence, but does require some mechanism to maintain an eccentricity of $\approx$0.002 in the face of rapid tidal circularization. To distinguish unequivocally between decay and precession will probably require a few more years of monitoring. Particularly helpful will be occultation timing in 2019 and thereafter.

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arXiv2016

The Fate of Exomoons in White Dwarf Planetary Systems

Roughly 1000 white dwarfs are known to be polluted with planetary material, and the progenitors of this material are typically assumed to be asteroids. The dynamical architectures which perturb asteroids into white dwarfs are still unknown, but may be crucially dependent on moons liberated from parent planets during post-main-sequence gravitational scattering. Here, we trace the fate of these exomoons, and show that they more easily achieve deep radial incursions towards the white dwarf than do scattered planets. Consequently, moons are likely to play a significant role in white dwarf pollution, and in some cases may be the progenitors of the pollution itself.

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arXiv2016

The Pan-STARRS 1 Discoveries of five new Neptune Trojans

In this work we report the detection of seven Neptune Trojans (NTs) in the Pan-STARRS 1 (PS1) survey. Five of these are new discoveries, consisting of four L4 Trojans and one L5 Trojan. Our orbital simulations show that the L5 Trojan stably librates for only several million years. This suggests that the L5 Trojan must be of recent capture origin. On the other hand, all four new L4 Trojans stably occupy the 1:1 resonance with Neptune for more than 1 Gyr. They can, therefore, be of primordial origin. Our survey simulation results show that the inclination width of the Neptune Trojan population should be between $7^{\circ}$ and $27^{\circ}$ at $>$ 95% confidence, and most likely $\sim 11^{\circ}$. In this paper, we describe the PS1 survey, the Outer Solar System pipeline, the confirming observations, and the orbital/physical properties of the new Neptune Trojans.

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arXiv2016

Uncovering Circumbinary Planetary Architectural Properties from Selection Biases

The new discoveries of circumbinary planetary systems shed light on the understanding of planetary system formation. Learning the architectural properties of these systems is essential for constraining the different formation mechanisms. We first revisit the stability limit of circumbinary planets. Next, we focus on eclipsing stellar binaries and obtain an analytical expression for the transit probability in a realistic setting, where finite observation period and planetary orbital precession are included. Then, understanding of the architectural properties of the currently observed transiting systems is refined, based on Bayesian analysis and a series of hypothesis tests. We find 1) it is not a selection bias that the innermost planets reside near the stability limit for eight of the nine observed systems, and this is consistent with a log uniform distribution of the planetary semi-major axis; 2) it is not a selection bias that the planetary and stellar orbits are nearly coplanar ($\lesssim 3^\circ$), and this together with previous studies may imply an occurrence rate of circumbinary planets similar to that of single star systems; 3) the dominance of observed circumbinary systems with only one transiting planet may be caused by selection effects; 4) formation mechanisms involving Lidov-Kozai oscillations, which may produce misalignment and large separation between planet and stellar binaries, are consistent with the lack of transiting circumbinary planets around short-period stellar binaries, in agreement with previous studies. As a consequence of 4), eclipse timing variations may better suit the detection of planets in such configurations.

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arXiv2016

Discovery of A New Retrograde Trans-Neptunian Object: Hint of A Common Orbital Plane for Low Semi-Major Axis, High Inclination TNOs and Centaurs

Although the majority of Centaurs are thought to have originated in the scattered disk, with the high-inclination members coming from the Oort cloud, the origin of the high inclination component of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) remains uncertain. We report the discovery of a retrograde TNO, which we nickname "Niku", detected by the Pan-STARRS 1 Outer Solar System Survey. Our numerical integrations show that the orbital dynamics of Niku are very similar to that of 2008 KV$_{42}$ (Drac), with a half-life of $\sim 500$ Myr. Comparing similar high inclination TNOs and Centaurs ($q > 10$ AU, $a < 100$ AU and $i > 60^\circ$), we find that these objects exhibit a surprising clustering of ascending node, and occupy a common orbital plane. This orbital configuration has high statistical significance: 3.8-$σ$. An unknown mechanism is required to explain the observed clustering. This discovery may provide a pathway to investigate a possible reservoir of high-inclination objects.

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arXiv2016

A Dynamical Analysis of the Kepler-80 System of Five Transiting Planets

Kepler has discovered hundreds of systems with multiple transiting exoplanets which hold tremendous potential both individually and collectively for understanding the formation and evolution of planetary systems. Many of these systems consist of multiple small planets with periods less than ~50 days known as Systems with Tightly-spaced Inner Planets, or STIPs. One especially intriguing STIP, Kepler-80 (KOI-500), contains five transiting planets: f, d, e, b, and c with periods of 1.0, 3.1, 4.6, 7.1, 9.5 days, respectively. We provide measurements of transit times and a transit timing variation (TTV) dynamical analysis. We find that TTVs cannot reliably detect eccentricities for this system, though mass estimates are not affected. Restricting the eccentricity to a reasonable range, we infer masses for the outer four planets (d, e, b, and c) to be $6.75^{+0.69}_{-0.51}$, $4.13^{+0.81}_{-0.95}$, $6.93^{+1.05}_{-0.70}$, and $6.74^{+1.23}_{-0.86}$ Earth masses, respectively. The similar masses but different radii are consistent with terrestrial compositions for d and e and $\sim$2% H/He envelopes for b and c. We confirm that the outer four planets are in a rare dynamical configuration with four interconnected three-body resonances that are librating with few degree amplitudes. We present a formation model that can reproduce the observed configuration by starting with a multi-resonant chain and introducing dissipation. Overall, the information-rich Kepler-80 planets provide an important perspective into exoplanetary systems.

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arXiv2016

Observational Constraints on Planet Nine: Cassini Range Observations

We significantly constrain the sky position, distance, and mass of a possible additional, distant planet in the solar system by examining its influence on the distance between Earth and the Cassini Spacecraft. Our preferred region is approximately centered on (RA, Dec) = ($40\arcdeg$, $-15\arcdeg$), extending approximately 20 degrees in all directions.

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arXiv2016

Liberating exomoons in white dwarf planetary systems

Previous studies indicate that more than a quarter of all white dwarf (WD) atmospheres are polluted by remnant planetary material, with some WDs being observed to accrete the mass of Pluto in 10^6 years. The short sinking timescale for the pollutants indicate that the material must be frequently replenished. Moons may contribute decisively to this pollution process if they are liberated from their parent planets during the post-main-sequence evolution of the planetary systems. Here, we demonstrate that gravitational scattering events among planets in WD systems easily triggers moon ejection. Repeated close encounters within tenths of a planetary Hill radii are highly destructive to even the most massive, close-in moons. Consequently, scattering increases both the frequency of perturbing agents in WD systems, as well as the available mass of polluting material in those systems, thereby enhancing opportunities for collision and fragmentation and providing more dynamical pathways for smaller bodies to reach the WD. Moreover, during intense scattering, planets themselves have pericenters with respect to the WD of only a fraction of an AU, causing extreme Hill-sphere contraction, and the liberation of moons into WD-grazing orbits. Many of our results are directly applicable to exomoons orbiting planets around main sequence stars.

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